According to CoinDesk, MacroMicro's bitcoin futures smart money index reached a record 13,711 last week, indicating a strong bias for bullish long positions ahead of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) impending decision on spot ETF applications. The Taiwan-based data tracking website's index measures the spread between large investors' long and short positions open on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, based on the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report.
CME's cash-settled standard bitcoin futures contracts, sized at 5 BTC, are widely considered a proxy for institutional activity, allowing market participants to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency through a regulated venue without owning it. The smart money index has risen sharply this quarter amid the spot ETF narrative and strengthening expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2024. The SEC has reportedly set January 10 as the deadline for approving or rejecting a bitcoin-based exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Observers expect record inflows into the asset class following the potential launch of one or more spot ETFs, which has driven bitcoin's price up nearly 60% this quarter. However, some experts, such as Singapore-based QCP Capital's market insights team, predict a classic 'sell the news' scenario in the second week of January, with possible retracement to $36,000 levels before the uptrend resumes. The bullish trend is expected to continue ahead of April's mining reward halving.
