- 大洋
142 Posts
- 大洋
x：@Anchornode 一个撸毛的中年大叔 欢迎交流更多学习内容 所有内容均不构成投资建议
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Brothers, this week is really lively—messages are flying everywhere.
Huang Mao is proposing to impose a new $100,000 fee on H-1B workers employed in the United States.
The U.S. Treasury has outlined potential secondary sanctions for five industries, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping; it will pause general licenses for certain transfers to Iran.
Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada also fell apart at the last moment.
Japan’s central bank’s core inflation indicator is above target, supporting expectations for a rate hike in September.
Bessent says the Treasury bond buyback has not yet started, and the market is questioning the consistency of policy signals.
From the news flow, this doesn’t seem to be anything good.
Tomorrow, <$NVDA >’s earnings report will also be released.
On Wednesday 08/26: Nvidia Q2 FY2027 earnings (after the close in U.S. Eastern Time; early Thursday Beijing time). Expectations: revenue $91B; Q3 guidance $104B. | Impact: extremely high (AI narrative as a full-scale test; Vera Rubin’s ramp-up cadence).
Tomorrow night: Nvidia earnings ($91B delivered + $104B Q3 guidance) will be the first bomb; then comes Jackson Hole (Warsh’s debut) and Friday’s PCE.
Before and after the meetings, remember to keep positions light.
The above are my personal trading notes and do not constitute any investment advice.
Huang Mao is proposing to impose a new $100,000 fee on H-1B workers employed in the United States.
The U.S. Treasury has outlined potential secondary sanctions for five industries, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping; it will pause general licenses for certain transfers to Iran.
Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada also fell apart at the last moment.
Japan’s central bank’s core inflation indicator is above target, supporting expectations for a rate hike in September.
Bessent says the Treasury bond buyback has not yet started, and the market is questioning the consistency of policy signals.
From the news flow, this doesn’t seem to be anything good.
Tomorrow, <$NVDA >’s earnings report will also be released.
On Wednesday 08/26: Nvidia Q2 FY2027 earnings (after the close in U.S. Eastern Time; early Thursday Beijing time). Expectations: revenue $91B; Q3 guidance $104B. | Impact: extremely high (AI narrative as a full-scale test; Vera Rubin’s ramp-up cadence).
Tomorrow night: Nvidia earnings ($91B delivered + $104B Q3 guidance) will be the first bomb; then comes Jackson Hole (Warsh’s debut) and Friday’s PCE.
Before and after the meetings, remember to keep positions light.
The above are my personal trading notes and do not constitute any investment advice.
Brothers, first-hand news. As the casino, we have been waiting for @HertzFlow ’s summer gift box.
Thank you all, the casino brothers, for your guidance and help these past two months. There are no words to express my gratitude.
“I have a dream”—may all the brothers of the casino become MM.
We’re just waiting for the mainnet so we can go in and become the casino.
So what exactly is this mysterious gift, @thecryptoskanda_ ? Hahahahahaha
@HertzFlow
Thank you all, the casino brothers, for your guidance and help these past two months. There are no words to express my gratitude.
“I have a dream”—may all the brothers of the casino become MM.
We’re just waiting for the mainnet so we can go in and become the casino.
So what exactly is this mysterious gift, @thecryptoskanda_ ? Hahahahahaha
@HertzFlow
Today’s key events
· Wed 08/05 Beijing time 20:15 | ADP Employment (July) | Forecast: 150-180K | Impact: Medium
· Wed 08/05 Beijing time 22:00 | ISM Services PMI (July) | Forecast: 53-54 | Impact: High
Monday’s ISM Manufacturing beat by 55.6. Services make up 70% of GDP and carry a higher weight.
Note: If the ISM Services price sub-index spikes → a stagflation trade → pressure on growth stocks
Yesterday’s feedback
· JOLTS: June job openings fell to 7.359M, below the forecast of 7.44M and the prior value of 7.594M (revised). It’s the second consecutive month of decline (May 7.594M → June 7.359M, -235K). The job openings rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4%. Overall, it shows a gentle cooling rather than a sharp deterioration.
· The market interpreted the JOLTS miss as a clear positive. Logic chain: labor cooling → wage pressure easing → inflation trending lower → Fed rate-cut room opens up → discount rates for growth stocks fall → tech stocks benefit.
After the earnings of AMD and SPACEX, both fell about 8% in after-hours trading.
AMD revenue +52% YoY, data center doubled, and the Q3 guidance also beat expectations.
There are only two reasons
① GAAP gross margin is 54%, missing by 2 percentage points. Market expected 56%, actual 54%.
MI450 shipments are imminent. In the early stage of mass production of the new architecture, the initial costs are high. Lisa Su and the CFO had already warned that the Helios ramp would compress margins.
② It was already up 7.7% pre-market.
AMD jumped from $460 to $513 pre-market.
It’s as if the market had already bought the pricing up front, and then you turned in a very good but not perfect exam.
Also, AMD’s valuation is 53x forward PE. NVDA is only 20x, and AVGO is only 25x.
SpaceX revenue +92% YoY, crushing expectations.
Last night’s earnings weren’t bad by themselves.
The first risk: the lock-up expires on Aug 6.
911,500,000 shares become unencumbered; at the current price, that’s $110 billion worth of potential selling pressure.
Early employees, VC, and pre-IPO investors waited for over a decade—cost could be just a few dollars, even a few tens of cents. If it were you, would you sell or not?
The second risk: burn rate speed.
Capex is $18.4B in a single quarter. That’s a pace of $70B+ per year.
Starlink is profitable (Q2 connectivity is the only profitable segment), but the AI business (xAI) is still losing $2B+ every quarter. The money they earn can’t keep up with what they’re burning.
The third risk: the valuation “faith” is unraveling.
At IPO: $1.77T valuation, 94x sales multiple. Now: $1.4T, still 73x sales multiple.
· Wed 08/05 Beijing time 20:15 | ADP Employment (July) | Forecast: 150-180K | Impact: Medium
· Wed 08/05 Beijing time 22:00 | ISM Services PMI (July) | Forecast: 53-54 | Impact: High
Monday’s ISM Manufacturing beat by 55.6. Services make up 70% of GDP and carry a higher weight.
Note: If the ISM Services price sub-index spikes → a stagflation trade → pressure on growth stocks
Yesterday’s feedback
· JOLTS: June job openings fell to 7.359M, below the forecast of 7.44M and the prior value of 7.594M (revised). It’s the second consecutive month of decline (May 7.594M → June 7.359M, -235K). The job openings rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4%. Overall, it shows a gentle cooling rather than a sharp deterioration.
· The market interpreted the JOLTS miss as a clear positive. Logic chain: labor cooling → wage pressure easing → inflation trending lower → Fed rate-cut room opens up → discount rates for growth stocks fall → tech stocks benefit.
After the earnings of AMD and SPACEX, both fell about 8% in after-hours trading.
AMD revenue +52% YoY, data center doubled, and the Q3 guidance also beat expectations.
There are only two reasons
① GAAP gross margin is 54%, missing by 2 percentage points. Market expected 56%, actual 54%.
MI450 shipments are imminent. In the early stage of mass production of the new architecture, the initial costs are high. Lisa Su and the CFO had already warned that the Helios ramp would compress margins.
② It was already up 7.7% pre-market.
AMD jumped from $460 to $513 pre-market.
It’s as if the market had already bought the pricing up front, and then you turned in a very good but not perfect exam.
Also, AMD’s valuation is 53x forward PE. NVDA is only 20x, and AVGO is only 25x.
SpaceX revenue +92% YoY, crushing expectations.
Last night’s earnings weren’t bad by themselves.
The first risk: the lock-up expires on Aug 6.
911,500,000 shares become unencumbered; at the current price, that’s $110 billion worth of potential selling pressure.
Early employees, VC, and pre-IPO investors waited for over a decade—cost could be just a few dollars, even a few tens of cents. If it were you, would you sell or not?
The second risk: burn rate speed.
Capex is $18.4B in a single quarter. That’s a pace of $70B+ per year.
Starlink is profitable (Q2 connectivity is the only profitable segment), but the AI business (xAI) is still losing $2B+ every quarter. The money they earn can’t keep up with what they’re burning.
The third risk: the valuation “faith” is unraveling.
At IPO: $1.77T valuation, 94x sales multiple. Now: $1.4T, still 73x sales multiple.
Partly True
Brothers, first-hand news: @HertzFlow is preparing for the mainnet.
Yesterday, we already reset the data.
Invite points will be kept until the mainnet.
---
1/ Why the points are preserved
To be frank, a lot of projects wipe everything right before going live on the mainnet. On the testnet, no matter how much you farmed or how many invites you got, it all disappears.
HertzFlow doesn’t do that.
Inviting is something you helped us with in the early days.
You did it—we remember.
That’s it, that’s all.
2/ The big logic behind the final incentives will be announced
We won’t wait until the last moment to publish a rule and make you guess.
Anything we can confirm, we’ll announce directly.
For example, how points will be converted, the timing rhythm for distributing incentives, and whether there’s any lock-up—will all be written clearly in black and white.
If we can’t confirm something, we’ll say so plainly.
We won’t make up an answer that looks perfect just to placate people.
---
Now that you’re here, your contribution will be recognized.
Real, tangible, no fluff.
---
In the next few days, you’ll see the announcements.
They’ll include terms that can be fully confirmed, as well as parts that are clearly marked as updates to come.
Don’t overestimate your own certainty, and don’t underestimate users’ judgment.
We’ll publish the final points distribution and the overall logic for final incentives. Anything we can confirm will be announced; anything we can’t confirm, we’ll clearly tell everyone that we don’t know yet. This is @thecrypto’s exact wording. I really like this kind of reassuring response and this kind of project.
So I’ll keep playing the testnet.
See you in early August.
@HertzFlow
Yesterday, we already reset the data.
Invite points will be kept until the mainnet.
---
1/ Why the points are preserved
To be frank, a lot of projects wipe everything right before going live on the mainnet. On the testnet, no matter how much you farmed or how many invites you got, it all disappears.
HertzFlow doesn’t do that.
Inviting is something you helped us with in the early days.
You did it—we remember.
That’s it, that’s all.
2/ The big logic behind the final incentives will be announced
We won’t wait until the last moment to publish a rule and make you guess.
Anything we can confirm, we’ll announce directly.
For example, how points will be converted, the timing rhythm for distributing incentives, and whether there’s any lock-up—will all be written clearly in black and white.
If we can’t confirm something, we’ll say so plainly.
We won’t make up an answer that looks perfect just to placate people.
---
Now that you’re here, your contribution will be recognized.
Real, tangible, no fluff.
---
In the next few days, you’ll see the announcements.
They’ll include terms that can be fully confirmed, as well as parts that are clearly marked as updates to come.
Don’t overestimate your own certainty, and don’t underestimate users’ judgment.
We’ll publish the final points distribution and the overall logic for final incentives. Anything we can confirm will be announced; anything we can’t confirm, we’ll clearly tell everyone that we don’t know yet. This is @thecrypto’s exact wording. I really like this kind of reassuring response and this kind of project.
So I’ll keep playing the testnet.
See you in early August.
@HertzFlow
- 大洋
·
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What if the market-maker were there on day 519 too
Brothers, last night the US stock market crashed hard, and the after-hours session this morning and the night session also saw a massive plunge. SanDisk almost broke below 1. KOSPI briefly hit a circuit breaker down 11%. It made me think of the day of 519, and I went back to re-read what the market-maker wrote about 519.
I thought about it: if on the day of 519, this gambling match were on @HertzFlow , what would it look like?
1/
On that day of 519, almost all CEXs went down.
Binance, OKX, FTX (it was still alive then), Bybit—everything. Short as a few minutes, long as half an hour.
Back then, you were holding your phone, watching the price get smashed through by forced liquidations. You couldn’t even add margin to top it up.
What if, that day, the betting table had been on HertzFlow, on the BNB chain—what would happen?
I thought about it: if on the day of 519, this gambling match were on @HertzFlow , what would it look like?
1/
On that day of 519, almost all CEXs went down.
Binance, OKX, FTX (it was still alive then), Bybit—everything. Short as a few minutes, long as half an hour.
Back then, you were holding your phone, watching the price get smashed through by forced liquidations. You couldn’t even add margin to top it up.
What if, that day, the betting table had been on HertzFlow, on the BNB chain—what would happen?
Today, one chart to help you understand the FOMC statement
All earnings reports are meaningless in front of the FOMC. Even if earnings are great, they can’t break out of an independent trading trend. I can only say that this month’s market is for software stocks. Everyone, go take a look. And remember to diversify sectors—keep the “supermarket” open—your capital will be safer.
There’s another important thing: this time, there were 3 votes in favor of a rate hike. Everyone should pay attention—at the September FOMC, a rate hike is highly likely.
Key events for the rest of this week:
· Thursday 07/30 Beijing time 20:30 | GDP Q2 first estimate + June core PCE | Forecast: GDP around 2.0%, core PCE around 3.4% | Impact: Very high (the most important data of the week)
· Thursday 07/30 after market close | AAPL Q3 FY2026 earnings | Forecast: revenue growth 14–17% YoY | Impact: Very high (Cook’s last CEO earnings report + MacBook Neo supply data)
· Friday 07/31 Beijing time 20:30 | Initial jobless claims + University of Michigan consumer sentiment July final | Forecast: claims remain at a low level | Impact: Medium
GDP + PCE + AAPL—triple blasts on the same day. If GDP is below 2% → the probability of rate cuts spikes → growth stocks rebound. If PCE unexpectedly rises → growth stocks face renewed pressure. AAPL’s earnings are the last long stronghold among Mag7. If it misses, the already fragile sentiment after the FOMC will take another hit.
Yesterday’s feedback
· The FOMC held steady and kept the interest rate at 3.50–3.75%. A split Federal Reserve (3 votes supported a rate hike). Warsh clearly stated he would not waver in the face of inflation.
Market reaction: SOX -5.33% (yesterday’s projection: “If hawkish → SOX tests 10,500.” The actual close was 10,447; the forecast was accurate). All three major indices fell across the board. The VIX broke above 20. The Nasdaq 100 entered a correction range. The split FOMC was more hawkish than expected.
SOX’s four-day decline of -10% has already deeply priced in hawkishness. With technical oversold conditions plus a data day, two-way volatility will be intense. Don’t chase shorts or bottom-pick—wait until GDP + PCE land, then decide direction. VIX > 20 + a data day = cash is king.
#USStocks #TradingNotes
The above is my personal trading journal and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky—invest cautiously.
All earnings reports are meaningless in front of the FOMC. Even if earnings are great, they can’t break out of an independent trading trend. I can only say that this month’s market is for software stocks. Everyone, go take a look. And remember to diversify sectors—keep the “supermarket” open—your capital will be safer.
There’s another important thing: this time, there were 3 votes in favor of a rate hike. Everyone should pay attention—at the September FOMC, a rate hike is highly likely.
Key events for the rest of this week:
· Thursday 07/30 Beijing time 20:30 | GDP Q2 first estimate + June core PCE | Forecast: GDP around 2.0%, core PCE around 3.4% | Impact: Very high (the most important data of the week)
· Thursday 07/30 after market close | AAPL Q3 FY2026 earnings | Forecast: revenue growth 14–17% YoY | Impact: Very high (Cook’s last CEO earnings report + MacBook Neo supply data)
· Friday 07/31 Beijing time 20:30 | Initial jobless claims + University of Michigan consumer sentiment July final | Forecast: claims remain at a low level | Impact: Medium
GDP + PCE + AAPL—triple blasts on the same day. If GDP is below 2% → the probability of rate cuts spikes → growth stocks rebound. If PCE unexpectedly rises → growth stocks face renewed pressure. AAPL’s earnings are the last long stronghold among Mag7. If it misses, the already fragile sentiment after the FOMC will take another hit.
Yesterday’s feedback
· The FOMC held steady and kept the interest rate at 3.50–3.75%. A split Federal Reserve (3 votes supported a rate hike). Warsh clearly stated he would not waver in the face of inflation.
Market reaction: SOX -5.33% (yesterday’s projection: “If hawkish → SOX tests 10,500.” The actual close was 10,447; the forecast was accurate). All three major indices fell across the board. The VIX broke above 20. The Nasdaq 100 entered a correction range. The split FOMC was more hawkish than expected.
SOX’s four-day decline of -10% has already deeply priced in hawkishness. With technical oversold conditions plus a data day, two-way volatility will be intense. Don’t chase shorts or bottom-pick—wait until GDP + PCE land, then decide direction. VIX > 20 + a data day = cash is king.
#USStocks #TradingNotes
The above is my personal trading journal and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky—invest cautiously.
- 大洋
·
--
Woke up to find the whole market had collapsed—today’s lunch really tasted like cardboard.
This week is the most important trading week of 2026 Q3. Triple “nuclear-level” events stacked together.
· Tue–Wed 07/28–29 | FOMC meeting | Expected: keep 3.50–3.75% unchanged (probability ~65%) | Impact: extremely high
Warsh is chairing the full quarterly FOMC for the first time. Watch the wording of the statement (inflation vs. data-dependence), the dot plot, and the tone of the press conference.
The U.S. halts airstrikes on Iran → ceasefire talks restart → WTI plunges 6.9% to $83 → USO -8.73%. This is a geopolitical pivot that was not anticipated in the outlook, directly driving a rotation: the energy sector -2.11% and discretionary consumption +1.31%.
Key signals
· NVDA -5% over three days, down -10% total: with volume at 144 million shares, panic selling; the $200 level is breached
· Iran ceasefire → WTI crashes from $100+ to $83: USO -8.73% in a single day, the largest daily drop of the year
· IGV +3.33% vs SOX -2.23%: AI trading has moved fully from hardware to software; capital is “voting with its feet.”
Keep exposure below 50%, save ammunition for Thursday’s confirmation after GDP + PCE + AAPL.
#USStocks
This week is the most important trading week of 2026 Q3. Triple “nuclear-level” events stacked together.
· Tue–Wed 07/28–29 | FOMC meeting | Expected: keep 3.50–3.75% unchanged (probability ~65%) | Impact: extremely high
Warsh is chairing the full quarterly FOMC for the first time. Watch the wording of the statement (inflation vs. data-dependence), the dot plot, and the tone of the press conference.
The U.S. halts airstrikes on Iran → ceasefire talks restart → WTI plunges 6.9% to $83 → USO -8.73%. This is a geopolitical pivot that was not anticipated in the outlook, directly driving a rotation: the energy sector -2.11% and discretionary consumption +1.31%.
Key signals
· NVDA -5% over three days, down -10% total: with volume at 144 million shares, panic selling; the $200 level is breached
· Iran ceasefire → WTI crashes from $100+ to $83: USO -8.73% in a single day, the largest daily drop of the year
· IGV +3.33% vs SOX -2.23%: AI trading has moved fully from hardware to software; capital is “voting with its feet.”
Keep exposure below 50%, save ammunition for Thursday’s confirmation after GDP + PCE + AAPL.
#USStocks
Verifying my Binance Square account for YZi Labs Amplify via EchoHunt: EH-APVQ7P
Woke up to find the whole market had collapsed—today’s lunch really tasted like cardboard.
This week is the most important trading week of 2026 Q3. Triple “nuclear-level” events stacked together.
· Tue–Wed 07/28–29 | FOMC meeting | Expected: keep 3.50–3.75% unchanged (probability ~65%) | Impact: extremely high
Warsh is chairing the full quarterly FOMC for the first time. Watch the wording of the statement (inflation vs. data-dependence), the dot plot, and the tone of the press conference.
The U.S. halts airstrikes on Iran → ceasefire talks restart → WTI plunges 6.9% to $83 → USO -8.73%. This is a geopolitical pivot that was not anticipated in the outlook, directly driving a rotation: the energy sector -2.11% and discretionary consumption +1.31%.
Key signals
· NVDA -5% over three days, down -10% total: with volume at 144 million shares, panic selling; the $200 level is breached
· Iran ceasefire → WTI crashes from $100+ to $83: USO -8.73% in a single day, the largest daily drop of the year
· IGV +3.33% vs SOX -2.23%: AI trading has moved fully from hardware to software; capital is “voting with its feet.”
Keep exposure below 50%, save ammunition for Thursday’s confirmation after GDP + PCE + AAPL.
#USStocks
This week is the most important trading week of 2026 Q3. Triple “nuclear-level” events stacked together.
· Tue–Wed 07/28–29 | FOMC meeting | Expected: keep 3.50–3.75% unchanged (probability ~65%) | Impact: extremely high
Warsh is chairing the full quarterly FOMC for the first time. Watch the wording of the statement (inflation vs. data-dependence), the dot plot, and the tone of the press conference.
The U.S. halts airstrikes on Iran → ceasefire talks restart → WTI plunges 6.9% to $83 → USO -8.73%. This is a geopolitical pivot that was not anticipated in the outlook, directly driving a rotation: the energy sector -2.11% and discretionary consumption +1.31%.
Key signals
· NVDA -5% over three days, down -10% total: with volume at 144 million shares, panic selling; the $200 level is breached
· Iran ceasefire → WTI crashes from $100+ to $83: USO -8.73% in a single day, the largest daily drop of the year
· IGV +3.33% vs SOX -2.23%: AI trading has moved fully from hardware to software; capital is “voting with its feet.”
Keep exposure below 50%, save ammunition for Thursday’s confirmation after GDP + PCE + AAPL.
#USStocks
Today’s events:
U.S. leading economic indicators for June | expected unchanged | impact: medium
China PBoC LPR interest rate decision | expected to keep 3.00% unchanged | impact: medium
Ongoing | Iran Hormuz crisis + oil price direction | WTI $83.7+; if it breaks above $85 → the stagflation narrative fully returns | impact: very high
Triple uncertainties make it unsuitable to add new positions:
1) SOX has entered a technical bear market (from the ATH 14,635 down more than 20% to 11,673); the downtrend is not over
2) The Iran Hormuz crisis has pushed WTI to $81+; geopolitical risk premium is hard to price
3) This week’s earnings for four major tech giants—TSLA / GOOGL / INTC / IBM—are tightly packed; any miss could trigger the second wave of chip sell-off
July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index + inflation expectations
Sentiment 54.4 (five-month high, well above the expected 50–52); 1-year inflation expectations edged down to 3.3% due to a decline in gasoline prices during the survey window
Tuesday after the close: TSLA + GOOGL earnings. Wednesday: INTC + IBM take the baton. Thursday: Flash PMI + initial jobless claims. AMD AI conference—Lisa Su presents the MI400 roadmap, debuting mid-week.
#USStocks #TradingNotes
The above is personal trading notes and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risk; investment requires caution. Please comply with local laws and regulations.
U.S. leading economic indicators for June | expected unchanged | impact: medium
China PBoC LPR interest rate decision | expected to keep 3.00% unchanged | impact: medium
Ongoing | Iran Hormuz crisis + oil price direction | WTI $83.7+; if it breaks above $85 → the stagflation narrative fully returns | impact: very high
Triple uncertainties make it unsuitable to add new positions:
1) SOX has entered a technical bear market (from the ATH 14,635 down more than 20% to 11,673); the downtrend is not over
2) The Iran Hormuz crisis has pushed WTI to $81+; geopolitical risk premium is hard to price
3) This week’s earnings for four major tech giants—TSLA / GOOGL / INTC / IBM—are tightly packed; any miss could trigger the second wave of chip sell-off
July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index + inflation expectations
Sentiment 54.4 (five-month high, well above the expected 50–52); 1-year inflation expectations edged down to 3.3% due to a decline in gasoline prices during the survey window
Tuesday after the close: TSLA + GOOGL earnings. Wednesday: INTC + IBM take the baton. Thursday: Flash PMI + initial jobless claims. AMD AI conference—Lisa Su presents the MI400 roadmap, debuting mid-week.
#USStocks #TradingNotes
The above is personal trading notes and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risk; investment requires caution. Please comply with local laws and regulations.
- 大洋
·
--
Two bad news, one is that last night the US stock market’s early session saw a rebound, but the afternoon saw another pullback. Total bait-and-switch.
The other is that Changxin’s subscription didn’t get a winning lot. Hahaha.
The key focus is next Thursday: the last full trading week before the FOMC (7/29-30). If the PMI shows economic resilience on 7/24, but you’re positioning over the weekend to bet on this direction, the risk is extremely high.
No clear ETF recommendation today—stand by.
Yesterday’s feedback
Next up:
· Weekend Iran news—any diplomatic breakthrough could cause Monday oil prices to crash by 10%+ and reverse rate-cut expectations
· Thursday Initial Jobless Claims: if it’s again below 220,000, the hawkish narrative ahead of the FOMC will be locked in
· Friday Flash PMI—final growth data before the FOMC. If resilience is strong, chips will continue to face pressure
· FOMC 7/29-30: market pricing for a September rate cut has already pulled back significantly. Warsh is likely to remain hawkish
Personally, I lean toward waiting for direction confirmation at the open on Monday, rather than gambling on weekend news. Three scenarios: Iran diplomatic breakthrough → oil price plunges → rate-cut expectations repaired → higher open on Monday (prob. ~25%); Iran standoff → oil price steady → flat or slightly down open and sell-off on Monday (prob. ~45%); Iran escalation → oil price surges above $85 → full risk-off (prob. ~30%).
No matter which scenario, Monday offers a better entry point.
The above is my personal trading notes and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky—invest cautiously.
#US stocks #交易笔记
The other is that Changxin’s subscription didn’t get a winning lot. Hahaha.
The key focus is next Thursday: the last full trading week before the FOMC (7/29-30). If the PMI shows economic resilience on 7/24, but you’re positioning over the weekend to bet on this direction, the risk is extremely high.
No clear ETF recommendation today—stand by.
Yesterday’s feedback
Next up:
· Weekend Iran news—any diplomatic breakthrough could cause Monday oil prices to crash by 10%+ and reverse rate-cut expectations
· Thursday Initial Jobless Claims: if it’s again below 220,000, the hawkish narrative ahead of the FOMC will be locked in
· Friday Flash PMI—final growth data before the FOMC. If resilience is strong, chips will continue to face pressure
· FOMC 7/29-30: market pricing for a September rate cut has already pulled back significantly. Warsh is likely to remain hawkish
Personally, I lean toward waiting for direction confirmation at the open on Monday, rather than gambling on weekend news. Three scenarios: Iran diplomatic breakthrough → oil price plunges → rate-cut expectations repaired → higher open on Monday (prob. ~25%); Iran standoff → oil price steady → flat or slightly down open and sell-off on Monday (prob. ~45%); Iran escalation → oil price surges above $85 → full risk-off (prob. ~30%).
No matter which scenario, Monday offers a better entry point.
The above is my personal trading notes and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky—invest cautiously.
#US stocks #交易笔记
Key Events
· Thursday 07/16 Beijing time 20:30 | June retail sales + initial jobless claims + Philadelphia Fed manufacturing | Retail MoM +0.1–0.3%, initial claims about 220–230k | Impact: Extremely High
Key focus: Soft CPI and PPI (both) have pushed rate-cut expectations to their highest level this year.
Yesterday’s feedback
- PPI headline -0.3% MoM (consensus 0.0%, 14-month largest decline). The forward-looking forecast correctly followed the direction of the sharp CPI drop, but the MoM decline was larger than expected.
· Market reaction: The violent +2.54% rebound in SOX on CPI failed to hold, and SOX -2.08% on the PPI fully reversed. The rate-cut tailwind went to the internet sector.
The above is personal trading notes and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets involve risk; investment requires caution.
· Thursday 07/16 Beijing time 20:30 | June retail sales + initial jobless claims + Philadelphia Fed manufacturing | Retail MoM +0.1–0.3%, initial claims about 220–230k | Impact: Extremely High
Key focus: Soft CPI and PPI (both) have pushed rate-cut expectations to their highest level this year.
Yesterday’s feedback
- PPI headline -0.3% MoM (consensus 0.0%, 14-month largest decline). The forward-looking forecast correctly followed the direction of the sharp CPI drop, but the MoM decline was larger than expected.
· Market reaction: The violent +2.54% rebound in SOX on CPI failed to hold, and SOX -2.08% on the PPI fully reversed. The rate-cut tailwind went to the internet sector.
The above is personal trading notes and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets involve risk; investment requires caution.
- 大洋
·
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Brothers, two things: tomorrow Changxin’s IPO and AI infrastructure.
Tomorrow Changxin’s IPO; New York State pauses approval for new ultra-large-scale data centers.
1/ Changxin Technology (688825.SH)
The issue price is RMB 8.66 per share. The initial number of shares issued is 6.688 billion shares. Changxin is very fixated on the numbers 6 and 8—smooth and favorable, and the qualified accounts, get your money ready to apply for the new shares.
On the first day, the tradable float is extremely small. Around 78% of the total new shares are locked (strategic placement 50% + off-exchange placing 70% restricted for 6 months). Supply and demand are wildly imbalanced.
For retail investors, T+1 has no price fluctuation limit (the first five days in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board) + a tradable float of 6.688 billion shares + the narrative density of the national memory chip champion.
Comparable reference: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) on its Sci-Tech Innovation Board debut in 2020 + 202%, but back then SMIC’s tradable float was far larger than $CXMT.
2/ AI infrastructure
New York State pauses the construction of ultra-large-scale data centers, pausing approvals for new projects; projects already under construction are not affected. This also reflects that incremental capacity is being capped, so the value of existing capacity automatically rises.
Benefits go to existing-permit data center REITs, cloud providers with projects already under construction in New York, power utilities outside New York State, and small modular nuclear reactors (SMR).
This affects the capex-efficiency narrative for pure developers that rely on expanding into new plots, as well as cloud providers’ investment efficiency.
Near-term GPU demand is not affected; the long-term delivery timeline may be misaligned. NVDA’s orders won’t decrease because of this, but compute capacity goes online more slowly. Cloud providers’ depreciation cycle will be extended, and ROIC will worsen.
I think it’s neutral in the short term and slightly positive in the long term.
Wish everyone good luck applying for Changxin’s IPO—may you all get shares!
The above is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice.
Tomorrow Changxin’s IPO; New York State pauses approval for new ultra-large-scale data centers.
1/ Changxin Technology (688825.SH)
The issue price is RMB 8.66 per share. The initial number of shares issued is 6.688 billion shares. Changxin is very fixated on the numbers 6 and 8—smooth and favorable, and the qualified accounts, get your money ready to apply for the new shares.
On the first day, the tradable float is extremely small. Around 78% of the total new shares are locked (strategic placement 50% + off-exchange placing 70% restricted for 6 months). Supply and demand are wildly imbalanced.
For retail investors, T+1 has no price fluctuation limit (the first five days in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board) + a tradable float of 6.688 billion shares + the narrative density of the national memory chip champion.
Comparable reference: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) on its Sci-Tech Innovation Board debut in 2020 + 202%, but back then SMIC’s tradable float was far larger than $CXMT.
2/ AI infrastructure
New York State pauses the construction of ultra-large-scale data centers, pausing approvals for new projects; projects already under construction are not affected. This also reflects that incremental capacity is being capped, so the value of existing capacity automatically rises.
Benefits go to existing-permit data center REITs, cloud providers with projects already under construction in New York, power utilities outside New York State, and small modular nuclear reactors (SMR).
This affects the capex-efficiency narrative for pure developers that rely on expanding into new plots, as well as cloud providers’ investment efficiency.
Near-term GPU demand is not affected; the long-term delivery timeline may be misaligned. NVDA’s orders won’t decrease because of this, but compute capacity goes online more slowly. Cloud providers’ depreciation cycle will be extended, and ROIC will worsen.
I think it’s neutral in the short term and slightly positive in the long term.
Wish everyone good luck applying for Changxin’s IPO—may you all get shares!
The above is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice.
Partly True
Brothers, two things: tomorrow Changxin’s IPO and AI infrastructure.
Tomorrow Changxin’s IPO; New York State pauses approval for new ultra-large-scale data centers.
1/ Changxin Technology (688825.SH)
The issue price is RMB 8.66 per share. The initial number of shares issued is 6.688 billion shares. Changxin is very fixated on the numbers 6 and 8—smooth and favorable, and the qualified accounts, get your money ready to apply for the new shares.
On the first day, the tradable float is extremely small. Around 78% of the total new shares are locked (strategic placement 50% + off-exchange placing 70% restricted for 6 months). Supply and demand are wildly imbalanced.
For retail investors, T+1 has no price fluctuation limit (the first five days in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board) + a tradable float of 6.688 billion shares + the narrative density of the national memory chip champion.
Comparable reference: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) on its Sci-Tech Innovation Board debut in 2020 + 202%, but back then SMIC’s tradable float was far larger than $CXMT.
2/ AI infrastructure
New York State pauses the construction of ultra-large-scale data centers, pausing approvals for new projects; projects already under construction are not affected. This also reflects that incremental capacity is being capped, so the value of existing capacity automatically rises.
Benefits go to existing-permit data center REITs, cloud providers with projects already under construction in New York, power utilities outside New York State, and small modular nuclear reactors (SMR).
This affects the capex-efficiency narrative for pure developers that rely on expanding into new plots, as well as cloud providers’ investment efficiency.
Near-term GPU demand is not affected; the long-term delivery timeline may be misaligned. NVDA’s orders won’t decrease because of this, but compute capacity goes online more slowly. Cloud providers’ depreciation cycle will be extended, and ROIC will worsen.
I think it’s neutral in the short term and slightly positive in the long term.
Wish everyone good luck applying for Changxin’s IPO—may you all get shares!
The above is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice.
Tomorrow Changxin’s IPO; New York State pauses approval for new ultra-large-scale data centers.
1/ Changxin Technology (688825.SH)
The issue price is RMB 8.66 per share. The initial number of shares issued is 6.688 billion shares. Changxin is very fixated on the numbers 6 and 8—smooth and favorable, and the qualified accounts, get your money ready to apply for the new shares.
On the first day, the tradable float is extremely small. Around 78% of the total new shares are locked (strategic placement 50% + off-exchange placing 70% restricted for 6 months). Supply and demand are wildly imbalanced.
For retail investors, T+1 has no price fluctuation limit (the first five days in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board) + a tradable float of 6.688 billion shares + the narrative density of the national memory chip champion.
Comparable reference: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) on its Sci-Tech Innovation Board debut in 2020 + 202%, but back then SMIC’s tradable float was far larger than $CXMT.
2/ AI infrastructure
New York State pauses the construction of ultra-large-scale data centers, pausing approvals for new projects; projects already under construction are not affected. This also reflects that incremental capacity is being capped, so the value of existing capacity automatically rises.
Benefits go to existing-permit data center REITs, cloud providers with projects already under construction in New York, power utilities outside New York State, and small modular nuclear reactors (SMR).
This affects the capex-efficiency narrative for pure developers that rely on expanding into new plots, as well as cloud providers’ investment efficiency.
Near-term GPU demand is not affected; the long-term delivery timeline may be misaligned. NVDA’s orders won’t decrease because of this, but compute capacity goes online more slowly. Cloud providers’ depreciation cycle will be extended, and ROIC will worsen.
I think it’s neutral in the short term and slightly positive in the long term.
Wish everyone good luck applying for Changxin’s IPO—may you all get shares!
The above is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice.
Verified
This Week’s Key Events
This week is a shortened trading week after the Independence Day holiday (U.S. stock market closed on Friday, reopens normally on Monday):
Key Events:
July 6 (Monday):
- ISM Services PMI (June) | Impact: Very high. This is the first major macro data release after the big miss in nonfarm payrolls. Services account for 70%+ of U.S. GDP, and the market will use this to recalibrate recession/soft-landing probabilities.
- S&P Global Services PMI (final) | Impact: Medium
· Wednesday 07/08 | FOMC June meeting minutes + ADP employment | Impact: High (reveals internal disagreement among policymakers on the timing of rate cuts)
· Thursday 07/09 | Initial jobless claims + remarks by Fed officials | Impact: Medium (continues to validate the trend of labor market weakening)
Today: VTV (Vanguard Value ETF)
· Price: $219.17 (close on 7/2)
· Expense ratio: 0.04% (very low)
· Number of holdings: 340
· Nvidia weight: 0% (no NVDA/semiconductors/highly valued tech)
· Coverage: Tracks the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index, spanning the full value spectrum across financials + healthcare + industrials + energy + consumer products
· Market: U.S. equities
· Theme: Value / defensiveness
Dividend Low-Volatility ETF (512890, Harvest/Huat'ai AMC CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF)
· Ticker: 512890
· On-exchange / off-exchange: On-exchange ETF (can be traded in a stock account)
· Tracking index: CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index
· Theme: High dividend + low volatility / defensiveness
· Expense ratio: 0.50%
The above is for personal trading notes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets involve risk; invest with caution.
This week is a shortened trading week after the Independence Day holiday (U.S. stock market closed on Friday, reopens normally on Monday):
Key Events:
July 6 (Monday):
- ISM Services PMI (June) | Impact: Very high. This is the first major macro data release after the big miss in nonfarm payrolls. Services account for 70%+ of U.S. GDP, and the market will use this to recalibrate recession/soft-landing probabilities.
- S&P Global Services PMI (final) | Impact: Medium
· Wednesday 07/08 | FOMC June meeting minutes + ADP employment | Impact: High (reveals internal disagreement among policymakers on the timing of rate cuts)
· Thursday 07/09 | Initial jobless claims + remarks by Fed officials | Impact: Medium (continues to validate the trend of labor market weakening)
Today: VTV (Vanguard Value ETF)
· Price: $219.17 (close on 7/2)
· Expense ratio: 0.04% (very low)
· Number of holdings: 340
· Nvidia weight: 0% (no NVDA/semiconductors/highly valued tech)
· Coverage: Tracks the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index, spanning the full value spectrum across financials + healthcare + industrials + energy + consumer products
· Market: U.S. equities
· Theme: Value / defensiveness
Dividend Low-Volatility ETF (512890, Harvest/Huat'ai AMC CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF)
· Ticker: 512890
· On-exchange / off-exchange: On-exchange ETF (can be traded in a stock account)
· Tracking index: CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index
· Theme: High dividend + low volatility / defensiveness
· Expense ratio: 0.50%
The above is for personal trading notes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets involve risk; invest with caution.
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