Joao Wedson

⚠️Dogecoin is in a price bottoming phase!

This metric has been one of the most accurate throughout Dogecoin’s history. Every time $DOGE approached it or spent just a few days below it, major price bottoms followed.

The latest signal will be triggered whenever Dogecoin drops below $0.08.

The smartest investors will accumulate a lot of DOGE below $0.08.

And I’m warning you ahead of time.

So accumulate during the capitulation phase and hold this crazy memecoin for a long time!

Follow the Alpha on@Alphractal (https://x.com/Alphractal ) and thank me later!
Alphractal.com

Several times in recent history, Bitcoin started falling before the S&P 500. In many moments, BTC acted as an early warning signal for selling pressure in traditional markets. This became even more evident after the Corona Dump in 2020, when the correlation between crypto, global liquidity, and risk assets became much more sensitive. Bitcoin trades 24/7. The S&P 500 does not. That is why, when liquidity starts drying up, BTC often feels it first. Maybe crypto is not just “more volatile.” Maybe it is the first market to scream when risk starts leaving the table. Alphractal.com

Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit has reached a new low.

But the Supply in Loss has still not reached the same level seen when BTC hit $60K in early February.

Few short-term investors are currently in profit, but February’s capitulation was much worse.

Alphractal.com

On-chain signals continue to work extremely well. Metrics like Reserve Risk Indicators are a great example, especially for understanding sentiment across UTXO-based blockchains. Those who took these signals seriously had the chance to reduce exposure in assets like $BTC , $LTC and $DOGE at much better moments. Now, the same data is starting to show where accumulation opportunities may appear again. Reserve Risk helps measure long-term holder conviction versus market pricing. When readings are low, risk/reward has historically been more attractive. When readings are high, the market is often overheated. When combined with activity measures inspired by VOCDD and MVOCDD, we can better identify when long-term holders are quiet, when they are distributing, and when the market is entering a more interesting accumulation zone. This is why on-chain data still matters. It does not predict every candle. But it helps identify when the crowd is late, when holders are selling, and when the risk/reward starts to change. Data > Narratives. Alphractal.com

Few addresses are truly accumulating right now compared to 60 days ago.

Strategy (MSTR) may keep buying, but its accumulation is basically insignificant when compared to the scale of the entire Bitcoin blockchain.

Real accumulation usually happens in moments of extreme fear, when the crowd is convinced that Bitcoin is dead.

Alphractal.com

Bitcoin’s Market Cap Growth Rate has been declining throughout each cycle.

But it’s not just that. It is also a narrowing effect, meaning that with each cycle, upside moves tend to become weaker, and downside moves tend to become weaker as well.

We may be close to a bottom, but according to this rule, the bottom has not happened yet.

Let’s keep following the Alpha signals!

Alphractal.com

Bitcoin has just lost the Short-Term Holder Realized Price again.

Bulls tried to defend the $78,000 region, but if Bitcoin stays below this level, the higher probability is a new capitulation phase, as bears are showing signs of strength.

Always seek the Alpha.
Alphractal.com

Is the Bitcoin cycle dead? Many keep repeating that. But for now, the Bitcoin Repetition Fractal Cycle and the Accumulation-Distribution Cycle Index are still holding. And I understand how hard it is to believe that right now. The market is designed to make the majority doubt exactly before confirmation. But Alpha-level metrics are not showing a “cycle death.” They are simply following Bitcoin’s natural course, just as they have in previous cycles. Bitcoin: Repetition Fractal Cycle ⏳ Bitcoin: Accumulation-Distribution Cycle Index, ADCI ⏳ We have less than 5 months to find out whether this entire psychological simulation the crypto community is living through was just noise… or simply another fractal repetition before confirmation. Alphractal.com

The balance of addresses holding more than $10M across all stablecoins has not been rising since the crypto market reached all-time highs in October 2025.

Stablecoins are the real liquidity heart of crypto. You should be paying closer attention to them. Alphractal.com

The on-chain volume of USDT and USDC across all blockchains is declining. Even with prediction markets growing, the real volume of stablecoins has not reached the levels we saw at the end of 2021. Alphractal.com

Satoshi Nakamoto is Hal Finney, or Hal Finney is Satoshi Nakamoto? Nobody knows. But if Hal was Satoshi, maybe Bitcoin’s real supply should not be discussed only as 21M BTC anymore. The protocol supply is still ~21M. But the market does not trade the protocol limit. It trades the available float. Current circulating supply is around 20.02M BTC. Now add the structure: ETFs + funds: ~2M BTC Miners: ~1.8M BTC Exchanges: ~2.6M to 2.8M BTC Public treasuries: ~1.2M BTC Satoshi Nakamoto: ~700K to 1.1M BTC Potentially lost / never moved coins: ~6.5M to 7.39M BTC, including Satoshi A large part of Bitcoin is lost, dormant, locked in long-term hands, sitting in ETFs, miners, treasuries or exchange reserves. So the real question is not how many BTC exist. It is how many BTC are actually available to be bought, sold and repriced. And that number is much smaller than most people think. Bitcoin does not need everyone to buy. It only needs the available supply to keep shrinking while demand keeps rising.