#PatternRecognition #LearningFromMistakes #STARTINGWEEKEND š Spot vs Futures
š Futures dominate: Futures/perpetuals daily volume ā $183B vs Spot ā $62B.
š BTC leads futures: $107B).
š¦ Spot smaller share: Spot market liquidity focused on BTC, ETH, and top coins.
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š Options Expiry (Sep 19, 2025)
š° Total expiry: ā $4.3B BTC + ETH options expiring.
āæ BTC options: ā $3.5B notional expiring.
Ī ETH options: ā $806.8M notional expiring.
š BTC Put/Call Ratio: ~1.23 (more puts ā bearish tilt).
š ETH Put/Call Ratio: ~0.99 (balanced ā neutral/bullish).
šÆ Max Pain Prices: BTC ā $114K | ETH ā $4.5K.
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š Upcoming Expiry (Sep 26, 2025)
š£ Huge expiry coming: ā $18B BTC options notional expiring.
ā” Impact: Could trigger major volatility if hedging/liquidations cluster.
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š Futures Open Interest (OI)
š¢ BTC OI near highs: ~$86B (depending on source).
š Data variance: Different aggregators (CoinGlass, Coinalyze, etc.) show different OI values.
ā ļø Always double-check OI data before decisions.
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š³ Margin & Leverage
š¹ Perps & futures dominate margin trading.
š No standard global margin data (differs across exchanges).
š Treat global margin stats as rough estimates only.
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āļø Market Mechanics
š¢ Expiries = volatility: Large option expiries often move prices short-term.
š Delta hedging/liquidations around expiry amplify swings.
š„ Thin orderbooks + high OI = fast liquidations.
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ā
Action Checklist
š Check exchange-level OI & strike distribution (Deribit, CME, Binance).
ā³ Track funding rates on perpetuals.
š§Ø Watch liquidation clusters (CoinGlass liquidation maps).
š§® Confirm Put/Call Ratios & Max Pain before expiry.
š”ļø Lower leverage near big expiries to cut risk.
$AA
$MITO $BTC