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#美光业绩超预期并上调指引 Micron’s performance—has AI trading come back for another round?
First the conclusion: it’s not just above expectations, it’s crushingly above expectations.
Q4 revenue was $54.2B versus the market’s $51.5B—$2.7B higher. Adjusted EPS was $33.42 versus the expected $31.61, also above. The most impressive part is the data center business: up from $1.58B in the same period last year to $18B, a 11x jump.
There were plenty of highlights on the earnings call. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra’s exact words: “AI is becoming super-intelligent; memory-enhanced like this is the intelligence.” Put simply: the more intense AI gets, the more memory is in short supply—and Micron profits.
More tangible still, management said supply and demand in 2027 and 2028 will be tighter than in 2026. Right now, they “don’t see when it could rebalance.” They’ve already signed 26 strategic customer agreements, locking in that by 2030 the company will get more than 35% of revenue from these deals.
So has the money returned to AI trading? After-hours price action was a bit complicated. It rose and then slipped, because next quarter’s gross margin guidance is 86.25%, slightly lower than this quarter’s 87%, mainly due to higher employee bonuses.
But the bottom line is: revenue and guidance both beat hard, and gross margin fluctuations are just a detour. On Wall Street, there’s already commentary saying they “see no negative signals that the cycle is about to turn.”
This AI story isn’t over yet. $MU $SOXL $DRAM

PCE data below expectations; BTC and ETH surge wildly

US stock index futures jump in the short term. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.48% intraday, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.50%, and Dow Jones futures rose 0.49%. $ETH $BTC $SOXL #美国8月核心PCE降至3%

The U.S. says it is ending its “inherent resolve” operation in Iraq

But the Pentagon has a quick follow-up: it will still train Iraqis and keep providing intelligence. In plain words—troops may be coming out, but their watchful eyes are not.

Don’t jump to the conclusion that U.S.-Iran talks have taken hold. This looks more like the U.S. changing to a cheaper strategy: it won’t occupy territory, but it can still keep an eye on you.

Iran and the militias think they’ve won, Iraq celebrates sovereignty, but ISIS is still around—who will fill the security vacuum?

The chess game in the Middle East isn’t over; it’s just a change in tactics. $CL $XAU $BTC

#股票财报季 US stock market outlook: long-end rates blew up; tech stocks held up hard. Tonight’s PCE is the final piece of the puzzle
At Tuesday’s close, the three major indexes looked calm on the surface, but turbulence was building underneath. The S&P 500 fell 0.17%, the Dow dropped 0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.21% against the tide. Optical communications and semiconductors propped up the tape—LITE jumped more than 5%, while Corning and MKS Instruments rose more than 4%. But the yield on the 30-year US Treasuries surged to 5.62%, the highest level since 2002.
On the macro front, there are three things—each more explosive than the last.
Williams held back, saying “no rush,” and the odds of a rate hike in October slipped from 70% down to 51%. But Barr immediately sang the opposite tune, saying the path back to 2% inflation is off course. The Fed’s own people are fighting among themselves first. Long-end yields are having none of it—Paramount issued $32 billion in bonds, intensifying supply pressure, and big buyers collectively vanished.
On oil, Qatar mediated + Saudi pipeline restoration, and Brent slid straight through 103. But spot Brent is still hovering around 120 for the moment, and the gap between futures and spot is wildly out of sync.
Tonight at 20:30, the PCE report—core expectations of 3.3% are unchanged. If the data come in even 0.3% above, bets on an October rate hike will rebound right away; long-end yields will surge again, and these little gains in tech stocks will all have to be given back. $CL $SOXL $KORU

Tonight’s PCE—are we handing the Fed a blade or a step?
Brothers, at 20:30 tonight, it basically comes down to one thing: whether the core PCE at 3.3% moves.
The expectations are laid out: both month-over-month for headline and core are 0.3%, with year-over-year at 3.7% and 3.3% respectively. What does that mean? Inflation is basically stuck in place and still nowhere near 2%. If you’re the Fed, do you dare to press the brake?
Consumption is even more troublesome. The market expects August spending to rise 0.8%, much more than July. Oil price gains are one thing, but Bank of America’s data shows that even excluding gasoline, spending still rises 5.7%. People complain about prices, but their hands keep swiping credit cards.
Last night, Williams delivered a softer message, saying “no rush,” and the odds of a rate hike in October dropped from about 70% to around 50%. But Baird’s side is being tougher, saying they “haven’t seen a trend of inflation coming down.” Even inside the Fed, they’re fighting with each other.
If tonight’s core PCE truly lands at 0.3% or above, then the 50% rate-hike probability will immediately jump higher.$CL $XAU $KORU

#sec主席拟推动股市上链 Has the probability of a rate hike fallen again? What is the market betting on this time?
A single remark from the New York Fed president sent bets on an October rate hike plunging from 70% to 50%.
What did Williams say? Basically: we just hiked in September, so don’t rush; there may be another one later this year, but it doesn’t have to be in October.
It sounded mild, but it was actually quite important. He is the Fed’s third-ranking figure, a permanent voting member, and his words carry real weight. The market quickly changed its tune: those previously betting on back-to-back hikes in October started betting on “skip October and talk about December later.”
But don’t relax too soon. On the same day, Barr and Goolsbee were still saying: inflation hasn’t come down, and if another hike is needed, it should happen.
So the situation now is: officials are divided in what they say, while the market votes with its feet. The probability of no rate hike in October is now over half, but the one hike expected this year is basically unavoidable.
The bond market is being more honest. The yield on 30-year Treasuries still surged above 5.6%, the highest since 2002. Even falling oil prices didn’t help—the market simply doesn’t believe inflation will come down on its own.$BTC $CL $SOXL

#amd82亿美元收购worldlabs US pre-market news: Storage chip and optical communication stocks broadly rise; SK hynix and Micron Technologies both gain more than 1%

Dow futures fall 0.03%, Nasdaq futures rise 0.09%, and S&P 500 index futures rise 0.01%.

Major technology stocks are mixed in pre-market trading: Nvidia up 0.67%, Apple down 0.21%, Microsoft down 0.14%, Google down 0.16%, Amazon up 0.24%, Meta up 0.15%, and Tesla up 0.41%.

Storage chip stocks are broadly higher pre-market: SK hynix up 1.31%, Micron Technology up 1.55%, Seagate Technology up 0.92%, SanDisk up 1.28%, and Western Digital up 0.54%.

Optical communication stocks are broadly higher pre-market: Lumentum up 0.96%, Corning up 0.27%, Coherent up 0.89%, Applied Optoelectronics up 0.49%, Ciena up 0.72%, Broadcom up 0.37%, and Mativ? (MRVL) up 1.15%.

WTI crude oil futures rise 0.80% to $93.34 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures rise 0.85% to $98.66 per barrel.

Spot gold in London rises 0.66% to $4,141.47 per ounce; spot silver in London rises 0.35% to $60.809 per ounce.

US plans to have Boeing’s “Starliner” return for crewed flights in 2028
On the 28th, NASA released the latest progress and mission plans for Boeing’s “Starliner.” The plan is to carry out the uncrewed “Starliner-1” mission to the International Space Station as early as December this year or January next year, and to conduct the crewed “Starliner-2” mission in 2028.

SpaceX’s “Starship” achieves its first Earth-orbit flight, but mission ends early
On the 28th, SpaceX’s “Starship” spacecraft achieved its first Earth-orbital flight, delivering 26 next-generation “Starlink” V3 satellites into orbit, but the test flight mission ended earlier than originally planned.

Australia central bank hikes rates to 4.6%, a nearly 15-year high
On the 29th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (the central bank) announced a 25-basis-point increase in the benchmark interest rate to 4.6%. This is the fourth rate hike by the RBA this year, taking rates to the highest level since late 2011.$CL $XAU $SOXL

$#anthropic招股书或估值超2万亿美元 2 trillion valuation, $42 billion loss, and a $5180 billion compute wager: How should we view Anthropic’s IPO?

First, look at the numbers on the books. Last year, revenue was $4.6 billion, up 12 times—impressive. But operating losses were $8 billion. Compute spending was $7.3 billion; for every $1 earned, $1.6 is burned. They have $20.3 billion in cash, which won’t last long under this burn rate.

The real risk is coming later: over the next few years, the pledged compute-related spending is $5180 billion—112 times the annual revenue. This isn’t running a business; it’s betting the whole stake on the future.

A $2 trillion valuation implies that 2025 revenue would be priced at 436x sales. To justify that price, by 2028 revenue would need to reach $190–200 billion. In three years, expanding over 40x—do you believe that?

There’s also a key detail: nearly a quarter of revenue comes from two customers, and there are no long-term contracts. If customers leave, the story can’t continue.

The IPO could be delayed until mid-November after the midterm elections. My view is simple: this is a classic case of primary-market valuations getting “inverted” onto the secondary market. Institutions bought the deal at $965 billion; at listing, it needs to scale to $2 trillion to exit. Will you take it?

If you want to bet on the AI narrative, first figure out who will pay the $5180 billion bill. $ANTHROPIC

#韩股kospi指数跌2.7%三星sk海力士跌超5% US stocks: Most semiconductor stocks fall; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index drops 1.5%

Among constituent stocks, ARM falls by more than 8%, Qualcomm by more than 7%, Intel by more than 4%, Marvell Technology and AMD by more than 3%, and Micron Technology by more than 2%;

NVIDIA rises by more than 3% against the trend. The company announced that it will increase its share repurchase authorization by $150 billion.

SpaceX: All 26 satellites on Starship are successfully deployed into orbit.
$KORU $SOXL $SPCX

Understand the U.S. stock pre-market trading action, read the market moves, get ahead of the curve—stay leading all the way

QNT doubles within a week—this isn’t KOL hype calling trades; it’s the US clearinghouse that stamped it.
This round has nothing to do with community trade calls. On September 24, the US clearinghouse (The Clearing House) officially announced the selection of Quant (QNT) as the technology provider for its “On-chain Currency Program.” This organization processes over $2 trillion in payments every day. In simple terms, it’s handing the tokenized deposits settlement layer of the US banking system to QNT to handle—this is a real, institutional-level order.
On-chain data also says the same: in the eight days before the announcement, active addresses rose from below 800 to above 870—someone moved early.
At the current price of around 260–290, it touched a high of 373 this morning, with a roughly 90% gain over the past 24 hours. But a few signals must be clearly noted: RSI is already 78, which is extremely overbought; more than 70% of the trading volume is wash trading; and exchange inflows are increasing—someone is transferring inventory to exchanges, preparing to sell. $QNT #Quant将支持清算所区块链支付网络

#中美达成300亿美元关税削减共识 The U.S.-China tariff cuts are slashing $30 billion, and these U.S. stock sectors are worth watching closely.
The consensus on this round of U.S.-China tariff reductions is basically confirmed. Official news says the two sides have reached a reciprocal tariff cut arrangement worth $30 billion and are now pushing it into implementation. For those of us who trade, let’s skip the fluff and look directly at where the money is flowing.
When tariffs come down, the most immediate beneficiaries are consumer goods and retail. Brands that were previously squeezed by tariffs can finally breathe a lot easier on the cost side. Some institutions previously singled out names like Nike and Five Below, which have heavy exposure to China-based supply chains. The logic is straightforward: lower tariffs mean fatter profits.
Then there’s semiconductors in tech hardware. A lot of chip companies may not seem directly tied to tariffs, but downstream phone, PC, and server assembly all happens in China. When finished devices get cheaper, demand for upstream chips naturally rises as well. Names with high China revenue exposure, such as ON Semiconductor and NXP, have historically reacted strongly whenever tariff-easing news hits.
The S&P 500 is now not far from its all-time high, and the Nasdaq recently set a new high too. Before the tariff tailwind fully plays out, capital is likely to front-run these sectors.
Keep an eye on retail and semiconductors, and don’t wait until the whole market already knows the news before acting.$SOXL $KORU $CXMT

$PAID is recently among the top-tier gameplay in terms of storytelling. Unfortunately, it’s positioned too high—hopefully there will be an opportunity if there’s a pullback later. The consensus is very strong, and reaching a market cap of $100 million should be no problem. 98kfF7rmsg1QDUEoCqNE7g7M1FdrTt92TEp2CLzypump