A. Market View

1. Macro liquidity

Monetary liquidity is tightening. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in July as scheduled. Although it did not indicate whether there will be subsequent interest rate hikes, it is generally dovish. This round of interest rate hikes has so far been 11 times, with a total increase of 525 basis points. The interest rate has also risen from 0.25% to 5.5%, basically reaching the highest interest rate level since this century. When the Federal Reserve approached the end of the interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar index fell below 100 points. BTC has performed poorly relative to technology stocks in recent weeks.

2. Market conditions

The top 100 companies with the highest market capitalization:

The market is weak this week. The dominance of altcoins has recovered. The market liquidity is insufficient, and opportunities are mostly in small and new coins on the chain. At the end of the last bear market, the capital market was hyped, and this round has changed to hyping local dogs. Most of the projects with better gains in this round have real income and use the income for dividends and repurchases. The market hot spots are trading robots and RWA.

  1. WLD: The goal is to issue coins to everyone in the world, establish the first global-level real human identity narrative public chain, and develop payment and financial scenarios. The risk is that the biological data of iris recognition needs to cooperate with local officials. The token economics adopts a low circulation and high market value model. The market value enters the top 10, and the subsequent growth space is relatively limited.

  2. MKR: It is the leader in real asset on-chain, with 70% of its revenue coming from the RWA track. The recent data of its new business lending business has also hit a record high. The reduction of holdings by the major shareholder A16Z is about to end, and the factors that have long suppressed the price of the currency have been eliminated.

  3. UNIBOT: It is the leader in the trading robot track and benefits from the high popularity of the on-chain local dog market. UNIBOT has some innovations, allowing users to place orders directly on Telegram at a faster speed than Uniswap, with real income and dividends. However, the token model adopts a transaction tax model similar to meme coins, which has been criticized.

3. BTC market

1) On-chain data

The number of BTC involved in transactions is decreasing. Investors who have held BTC for more than half a year and more than a year have reached new highs, with 75% of them holding BTC for more than half a year and 69% holding BTC for more than a year.

The market value of stablecoins on the exchange has slightly decreased. The market value of the four main stablecoins has decreased by about US$400 million. Before there is no new news about spot ETFs, BTC is more likely to remain volatile.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV falls below the key level of 1, and the holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 0.69, entering the recovery stage.

2) Futures market

Futures funding rate: This week's rate is neutral. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the rate is -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, which is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures positions: This week's total positions decreased slightly from the previous month, with major players withdrawing.

Futures long-short ratio: 1.3. Market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator. Below 0.7, it is more panic, and above 2.0, it is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and its reference value is weakened.

3) Spot market

The market was weak and volatile this week, but the Fed's interest rate hike has landed, and it is expected that the short-term negatives will be exhausted. BTC is still above the weekly line, which is relatively bullish, but the upside is relatively limited. The altcoin index has rebounded a lot recently, and there may be a wave of catch-up opportunities for altcoins that have changed.

B. Market Data

1. Total locked-up amount of public chains

2. TVL Proportion of Each Public Chain

TVL dropped by 1.1B this week, and the proportion of ETH chain dropped slightly by 0.4% this week. Optimism continued the good upward trend of last week, with a growth of 4.29%, and a growth of 14.59% this month. However, in terms of active users, although the number of users of Op chain increased by 50% last week, it basically fell back to the previous level this week, with 108,011 active users. Avalanche fell significantly, with a drop of 3.17%, and a drop of 7.9% this month.

3. Locked Amount of Each Chain Protocol

1) ETH locked amount

2) BSC locked amount

3) Polygon locked-up amount

4) Arbitrum locked-up amount

5) Optimism locked amount

IV. ETH Gas fee history

The current on-chain transfer fee is about $7.27, and the transaction fee of Opensea is about $2.82. Compared with the Gas situation last week, the Gas level this week is basically the same as last week, but the transaction fees of Uniswap and Opensea have dropped significantly, which may indicate a significant decline in trading activity.

5. Changes in NFT market data

1) NFT-500 Index:

2) NFT market situation:

3) NFT trading market share:

4) NFT Buyer Analysis:

5) Active projects:

The total market value of the NFT market is still declining this week. From the perspective of transaction volume, the transaction volume of the top blue-chip projects has dropped by about 10% compared with last week. The volatility curve of Active Project shows that the market lacks activity. From the active wallet addresses of new and old NFT buyers, the situation of old users paying for NFTs is continuously weakening, and the entry of new users is also continuously declining.

VI. Latest project financing situation

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