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$BNB $BTC $ZEC
#比特币突破8万美元大关

$BTC is currently trading at $79,966.10, up +0.92% from the October 24 low of $79,240.90. A $100,000 long position opened at the low with 10x leverage would show a static unrealized profit of about $9,152—an arithmetic illustration that excludes funding rates, slippage, and liquidation risk, and is not a recommendation to trade.

What happened over the weekend

An AI-driven stock selloff dragged BTC down to around $79,280, liquidating $404.2 million in long positions. Peter Schiff said Bitcoin had “finally started to fall,” with $75,000 as the next target. Farside data showed net outflows of $773.5 million from spot ETFs from Thursday to Friday. The Fear & Greed Index stood at 40, in neutral-to-fear territory. But the October 24 low remained unbroken.

Structural outlook

Above: 81,021 (24-hour high) → 84,897 (October 21 high)
Below: 79,880 → 79,240 (previous low)

Whether the price can reclaim 81,000 before Wednesday is key to determining whether the market structure repairs this week or continues to trade sideways.

Macroeconomic factor

The Fed will announce its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, with futures pricing in roughly a 90% chance of no change. At current pricing, holding steady is no longer a surprise; the real variables are the wording of the statement and the tone of the press conference.

Takeaway

When bearish voices are loudest but the price refuses to make a new low, it may indicate that selling momentum is fading—but this is only a hypothesis, not a reason to enter a trade. ETF outflows and liquidation pressure are facts, and so is the fact that the low has held. Until 81,000 is reclaimed, “repair” is a more reasonable description than “reversal.”

Staying on the sidelines isn’t wrong; watching without clear conditions is. Watch 81,000 and 79,240 first, then consider the direction.

#BTC #MacroInsights #风险提示

At the time of writing, $ETH is trading at $2,357.43, up +3.40% from the October 24 low of $2,279.97. A $100,000 long position opened at the low with 10x leverage would show a static unrealized profit of about $33,974—but this is a mathematical illustration that excludes funding rates, slippage, and liquidation risk, and is not investment advice.

Capital flows: Exchange net outflows are a more useful variable to track
Santiment data shows that on October 23, net ETH outflows from exchanges totaled 169,770 ETH, worth about $407 million—the largest single-day outflow in four months. The previous larger outflow occurred on June 5, and was later viewed as a local buying opportunity. Net outflows do not mean prices will necessarily rise, but they do at least reflect a marginal easing of short-term selling pressure.

Institutions: ETF flows and large-holder accumulation both cool
As of October 22, ETH ETFs had seen cumulative outflows of $1.2 billion, making this the worst month of 2026 so far. Bitmine has slowed its accumulation to about 12,500 ETH per week and currently holds 6.04 million ETH, close to 5% of ETH's total supply. Marginal buying from large institutions is weakening.

Price structure: ETH's rebound is stronger than BTC's
ETH has rebounded more than 3% from its low, compared with about 2% for BTC over the same period. This gap suggests spot buyers are taking the baton themselves, rather than simply following institutional flows.

Technical levels
Above: 2,390 (24-hour high) → 2,470 → 2,548 (20-day/50-day moving averages)
Below: Around 2,357 (100-day moving average) → 2,330 → 2,279 low
Macro factor: The Federal Reserve's October 28 rate decision.

#ETH #MacroInsights #风险提示

The biggest takeaway today: Ethereum has hit pause on the Glamsterdam hard fork, which was scheduled to activate on the Hoodi testnet on October 26. $ETH

The problem isn’t a coding error; it’s a blind spot in the rules. EIP-8037 and EIP-8038 aim to optimize Gas pricing, but they could change how Gas is refunded after failed external calls. In an extreme scenario, a malicious caller could use just-not-enough Gas to trick a contract into permanently recording a failed operation—potentially locking users out of retrying a transaction or claiming what they’re owed.

ChainSecurity has already found 13 real-world cases in existing contracts and is working with the project teams on responsible disclosure. The names have not been made public yet. The Ethereum Foundation has also confirmed that replaying transactions on mainnet showed that a small number of contracts could be affected. Most can be fixed by raising the Gas limit, but contracts with hard-coded Gas assumptions won’t be so easy to fix.

The upgrade was originally planned for mainnet in early December; now the timeline is up in the air again. The plan to raise Hoodi’s Gas limit to 200 million has also been delayed. Nodes and validators should follow the update announcements; ordinary mainnet users and ETH holders don’t need to do anything for now.

My take: upgrades need to move faster, but not at the cost of the security of existing applications. Catching this kind of “rule-level side effect” during the testnet phase is far cheaper than dealing with a permanent failure after mainnet launch. Trading short-term uncertainty for fewer problems down the road is worth it.

#以太坊 #Glamsterdam #EIP8037 #安全前置 #MacroInsights

61,800 BTC linked to a $5.7 billion fraud case: confiscation does not mean compensation

Chinese prosecutors have applied to confiscate more than 61,800 units of $BTC , an asset linked to an alleged investment fraud case. The case involved more than 102,000 investors between 2014 and 2017, with over RMB 40.378 billion raised and investor losses of nearly RMB 20 billion. The funds were reportedly used to purchase assets including Bitcoin, real estate, and luxury goods.

Case developments:
• The alleged mastermind, Qian Zhimin, reportedly fled to the UK, where the relevant BTC was later seized by British authorities.
• A Chinese court has accepted prosecutors’ confiscation application and opened a six-month proceeding for victims and other interested parties to participate.
• Previously, the UK High Court ruled that Chinese law should apply to victims’ claims to the BTC in question.

Key reminder:
The start of confiscation proceedings ≠ automatic compensation for victims. Victims’ legal claims and entitlement to recover assets still need to be assessed and determined separately.

The central dispute in this case is no longer just the recovery of assets from fraud, but also the ownership of cross-border crypto assets, mechanisms for their return, and their legal classification. The ownership of 61,800 BTC will be an important case to watch in the judicial handling of cross-border crypto assets.

#BTC #加密资产 #跨境司法 #宏观

Two weeks now, and $BTC is still knocking on the same door: 83,500

Back and forth between 81,500 and 83,500. Buyers have charged at it several times, but still haven't pushed the door open.

My chart notes are just three lines:
• A clear 4-hour close above 83,500 → the door opens; watch 85,000, then 87,000
• A break below 81,500 → look back toward 79,500
• Right now: the lower end has held, but buyers still don't have the upper hand

The good news: the floor is still holding.
The bad news: we still don't have the key.

Until the range breaks, I'm not picking a side. I'll wait for the market to make the first move.

#BTC #比特币预测 #看盘笔记