September 10, 2026.
In past bear-market cycles, very few coins showed independent market moves. In general, the whole market mostly moved down with Bitcoin like silt.
In this bear market, many coins are resistant to declines and some have been rising independently.
This is an abnormal phenomenon never seen in past bear markets.
HYPE and ZEC are both rising against the trend. In the bear market, they keep hitting new highs. Meanwhile, OKB, TRX, and XMR are also unusually resistant to drops even in the bear market.
Maybe the four-year cycle still has some reference value for Bitcoin.
By the end of the year, you may still be able to position into relatively cheap BTC.
But for undervalued coins, the impact is becoming weaker and weaker—sometimes even nonexistent. The overall direction is still up.
I just place too much importance on the 4-year cycle.
Hesitating without decision.
You missed the early opportunity to position in OKB. Perhaps the final cost will end up 50%~100% percentile higher than the historical major bottom at $60.
Although I’m optimistic about OKB in the long run—ranking it to make it into the top 20.
But I couldn’t get costs down to 70~80 dollars; in the end, it’s still not satisfying.
But investments are, after all, never perfect.
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(09/10, 26) Brother Cai’s daily enlightenment:
A coin that’s strong this year may not be strong next year.
Everything is only temporary. If you bet that the coins strong this year will stay strong next year, then next year might bring you a huge disappointment.
There is no coin that only goes up and never goes down.
Value coins outperform the overall market, and the market cap reaches a peak. Then the ranking will correct downward, starting a long period of underperforming the overall market.
And other undervalued coins have started to outperform the overall market.
Most disasters come from one-way upward movement. When a currency rises in one direction for a long time, everyone becomes optimistic, and eventually it leads to a crash.
The foundation is not solid; when the quake comes, the mountains sway.