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4 Steps to Spot a New Bull Cycle in any Stock

I spent years thinking that investing success required deep financial knowledge. After working in investment banking and earning complex finance certifications and a masters degree I assure you it does not. Finance is important but it's just part of the solution.

The market runs on probabilities.

The goal is to find companies with much to gain and very little to lose.

Today we will cover how to identify when a company is ending its bearish cycle to begin a powerful new bullish cycle.

📉 Cycle Endings

To detect a cycle ending we must evaluate 4 KEY factors.

A clear prior downtrend exists.
The company has solid prospects or interesting turnaround options despite recent struggles. Avoid extreme cases or frauds.
The price establishes a bottom in a logical zone. Previous volume existed there creating a new support level.
A bullish pattern emerges.

Let us look at Moderna as an example

MRNA Real Time example:

1. Clear prior downtrend

The chart speaks for itself. Since mid 2021 Moderna has fallen steadily wiping out almost 95% of its stock market value.

2. The company has good prospects

Only 2 out of 11 analysts covering the stock are pessimistic.

Most rate it a hold with little upside expected right now. In 2026 we will see a cancer therapy in partnership with Merck which could act as a massive catalyst. Additional improvements include widely used vaccines aggressive cost reductions and a promising high margin rare disease pipeline. All these factors lay the groundwork for a potential turnaround this year.

3. The price establishes a significant bottom

The market has started to price in these developments. We saw a 150% rally over 3 months before the current correction. This was driven primarily by Phase 3 results for the Merck partnered cancer treatment. These results validate their mRNA technology for non infectious applications and could revolutionize cancer treatments. Their combined flu and COVID vaccine also received approval.

Beyond these fundamental successes heavy short interest betting on bankruptcy triggered a short squeeze forcing bears to cover their positions.

The $23 support level was crucial. Nobody managed to break the original 2019 IPO price.

4. A bullish pattern emerges

After dropping 95% and finding support at the IPO price the stock formed a Multiple Bottom demonstrating the strength of the floor and cleanly breaking the $35 resistance zone.

That breakout sent the price surging to the $55 level where historical resistance pushed it back down to $35.

This created a great entry opportunity in the pullback. By placing a tight Stop Loss just inside the Multiple Bottom we can target a 50% short term profit and much larger medium term gains.

🤔 Great but, Is this the first time this has happened?

Of course not. We have seen the exact same setup on many other occasions like GROY :

FSS

OR DOCU

These patterns carry a very high probability of success. They usually offer a risk to reward ratio of at least 3 to 1. You must trust your tight Stop Loss and never risk more capital than necessary.

Have you spotted any other stock that could be now in the bottom of the cycle? Would love to read you in comments!
#LearningTogether #TrendingTopic #analysis

People like to say 90% lose because they are unskilled. That explanation is too clean. The truth feels messier when you’ve actually been inside the market.
Most people don’t lose on their first trade. They lose after a few small wins. That’s when something shifts. You start trusting your feeling more than the price. You stop waiting. You enter early because you don’t want to miss it again. Fear of missing out wears a clever mask. It feels like confidence.
Then comes the hesitation. You’re in profit but you wait, because last time it went higher. This time it doesn’t. You watch green turn pale, then red. You tell yourself it will come back. Sometimes it does. That’s the worst part. It teaches the wrong lesson.
Losses pile up quietly. Not in one big blow, but through small decisions made while tired, bored, or slightly angry. Overtrading feels productive. Doing nothing feels like falling behind. So you trade to feel in control, even when you’re not.
I’ve noticed most damage doesn’t come from bad analysis. It comes from emotion pretending to be logic. Greed when things go right. Revenge when they don’t. And regret sitting in the background, pushing the next decision.
Over time, you start seeing it. The market isn’t cruel. It’s indifferent. It simply reflects who you are when money is involved.

#Marketpsychology #LearningFromMistakes #LearningTogether
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I just downloaded the app, everyone chooses to ask where to start investing and how to do it. Here is the money I have, right? I just transferred it to funding.

Why the best traders do not go broke — even when making mistakes — and how institutional capital is structured to survive any market regime.
1. DRAWNDOWN IS NOT A PROBLEM — IT'S A NATURAL CONDITION
The biggest illusion of the trader is trying to eliminate drawdown. Institutions know something that retail ignores: every profitable system inevitably goes through periods of loss.
The professional goal is not to avoid drawdown, but:
Predict your existence.
Structurally limit it.
Survive it without psychological or irreversible financial damage.

Recent concerns among Binance traders suggest that the crypto market might not
be as transparent as it seems. Many have observed strange patterns, such as
large orders appearing in the order book only to disappear moments later. These
activities, often orchestrated by high-frequency trading bots or influential players,
create an uneven playing field that leaves small traders at a disadvantage.
The Tools of Manipulation
Market manipulation isn’t new, but the tactics employed by some entities are
becoming increasingly sophisticated. Here are two key strategies that disrupt fair
trading:
Spoofing: This involves placing large, deceptive orders to create an illusion
of market movement. Once other traders react, the orders are swiftly
canceled, leaving unsuspecting participants at a loss.Wash Trading: In this scheme, manipulators trade with themselves to
inflate trading volumes. This artificial activity can mislead others into
believing an asset is in high demand.
Such practices distort market data, making it harder for retail traders to make
informed decisions and creating an advantage for those who exploit these tactics.
Steps Binance Can Take to Restore Trust
To ensure a level playing field, Binance should consider implementing the following measures:
Enhanced Order Monitoring: Deploy advanced algorithms to identify and
flag orders that are frequently canceled or show irregular patterns.Strict Penalties for Manipulators: Impose significant sanctions on accounts
involved in spoofing or wash trading to deter future violations.Bot Regulation: Introduce stringent controls over trading bots, including
tighter operational limits and mandatory disclosures.Order Durability Rules: Require orders to remain active for a minimum
duration to discourage spoofing and ensure genuine intent.Trader Education: Offer educational resources to help small traders
recognize manipulation tactics and protect their investments.
Why Binance Must Lead the Way
As the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance has a unique
responsibility to foster a transparent and trustworthy trading environment. Small
traders form the foundation of the crypto ecosystem, and their continued
participation is vital for long-term market health. If fairness is compromised,
traders may shift to platforms that prioritize equity and integrity.
Taking a proactive stance against manipulation benefits not just traders but
Binance itself, reinforcing its position as a leader in the crypto space. By
prioritizing transparency, Binance can ensure that the market works for
everyone—not just a privileged few.
What’s your view on market manipulation? Share your thoughts on how Binance
and other exchanges can create a fairer trading environment for all.

#Binance #MarketManipulation #MarketSentimentToday #LearningTogether