Tracking Benjamin Cowen's bearish BTC roadmap. Where it stands (Oct 29):
✅ Weekly close below $83K again.
Closed at $80,048, third red week in a row.
✅ "Fakeout confirmed" (his call after the 2nd close).
✅ Fed didn't hike. Held at 3.75–4.00%, but 10–2: two members wanted a hike.
⏳ Hot PCE. Out at 8:30 ET. Core is expected at +0.3% m/m, so "hot" means above that.
⏳ Oil to ~$120. Brent is already ~$114.
⏳ 10Y back to 5.3%. It's ~5.0% now.
⏳ Stocks drop. S&P 500 is at 7,744 after 3 straight gains.
⏳ Red Q4. Midterm Q4s were red in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Three samples, not a law.
⏳ Long end falls before year end.
The roadmap is void if BTC reclaims and holds $83K. A scenario, not a forecast. NFA. $BTC $ETH
✅ Weekly close below $83K again.
Closed at $80,048, third red week in a row.
✅ "Fakeout confirmed" (his call after the 2nd close).
✅ Fed didn't hike. Held at 3.75–4.00%, but 10–2: two members wanted a hike.
⏳ Hot PCE. Out at 8:30 ET. Core is expected at +0.3% m/m, so "hot" means above that.
⏳ Oil to ~$120. Brent is already ~$114.
⏳ 10Y back to 5.3%. It's ~5.0% now.
⏳ Stocks drop. S&P 500 is at 7,744 after 3 straight gains.
⏳ Red Q4. Midterm Q4s were red in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Three samples, not a law.
⏳ Long end falls before year end.
The roadmap is void if BTC reclaims and holds $83K. A scenario, not a forecast. NFA. $BTC $ETH
