On Monday (June 26) in the Asian market, Bitcoin maintained $30,000 without breaking, and whale investors continued to maintain their confidence in long-term holding. With the negative impact of US regulation exhausted, more Wall Street institutions entered the market to deploy Bitcoin spot ETFs, and it was reported that the bankrupt exchange FTX is expected to restart. Analysts predict that although key resistance has been broken, long-term investors can still look for opportunities to buy on dips in the third quarter of this year.
The reapplication of Bitcoin spot ETFs by multiple Wall Street institutions shows that despite the tightening of the US regulatory environment, financial giants are still willing to continue to deploy Bitcoin and create higher liquidity for the crypto market.
According to foreign media reports, court documents from the Delaware Bankruptcy Court in the United States show that the crypto exchange FTX is allowed to sell the company's assets. This means that FTX is expected to restart, and the list of companies seeking restructuring includes BlackRock, Nasdaq and other 8 companies, who were contacted to sign a confidentiality agreement.
Bitcoin price action is focused on yearly highs, and risk aversion has kept prices strong over the weekend as attention is focused on geopolitical events in and around Russia. In a recent analysis, popular trader Rekt Capital called a weekly close above the key $30,000 mark a “best-case scenario” for Bitcoin.
Rekt pointed out in the post that in mid-April, Bitcoin failed to break through the $30,000 resistance level, and now the crypto market sees that the price of the currency has turned $30,000 into a support level. If Bitcoin successfully consolidates around $31,000, trader Crypto Tony still has hope for the next rise to $32,000.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, was slightly less confident, questioning the ability of bulls to maintain upward momentum. “Bitcoin made a nice high and swept the yearly high,” he told Twitter users.
“I’m not sure if we’ll continue running from here, but during an uptrend you’re more likely to see prices continue running than a deep correction. If a correction occurs, I’d buy at $28,500.” Apparently, he reiterated a popular downside target among market players eager to “buy the dip” below $30,000.
Bitcoin records continue to break
Despite cooling volatility against the dollar, Bitcoin did hit new records in three countries this week. In Argentina, Venezuela, and Lebanon, Bitcoin hit all-time highs against local currencies. For these countries, the trend continues in 2023 as inflation and macroeconomic policy choices rapidly erode purchasing power.
In Turkey, the lira/dollar exchange rate fell to a new low, and Bitcoin/lira approached its peak area since December 2021.
Buy the dip or sit on the sidelines?
“As June comes to an end, we need to revisit the big picture to remind us where we are in the long run,” said Akash Girimath, an analyst at FXStreet. “So in this newsletter, I will walk you through what to expect from Bitcoin over the next two quarters and better prepare you for it.”
He noted that historical returns are key to determining what happens next. Like clockwork, Bitcoin prices are up 68.55% in the first quarter so far and 6.55% in the second quarter.
Once again, from a historical perspective, the third quarter has been favorable for shorts, with an average return of just 4.21%. To make matters worse, July, August, and September were the months with the lowest average returns for Bitcoin, respectively, as shown in the chart below.
Finally, the average return rate in the fourth quarter was 93.38%, with the highest average return rate in November.
Akash stressed that the point is therefore simple, do nothing or accumulate Bitcoin on dips in the next three months. After the terrible third quarter, the Bitcoin price may embark on a journey to avoid the first quarter returns and may try to retest the all-time high of $69,000.