For-Exx Kripto

A Bigger Risk for U.S. Stocks: The Debt Burden of AI Investments
As renewed inflation in the United States increases pressure on equity markets, a deeper risk in the technology sector is becoming increasingly apparent. The growing need for borrowing to finance artificial intelligence investments, combined with rising interest rates, is driving up corporate costs. The market's main concern is not so much whether demand for AI will continue, but rather how sustainable the massive investments being made to meet that demand really are.
The annual U.S. consumer inflation rate rose to 3.7% in September, strengthening expectations that the Fed could keep interest rates elevated for longer and consider another rate hike. Rising Treasury yields have created an additional source of pressure, particularly for technology and infrastructure companies that depend on external financing.
The Cost of the AI Race Is Rising
Technology companies are investing billions of dollars in data centers, advanced processors, and energy infrastructure to meet growing demand for AI applications. However, these investments require substantial amounts of capital before the resulting revenues are fully realized.
The increasing reliance of major technology companies such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle on bond issuance to secure financing indicates that the sector is facing an increasingly significant need for capital.
While financially strong companies can support these investments through their own cash flows, specialized cloud and AI infrastructure providers may need to borrow more heavily. In an environment of rising interest rates, this difference becomes critical to companies' financial resilience.
Rising Yields on CoreWeave Bonds Send a Warning Signal
CoreWeave has become one of the most striking examples of financing risk among AI infrastructure companies. Its shares experienced a sharp decline as investors grew increasingly concerned about borrowing costs and capital expenditures.
Yields on CoreWeave's 2031 and 2032 bonds approaching approximately 15% indicate a significant deterioration in credit market perceptions of the company's debt risk.
The company's business model requires substantial upfront capital to purchase advanced GPUs and build large data centers. The return on these investments depends on future customer contracts and revenue streams.
Strong customer demand alone may not be enough. When financing expenses and infrastructure costs rise rapidly, a significant portion of revenue growth may be absorbed by debt servicing, reducing the returns shareholders can expect.
Inflation and High Interest Rates Deepen the Risk
The renewed strengthening of price pressures in the United States creates a two-pronged problem for technology companies. On one hand, high inflation can push up Treasury yields and borrowing costs. On the other, high interest rates put pressure on the valuations of growth stocks.
Interest rate increases become particularly significant for projects whose returns are spread over many years. The present value of the revenue companies expect to generate in the future declines, while financing those same projects becomes more expensive.
As a result, even if the economic potential of AI investments remains intact, generating financial returns from this growth can become more difficult.
Selling Pressure Spreads Across the AI Ecosystem
Financing concerns have not been limited to CoreWeave. Selling pressure has also emerged in companies associated with AI infrastructure, chip manufacturing, and data center investments.
Declines in the shares of companies such as Oracle, Nebius, and Dell indicate that investors are beginning to assess the AI theme more selectively. In addition to strong demand and growth expectations, the market is paying closer attention to the cost of financing that growth.
This distinction is particularly important for companies with high debt levels and substantial capital expenditure requirements. Financially stronger technology giants and infrastructure providers that rely more heavily on external financing may need to be assessed as separate risk categories.
Is the Bigger Concern Financing Risk Rather Than an AI Bubble?
The long-term growth potential of AI technology and the financial sustainability of investments in the sector are two different issues.
Companies may have strong demand, substantial order volumes, and long-term customer contracts. However, if investment costs, debt interest, and required capital expenditures rise faster than revenues, growth may fail to deliver the expected value for shareholders.
For this reason, investors need to focus not only on the growth in AI adoption but also on companies' cash flows, debt-servicing capacity, financing expenses, and investment payback periods.
Profitability Is Now the Market's Focus
The key factors influencing U.S. equity markets in the coming period include inflation data, the Fed's interest rate policy, Treasury yields, and the financial results of AI investments.
If interest rates remain elevated, the cost of debt-financed data center investments could increase. If credit market risk perceptions deteriorate, companies may be forced to seek more expensive financing or revise their investment plans.
The central question for the AI sector is no longer simply how much demand will grow, but whether that growth can translate into sustainable profits. In the coming period, the performance gap between companies with strong balance sheets, manageable debt costs, and healthy cash flows and businesses dependent on aggressive borrowing may become more pronounced.
$BTC

How Will the U.S. Midterm Elections Affect Markets? A Critical Period for Stocks and Sectors
As the November 3, 2026, U.S. midterm elections approach, investors have begun assessing the potential impact of political uncertainty on stocks, bonds, and various sectors. Coinciding with geopolitical tensions, the inflation outlook, and the Fed's interest rate policy, the elections are expected to increase market volatility in the final part of the year.
Historical data show that the U.S. stock market delivers more modest returns in midterm election years compared with other years, while a strong recovery trend often emerges in the period following the elections. However, there is no guarantee that past performance will be repeated in the future.
The S&P 500 Posts More Modest Gains During Midterm Election Years
According to data dating back to 1931, the S&P 500 index has delivered an average return of 4.7% during U.S. midterm election years. In years without midterm elections, the index's average annual return has been 9.5%.
Recent examples also show that the political calendar can coincide with periods of market uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 18.1% in 2018 and 4.4% in 2022. Alongside political developments, the Fed's interest rate hikes and tightening financial conditions played significant roles in these declines.
Therefore, political outcomes are not the only factor determining market direction during midterm election periods. Inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and corporate earnings also continue to play decisive roles in investors' decisions.
Tendency for Stocks to Recover After the Elections
One notable aspect of historical performance is the potential for equities to perform more strongly after the elections have concluded.
The S&P 500 has gained an average of 6.4% in fourth quarters following midterm elections. Since 1970, it has also delivered an average return of 6.5% over the three-month period following midterm elections.
Longer-term data point to a similar trend. Since 1962, the S&P 500 has not recorded a negative return during the 12-month periods following midterm elections, with the average gain reaching 16.33%.
This performance suggests that reduced political uncertainty once election results become clear could support investor confidence. However, major economic factors, such as monetary policy or geopolitical risks, could override this historical trend.
Why Does Congressional Control Matter for Markets?
The November 3 elections will determine all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the Senate's 100 seats, and 36 state governorships.
Republicans hold a 53–47 majority in the Senate, while their advantage in the House of Representatives is limited to just five seats. As a result, the election outcome could directly affect the political room President Donald Trump has to maneuver on economic and foreign policy during the second half of his term.
Expectations that Democrats could win control of the House of Representatives are gaining ground, while the Senate race is expected to be more competitive. Results in states such as Maine, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa could prove critical in determining control of the Senate.
A shift in the balance of power in Congress could affect tax policies, government spending, regulations, and budget decisions. This uncertainty could increase price volatility, particularly in sectors where political decisions directly affect corporate revenues.
Trump's Approval Rating and Political Uncertainty
President Trump's public approval rating falling to 35% or below in some polls has intensified debate over the direction of the election race. Meanwhile, his support remaining at higher levels among Republican voters shows that the political landscape varies across voter groups.
Prediction markets favor the possibility of Democrats winning the House of Representatives, while the outlook for the Senate remains less clear.
In addition, many members of Congress are not seeking reelection, creating opportunities for new candidates to enter the race in certain districts. This increases the possibility that the existing political balance could shift in unexpected ways.
Which Sectors Stand Out During Midterm Elections?
Sector performance during past midterm election years suggests that investors tend to favor more defensive sectors before elections and shift toward more cyclical sectors afterward.
The healthcare sector has historically stood out during midterm election years, delivering an average return of 10.7%. The energy sector has also attracted attention with an average gain of 8.9%. Meanwhile, industrials and financials have tended to post relatively flat performance during the same periods.
Before elections, relatively defensive sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, communication services, and utilities can remain more resilient. Because demand for these companies' products and services is less sensitive to the economic cycle, they may attract investor interest during periods of uncertainty.
After elections, cyclical consumer sectors, energy, financials, industrials, technology, and materials companies may deliver stronger performance. Reduced political uncertainty and investors reassessing their economic growth expectations can support this trend.
However, as sector performance varies depending on economic conditions, historical averages alone are not sufficient grounds for making investment decisions.
The Fed's Interest Rate Policy Could Matter More Than the Elections
As the U.S. midterm elections approach, investors may need to look beyond political outcomes. The Fed's fight against inflation and the future path of interest rates will continue to be critical factors influencing the direction of equity markets.
High interest rates increase companies' financing costs and can reduce the present value of future earnings. This can put pressure on technology companies, particularly those with high valuations. Conversely, declining interest rate expectations can support a recovery in equities.
The elections' potential impact on foreign and trade policy will also be closely monitored for its implications for energy prices, the dollar, and global risk appetite. Consequently, the market impact of the political outcome will largely depend on the prevailing economic environment.
A Critical Period for Markets Ahead of the November Elections
The U.S. midterm elections are among the key developments investors will be watching closely in the final part of 2026. Although historical data suggest that returns may be more modest before elections and performance may strengthen afterward, current economic and geopolitical conditions could produce a different outcome.
In the coming period, the balance of power in Congress, the Fed's interest rate decisions, inflation data, and corporate financial results will jointly influence market direction.
For investors, the central challenge will be distinguishing short-term volatility caused by the elections from longer-term economic trends. Reduced political uncertainty could support equities; however, persistently high interest rates or escalating geopolitical risks could limit the recovery expected after the elections.
$BTC

AI BOOM DRIVES UP COMPUTER PRICES: U.S. TECHNOLOGY INFLATION HITS A 20-YEAR HIGH
Massive investments in AI infrastructure have coincided with a notable increase in consumer technology prices in the United States. September inflation data revealed one of the sharpest annual increases in computer and hardware prices in the past two decades, bringing the impact of AI demand on prices into the economic spotlight.
Annual Increase in Computer Prices Reaches 9.7%
In September, prices for computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants rose 9.7% year over year. This marked the highest annual increase recorded since at least 2006.
Annual price increases for computer software and accessories reached 28.4%. The data show that cost pressures on technology products are not limited to hardware but are also spreading across different product categories.
AI Investments Are Driving Up Costs
Technology companies are increasing spending on data centers, advanced processors, and high-performance servers, strengthening demand across the hardware supply chain. Intense demand for advanced processors from manufacturers such as Nvidia is making capacity constraints and supply costs increasingly important.
The expansion of investment in AI infrastructure can create upward price pressure in areas where production capacity and component supplies cannot keep pace with demand. The extent to which these effects are passed on to consumer technology products will be closely monitored in the coming months.
A New Inflation Risk for the Fed
Rising technology prices are among the factors that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation back to its 2% target. In particular, if AI investments continue to push up costs in sectors beyond energy and housing, the risk of inflationary pressures spreading more broadly could increase.
The rise in U.S. consumer inflation to 3.7% year over year in September also indicates that price pressures persist. If increases in technology prices become entrenched alongside energy costs, the Fed may need to take a more cautious approach to monetary policy.
AI Growth Could Fuel Inflation
AI is expected to improve productivity and reduce production costs over the long term. However, before these gains fully materialize, infrastructure spending, chip demand, and energy requirements can generate inflationary effects in the short term.
The critical question for markets is whether these cost increases will prove to be a temporary consequence of an investment cycle or spread to consumer prices and develop into more persistent inflationary pressure.
If AI investment continues to support economic growth while also pushing prices higher, the Fed may face an increasingly difficult balancing act between sustaining economic expansion and keeping inflation under control.
$BTC

U.S. INFLATION DATA DUE WEDNESDAY: THE FED’S OCTOBER DECISION DEPENDS ON CPI AS MARKETS PREPARE FOR FOUR SCENARIOS
Spot: The U.S. September CPI data will be released on Wednesday, October 14, at 15:30 TRT. Record gasoline prices will push headline inflation higher, while attention will focus on core inflation. Markets are assigning approximately a 20% probability to an October rate hike; a hot reading could change this outlook in a single move.
WHAT TIME WILL THE DATA BE RELEASED, AND WHAT IS EXPECTED?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the September 2026 Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, October 14, at 08:30 New York time, or 15:30 TRT. This is the last major inflation indicator before the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting.
Indicator: Headline CPI (YoY)
August (Previous): 3.4%
September Expectation: 3.6%–3.7%
Indicator: Headline CPI (MoM)
August (Previous): 0.4%
September Expectation: 0.5%–0.6%
Indicator: Core CPI (YoY)
August (Previous): 2.4%
September Expectation: 2.4%
Indicator: Core CPI (MoM)
August (Previous): 0.3%
September Expectation: 0.2%
The market consensus points to annual headline inflation of 3.7%. The Cleveland Fed’s real-time nowcasting model, meanwhile, points to 3.60% for headline inflation and 2.39% for core inflation.
WHY WILL HEADLINE INFLATION RISE?
The reason is energy, in one word. The war with Iran and disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices elevated. Brent crude traded at around $107 per barrel at the end of September. The average U.S. gasoline price rose to $4.33 per gallon in September, a historical record for the month and more than $1 above the level recorded a year earlier.
In the August data, gasoline alone rose 3.9% month over month, accounting for more than one-third of the total increase. Energy prices rose 16.3% year over year, while airline ticket prices increased 23.4%. Energy is expected to make an even larger contribution to headline inflation in September.
WHY IS CORE INFLATION CRITICAL?
The Fed looks at core inflation, which excludes food and energy, to answer the question: “Are price pressures spreading throughout the economy?” In August, annual core CPI fell to 2.4%, its lowest level since March 2021. However, the monthly rate accelerated from 0.2% to 0.3%. Part of the low annual figure reflects a high base effect from 2025. For this reason, the market will focus on the monthly core reading this time.
Another point to watch: the indicator targeted by the Fed is PCE. In August, annual core PCE stood at 3.0%. In other words, core CPI at 2.4% does not mean that inflation is close to the Fed’s target.
Key subcomponents to monitor include housing (rent and owners’ equivalent rent, or OER), airline tickets, transportation services, and “supercore” inflation (core services excluding housing). These categories will provide the earliest indication of whether higher fuel costs are spilling over into service prices.
THE FED’S POSITION
On September 16, the Fed delivered its first rate hike since July 2023, raising the policy rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. The decision was unanimous. The Dot Plot shows a median year-end rate of 4.1%, implying one additional 25-basis-point hike before the end of 2026.
The September meeting minutes, released on October 7, revealed that most policymakers considered another rate hike by year-end appropriate. However, the timing remains uncertain:
Waller: Said further rate hikes may be necessary, but they do not have to occur at consecutive meetings.Williams: Another hike this year is “reasonable,” but there is no need to rush.Bowman and Jefferson: More cautious about additional rate hikes.
Weak September employment data also lowered expectations: nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000, compared with expectations of approximately 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%; and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%. Because wages are lagging behind inflation, real wages are eroding. Some analysts interpret this picture as a stagflation risk.
According to CME FedWatch data, the market is pricing in an approximately 20% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting and a probability above 80% of at least one hike by December. The fact that the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 will take place just six days after the Fed meeting is another factor supporting a “wait-and-see” approach in October.
Treasury Yields and the Dollar: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.34% on October 1, its highest level since 2002, and climbed as high as 5.36% on October 7. The 2-year Treasury yield is around 4.79%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose to the 102.3 area following the release of the minutes.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS: HOW COULD MARKETS REACT TO THE DATA?
HOT DATA
Headline inflation at 3.8% or higher, monthly core inflation at 0.4% or higher
This scenario would mean that the energy shock is spreading to core prices. An October rate hike, which the market has assigned a low probability to, would come back into consideration, and discussions could begin about a 50-basis-point move in December.
Dollar (DXY): Strong rally. Short-term interest rate expectations shift in favor of the dollar.EUR/USD: Downward pressure.USD/JPY: Moves higher. The 160 level will be monitored as a critical threshold because of the risk of Japanese intervention.U.S. Treasury yields: Sharp increases, particularly in the 2-year yield. The 10-year yield could retest its 5.36% peak.Gold: Remains under pressure. As a non-yielding asset, gold is negatively affected by rising real yields. The eight-week low area around $4,110, recorded on September 28, could come back into focus. However, a decline in the geopolitical risk premium could limit losses.Bitcoin and crypto: Selling pressure as risk appetite declines and liquidity expectations tighten. The risk of liquidations in leveraged positions is high, and altcoins could fall more sharply than Bitcoin.U.S. stock markets: Selling pressure. The technology-heavy Nasdaq would be more severely affected as the index most sensitive to higher discount rates.Emerging markets and the Turkish lira: A strong dollar and high U.S. interest rates could trigger outflows from emerging-market assets. Foreign selling on Borsa Istanbul and upward pressure on the exchange rate could follow.
IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS (NORMAL DATA)
Headline inflation at 3.6%–3.7%, monthly core inflation at 0.2%–0.3%, annual core inflation at 2.4%
The market’s current pricing remains intact: no hike in October, followed by a hike in December. The increase in headline inflation is interpreted as “energy-driven and temporary.”
Dollar: Limited movement; the initial reaction quickly stabilizes.Treasury yields: Move sideways.Gold: Geopolitical developments and the dollar remain the key drivers of direction; no significant data-driven impact is expected.Bitcoin: Data-driven volatility is short-lived, and the crypto market returns to its own drivers, including ETF flows and funding rates.Stock markets: Attention shifts to bank earnings released the same day, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, as well as details on supercore inflation.
One point to watch in this scenario is the rounding effect. The BLS reports figures to one decimal place; both 0.26% and 0.34% would appear as “0.3%.” Since algorithms calculate the unrounded figures within seconds, the initial reaction could move in either direction even if the published figure matches expectations.
GOOD (COOL) DATA
Headline inflation at 3.5% or lower, monthly core inflation at 0.1% or lower
Combined with weak employment data, this would strengthen the argument that the Fed is approaching the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The possibility of a December hike would also come under scrutiny.
Dollar: Noticeable weakening.EUR/USD: Moves higher.USD/JPY: Downward correction.Treasury yields: Decline, particularly at the 2-year maturity.Gold: Becomes one of the biggest beneficiaries, supported by both falling real yields and a weaker dollar.Bitcoin and crypto: An upward reaction as liquidity expectations improve. Altcoins could also become more active in this scenario.U.S. stock markets: Rally, with technology stocks leading the way.Emerging markets and the Turkish lira: A weaker dollar supports risk appetite and could have a positive effect on Borsa Istanbul.
MIXED SCENARIO (SHOULD NOT BE OVERLOOKED)
Headline inflation at 3.8% or higher, monthly core inflation at 0.2% or lower
This is one of the more plausible surprises this month. Elevated headline inflation driven by energy alongside subdued core inflation would send the message: “There is an energy shock, but it is not spreading.” Markets could initially react to the headline figure within seconds and then reverse direction based on the core reading. Gold and oil could maintain their upward momentum, while the dollar and Treasury yields could remain directionless. Bitcoin, meanwhile, could recover after an initial decline.
WHAT TO WATCH ON THE SAME DAY AND AFTERWARD (TRT)
Wednesday, October 14, 15:30: U.S. September CPIOctober 14: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley earnings (before the market opens), ASML earningsOctober 14, 21:00: Fed Beige BookOctober 15, 15:30: U.S. September PPIOctober 28, 21:00: Fed interest rate decision, followed by a press conference with Chair Kevin WarshOctober 29, 15:30: U.S. September PCE and advance estimate of third-quarter GDPNovember 3: U.S. midterm elections
INVESTOR CHECKLIST
Check the latest consensus and Cleveland Fed nowcast figures immediately before the release.Look at monthly core CPI first; this is where the market’s main reaction will come from.Monitor airline tickets, transportation, and supercore components to see whether the impact of fuel costs is spreading.Compare the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield before and after the release; this is the clearest indicator of changes in Fed expectations.Remember that the initial market move can reverse within minutes.Spreads widen around data releases, and stop orders may execute at worse-than-expected prices due to slippage. Reducing position sizes in leveraged trades is a fundamental risk management measure.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
What time will the U.S. CPI data be released?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 15:30 TRT.
What is the expected September CPI reading?
Annual headline inflation is expected at 3.6%–3.7%, while annual core inflation is expected at 2.4% and monthly core inflation at 0.2%.
Will the Fed raise interest rates in October?
According to market pricing, the probability is low, at around 20%. However, a sharp increase in core inflation could quickly raise this probability.
How would hot inflation data affect Bitcoin?
It generally reduces risk appetite by pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher, creating selling pressure on Bitcoin.
How would inflation data affect gold?
Hot data puts pressure on gold by raising real yields, while cool data supports gold through falling yields and a weaker dollar. Geopolitical risks can sometimes weaken this relationship.
CONCLUSION
An increase in headline inflation in Wednesday’s data is almost certain; the real question is whether the energy shock is spilling over into core prices. If core inflation comes in line with expectations, the main scenario remains that the Fed will hold rates in October and signal a move in December. An upside surprise in core inflation could trigger sharp repricing across the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets. For a Fed caught between a weakening labor market and persistent energy inflation, this report is one of the most critical turning points in determining the interest rate path for the remainder of the year.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

What Did Bitcoin Do After the Nonfarm Payrolls Data? What Does the Market’s Initial Reaction Tell Us?
The September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released in the U.S. indicated that the slowdown in the labor market is continuing. Nonfarm employment increased by only 29,000 in September. The market expectation was approximately 90,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. In addition, employment figures for July and August were revised downward by a combined 60,000.
Following the release of the data, Bitcoin’s initial reaction was to the upside. The weak employment data strengthened expectations that the possibility of further tightening in the Fed’s monetary policy could decline. Indeed, according to Reuters, markets significantly reduced expectations for a rate hike in October following the data, while risk assets saw positive price action.
The important point for Bitcoin is why bad economic data was received positively. Under normal circumstances, weakness in the labor market can be viewed as a negative development for the health of the economy. However, under the current monetary policy environment, markets are pricing the same data through a different channel. A weakening labor market could mean less pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates, making it a supportive factor for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
However, it is still too early to say that Bitcoin’s rise following the data represents a lasting trend reversal. The Fed’s main problem is not limited to the labor market. Inflation remains above target, while movements in energy prices could lead to a more cautious approach to monetary policy. Reuters also reported that weak employment data reduced expectations for a rate hike in October, but expectations for the December meeting have not been completely eliminated.
For Bitcoin, the reaction in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index will be particularly important from here. If Treasury yields rise persistently despite the weak NFP data, the positive impact on Bitcoin could remain limited. Conversely, a clear easing in yields and the dollar could support a recovery in risk assets.
Therefore, while the initial message from the NFP data for Bitcoin is positive, an important question still remains for the market: Will the Fed really move toward a more dovish path, or will it maintain the risk of tight monetary policy due to elevated inflation despite the weak labor market?
For now, the market’s initial pricing has been favorable for Bitcoin, based on the reduced probability of a Fed rate hike in October following the weak employment data. However, the NFP data alone will not determine whether BTC can turn this move into a lasting uptrend. Going forward, inflation data, Treasury yields, the dollar, and statements from Fed officials will become increasingly important for Bitcoin’s direction.
In summary, the NFP data was priced as a supportive development for Bitcoin in the short term. However, it would not be accurate to interpret the market’s reaction as “the economy is weakening, so Bitcoin will definitely rise.” The key factor will be the impact of the weakening labor market on the Fed’s monetary policy and how this will be transmitted to Bitcoin through Treasury yields and the dollar.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — October 2, 2026
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🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY
U.S. September nonfarm payrolls came in at 29,000, far below the 84,000 expectation, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%; the possibility of a rate hike in October has nearly been taken off the table, and Treasury yields declined.
Wall Street opened strongly: the S&P 500 rose approximately 0.9%, the Dow gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.35%. Nvidia hit a new record and reached a $5.7 trillion market capitalization, while Nike fell 7% on disappointing revenue and 2027 job cuts.
Trump sent 9,000 troops to the Middle East and warned of a possible attack over concerns that a kidnapping attempt could have an Iranian connection. Oil prices fell sharply amid reports of strategic reserve releases: WTI at approximately $89.4, and Brent at approximately $99.9.
Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 and its Ethereum target to $3,028; the bank expects ETF inflows to be directed primarily toward Bitcoin.
The CLARITY Act fell 11 votes short of the 60-vote threshold in the September 15 procedural vote, with 49 votes in favor and 50 against. The opposition votes of four Republican senators proved decisive; Stand With Crypto now supports three Senate candidates in the elections.
The SEC proposed crypto custody rules for investment advisers and funds; the proposal was noted as one of the final actions of the departing chair of the Crypto Task Force. Illinois, meanwhile, delayed its controversial 0.2% crypto tax by six months, subject to court approval.
September's hack losses reached approximately $766 million, making it the worst month of the year; the September 24 attack on Bitget resulted in approximately $387 million in outflows following the compromise of third-party security infrastructure.
In U.S. crypto ETFs, Bitcoin attracted $2.65 billion, Ethereum $832 million, Solana $271 million, and XRP $121 million in inflows during September; the nine-day inflow streak in Bitcoin ETFs, totaling approximately $3.1 billion, ended on September 30 with $149 million in outflows.
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₿ BITCOIN
$BTC rose approximately 3% during the day, reaching the $86,500 range; this is an area seen for the first time since January and for the second time in the past two weeks. The move is being driven by short-position closures, a weakening dollar, and easing Treasury yields; open interest increased by $2.3 billion, signaling renewed bullish interest, but part of the rally is coming from short covering, and its sustainability has not yet been confirmed.
$85,000 is the first line of defense as a reclaimed resistance level; below it, $82,000 is critical support. If $87,500 is broken, momentum could accelerate, while the broader-range high of $126,198, reached on October 6, 2025, remains far away. BTC, which gained approximately 42% in the third quarter, saw its dominance approach 60%. Being approximately 28% below its level from a year ago indicates that the recovery is not yet structural.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH broke above the $2,600 range it had held since the end of September and settled around $2,740-$2,750; its monthly return is approximately 11.9%, ahead of BTC's 9.6% performance. Having risen approximately 54% over the past 90 days, ETH faces a profit-taking risk, which was also visible in the $59.6 million outflow from ETFs on September 30.
SOL was one of the strongest large-cap altcoins of the day at approximately $122, up around 4%, while XRP rose to $1.53, gaining approximately 3.5%. The NEAR ETF was the only category that did not record outflows on September 30, attracting $14 million in inflows.
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📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS
The NEAR Intents cross-chain system was attacked for approximately $3.8 million; the service was halted, and the team announced that it would fully compensate users for their losses.
Evernorth shareholders approved a $1 billion XRP treasury arrangement, marking an important step in the company's progress toward Nasdaq.
A proposal to burn staking rewards was removed from Ethereum's Hegota upgrade; the roadmap has changed.
Robinhood Wallet added tokenized stock swaps through the Arcus RFQ system; Robinhood Crypto management stated that the SEC's innovation exemption restricts the offering of tokenized stocks in the U.S.
Approximately 114 ETH was stolen after multisig signers were compromised in the Aave v3 Loop Safe module. According to CoinDesk, a MetaMask security incident led to the staking exit of validators representing approximately 523,000 ETH; this claim comes from a single source and should therefore await confirmation.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
DoubleZero (2Z) — October 2 (time not published, not confirmed in TRT)
Amount: approximately 1.66 billion 2Z, approximately $113 million
Share of circulating supply: 47.69%
Recipients: Jump Crypto, Malbec Labs, institutional investors, team, contributors, and validators
Selling pressure: 🔴
Note: There is a one-year cliff, followed by linear vesting of approximately 31.1 million tokens per week through 2029. A large portion may have already entered the market during the day; the scope of exchange listings was not separately confirmed.
Ethena (ENA) — Monday, October 5 (time unconfirmed)
Amount: approximately 1.41 billion ENA, estimated at $210-$240 million (not officially confirmed, derived figure)
Share of circulating supply: approximately 14%
Recipients: seed investors, the Ethena Foundation, and two additional investor groups
Selling pressure: 🟡
Note: The foundation completed its monthly vesting and released the remaining investor tokens in a single batch; being transferable does not mean that they will be sold. Figures are inconsistent across sources and should therefore be interpreted cautiously.
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🔭 OUTLOOK AND EVENTS AHEAD
With weekend trading volume thin, the market priced in the week's biggest macroeconomic data as a weak employment reading; the real test will come when the bond market opens on Monday. This time, the weak data was interpreted not as bad news but as a reduction in rate pressure; however, if the same data fuels recession concerns, risk appetite could quickly reverse.
For BTC, a sustained close above $85,000 opens the door to a test of $87,500, while a loss of $82,000 would confirm that today's short-covering rally was predominantly mechanical. Whether ETF inflows resume after the pause on September 30 will be the key indicator determining the sustainability of the move.
On the geopolitical front, tensions with Iran are directly affecting inflation expectations through oil; a military escalation could push oil higher again and crypto lower. October 6 marks the first anniversary of BTC's peak; the fact that price remains approximately 31% below the peak one year into the correction also puts Citi's $113,000 target into the context of its 12-month journey.

U.S. Labor Market Slams the Brakes: Nonfarm Payrolls Come in Far Below Expectations at 29,000
September nonfarm payrolls came in at just 29,000 versus expectations of 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The weak data significantly reduced the possibility of another Fed rate hike at its October meeting.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), under the U.S. Department of Labor, released the September employment report at 15:30 TRT. According to the report, the U.S. economy added 29,000 jobs in September, well below the market expectation of 90,000. In a Dow Jones survey, economists had expected an increase of 84,000 jobs, an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, and annual wage growth of 3.1%.
Unemployment Rate Rose Unexpectedly
Contrary to expectations, the unemployment rate also rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Wage pressures remained limited, with average hourly earnings for private-sector workers increasing by just 5 cents in September, while the average workweek remained unchanged at 34.4 hours.
Revisions Made the Picture Even Weaker
The revisions were the most notable part of the data. The August job gain, initially reported at 162,000, was revised down to 133,000. The July figure was also revised further into negative territory to -10,000. Economists have warned that the unexpectedly strong increase in August may have been driven by seasonal effects that overstated hiring.
Sector Breakdown
The healthcare sector continued to increase employment with a gain of 17,000 jobs, although the pace remained below normal. Construction added 11,000 jobs, while manufacturing recorded a limited increase of 9,000.
Fed Expectations Changed Rapidly
The Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points last month, bringing it to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. This was the first rate hike in more than three years. Following the weak employment data, market pricing changed significantly, with expectations for a rate hike at this month's meeting falling as low as 12%. Economist Mohamed El-Erian also assessed that labor demand was weak across the board and that the data would push the Fed to wait in October.
Treasury Yields Fell Sharply
The bond market delivered the fastest reaction to the data. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, the maturity most sensitive to Fed expectations, fell 7 basis points to 4.716%, while the 10-year Treasury yield declined 6 basis points to 5.176%. The decline came after a global bond sell-off during the week in which the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in 24 years. The weak data triggered a recovery in stocks and bonds, while spot gold also gained approximately 1%.
What Does This Mean for the Crypto Market?
The crypto market was already trading positively ahead of the data. Bitcoin was trading above $86,000 before the release, up 3.4% over 24 hours. Expectations that weak employment data would push the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged and support risk assets, including Bitcoin, had already begun to be priced into the market.
Falling Treasury yields and reduced rate-hike expectations are creating a supportive environment for crypto and equity markets in the short term. However, the fact that the Fed's focus has shifted more toward inflation than employment should not be overlooked. If inflation data continues to come in high, the possibility that the Fed will maintain its tight stance despite weak employment will remain on the table. Therefore, the upcoming inflation data will be decisive for the market's direction ahead of the October meeting.
The next employment report will be released on Friday, November 6, 2026.
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