CryptoQuant Quicktake

The Fear and Greed Index is a widely used sentiment indicator that quantifies investor psychology in the cryptocurrency market. This analysis refers to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index provided by Alternative.me. The index measures Bitcoin-centered market sentiment by combining multiple factors, including volatility, market momentum and volume, social media activity, Bitcoin dominance, and Google search trends. By integrating these components, it reflects not only price movements but also investor risk appetite and market attention.

Currently, the index has fallen to an extreme fear level rarely seen in historical cycles. Similar conditions appeared during major stress events such as the 2018 bear market bottom, the March 2020 COVID crash, and the 2022 FTX collapse. This indicates that market participants are prioritizing risk avoidance and remain cautious about re-entering the market.

From a behavioral finance perspective, this reflects loss aversion and herd behavior. After experiencing significant losses, investors tend to reduce risk exposure and delay re-entry. As a result, sentiment often recovers more slowly than price.

Extreme fear does not necessarily signal an immediate recovery. Historically, such conditions have marked the early phase of a bottom formation process rather than the start of a new uptrend. Recovery typically requires time for confidence and capital flows to gradually return, suggesting the market is currently in a psychological reset phase rather than a confirmed recovery.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Are we witnessing the final capitulation that precedes the next leg up, or will this trendline finally break down?

The 1–3 month cohort is currently sitting at -20.85% unrealized PnL, meaning recent buyers are, on average, deeply underwater. This places the metric right at the lower boundary of the descending structure that has been respected since mid-2023, where Bitcoin found local bottoms and rallied.

That structure is important.

Notice how each successive drawdown (-12%, -15%, -20%) has formed lower lows in the P/L margin, yet Bitcoin's actual price has maintained higher lows structurally. This divergence suggests speculative momentum has been fading over time.

Now we are once again testing the downside extreme.

Historically, when this cohort moves below -20%, stress increases. These are not long-term holders, they are the most reactive participants. If losses persist, the probability of capitulation rises.

Another key level, the short-term traders Realized Price sits at $88K. As long as price trades below that level, this group remains underwater, which creates latent sell pressure on bounces. A sustained reclaim above $88K would flip this cohort back into profit and likely improve market psychology quickly.

So the market stands at an inflection point:

Is this another cyclical reset within a broader bullish structure?

Or is the repeated formation of lower profitability highs signaling deeper fragility?

We are in stress. And stress levels tend to precede resolution.

Written by MorenoDV_

Data from Binance indicates that daily trading volume reached approximately 486,000 ETH, with Ethereum trading near $2,050, while the Z-Score registered a reading of around -0.39.

This trading volume level is below the monthly average, a fact corroborated by the negative Z-Score reading. Values below zero indicate that current activity is lower than the 30-day moving average. Historically, such readings reflect periods of relative calm in liquidity and often coincide with consolidation or repositioning phases by market participants, rather than strong upward momentum.

From a price perspective, the chart shows that Ethereum has retreated from levels above $3,000 in previous months to its current range near $2,050, suggesting a clear corrective move. Interestingly, this price decline was not accompanied by a strong and sustained surge in trading volume. On the contrary, volume has remained within moderate ranges, with only temporary spikes, suggesting that the selling pressure is not driven by widespread panic but rather by a gradual unwinding process.

When a negative Z-Score reading coincides with relatively stable volume, it often reflects a market environment that tends to build a base before any subsequent significant move. In other words, the market may be in a quiet consolidation phase, or at least in the process of absorbing the previous move.

Written by Arab Chain

When I isolate the last month of Binance inflow data, the composition of selling pressure becomes very explicit. On average, short-term holders sent roughly 8.7K BTC per day into Binance. That figure alone explains most of the visible sell pressure and confirms that this move was driven by recent participants reacting to price, not by long-term conviction breaking.

The value-band data sharpens this picture. The bulk of inflows came from fish and shark-sized entities, averaging about 3.5K BTC and 2.4K BTC per day, respectively. Together, they account for the majority of exchange inflows, showing that selling was widely distributed across mid-sized participants rather than concentrated in a single cohort. Shrimp and crab wallets contributed meaningfully but remained secondary, while whale inflows averaged under 1K BTC, making them a minority source of pressure.

This structure matters. It tells us the market wasn’t facing coordinated whale distribution or long-term holder capitulation. Instead, short-term capital was rotating toward liquidity as risk appetite contracted — a classic cyclical response during drawdowns. Binance functioned as the execution venue for that de-risking, not the origin of systemic stress.

In short, this month’s selling pressure was intense, but it was fragmented and reactive. Recent buyers exited, mid-sized players managed exposure, and long-term holders largely stayed inactive. That combination explains why downside pressure increased without turning into disorderly liquidation — fear was present, but conviction never fully left the market.

Written by Crazzyblockk

This chart highlights a critical structural threshold for Bitcoin: the realized price of highly active addresses, currently near 78K. This level represents the aggregate cost basis of participants who transact most frequently and typically react fastest to changes in market conditions. As such, it functions as a key sentiment and positioning divider rather than a simple technical reference.

At present, spot price is trading decisively below this realized level. That positioning matters. When price remains under the cost basis of highly active addresses, these participants are, on average, holding unrealized losses. Historically, this state alters behavior from absorption to distribution, increasing overhead supply on any upside attempt. As a result, the 78K zone transitions from support into resistance.

For the bullish thesis and broader market recovery to regain structural validity, price must reclaim and sustain acceptance above this realized price. A successful recovery above 78K would indicate that highly active addresses have returned to profit, materially reducing sell-side pressure and allowing demand to stabilize the market from higher levels.

Conversely, repeated failures to reclaim this level carry asymmetric risk. Each unsuccessful breakout reinforces 78K as a supply zone and increases the probability of downside continuation. In that scenario, price tends to gravitate toward the next dominant realized anchor, which sits near 50K and corresponds to the long-term holders’ realized price. This level historically represents the zone where selling pressure meaningfully declines due to stronger holder conviction.

In this context, 78K is the defining level. Acceptance above it opens the door to recovery. Persistent rejection below it increases the likelihood of deeper mean reversion toward long-term holder cost basis before a sustainable bottom can form.

Written by Crazzyblockk

When short-term holders start bleeding, Bitcoin typically finds its floor. That pattern held across every major correction since 2014, but something different is unfolding now.

Five distinct bearish cycles show where short-term holder losses exceeded thirty percent. The 2014-2015 collapse hit 83% losses. The 2021-2022 bear reached 71%. The 2018-2019 drawdown touched 62%, and 2019-2020 hit 57%. Historically, when panic pushed losses between 57% and 84%, Bitcoin carved durable bottoms.

Today looks different. The current correction peaked at just 40% losses for short-term holders, nearly thirty points below the 68% historical average. Price found support at $66,928 and recovered above $70,000, with losses now at 31%. Long-term holders remain 27% profitable with zero capitulation signals.

Timing reinforces this divergence. Previous bear markets averaged 378 days. We're only 88 days into this pullback. The shallow depth and rapid stabilization suggest market maturation or participants learning that panic selling marks the worst exit points.

What makes this unusual isn't just milder losses but speed of stabilization. When short-term holders hit 83% underwater in 2015, recovery took over a year. At 71% in 2022, months passed before relief. Now at 40% maximum, selling pressure appears exhausted.

The data points to something between correction and full bear cycle, with participants refusing panic at levels that previously triggered capitulation. Whether this represents structural evolution or temporary resilience remains uncertain, but the contrast with history is undeniable.

Written by Crazzyblockk

The correction in Bitcoin and across the cryptocurrency market continues, reinforcing the impression of a bear market that is taking hold and extending further.

On February 6, as Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 mark, it surpassed a drawdown of over 52% from its all-time high, marking a significant point in the current corrective phase.

On February 5, we observed a sharp increase in BTC inflows to exchanges, a direct consequence of the panic that affected some investors, both institutional and retail.

These massive flows significantly contributed to accelerating the short-term correction.

On Binance, a widely accessible platform representing the largest trading volumes, inflows reached 25,000 BTC.

By comparison, Coinbase Advanced, a US-regulated platform primarily used by professional and institutional investors, also recorded substantial flows on the same day, reaching 17,600 BTC, five times more than at the beginning of the month.

This period was therefore challenging for all types of investors.

However, the situation has improved notably since then. Inflows on both platforms have dropped significantly.

On Binance, they fell to 8,400 BTC, a threefold decrease. The decline is even more pronounced on Coinbase Advanced, where inflows have dropped to just 1,400 BTC, a tenfold reduction.

This trend suggests that the worst may be over for now. With selling pressure from these massive flows largely eased, a rebalancing is underway. If demand strengthens in the coming days, Bitcoin could gradually regain momentum and continue the modest recovery already underway, as long as this dynamic remains stable.

Written by Darkfost

STH SOPR recently moved below the 0.95 capitulation zone and has now recovered back toward the 1.0 level.

At this stage, the key variable is whether SOPR can establish sustained positioning above 1.0 for several consecutive days.

A continued hold above 1.0 would indicate that short-term holder selling pressure has largely been absorbed, increasing the probability of a technical rebound extension.

Conversely, failure to maintain support above 1.0 would reopen the risk of range-bound price action or additional downside.

Importantly, this recent capitulation did not reach the intensity observed on August 5, 2024, when SOPR declined toward the 0.9 region (green zone).

That prior move reflected deeper loss realization and a stronger market reset.

Therefore, from a higher time-frame perspective, the possibility of further downside cannot yet be fully ruled out.

The most probable scenario at this stage is a successful reclaim of 1.0 leading to a short-term technical rebound, followed by a broader corrective phase.

A more structurally sound bottom is likely to form only after a deeper capitulation event closer to the 0.9 region.

For now, sustained stabilization above 1.0 remains the primary short-term confirmation signal.

Written by miracleyoon

📰 Daily Market Update:

As Bitcoin navigates a period of sharp volatility, trader behavior on Binance and institutional ETF flows are telling two very different stories.

📊 [BTC] Binance Retail Traders Daily Buy/Sell Amount

This chart measures the net profit and loss of short-term Bitcoin holders by tracking their BTC balances moving to Binance, offering insight into short-term investor behavior and volatility.

🔬 Key Observation

📉 The chart highlights a major selling event on February 6, where retail-driven sell pressure exceeded 28,000 BTC, coinciding with Bitcoin’s drop below $64,000.

📉 Another notable selling wave followed on February 13, with sell pressure surpassing 12,000 BTC, despite Bitcoin trading above $67,000 at the time.

📉 This indicates that many short-term holders were still exiting positions even as price attempted to stabilize.

⚠️ Importantly, This move aligned with the Bitcoin STH MVRV hitting its lowest reading since May 2022 at 0.72, a level I covered extensively in a prior market update.

📊 [Bitcoin ETF] Daily Netflow Trend

This chart shows the daily net flows of spot Bitcoin ETFs in USD, serving as a key proxy for institutional demand.

📈 Positive netflows → real Bitcoin purchases in the spot market → upward price pressure

📉 Negative netflows → Bitcoin selling → downward pressure

🔬 Key Observation

📈 The chart highlights the first positive ETF netflow day since January, recorded on February 6.

📈 Institutional activity was led by BlackRock IBIT, which posted net inflows exceeding $4.8B, making it the dominant contributor.

📈 In second place came Fidelity FBTC, recording approximately $1.31B in positive netflows.

🧠 Final Conclusion

Historically, periods where short-term investors realize heavy losses tend to trigger capitulation-style selling, driven mainly by fear.

These phases are often chaotic, but they also create conditions where long-term investors step in, using weakness to reload and increase exposure to crypto assets.

Written by Amr Taha

The decline in inflation to 2.4% in January signals that quantitative tightening (QT), which momentarily ended on December 1, 2025, has taken effect. However, the market did not react with euphoria, as quantitative easing (QE) did not materialize as expected. Consequently, a cautious stance prevails: investors are de-risking in the U.S. or seeking refuge in Treasuries, with the 10-year yield retreating to 4.08%. This defensive flow has, in part, structurally migrated toward Gold and Silver.

This scenario only confirms that, during macroeconomic turmoil, capital seeks protection and a flight from risk. Therefore, we utilize the When The BTC Is Hedge (WTBIH) indicator to identify whether Bitcoin is currently acting as a hedge or if investors view it as a risk to be avoided."

WHAT THE WTBIH METRICS REVEAL

◾ CPI % YoY (2.4%) → Confirms the disinflationary trend, stabilizing the macroeconomic foundation.

◾ Treasury Safe-Haven Flow (24) → Still below the Macro Trigger (30). Global institutional "panic" hasn't fully set in yet, but the flow is building.

◾ Crypto Spec Index (18.06) → Even while safely below the Spec Limit (40), speculation is returning healthily, without "froth" or over-leverage. However, the increasing action from those betting on shorts triggers an alert for a major BTC correction.

◾ WTBIH Conviction Level (72.06) → CONVICTION ZONE ACTIVATED. The index has breached the 70-point threshold. Bitcoin is now technically acting as a Hedge, even before the macro-protection flow (30) officially triggers.

CONCLUSION

The WTBIH at 72.06 confirms: Bitcoin has activated the conviction zone and is already acting as a Hedge. A stable CPI validate the asset as protection even before the final macro trigger.

Note: WTBIH ensures continuity via Crypto Spec (daily), CPI (monthly), and Treasury Flow (biz days).

Written by GugaOnChain

The decline in inflation to 2.4% in January signals that quantitative tightening (QT), which momentarily ended on December 1, 2025, has taken effect. However, the market did not react with euphoria, as quantitative easing (QE) did not materialize as expected. Consequently, a cautious stance prevails: investors are de-risking in the U.S. or seeking refuge in Treasuries, with the 10-year yield retreating to 4.08%. This defensive flow has, in part, structurally migrated toward Bitcoin.

This is evidenced by the on-chain indicator Bitcoin: Demand from Accumulator Addresses, which recorded 387.93k BTC accumulated over 30 days—a volume that exceeds the monthly average and confirms the confidence of large-scale holders. During Bear Markets, capital seeks strategic anchoring rather than quick profits. Therefore, we utilize the Indicator When The BTC Is Hedge (WTBIH) to identify whether Bitcoin is currently acting as a hedge.

WHAT THE WTBIH METRICS REVEAL

◾CPI % YoY (2.4%) → Confirms the disinflationary trend, stabilizing the macroeconomic foundation.

◾Treasury Safe-Haven Flow (24) → Still below the Macro Trigger (30). Global institutional "panic" hasn't fully set in yet, but the flow is building.

◾Crypto Spec Index (18.06) → Even while safely below the Spec Limit (40), speculation is returning healthily, without creating "froth" or over-leverage.

◾WTBIH Conviction Level (72.06) → CONVICTION ZONE ACTIVATED. The index has breached the 70-point threshold. Bitcoin is now technically acting as a Hedge, even before the macro-protection flow (30) officially triggers.

CONCLUSION

The WTBIH confirms Bitcoin’s maturity. The CPI decline solidified the asset as a "Digital Treasury." Despite shorts on the downtrend, speculative exhaustion and strong accumulation indicate that investors are locking in value to mitigate risks, waiting for the macro to trigger the definitive global flow.

Note: WTBIH ensures continuity via Crypto Spec (daily), CPI (monthly), and Treasury Flow (biz days).

Written by GugaOnChain

The decline in inflation to 2.4% in January signals that quantitative tightening (QT), which momentarily ended on December 1, 2025, has taken effect. However, the market did not react with euphoria, as quantitative easing (QE) did not materialize as expected. Consequently, a cautious stance prevails: investors are de-risking in the U.S. or seeking refuge in Treasuries, with the 10-year yield retreating to 4.08%. This defensive flow has, in part, structurally migrated toward Bitcoin.

This is evidenced by the on-chain indicator Bitcoin: Demand from Accumulator Addresses, which recorded 387.93k BTC accumulated over 30 days—a volume that exceeds the monthly average and confirms the confidence of large-scale holders. During Bear Markets, capital seeks strategic anchoring rather than quick profits. Therefore, we utilize the Indicator When The BTC Is Hedge (WTBIH) to identify whether Bitcoin is currently acting as a hedge.

WHAT THE WTBIH METRICS REVEAL

◾CPI % YoY (2.4%) → Validates disinflation and removes the risk premium driven by uncertainty.

◾Treasury Safe-Haven Flow (24) → Below the Macro Trigger (30); indicates that the global protection flow is still forming.

◾Crypto Spec Index (1.74) → Drastically below the Spec Limit (40); confirms a market cleared of euphoria and ready for institutional absorption.

◾WTBIH Conviction Level (55.74) → The Conviction Zone (70) will be reached when the Treasury Safe-Haven Flow breaks the 30-point trigger. Currently, the index signals technical accumulation but does not yet classify BTC as a hedge.

CONCLUSION

The WTBIH confirms Bitcoin’s maturity. The CPI decline solidified the asset as a "Digital Treasury." Despite shorts on the downtrend, speculative exhaustion and strong accumulation show investors locking in value to mitigate risks, waiting for the macro to trigger the definitive global flow.

Note: The WTBIH ensures daily continuity by consolidating: Crypto Spec (daily), CPI % YoY (monthly), and Treasury Flow (business days).

Written by GugaOnChain

The start of the year is marked by a clear lack of demand in the cryptocurrency market, reflecting a much more cautious stance from investors. This contraction in liquidity across the crypto sector is being strongly felt.

On the spot Bitcoin ETF side, after two years driven by large capital inflows and strong speculative momentum, early 2026 looks more like a phase of risk reduction. Market participants appear to be reassessing their risk exposure in a more uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitic environment.

Recent data shows that investors are largely staying on the sidelines, with cumulative flows turning negative in 2026. Compared with the relatively solid levels seen in 2025, the year 2026 is starting with around $1.8B in net outflows.

The contrast with the dynamics observed in 2024 and early 2025 is striking. Those periods were marked by sustained capital inflows and a significant expansion in market liquidity. However, it is important to note that 2025 ended on a more negative tone.

Cumulative ETF inflows declined noticeably from about $27B to $20B by year end, already signaling a slowdown in momentum before the start of 2026. From this perspective, the current weakness appears more like an extension of a decelerating trend than a sudden break.

The absence of this liquidity is now being felt in the spot market. ETF flows played a meaningful role in expanding market liquidity. With this demand channel currently weakened, spot markets are becoming more sensitive to selling pressure and short term volatility.

A sustained return of ETF inflows would likely be a key catalyst for restoring a stronger market structure, improving liquidity conditions, and rebuilding investor confidence.

Written by Darkfost

The 1-year change in total whale $BTC holdings has turned increase trend again.

This is a pattern typical of the early stages of a bull market.

Whales tend to buy in the early and mid stages of a bull market, then begin selling when the market reaches near peak.

They have now turned net buying again, indicating that we are in the early stages of a bull market, not a bear market.

Written by CW8900

This is the Market Cycle Signals chart.

Looking at the first chart, the Distribution Signal has started to move downward.

What does this imply?

Now take a look at the second chart.

This represents the situation during the third halving cycle. After the double top formation, the Distribution Signal gradually declines. Please refer to the red box.

However, even as the Bitcoin price continued to fall, the Capitulation Signal and the Accumulation Signal were rising.

Only after Bitcoin reached its cycle low of $15K during the third halving season did the Accumulation Signal meet the price and start moving downward. Please see the blue box.

The third chart shows the current situation.

At the moment, the Accumulation Signal is around the $54K price level. Based on the previous cycle, it appears that there may still be room for it to move higher.

There is a possibility that the Bitcoin price and the Accumulation Signal could meet above the $60K level.

However, it is still unclear exactly when that intersection might occur.

Let’s watch closely to see whether this cycle unfolds in a manner similar to the previous one.

Written by CoinNiel

This week’s market was defined less by buying strength and more by a chain reaction of fear. Thin order books and crowded positioning amplified the sell-off, triggering liquidations and forced repositioning. The rebound that followed was driven primarily by short covering and distortion repair, rather than fresh spot demand. The key question shifted from “price is up” to “why is it up?”

Sentiment has moved from panic toward doubt. Extreme fear often produces reflex rallies, but those are typically mechanical reversals, not durable trend changes. What matters now is not the magnitude of the bounce, but whether flows can sustain price stabilization.

Macro conditions continue to act as a volatility amplifier. Slowing U.S. growth signals, cross-asset de-risking, dollar and real yield fluctuations, and liquidity concerns remain tightly linked to crypto positioning. Digital assets are not being treated as safe havens; they are moving within broader liquidity dynamics.

Three conditions will determine whether stabilization can take hold:

1. Spot flow continuity — multi-day inflows with depth, not isolated spikes.

2. Quality of leverage rebuilding — gradual and balanced, not crowded or overheated.

3. Reaction around key ranges — whether price can hold reclaimed levels rather than simply bounce.

Deep fear creates rebound potential, but it does not restore trust. Short squeezes may occur, yet they do not guarantee structural reversal.

For now, the market is not asking for a powerful rally. It is testing whether selling pressure can be absorbed. The base case remains a fragile stabilization attempt. If sustained spot demand emerges and leverage rebuilds responsibly, that view must be reassessed.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

MicroStrategy Goes Underwater for First Time Since October 2023.

With BTC trading at $69K while MSTR's cost basis sits at $76K, Saylor's treasury strategy is underwater for the first time in 16 months. During the 2022 bear market, MSTR weathered a drawdown of 50% below cost basis. The current 9% gap is relatively modest, but timing matters more than magnitude. As a result, it's facing its first serious profitability test since October 2023.

Q1 2026 purchase activity will determine whether the strategy continues or pivots.

Written by burakkesmeci

On-chain data reveals a significant structural shift in XRP holdings on Binance. The attached chart indicates that exchange reserves have plummeted to 2.5 Billion XRP, marking the lowest level recorded since early 2024.

Key Insights:

Massive Drop from 2024 Highs: In November 2024, Binance reserves peaked at over 3.2 Billion XRP. The outflow of approximately 700 million coins over the last 15 months suggests a drastic reduction in sell-side liquidity.

Accumulation Signal: Declining exchange reserves are typically interpreted as a bullish signal. This trend implies that investors are moving assets off the exchange into cold storage (self-custody), prioritizing long-term holding over immediate trading.

Conclusion:

Despite price volatility, reserves hitting a 2-year low creates a potential “Supply Shock.” With fewer coins available for sale on the world’s largest exchange, any resurgence in demand could trigger significant price appreciation.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is currently hovering around 9.6, a level that has repeatedly acted as a structural pivot in past cycles.

But the signal is directional.

Historically, when SSR declines from higher levels and reaches this zone, Bitcoin tends to find support. Why? Because a falling SSR means stablecoin supply is strengthening relative to BTC’s market cap. In other words, sidelined liquidity is building. As the ratio compresses toward ~9.5 from above, buying power improves, and price has repeatedly stabilized or reversed upward in this area.

However, the opposite has also been true.

When SSR approaches this level from below and fails to break sustainably above it, the zone acts as resistance. In those cases, stablecoin relative strength begins to fade, liquidity stops expanding, and Bitcoin has historically printed local tops shortly after.

So ~9.5 is not inherently bullish or bearish.

It’s a liquidity equilibrium zone.

Written by MorenoDV_

Bitcoin has taken a big hit during the recent market downturn. Since its all-time high on October 6, 2025, its total market value has dropped by about 50%.

This decline reflects growing economic pressure and ongoing weakness in tech stocks and other riskier investments. But while prices have been volatile, something important is happening behind the scenes: crypto is becoming more established as a real wealth service.

For example, data from Nexo shows:

- $863 million in total credit issued: From January 2025 to January 2026, users borrowed nearly $1 billion.

- Over 30% of users return: More than 30% of borrowers come back, showing they use the service regularly instead of one-time shoppers.

Even with large price swings, this data suggests that crypto is gradually developing into a steady and reliable financial product.

Written by maartunn