10:30 PM, Kalshi is applying with the CFTC to let users borrow money to place bets. As I watch this and adjust $FLOCK , the more I look, the more uncomfortable it feels.
It’s up 27.18% today, with a current price of 0.09213. I checked the leverage: with 7.4 million U held open, compared to 5.25 million U 24 hours ago—up 40%. But the成交 amount is 46.94 million U, while open positions are only about one-sixth of the volume. In the last 8 rounds, 7 have had the 0.005% floor on the fee.
In plain terms: this move is pushed upward by almost nobody borrowing money.
The account’s gone hot—bulls’ share over the last 11 hours rose from 48.7% to 56.3%, and in the last hour the active buy/sell ratio is 1.1582. People are chasing, but the money isn’t following.
Until open positions stand above 12 million U, I’m valuing it based on spot market conditions, not a squeeze scenario; if it breaks below 0.0724, I’ll admit I’m wrong.
With a rally like this—near-zero leverage—do you think the endgame is A grinding it up slowly, or B wiping it out in one flush?
#市场快讯 #实时数据 #资金动向
It’s up 27.18% today, with a current price of 0.09213. I checked the leverage: with 7.4 million U held open, compared to 5.25 million U 24 hours ago—up 40%. But the成交 amount is 46.94 million U, while open positions are only about one-sixth of the volume. In the last 8 rounds, 7 have had the 0.005% floor on the fee.
In plain terms: this move is pushed upward by almost nobody borrowing money.
The account’s gone hot—bulls’ share over the last 11 hours rose from 48.7% to 56.3%, and in the last hour the active buy/sell ratio is 1.1582. People are chasing, but the money isn’t following.
Until open positions stand above 12 million U, I’m valuing it based on spot market conditions, not a squeeze scenario; if it breaks below 0.0724, I’ll admit I’m wrong.
With a rally like this—near-zero leverage—do you think the endgame is A grinding it up slowly, or B wiping it out in one flush?
#市场快讯 #实时数据 #资金动向
