$RAM fell 11.68, down 2.99% over 24 hours, but the corresponding perpetual contract funding rate remains positive at 0.00062. Price weakness alongside a positive funding rate means long positions are paying financing costs against the trend.
Current open interest is 37,668, with trading volume of about 1.51 million. Liquidity is not particularly strong. This structure is a classic case of longs trapped: as the price declines, longs not only absorb unrealized losses, but also pay the short side for holding the positions. If the funding rate continues to stay positive, longs’ time costs will keep accumulating until they either reduce exposure or get liquidated.
The counterpoint is that if sentiment in the US stock market suddenly turns bullish and lifts these TradFi derivatives, longs could quickly swing back into profit and the funding pressure would dissipate instantly. The trigger for this thesis to fail is straightforward: the price recovers 11.68 for two consecutive days and the funding rate turns negative.
I’m waiting for a clearer signal. This drifting lower-with-interest-paid setup is not suitable for a left-side entry. If the price stabilizes above 11.68 and we observe the funding rate turning negative, that would be an initial signal that shorts concede and longs regain control. At that point, you could consider a small initial long position.
Aggressive: When the price holds above 11.68 and the funding rate turns negative, go long with a small position; set a stop-loss below the prior low.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #RAM
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?
Current open interest is 37,668, with trading volume of about 1.51 million. Liquidity is not particularly strong. This structure is a classic case of longs trapped: as the price declines, longs not only absorb unrealized losses, but also pay the short side for holding the positions. If the funding rate continues to stay positive, longs’ time costs will keep accumulating until they either reduce exposure or get liquidated.
The counterpoint is that if sentiment in the US stock market suddenly turns bullish and lifts these TradFi derivatives, longs could quickly swing back into profit and the funding pressure would dissipate instantly. The trigger for this thesis to fail is straightforward: the price recovers 11.68 for two consecutive days and the funding rate turns negative.
I’m waiting for a clearer signal. This drifting lower-with-interest-paid setup is not suitable for a left-side entry. If the price stabilizes above 11.68 and we observe the funding rate turning negative, that would be an initial signal that shorts concede and longs regain control. At that point, you could consider a small initial long position.
Aggressive: When the price holds above 11.68 and the funding rate turns negative, go long with a small position; set a stop-loss below the prior low.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #RAM
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?