It fell below 40,000, and the trend fluctuated downward! !

Grayscale is not a single main force. They are funds that have saved the money of many people/institutions. After the ETF is approved, gbtc redemption is opened and outflows can be made.

⚠️Grayscale’s management fee is 1.5%, while other ETF management fees range from 0-0.25%. There is a high probability that more than 10,000 BTC will flow out every day, and these funds will be reallocated to other ETFs.

⚠️Grayscale transfer to Coinbase Prime is Coinbase's major customer department. It mainly does OTC trading and asset management, and does not mean directly investing in the secondary market. BlackRock's coins are actually hosted in Coinbase Prime, so a lot of Grayscale's outflows will be absorbed by several other ETFs because their management fees are cheaper. Coinbase can transfer funds directly internally.

⚠️How to understand this 49,000-39,000 drop? At first, it was a sell-off due to good news, and then there was a sell-off of FUD transferred from Grayscale. The continuous decline in the past two days is most likely due to the selling pressure caused by grayscale FTX funds being unlocked and then liquidated, totaling more than 10,000 BTC. This part of the selling pressure has just ended. Subsequent selling pressure will be smaller. Of course, around the news transferred from Grayscale, some traders’ short-term operations will also cause fluctuations in the market.

💡Technical: It fell to the structural trend line 39450 in the chart, faster than expected. It broke through the previous low of 40222 and captured liquidity. Here we see a high probability that the daily rebound or w-bottom rebound will draw 43,000 pressure, and then continue to fluctuate between 39-42 for a month. Subsequently, it followed the path of shock, decline, and then collapse.

The first goal in the mid-term is to retrace the entire ETF hype and pull it up.