一哥交易经

Pre-market U.S. stocks are still relatively strong. During the day, gold continues the bullish run from the past few days. At 8:30 PM, the Non-Farm Payrolls (big NFP) data will be released.
After the interest-rate decision meeting, the U.S. dollar index began to weaken. Gold finally completes the upside breakout, and oil prices fall in line with the impact of geopolitical news.
So can the bullish leg driven by precious metals also lift the “big pie” along with it?
$BTC
Recently, the “big pie” has had relatively small intraday volatility. On the 4H timeframe, it’s maintaining a gradual stair-step uptrend, which raises some suspicion of a potential baiting move. For those chasing a breakout, please be quick and diligent with taking profit—especially since, with the news environment as it is right now.
In the evening, watch for rebound pressure around the 655 area above. A pull-up on reduced volume on a small timeframe is usually not a good sign.

The US dollar index has been continuously weakening since last week. Gold has not followed through with an upward move. Oil has started to gradually pull back after “TACO” by Trump.
On the surface, the situation seems more positive than negative—so why does Bitcoin do a catch-up rally while the US stocks keep climbing rapidly?
After the US stock market opened on Monday, it surged with a large gap up and kept rising. Ahead of the close, it is now nearing the previous high around 7630—indeed quite strong.
$BTC
After revisiting the 624 area again, it started to rebound. However, the performance in crypto isn’t as strong as the US stock market—the rebound strength is average. Then, pull back again to the 638 area to test the resistance.
Structurally, the market still maintains a retest after the channel breaks down, so the risk-reward ratio for chasing on a smaller timeframe is quite small. The 646 resistance level above is relatively close. After observing the price’s weak performance in this area and then breaking out, the risk-reward ratio for setting up a short position by lying in wait behind the resistance is a bit higher.

Trading in June and July has been quite challenging. Next, we move into a new month.
Let me first share some not-so-pleasant historical data with everyone—"to carve a boat and seek a sword." In the past few years, August each year has been the month when both US stocks and crypto enter an adjustment cycle; most of the time it has been dominated by declines.
This week’s important data is Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. There will be two employment data releases before Friday.
With the market backdrop of maintaining balance sheet reduction and not cutting rates or raising rates, we need to pay more attention to how US stocks move in tandem with other markets.
The S&P 500 in the US stock market has been consolidating near the highs for about 75 days. For this kind of large-scale oscillation that gradually tightens into a converging structure—what matters most is not guessing whether it will keep rising,