MrT2026

📊 MACRO FLOW RADAR 24H — 04/09/2026
🚀 Capital flow is leaning toward Crypto, but not dominant yet. BTC is rising strongly, equities are moving up as well, and USD/rates are cooling off; gold is also being clearly supported ahead of tonight’s U.S. NFP.
🔎 Flow Summary
• 🟢 Inflow: Crypto
• ⚪ Outflow: unclear
• 🏆 Market Flow Winner: Crypto, but not dominant yet
• 🌐 Risk Regime: Mixed, leaning Risk-on
• 📈 Flow Score: +60, leaning Risk-on
📌 Key evidence
• 📊 Equities: S&P 500 +1.06%, Nasdaq +1.40% in the latest session.
• 💵 USD/Rates: 2Y and 10Y both fell, USD weaker → supporting risk assets and gold.
• 🥇 Gold: spot around $4,468/oz, after a session gain of about 2%.
• ₿ BTC: Coinbase ticker around $81,033. Coinbase 24h stats: open $77,781, last $81,027, high $82,283, low $77,436. BTC 24h calculated: +4.17%.
⚡ Main catalyst
The market is scaling back expectations of a hawkish Fed, pulling yields/USD lower. However, U.S. NFP at 19:30 Vietnam time is the biggest reversal risk.
🔮 Forward Scenario 24h
• ⚖️ Mixed / no clear winner: 30%
• ₿ Crypto continues to lead: 25%
• 📈 Equities lead: 20%
• 🥇 Gold leads: 15%
• 💵 USD/Rates return as winner: 10%
👉 No dominant scenario.
⚠️ Reversal warning
1️⃣ Hot NFP/wages + clear DXY rise + 2Y/10Y rebound ≥5 bps → USD/Rates could regain the winner role.
2️⃣ BTC loses momentum while equities weaken and yields rise → Crypto loses confirmation.
📌 Not a buy/sell recommendation.

₿ BTC-USD UPDATE | 09/04/2026
BTC just had a strong upswing, but it’s not time to FOMO yet.
📊 Multi-timeframe picture
• D1: TRANSITION
• H4: BUY
• H1: TRANSITION
D1 has expanded upward significantly, and H4 still maintains a bullish structure. However, H1 is currently in a pullback and has not reclaimed the most recent lower-high.
📍 Coinbase price at the time of check: ~80,832 USD
🧱 Key zones
• Support: 80,346 – 80,611
• Resistance: 81,768 – 82,283
Price is currently sitting between two decision zones → this is not a good spot to chase.
🔥 What does the uptrend scenario need?
To confirm bullish continuation, H1 needs:
Close above 81,438
→ then have follow-through or a retest that holds the zone
If this happens, the Pullback Continuation setup becomes notably more interesting.
⚠️ Invalidation
If H1 closes below 80,346, the current bullish watch is invalidated.
🗓️ Big risk today
U.S. Employment Situation — 19:30 ICT
U.S. labor data may cause strong volatility, so waiting for confirmation is even more important.
🎯 Current status: WATCH
No Confirmed signal yet.
There’s no reason to place a hypothetical Entry / SL / TP.
Priority: wait for price to come to the zone + wait for H1 confirmation—no FOMO within the range.
#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #Crypto #PriceAction #Trading #BitcoinAnalysis

🚨 BTC/USD NEXT 24H: SELLERS ARE SLIGHTLY IN CONTROL, BUT 79.5K IS THE “LINE IN THE SAND”!
BTC is currently around 79.8K USD, after a sharp rejection at the 81.48K area and a move back below the 80K level.
📊 24H Bias: Mixed – slightly Bearish
Up: 30%
Down: 40%
Sideways: 30%
The most notable point: the move up to 81.48K could not hold, then the H1 structure weakened and price returned to the 79.8K area. However, sellers do not yet have full control because the 79.55K–79.70K support zone has not been broken by a closing H1 candle.
⚙️ Deribit derivatives: funding has cooled to near zero/slightly negative, showing that long crowding has decreased significantly. This is a good signal for reducing “overheated” risk, but it is not enough to confirm a bullish reversal.
💰 US spot BTC ETF: the 08/27 session recorded +242.3 million USD net flow, still a positive support for institutional capital flows.
🌍 Macro: the USD and US yields remain elevated, which could pressure BTC if they continue rising. The biggest catalyst is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at 21:00 today.
🧱 Price levels to watch
🔴 Resistance: 80.0K–80.1K
🔴 Strong resistance: 80.45K–80.60K
🔴 Far target: 81.45K–81.50K
🟢 Near support: 79.55K–79.70K
🟢 Important support: 78.90K–79.00K
🎬 Main scenario
📉 H1 closes below 79.55K + failed retest → BTC may continue testing 78.9K.
📈 If BTC reclaims and holds above 80.6K → the bearish bias is invalidated, and the 81.5K area will return to the radar.
⚠️ Before the Fed speech, the 79.6K–80.0K area is likely to see fakeouts and liquidity sweeps. Do not chase the first candle after the news.
📌 In short: the edge is still slightly with sellers, but the real battle becomes clear only when BTC breaks 79.55K or reclaims 80.6K. These two levels could decide the next 24 hours.

📊 MACRO FLOW RADAR 24H — 28/08/2026
🏆 Market Flow Winner: EQUITIES, but not dominant yet
🌤 Risk Regime: Mixed leaning Risk-on
⚡ Flow Score: +40, mildly Risk-on leaning
🔎 Key points:
📈 Equities lead the flow
• S&P 500 +0.72%
• Nasdaq +1.57%
• Nvidia +8.7%
Cash flow is concentrating heavily in Tech/AI. However, breadth is still narrow, so this is more equity-specific flow than broad macro risk-on.
₿ Crypto supported
BTC around $81K and +2.71%/24h per Coinbase stats. The bullish signal is clear, but not enough to call Crypto the winner of the overall capital flow.
💵 USD/Rates near neutral
DXY is basically flat, while US 2Y and 10Y are only edging up slightly. There is no clear new capital flow signal into USD/Rates yet.
🥇 Gold up slightly
Gold is supported but not strong enough to become the leading flow.
🧩 Main catalyst:
July PCE came in slightly hotter than expected and initially triggered a hawkish reaction, but afterward Nvidia/AI regained their role as market leaders.
🔮 Probability of flow regime over the next 24h:
📈 Equities lead: 35%
💵 USD/Rates lead: 25%
⚖️ Mixed: 20%
₿ Crypto lead: 10%
🥇 Gold lead: 10%
➡️ Total: 100%
➡️ No dominant scenario.
⚠️ Reversal warning:
If a hawkish Fed pushes DXY up clearly and 2Y/10Y both jump ≥5 bps, the winner could quickly shift from Equities to USD/Rates.
📌 Not a buy/sell recommendation.

📊 MACRO FLOW RADAR 24H — 27/08/2026
Capital flows currently have no clear winner; mixed, leaning slightly toward Crypto. ₿ BTC is the standout asset, but USD/Rates have not cooled enough to confirm a broad risk-on move.
🔎 Flow Summary:
• Inflow: unclear
• Outflow: unclear
• Slight tilt: Crypto ₿
• Market Flow Winner: Mixed, leaning slightly toward Crypto
• Risk Regime: Mixed, leaning Risk-on
• Flow Score: +25
📌 Key evidence:
₿ Crypto: BTC-USD on Coinbase is around 79.976 USD, while the 24h open in stats is 78.696 USD → BTC is up about +1.65%/24h. The ticker and stats match closely, so the Crypto signal is relatively clean right now.
📈 Equities: supported, but the tone is more tech/AI-specific flow 🤖, not enough to call it a broad macro risk-on move.
💵 USD/Rates: still mixed. DXY remains firm while US 10Y is slightly lower. Real yield/FRED is only daily context data, so it is not used for strong intraday scoring.
🥇 Gold: slightly higher and supported, but DXY has not clearly weakened, so it is not yet enough to become the main inflow.
📰 Post-event: July PCE was a bit hotter than expected on headline, but the post-news reaction did not create a unanimous USD/Rates shock. Therefore, USD/Rates have not reclaimed the winner position.
🔮 Probability of capital flow regime in the next 24h:
• Mixed / no clear winner: 35%
• Crypto leads: 25%
• Equities lead: 20%
• USD/Rates: 12%
• Gold: 8%
⚖️ No dominant scenario.
⚠️ Reversal warning:
If DXY together with 2Y/10Y turns up clearly, USD/Rates could quickly regain the edge. Conversely, if BTC loses momentum and equities turn red with VIX rising, the current slight Risk-on bias will be invalidated.
🚫 Not a buy/sell recommendation.

🟡 XAUUSD over the past 24h:
1. 📍 Current price & data
Spot: 4,598.365 — GoldAPI, 15:37 ICT, 27/08/2026.
Bid/Ask: 4,597.85 / 4,598.55; spread 0.70.
Day range: 4,593.63 → 4,643.135.
H1 24h High/Low: 4,642.31 / 4,582.25.
23 verified closed H1 candles; the 15:00 candle is still running.
H1 shows price has dropped sharply from the 4,640+ area to around 4,598.
2. 🧭 24h bias & price probability
Bias: Mixed, leaning Bearish.
Reference price probabilities: Up 35% | Down 45% | Sideways 20%.
Confidence: Medium.
H1 technicals are weak, but falling rates support gold: DGS10 4.64% from 4.70%; DFII10 2.32% from 2.38%
Current DXY does not yet have enough verified data.
3. 🧱 Key levels
Resistance: 4,606–4,613; stronger at 4,623–4,633.
Support: 4,590–4,598; next at 4,582–4,585.
Decision zone: 4,598–4,606.
Do not prioritize chasing Sell near 4,582–4,590 unless there is a confirmed breakdown candle close.
4. 🎬 Main scenario
Priority: Conditional Sell / wait for confirmation.
Downside confirmation: H1 closes below 4,590, ideally if a retest of 4,590–4,598 fails.
Invalidation: H1 reclaims and holds above 4,613; a move above 4,623 clearly weakens the bearish bias.
Observed target: 4,582–4,585.
If price recovers 4,606–4,613, do not keep a hard Sell bias.
5. ⚠️ Risks, event calendar & Event Scenario Bias
Main risk: a fake breakdown around 4,590–4,582 because nominal/real yields are declining.
🗓️ Event calendar in Vietnam time:
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims:
Status: Pre-event.
Vietnam time: 19:30 ICT, 27/08/2026.
Event Scenario Bias:
🟢 Weak claims, USD/yield down → supports XAU.
🔴 Strong claims, USD/yield up + H1 loses 4,590 → pressure on XAU.
🟡 Inline/mixed → wait for M15/H1 confirmation.
How to handle: avoid chasing price close to the news time; prioritize waiting for candle closes.
📌 Quick conclusion: Sellers have the edge on H1, but not enough to chase Sell yet. 4,590 is the downside confirmation; 4,613 is the near invalidation.