Let's talk about the market in the next two months.
Last year, it was expected that there would be a market a few months before the production cut. Now this process has been completed. In the future, we need to pay attention to two things: interest rate cuts and US stock market dynamics.
After the interest rate cut, will the American money flow into the US stock market?
Some people thought it would in the past, but I think the possibility is small. First, as long as the interest rate is cut, the depreciation of the US dollar is almost a foregone conclusion. Secondly, the high level of the US stock market itself has certain risks. The money that the Americans have left in the bank at a 5-point interest rate will not take the risk to go to the US stock market again. So either go to gold, go to Japan, or go back to other countries.
If the US stock market falls, it will be short-term negative for the big cake, but it is only short-term. There is still an essential difference between stocks and blockchain. The Americans are free. They will try their best to keep their money in the pool that the Americans can control. Gold is a removal, but it is too monotonous and the US stock market is high. Dong Ge believes that after the ETF is passed, once the interest rate is cut, more people will come in. Some people will say, how can the big cake come in when it is so high? In addition to the big cake, there are many other small plates to choose from. Even if this round of SOL was promoted by the Americans, it has grown from a small pool to a large pool. ONDO also has the shadow of BlackRock behind it, and there are actually many more.
The opportunity lies in the circle of the Americans. The previous SOL chain dog, the recent runes, and the new inscriptions were all hyped by them first. The future bull market needs to pay more attention to this circle.
In addition, it is said that the price of big cake is too high. In fact, big cake is always high for retail investors, but it is never high for dog dealers (a small group). The group of big guys who control 70% of the global big cake should not be too difficult to hype the small part of the outside big cake to 200,000. It's just that this process should be a bit tortuous.
Give a predicted timeline: It is expected that the interest rate cut will be in September at the latest. Two or three months before the interest rate cut, we will see a relatively low position, which will last for a period of time, giving ETFs time to enter the market again. This time may be the last opportunity to enter the future bull market. I think the big bull will not start more than the end of June. Therefore, when bottom fishing, you should control your position and rhythm. Bottom fishing is not completed in one go, but should be completed over a period of time. No one can absolutely predict the lowest point of this pullback in the short term.
