usmonetarypolicy

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, will launch an independent audit into the Federal Reserve building renovation project. Meanwhile, Attorney General Todd Blanche confirmed that the Department of Justice will step in to investigate alleged violations related to the matter. Earlier, the Inspector General’s report indicated that the project, during Powell’s tenure, suffered severe cost overruns and delays.

These political and legal moves are by no means a simple administrative audit, but a landmark step in the White House’s effort to reshape the Fed’s governance framework. By holding the previous management team accountable and applying pressure, administrative forces are further deepening the public-opinion foundation for questioning the independence of the traditional central bank. The contest between future monetary policy and administrative intent is therefore bound to intensify.

For macro financial markets, challenges to the Federal Reserve’s independence through political review will directly prompt investors to reassess long-term inflation expectations and the dollar’s credit risk premium. The U.S. Treasury yield curve could see sharp fluctuations due to institutional uncertainty, and the traditional safe-haven characteristics of risk assets will face severe tests.

For the crypto market, ongoing disruption in institutional credit will likely heighten liquidity wait-and-see sentiment in the short term. However, in the long run, concerns about the central bank’s politicization will strengthen the narrative logic behind decentralized hard currencies such as $BTC . Investors should remain highly vigilant regarding deleveraging risks caused by high volatility.

#Fed #KevinWarsh #USMonetaryPolicy

#FedOctoberRateHikeOddsFallTo17% Markets now price just a 17% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, reflecting reduced expectations for tighter monetary policy. The shift could influence Treasury yields, the dollar and risk assets including crypto. 🇺🇸📊

#FedRateHikeOdds
#FederalReserveWatch
#USMonetaryPolicy
#CryptoMacroOutlook

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📉 The Fed is gearing up for a rate cut: labor market under pressure, Trump intensifies the squeeze

Tonight, September 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold a meeting where a key rate cut of 25 basis points is expected — from 4.25–4.5% to 4.00–4.25%. This will mark the first move towards easing policy in the last nine months.

The reason? Weak employment data: in August, only 22,000 jobs were created, against a forecast of 75,000, while the unemployment rate hit 4.3% — a peak since October 2021. The pressure is compounded by President Donald Trump, who publicly criticizes the pace of cuts and threatens staffing changes at the Fed.

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut stands at 84.6%. Analysts expect this meeting to be the start of an easing cycle, despite inflation above 2.9% and risks associated with tariff policies.

Markets are reacting cautiously: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hitting new highs, while Bitcoin is consolidating around $115,000. Investors are waiting for confirmation — will this be a one-off move or the beginning of a long-term reevaluation of monetary policy.

#fedratecut #usmonetarypolicy #BTCMacro #write2earn