灯塔说

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The cow ran away
The cow crashed!
$BTC

The news from Iran came too late
Crude oil fell too late
CNM
$CL

If Bitcoin drops below 75,000, I’ll sell everything
and wait for a new round of lows.
So for the next few days, I’ll open high risk/reward long positions with 75,000 as my stop-loss.

At the same time, some altcoins that are holding up well are great buys too,
such as $LINK $UNI $NEAR

There was nothing new in last night's Fed meeting.
Warsh is just keeping us guessing.

What I'm really focused on is the US-Iran situation.
And oil prices.

Lately, Trump keeps threatening to start a war after the midterm elections,
escalating tensions.
Last night, Vance wrote another letter to Iran.

I'm wondering if it's all just been talk lately,

and whether a sudden turnaround in negotiations is coming,
with oil prices reversing and falling.

Anyway, lately it's either a matter of waiting to go long or staying out of the market.

Gold probably won't fall any further, right?
If it drops more, I'm afraid I'll get liquidated.$XAU

BTC longs are temporarily out of danger
For today, watch for a continuation toward around 82K
Warsh is speaking tonight, and December rate-hike expectations will depend on his stance
$BTC

On October 22, the Nasdaq fell about 2.6%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to around 4.95%. This points to investors seeking safe havens.
On October 21, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $525 million, but on October 22 they shifted to net outflows of about $382 million. ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $17.9 million on October 22.
On October 22, oil prices continued to rise amid tensions in the Middle East, while tech stocks saw a significant pullback. This suggests that safe-haven buying likely contributed to the decline in bond yields.
The Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting on October 27–28, and the U.S. preliminary third-quarter GDP estimate and September PCE data will be released on October 29.

Why is gold dropping like this?
Aren't they all about to go to war?
A multinational military exercise on such a massive scale,
and I’m screwed again 😂😂😂
$XAU

What should we expect from tonight’s CPI?
The previous reading was 3.4, and the forecast is 3.6. Market movements over the past few days have already reflected the market’s assumption that inflation rebounded in September.
So as long as the figure is in line with expectations, there shouldn’t be much of a bearish surprise.
The key is core CPI, which is forecast at 0.2. This measures inflation excluding energy.
As long as core CPI doesn’t exceed expectations, the impact from energy will be in line with what the market expects.

To sum up, watch the core CPI figure. Above 0.2 would be bearish and raise expectations of an October rate hike. At or below 0.2 would be in line with expectations, and the market is expected to find a floor and rebound.
$XAU $CL

Gold reached the previously mentioned support zone around 4065–4080 and made its first rebound.
If it confirms that the decline has stopped,
gold may finally see a rebound.
$XAU

One long-form read per week:

This week, I read an article about AI. It mainly addresses
“Does AI really have a bubble?”

When AI investments truly become oversupplied, who will ultimately pay the bill?

According to estimates, cumulative investment in US AI data centers, chips, power, and network infrastructure from 2025 to 2032 could reach an astonishing $10.3 trillion. On average, that would be about 3.63% of the US GDP per year. Measured against economic scale, this even surpasses the construction booms in US history—railways, highways, electrification, and communications infrastructure.

So can AI earn enough money to justify all this? If it can’t, then who will be responsible for the money already spent?

When investments rely on cash flow,
when the bubble bursts,
first and foremost, shareholders are harmed.
But when more and more investment starts to be supported by debt, SPVs, private credit, and asset securitization,
the story changes.
Because when the next real turning point in the AI cycle arrives,
what we may need to watch won’t be just the Nasdaq.
It will be—

whether cracks appear first in the credit market.

If they do,
that crack may be the signal that this round of AI’s mega-capex supercycle has truly entered its second half.

Although this kind of risk hasn’t appeared yet,
the risks are becoming harder and harder to see.
$BTC

The nonfarm payrolls release value deviated seriously from expectations
and is extremely bearish for the U.S. dollar.
Although expectations for further rate hikes continue to be lowered,
being far below expectations instead makes the market worry whether an economic recession is impacting things.
After a modest spike higher, the market consolidates—possibly because the market has already priced in the positive move in advance over the past two days.

If macro factors don’t cause a breakout,
then be careful: a move that keeps trying but doesn’t achieve results.

After the Wednesday PCE data came out, expectations for a rate hike in October fell from 66% to the current 27.7%.
The nonfarm payrolls data tonight will refocus the market again.
But judging from the BTC rally from last night to today,
the market seems to be anticipating that tonight’s nonfarm payrolls will come in within expectations.
There probably won’t be strong data or numbers that are unexpectedly cold.

As long as employment data does not see a strong rebound,
the probability of a rate hike will not rise significantly.

So, if tonight’s employment report comes in within the range, first check whether the hourly wage rate also falls below expectations.
If it’s above expectations, then don’t get overly bullish.

This evening’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): market expectations are for an increase of 90,000 jobs. I think the published figure to watch is 80,000–100,000.

A Reuters survey expects 90,000, the Dow Jones survey expects 84,000, and this week’s ADP report is also 90,000. Compared with last month’s 162,000, I’m more inclined to believe hiring is cooling, but it’s not yet at the point of a slowdown.

However, a pullback doesn’t necessarily mean good news—markets were already waiting for a pullback.

To add fuel to the rebound for BTC and ETH, even if the result matches expectations, we still need to look at wages: if the hourly wage month-over-month falls to 0.2%, and the unemployment rate stays at 4.1%, I would view this combination more positively.

So, if employment numbers meet expectations, then wages are what may determine tonight’s surprise.

In sync: Below expectations—tonight’s released U.S. core PCE year-over-year rate is lower than expected, hitting a new six-month low.
It eases the pressure for further rate hikes.
Next, all eyes are on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for September to be released on October 2.
As long as expectations stay below 60%, Wosh’s style will hold steady and do nothing.
As long as there isn’t another rate hike, the market will improve and the pullback may end early.

Also, crude oil has already gone flat from the short side; preparing for a swing trade. The U.S. and Iran are locked in a standoff, neither backing down.
If it rebounds, look for a higher point to short again.$BTC $CL