樱花舞伴

This week’s main storyline has changed. It’s no longer about guessing whether there will be a rate hike—it’s about guessing whether they will hike again after the hike.
The CME FedWatch has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike on September 16 to around 86.5%–87%. If the federal funds target range is raised, it would move from the current 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. Before the inflation data comes out, this probability is still roughly around 70%. Goldman Sachs has also changed its tune: it is no longer betting on a hold in September, but instead expects a 25-basis-point hike. JPMorgan has gone a step further, putting a second hike in December into its forecast as well.
Here, Bitcoin after rallying and breaking through about $82,000 in early September, pulled back. Today it has been hovering around roughly $77,000, sometimes dipping to about $76.7k. Over the week, it’s down about 5%. It is falling, but it hasn’t crashed another leg the way it did after 87%—suggesting that in this September move, many positions had already priced it in in advance.

Next week at 2:15 PM Eastern on September 15, the U.S. Senate will hold a procedural vote on the (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) (CLARITY Act, H.R. 3633). Plainly put: it’s not direct legislation—first it’s about deciding whether to open debate.
The threshold is 60 votes. The Republicans have about 53 seats, so they still need to pull at least 7 members of the Democratic Party or independents. The sticking points mainly come in three areas: an official’s conflict-of-interest provision regarding crypto asset holdings; whether stablecoins can earn yield (banks strongly oppose this); and the boundaries of liability for DeFi developers.
If it can’t pass, it will be basically very difficult to get scheduled again within 2026; the market structure still depends on the SEC and the CFTC each making their own rules. Even if it does pass, there’s still debate, a second round of debate to formally end it, House alignment, and it’s still a long way from becoming law. My estimate is that the probability of the bill being signed into law this year is currently around 20%.

On September 11, this set of ETF flows says more than the price action.
Based on publicly tracked data: on that day, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of about $13.29 million. On the same day, the Ethereum spot ETF saw net inflows of about $216 million. One side is reducing while the other is adding—more like “rotation within crypto,” not an overall pullout of capital.
Take another look at the price: BTC is still hovering around the $770,000 area; ETH is up more than about 2%, trading above roughly $2,510–$2,520. Short-term sentiment has also warmed up a bit.
A few plain-language key points:
1) The cumulative outflows from BTC ETFs in the past few days are already quite significant. On the 11th, the outflows narrowed—more like “bleeding slows down,” not an immediate reversal.

Bitcoin is currently stuck around $77,000. On both sides there are “thick walls.”
On-chain cost distribution charts show: about 1 million BTC are clustered in the $62,000–$65,000 range below, and about 1 million BTC are also clustered in the $84,000–$87,000 range above. The current price is squeezed in between—either breaking down or pushing up, and market views are sharply split.
At the same time, everyone is still watching next week’s FOMC. In public discussion, the probability of a September rate hike has been mentioned as being above 80%; U.S. stocks and risk assets will also price around this statement. On top of that, in recent days there have still been reports of net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, so liquidity conditions are not exactly comfortable.