The market was calm over the weekend, with a standard rebound from a low level. This trend was also within expectations. Next week, there will be a meeting of the Federal Reserve's Financial Committee on cryptocurrencies. The market should tremble at this point in time, and this tremor may form a high point for the year. Those who chase highs will have to wait for at least half a year.

Big Pie: From the four-hour perspective, after two weeks of volatility, this triangle has been formed, and an upward wave is natural; but this wave carries risks. As mentioned before, it may appear in the form of a blitzkrieg. If nothing unexpected happens, the market will still be sprinting with the voice of "bull back, come back quickly" in the next week. It is recommended to choose carefully. The point of view is very clear. Those who tremble again are those who get off the car and watch the show. Never increase your position to chase high prices. Only do subtraction, not addition. The future profits are left to those who get hot-headed.

Some of the stories I’m following recently

1.staderlabs_eth $SD will launch ETHx on the 10th. ETHx meets the staking market's demand for low thresholds and decentralization. Currently, $SD has risen and fallen. We need to pay attention to the performance of ETHx after it goes online. More adoption means more demand for $SD.

2. ShibariumNet may be announced at the Blockchain Futurist Conference in Toronto in August this year. Shib is one of the main sponsors of this conference.

3. Cancun Upgrade

The Ethereum Foundation DevOps team plans to launch Devnet#7as early as June 30 or July 3. Devnet#7is a dedicated short-term test network for EIP-4844.

However, the specific time for the Cancun upgrade has not yet been officially announced.

4. MakerDAO buyback, there will be another vote later, and the short-term hype cycle is about to end. I have no doubt that $MKR will continue to rise, but due to the extinguishing of the RWA narrative hype, it is now a bit weak.

5. yearnfi is about to launch the previously announced $yETH. The product itself has little to do with $YFI, but if $yETH is popular enough in the market, then $YFI will definitely have a chance to rise.

6. The mainnet of BuildOnBase is coming soon. First, it is a push for the landing of the OP Stack narrative. After the mainnet, part of the basic income of Base will go into the OP treasury. Second, a number of excellent protocols will emerge on BaseChain, and we can choose to invest by tracking the data.

7. Cancun is expected to launch v4 after upgrading

Currently, Uniswap accounts for 43.9% of all DeFi protocol on-chain transactions, and its transaction volume in the past 7 days is 6.7 times that of the second place. As the leader, it is natural that the v4 version that is about to be launched has attracted a lot of attention from the market.

In May 2021, Uniswap v3 was launched, introducing the concept of centralized liquidity, which means that users can choose to provide liquidity within a specific price range, which allows liquidity to be more efficiently allocated and potentially improves capital efficiency. After more than a year, Uniswap released the draft code for v4 in mid-June this year.

When will the launch be? Erin Koen, head of governance at the Uniswap Foundation, shared with foreign media THEBLOCK that this depends on when the Cancun upgrade is completed: The launch of v4 is expected to take place later this year, and this time depends on the successful implementation of Ethereum's upcoming Cancun upgrade (expected to be completed at the end of September). In addition, a comprehensive audit process needs to be completed, which may take about four months after Cancun.

AVAX has formed a small breakthrough in the short term, which means there will be a small movement space later. Basically, there will not be too much energy fluctuation. Relatively speaking, there will be no suitable currency participating in the short-term volatile market.

The short-term oscillation range of mask has been formed. This position is a range of support and resistance between 3 and 4. If there is no other trend instigation, these two baffles will be used as the oscillation range.

Ant forms a continuous upward trend, which takes a long time. It is impossible to form a top at this stage. It has exceeded the fourth time. Above 4, to put it simply, even bankruptcy must establish a small bottom.

How to "Think Effectively" When Trading Cryptocurrencies

The first is based on "objective and effective information". For example, we "feel" that a recession is coming. After all, we are still in the interest rate hike cycle, and after all, the economy around us is so bad, so this year should be a sharp drop, a waterfall.

But what is "objective and effective information"? The U.S. stock market has soared for three or four months. Based on objective information, we must deny the imagined "plunge" logic, at least not now.

The second is to have "information stratification" to distinguish which information is closer to the cryptocurrency circle.

Like mosquito coils, the currency circle is at the center, and the peripheral information circles around, some are close and some are far away. The closest to the center must be the "Bitcoin Spot ETF", while inflation and bank crashes are in the farther circles.

When we think about the cryptocurrency circle, the weight of the "ETF narrative" in the inner circle should be higher because it can directly affect the market.

Thinking is the complete process of building logic based on various information points and forming the final decision

The most important step in effective thinking is to filter out information points and classify the information. Let me share how I "effectively think" about the trend of Bitcoin in the next few months:

Macroeconomic background: Ignore inflation/unemployment/bank crashes and only look at objective results. US stocks have been rising.

Cryptocurrency Narrative: A circle of leading institutions are in spot ETFs. Regardless of the outcome, this is a very important narrative

Market/retail investor sentiment: From 15k to 31k, it is also an upward trend technically, but retail investors have not entered into the fomo sentiment and are looking forward to a crash.

Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.