LIT’s historical high was just hit at 06:30 this morning—4.3727. The contract price is riding on top of it at 4.40, up 25% in 24 hours. The key isn’t the new high; it’s whose money is pushing it.
Open interest is up 11.35% in one day, with passive buy orders making up 60%, and the quadrant indicator bull_strong—everything on the surface looks bullish. But the funding rate is still stuck at 0.005%. An 8-sample average is still negative. With such aggressive adding, the funding rate can’t even pay for a positive premium—this batch of long positions is leveraged FOMO, not real money.
On the other side, the whales’ long positions were cut by 11% over 7 hours. The longs’ account share is 58.9%, lower than the whole market’s 62.5%. Spot flow shows a net outflow of 33.77 million in 3 hours. Only the very last 15 minutes barely turned it positive, with inflow of just 400,000. Price is moving, big players are withdrawing, and spot is leaking.
I am short. The new high was propped up with borrowed money. Once the fuel burns out, it will come back first to 4.29 (the 20-period moving average), then break below to 4.13 (the 50-period moving average). Stop-loss is above 4.43. Circulating supply is only 25%, and another 750 million tokens are still not unlocked. Supply also doesn’t stand on the bulls’ side.
Conditions to admit I’m wrong: the funding rate stays continuously positive, spot has net inflows for 3 consecutive hours, and the price holds above 4.43. If all three line up, it’s a real breakout and I’ll cancel the short. If not, I’ll short all the way to 4.13.
#lit $LIT