Is Bitcoin going to touch $59,000?
Whether today's pullback is due to the 140,000 bitcoins in Mentougou or not, the signs of Bitcoin's daily level pullback are indeed very obvious. If the pullback can be seen as the second step at the daily level, it can also be seen as the second top of the head and shoulders top at the weekly level.
There are no major events in the overall environment now. The recent financial events to pay attention to are: On May 31, the "Fed's favorite inflation indicator" - the US April core PCE price index data will be released. On May 31, the eurozone May reconciled CPI data will be released.
These events are currently mainly causing shocks in the short term.
The main problem is that the Federal Reserve has been unwilling to let go of when to cut interest rates. Some institutions even said that they would raise interest rates twice more. Of course, I personally think that the possibility of raising interest rates again is very low. After all, only by protecting the big will there be a chance to have a small one. In addition, the economic crisis black swan event may now be just the last straw. Now the world is full of bubbles. It depends on who can't hold on and burst first.
Of course, the big bull market will definitely come in the second half of this year. Now all the ups and downs are to clear the way, refuel the rocket, and drive lightly to the moon, so eat well, work hard, and hold on.

Regardless of whether the ETH spot ETF passes or not, there is a high probability that it will fall next. If it passes, it will be a pin. If it fails, it may fall below the starting point.
The biggest basis for what has been said so far is that an analyst from Bloomberg said that because of politicization, the probability of passing was raised from 25% to 75%. Next is the carnival of retail investors, but the main force did not take action.
This reminds me of the scene at the end of 2019 when the top leader said that he would vigorously develop blockchain. Of course, the environment at this moment is different from that time. Now is the time when the halving has just been completed, and the Federal Reserve is preparing to start cutting interest rates. It is the start-up stage of the bull market, while that time was the bottoming stage of the bear market.
In any case, stay patient and wait now, don't Fomo easily. If it doesn't pass the big drop, buy the bottom in batches. Of course, even if you have already chased the rise now, don't panic if it falls later. Just lie flat. At most, you can be trapped for another three to five months. The big bull market will always come in the second half of this year.

The BTC and ETH pins at this time are a bit interesting
There are two explanations for this pin: either the ETH spot ETF is not passed, and people who got the wind came to dump the market and sell, or it was a burst of long orders to relieve the pressure for the subsequent pull-up.
If it is a burst of long orders, especially the long orders chasing the rise, this force of the pin is far from enough. At least it must be a pin on the 4-hour line, and those who chased the rise by more than 10 times will be burst, so that the subsequent pull-up can run fast, that is, ETH pins to 3500-3600 US dollars, BTC pins to 64000-64800 US dollars;
If it is a wind that is not passed, then before 24:00 today, it should not be able to recover the decline of the pin, that is, BTC cannot reach 71,000 US dollars, and ETH cannot reach 3940 US dollars.
If this rise is caused by the ETH spot ETF to pass, then this force is too small. It is obvious that the funds outside the market have not entered the market, and it is the retail investors in the market who are chasing the rise. It has been exactly two months since the shock decline in mid-March. Retail investors have earned wages and have bullets, which are enough for the oil money for this wave of rise.

In the current market, you'd rather go short (with stop-profit and stop-loss) than chase the rise with Fomo. No matter how high the market says the probability of ETH spot ETF passing is, first, it has not passed. Now it is because of the two consecutive months of sluggishness, and hype is needed to pull a wave of killing shorts;
Second, if it passes on the 23rd or 25th, then the current rise is a bit too much, and there is a risk of good news turning into bad news. After all, the Federal Reserve, the largest faucet in the global market, has not opened the gate to release water, and the landlord has no surplus food. The last time the Bitcoin spot ETF passed, it has consumed most of the surplus food of traditional old money. This time ETH may not have too much food to feed.
If it does not pass, then the market may fall back from where it rose.
Of course, in the long run, the approval of ETH spot ETF is definitely a big boon. After all, compared with BTC's dominance/loneliness, ETH's ecosystem is famously rich. Once approved, it may be "one person's success brings prosperity to all the family members", but this also depends on the cooperation of the overall environment. This overall environment is mainly the global major central banks represented by the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and releasing liquidity. At present, the crypto market is ultimately a product of sufficient liquidity. $BTC $ETH

ETH's rise this time is like altcoins, mainly due to the hype about the passing of spot ETFs; I have specifically mentioned this in the article before.
The passing of Bitcoin spot ETF directly broke Bitcoin's historical high, so now the question is:
Will ETH spot ETF be passed in May?
If passed, can ETH break the historical high of 4868?
Will it trigger the altcoin season?
Regarding the first question, I think we should not be too optimistic now. The passing of Bitcoin has also been full of twists and turns. I suspect that the current rise is more hyped. At present, the deadlines and entities of Ethereum spot ETFs to be approved by the US SEC are mainly the following:
May 23, VanEck Ethereum ETF;
May 24, Ark 21Shares Ethereum ETF;
May 30, Hashdex Ethereum ETF;
June 18, Grayscale ETF; July 5, Invesco ETF; August 7, BlackRock ETF;
The second question is that if ETH is approved, it will break the historical high. It has been said before that how to evaluate whether a piece of news is good depends on whether it can bring new funds to the market or a specific project. This is the basis of all market bull markets: that is, there are constantly new funds (leeks) entering the market. If the ETH spot ETF is approved, it will undoubtedly bring a lot of new funds to ETH. But $ETH and $BTC are different. BTC hits the issue of the ultimate ownership of assets, especially the complete disappearance of Satoshi Nakamoto, which makes BTC have no shortcomings, but ETH has completely taken the opposite path, which is destined to have more twists and turns.
The third question is that even if the ETH spot ETF is approved, the outbreak of the altcoin season may not come now. Because the Fed's interest rate is high, the landlords have no liquidity. If it is approved, the inflow of money can make ETH soar, and then hype a few altcoins. The outbreak of the altcoin season needs to wait until the Fed's interest rate cut is confirmed in July or September. #内容挖空
In summary: Don't chase the rise with Fomo, take a long-term view, it is not spring now, first survive the first half of 2024, and the second half of the year will be the harvest season.

Will there be another black swan-style crash?
Many people are expecting that with the continued high interest rates of the Federal Reserve, there will be an economic and financial black swan event, which will trigger a big crash in the cryptocurrency circle.
From a historical perspective, this is indeed the case: the US subprime mortgage crisis, the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the Internet bubble in the past two decades are all living examples.
Many crises also broke out in the year or so when the Federal Reserve's interest rates continued to rise. This time, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.5 on July 27 last year, it has remained at a high point of 5.5 for 10 months, and no similar financial crisis has occurred so far.
An important purpose of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is to complete the harvest of the world. How can it harvest without a crisis? The reasons for not lowering interest rates, such as the rebound in the US CPI and the strong non-agricultural data, are all pretexts. In the final analysis, the United States printed 20 trillion US dollars during the epidemic, which is the sum of the past 20 years; although the inflation has been passed on to the world through the status of the US dollar as a global currency. However, if so many US dollars do not complete the asset harvest and make the extra US dollars have value support, then the US dollar system will collapse.
Therefore, the probability of a black swan event of a financial crisis in the real economy is very high. This can "force" the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the dollar will flow out to harvest the crisis-ridden economies, completing the closed loop of interest rate hikes and cuts. The world has liquidity, and the cryptocurrency market has a bull market, because in the final analysis, the cryptocurrency market is still a product of sufficient liquidity.
Having said so much, in fact, there is only one sentence to say, stay patient.
This is the dark forest of the cryptocurrency circle: if you lose your patience and move around, you will be the prey to be eaten, and only by staying patient can you become the hunter who eats the meat.

Bitcoin is still fluctuating, while altcoins are falling.
This shows that the panic in the market is serious, and altcoins are being sold to hedge risks. The current major economic and financial event is the US CPI announcement at 8:30 pm the day after tomorrow.
Everything else is still calm. The Fed's interest rate has been high for ten months. According to history, the black swan event is already brewing, and only the last straw is missing.
As mentioned before, the 3-5 months after the halving are the most difficult time. Once you get through it, it will be the time for a big wealth explosion. Life is like this. 80% of the time is spent in boredom and hardship. The splendor of blooming and bearing fruit only lasts for a few short autumns.

The current market is just a few random fluctuations within the Bitcoin range, and now those who chase the rise and fall are retail investors, and the main players have not participated at all;
This market is volatile 80% of the time, and it is soaring and plummeting 20% ​​of the time; the former belongs to retail investors, and the latter belongs to the main players.
Retail investors spend 80% of their time trading, and 20% of their time chasing the rise and fall and cutting themselves; the main players spend 80% of their time enjoying life, and 20% of their time laying out and cutting leeks.
So only 20% make money, and 80% lose money.
If you want to be one of the 20% who make money, then reduce the number of transactions, eat well, sleep well, and wait patiently. The bull market is not achieved overnight. Don't be upset about missing out on a hundred-fold or ten-thousand-fold project and impulsively go all-in. There are opportunities everywhere in the currency circle. Living long is the most important thing. If you seize it once, you can turn over a new leaf.

Bitcoin is likely to fall below 60,000, which is a second step. It should rebound around 59,000.
At present, Bitcoin has not successfully bottomed out, so all altcoins dare not make big moves.
It is estimated that the bottoming time will be at least one month, and it will take until July to break a new high.

May is here again. Will there be a crash like the one on March 12 and May 19?
The two famous crashes in the last round of halving are psychological shadows for many people, so let's talk about them briefly:
The crash on May 19, Bitcoin fell from a low of 43,580 to 30,000, a maximum drop of 31%;
On March 12, it fell from a high of more than 7,900 to 4,400, a drop of 44%, and then continued to fall to around 3,800 on March 13;
The reason is that the black swan of the epidemic around March 12, 2020 caused the US stock market to be circuit-breaker 3 times in 8 days, and the impact of domestic policies on May 19, 2021 (this is also the last time that domestic policies have a major impact on the currency circle). Such black swan events will not happen every day, and now no matter the consensus of Bitcoin, the large-scale entry of old money after spot ETFs, or the development of the ecological system of the currency circle itself, they are not comparable to the last round of halving.
It is meaningless to not know why and not keep up with the times. The current high interest rate of the Federal Reserve will cause an economic and financial crisis that will affect the cryptocurrency world. It is right to pay attention to risks, but it is completely unnecessary to scare yourself.
Moreover, after the sharp drop on April 13, the profit-making market was also cleaned up. It can be compared with March 12, 2020. Those who bought after March 12 eventually made a lot of money.
Again, at this stage, if you dare to buy when the price drops, you can wait patiently after buying. Don't listen to the alarmist words of those who have been thrown off the bus or missed the opportunity. Financial freedom is your own business

What is the most important thing in contract trading?
It is not about making a lot of money or making money quickly, but living longer.
Before the third halving in May 2020, I started playing with contracts for the first time. At that time, 100x leverage was too low, and leverage had never been lower than 30x. At the beginning, I used the technical analysis I learned to chase the rise and fall. I earned 20 times in a week. I was full of confidence and added a month's salary. I was ready to play big. Then two days before the third halving on May 12, the market plummeted and all positions were liquidated in 15 minutes. My mind was blank at the time. After being beaten, I gradually reduced the leverage to single digits. The contract targets were also mainly concentrated on BTC and ETH. Reduce the number of opening positions and open positions based on trends, especially in the bull market. For example, after a big drop, open a low-multiple position and hold it like spot. In the end, the contracts that made money were basically these low-multiple positions. Earning about 10% each time may not seem much, but the power of compound interest is invincible. Coupled with the power of time, it is the way to get rich. For example, now the capital is 1000u, and the profit is 10% each time. On average, open a position every three days. There is still a year before this round of halving bull market. Everyone calculates how much money you can make after the bull market ends?

The non-farm data has posed a difficult question to the Fed: should it maintain the big or the small? But at least the Fed will have to seriously consider it when it meets later: Can the US withstand the hard landing of the economy?
This good news also comes at a very good time. Bitcoin's decline has come to an end, and it can continue to play music and dance. However, it is not realistic to expect a rapid rise. After all, it takes time to repair the market sentiment after such a long decline.
In the next week or so, Bitcoin should fluctuate in the range of 56,500-61,500. Some altcoins that have performed relatively well in this round of decline will have a chance to rise.

Let's talk about the two scams represented by arb and op. These are the two worst performing currencies I bought in this round of market.
Why are they performing poorly? Because the project has been releasing new coins, and 90 million and 20 million will be released in May respectively.
These two currencies basically represent the routine of the dog dealers to cut leeks in this round of market: they start with high market value and high price, and then release new coins little by little, sell them off to realize cash, and don't pull up and waste you.
So in the future, if you encounter a new coin with a high market value when it is launched, for example, it is directly ranked in the top 50 in market value, don't buy it. No matter how popular it is and how many people are optimistic about it, such a high market value is clearly to cut leeks. If you have a lot of money, you might as well buy Bitcoin and ETH. If you really can't buy BNB, it's better than being cut.
Of course, I am still optimistic about the layer2 concept, but at this stage, I will never buy these two currencies again. I would rather find a meme concept currency outside the top 100 in market value to gamble.

The dust has settled. The Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates next time, but the rate cut may not come until September. However, the good news is that the balance sheet reduction has slowed down.
So let's start the rebound first, first look at 61,000, and then fluctuate to find the direction. Tomorrow is Friday, the option delivery, and the negative factors have temporarily dissipated, so let's sing and dance for now.
For more content, you can check the newly released article: 比特币4万见？月线7连涨终结，美联储还有5次议息会议，大牛市从来都是明牌！

On the first day of May, the first callback level of 56,000 was reached. There must be a rebound at this position, because the decline and large volume indicate that there are both sellers and buyers, and the power of bottom-fishing is still very strong, so it depends on whether it can stand firm at $60,500.
Judging from today's falling market, after the Fed's interest rate decision at 2 a.m. tomorrow, Powell is likely to say something hawkish, but it should be just a tough talk. The Fed's current interest rate is so high that you can almost earn interest by borrowing money and depositing it in the bank. It's just that because the US has such a big round of interest rate hikes, it has not yet reaped the benefits, and it must be dissatisfied. It depends on who can persist in these powerful pills around the world.
Of course, we must also have the worst plan, that is, if the rebound fails, we will touch the second position mentioned earlier: 49,000--50,000; the third position will not be considered for the time being.
Finally, I would like to give you a recharge of faith. The Fed has not started to cut interest rates, but it will definitely cut interest rates. In fact, the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle has always been clear: the super bull market in 2017 was spawned by the Fed's low interest rates + CBOE/CEM's launch of Bitcoin futures trading; the super bull market in 2020-2021 was driven by the Fed's zero interest rate + unlimited QE.
This round of bull market is the Bitcoin spot ETF + the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. The ETF is the fuse, and the interest rate cut is the powder keg. It's just that the powder keg is a distance away from the fuse, and now we are going through this distance.

Long orders were liquidated for $260 million. It was only the beginning of May and Bitcoin was already at $60,000 in just two hours.
Judging from the comments on the last tweet, many people have already shouted that it will reach $30,000 or $10,000, or even that it has turned from bull to bear. It has only been fluctuating for a month and a half, which has scared many people.
If it rises, it will reach $200,000 (blockchain revolution), and if it falls, it will reach $10,000 (big scam). I am also familiar with this mentality. I just entered the industry in 2018, and I was also very good at chasing ups and downs. It can be said that the salary I earned in the first year of entering the industry was chased by myself.
The longest monthly line of seven consecutive increases in Bitcoin history has ended. For such a long rise, there is almost no decent callback. Now the Fed’s attitude towards interest rate cuts is ambiguous, CZ has not yet settled, and the black swan of global monetary tightening may appear or has already appeared... These things are just right to wash the market, but the consensus on Bitcoin is getting higher and higher. How can it be washed clean without some unconventional operations and without wearing out the patience of most retail investors?
My judgment is that the bull market is only in the early to mid-term, but the wash in May is inevitable, even if we only look at the technical form: April closed with a big negative line, and May will have to be inserted anyway, it depends on how deep the insertion is?

Gen Ge will make a more specific prediction of the position of Bitcoin:

First position: 54000-56000 (50% probability, normal callback insertion)

Second position: 49000-50000 (30% probability, panic stampede)

Third position: 41500-43000 (20% probability, major black swan)

Deeper positions, at least I can't see them at the moment, so how much do you see? Please leave your opinions and basis

The monthly line is about to close, and the monthly line of Bitcoin is very ugly now.
No matter what Powell said in the early morning of May 2, as long as there is no interest rate cut (most likely it will remain unchanged), Bitcoin will have a spike to test the bottom, and it is possible to break 60,000 again and touch the support level of 54,000-56,000.
Of course, even if it goes to spike again and smashes a number of altcoins to a new low, it will not change the overall trend of the big bull. The deeper the smash, the more thorough the wash, and the higher the subsequent rise.
Now, spot coin friends should prepare psychologically in advance and don't be washed out. If you can't, just lie down and pretend to be dead. If you have spare energy, prepare bullets and buy the bottom if you dare to fall.
Contract coin friends should pay attention to risk control. Now in the market, the contract trading volume is almost ten times that of the spot. The dog dealer's spike is aimed at your contract position.
The three to five months after each round of halving are the most difficult. Eat well, sleep well, and outlast the dog dealer to eat meat and drink big bowls.

At 2 a.m. on May 2, the Fed's third interest rate decision this year will be released.
The current market is half-dead, and the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy accounts for more than half of the reasons. The US CPI, non-farm data, and PCE data have not looked good for a long time, which has poured cold water on those who optimistically estimated that the Fed would cut interest rates in the first half of the year.
From a historical perspective, every bull market has to be promoted by the Fed's interest rate cut or low interest rate, because this is the biggest faucet and the biggest money printing machine in the entire market. For example, the super bull market in 2017 was spawned by the Fed's low interest rate + CBOE/CEM's online Bitcoin futures trading; the super bull market in 2020-2021 was driven by the Fed's zero interest rate + unlimited QE.
At present, it is impossible to cut interest rates in the four meetings in the first half of the year. The interest rate may be cut at the interest rate meeting on September 17 in the second half of the year, but the official confirmation of the interest rate cut may be earlier, such as the meeting on July 31. Then the market speculates on expectations and starts to rise continuously.
As mentioned before: May-July-September, the 3-5 months after the halving are the most difficult, be prepared for a protracted war, and the price will not rise unless the main force loses patience with retail investors. Patience is the watershed of wealth.

Brother Gen has started copy trading. In the future, he will mainly do low-multiple contracts of BTC and ETH, and will also look for a good position to do low-multiple contracts of some altcoins. Mainly pursue stable returns and enjoy the compound growth of wealth.
Self-introduction: I entered the cryptocurrency circle in 2018 and have worked in the world's top exchanges, public chain project parties, Bitcoin mining, media and other tracks. I am familiar with popular concepts and projects such as DeFi, NFT, GameFi, AI, BRC20, DePIN, wallets, etc.; I have rich trading experience, have led the community, and understand the industry history and trading psychology; the halving bull market in the next year or so will be the last and biggest opportunity for ordinary people, so let's get started! 阿根战记的交易