Each cycle brings freedom to a group of people. The cryptocurrency world has compressed the 10-year cycle of the macro market into 4 years, so the proportion of free people in the cryptocurrency world is far greater than that in the Internet.

This may be: One day in the cryptocurrency world is like one year in the real world

1. How do we dance with the Kondratieff cycle in the cryptocurrency world?

Internet: Dependence on macro cycles, economic crisis every 10 years

Cryptocurrency Circle: Relying on the halving narrative, a bull-bear cycle of 4 years

As a person in the cryptocurrency circle: What should you do to gain freedom?

2. The Internet relies on macro cycles:

Macroeconomics is sometimes metaphysical, so there is a saying that goes: a financial crisis occurs approximately every 10 years.

What’s even more metaphysical is that major economic turmoil does occur every 10 years or so, whether it’s the subprime mortgage crisis or the epidemic.

So how do Web2 companies respond?

Ironically, most companies did not respond because 10 years is too long and no one can wait that long.

3. Let’s take a quick look at the past IPO waves:

1: Around 2000, the Internet bubble, the recovery period of the 1997 financial crisis

2: Around 2005, the global economy recovered and the early stage of the financial crisis

3: Around 10 years ago, the recovery after the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve adopted an easing policy

4: Around 20 years ago, the Fed had unlimited QE and abundant liquidity

Completely in line with the Merrill Lynch clock theory:

Go public during the recovery and overheating period, and grow slowly during the stagflation and recession📉

4. From the above data, we can roughly see that if you want to go public, you must meet the following conditions:

- When the market is full of funds, it is best if the Federal Reserve releases liquidity. When the bubble is the largest, the valuation is the highest

- The rapid economic recovery actually means economic warming. When the Federal Reserve slowly releases money, corporate valuations will also rise.

Don’t go public when the market is falling. There are no underwriters, the valuation is low, and the market value keeps falling.

5. The cryptocurrency industry relies on the halving narrative, with a bull-bear cycle switching every 4 years.

The actual circulation impact of BTC halving is already very small, but why is there still a halving market?

First: Because of narrative and expectations, the Bitcoin halving narrative has the greatest consensus basis.

Second: Whether it is an institution or a dealer, everyone has limited funds, so narrative leverage is needed, that is, to push forward according to everyone's consensus rather than creating concepts on their own. This will have the highest ROI.

6. The cryptocurrency circle relies on the halving narrative, with a bull-bear cycle of 4 years.

This raises a question: When do you think the SEC’s decision on whether to approve the ETF will come out?

SEC + Institutions: They all hope to do so before and after the BTC halving, because they do not make money from ETFs, but from the expectations of ETFs, and the expectations before and after the BTC halving are stronger and the cost-effectiveness is the highest.

7. What is the difference between Web2 and Web3?

The important thing is: many entrepreneurs cannot survive a 10-year cycle. How many years can a person be at his most energetic? This is the objective trend, and it is also the reason why many Web2 entrepreneurs start up at the wrong time, which means that their careers are doomed to be unsuccessful.

The four-year cycle in the cryptocurrency world is different. Four years may seem long, but according to the Merrill Lynch clock theory, two years out of four years can be utilized, so the opportunities in the cryptocurrency world are far greater than those in Web2.

So people in the cryptocurrency circle who want freedom need to pay attention: don’t waste any crisis!

8. Don't waste any crisis.

According to the Merrill Lynch clock theory:

1.2020 is a recession, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, and funds flow into the cryptocurrency circle

2.21 is a recovery period, the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, and funds are still flowing into the cryptocurrency circle

3.22 is an overheated period, the Fed began to raise interest rates, and funds began to flow out of the cryptocurrency circle

4.23 years is a period of stagflation, the Fed is still raising interest rates, and more funds are flowing out

9. Don’t waste any crisis. The cryptocurrency world is your best chance to turn things around.

Then, in 24 years, we will enter the next cycle [recession period], the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and funds will flow into the cryptocurrency circle.

There will be an opportunity to buy assets at the bottom in 24 years. Whether everyone is free depends on this wave 😎

Save your bullets, prepare your tools, learn the theory, and look at the villa 🏠