张无忌wepoets

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张无忌wepoets

博士，期权交易员&期权教育博主，冰火岛社区创办者。

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张无忌wepoets

From 8/29 to 9/5, I’m going out for a week—my Icefire Island options notes and research notes will stop updating.
Updates resume on 9/6.
Whee—just a heads-up in advance

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张无忌wepoets

Hello everyone. Let’s set up an Ice and Fire Island Options VIP group. Members can receive one-on-one guidance on options trading strategies, and can use quantitative tools for free, including 【End-of-Term Options Buyer Signal Subscription】【Ice and Fire Island Insider Notes】【Ice and Fire Island DDH Workbench】.

Valid for one year. Friends who are interested can join.
冰火岛VIP群

张无忌wepoets

Invest in long-term U.S. Treasuries—how should you choose among different ETFs?

TLT: iShares pure long-term Treasury ETF. It directly holds U.S. Treasuries with maturities of 20+ years, with no options. You earn from coupon yield plus capital gains if rates fall. When interest rates rise, it tends to drop the most. It’s currently suggested to buy the dip.

TLTW: iShares sells monthly 2% out-of-the-money covered calls on TLT. It collects option premium to thicken the monthly income (~8–11%). The trade-off is that returns are capped when TLT surges sharply. Expense ratio: 0.35%. You can buy again no earlier than when the price has risen back above the 60-day moving average.

TLTP: Amplify sells weekly at-the-money covered calls. Target annualized option premium around 12%, with higher monthly income (~12–14%), but a tighter cap and the fund is newer (launched in 2024), with weaker liquidity. Expense ratio: 0.39%. Buy after the market enters a bull phase.

TLTWETF-0.13%

TLTETF-0.87%

TLTPETF+0.10%

张无忌wepoets

Let me say a new hot take
Buy US Treasury ETFs at this time: TLT or related options
In the next three months, it will most likely see a massive surge

TLTETF-0.87%

张无忌wepoets

【BTC Reclaims $80K as NVIDIA Earnings Spark an AI Rally, SOL Soars 8% to Lead, Worsh’s Speech Today Sets the Tone】

Fear and Greed Index 73, the greed zone. BTC is at $80,761, up 2.65% in the past 24 hours, reclaiming the area above $80,000. NVIDIA’s earnings fueled a global AI rally—overnight Nasdaq rose 1.57%, NVDA surged 8.74% in a single day, and its market cap increased by $442 billion, the second-highest on record. Salesforce jumped 22.6% and CrowdStrike rose 20.5%, driving a breakout in the software and cybersecurity sectors. July’s year-over-year PCE inflation persistence remains at 3.7%. Today’s biggest variable is the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Wads—Jackson Hole. With an increasingly hawkish background, rate-cut expectations remain uncertain; the probability of a rate hike in September still hangs overhead.
Cryptocurrency recommendations

Verified

[NVDA Earnings Beat Expectations, Jumping 4% After Hours; SOL Returns to Lead Above 100; XRP Downtrend Warning Persists]

Fear and Greed Index at 71, rising from 65 yesterday and back into the Greed zone. BTC is at $78,726, trading sideways and stabilizing, building strength below the 80,000 level. Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes edged down slightly, but Nvidia’s after-hours earnings exploded—second-quarter revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year and beating expectations. Data center revenue was $89.0 billion. Management expects revenue growth of about 70% in fiscal 2028. Shares jumped 4% after hours, lifting storage and optical communications sectors as well. U.S. July core PCE met expectations, still above the 2% target. Iran and Oman reached an agreement to temporarily restart navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, easing tensions in the Middle East and pulling oil prices lower.

[After BTC breaks above $80K, a pullback near 79K—leverage liquidation risk emerges; ZEC leads the decline with a 8.5% drop as warnings play out; XRP rises 30% on the week but profits are taken]

Fear & Greed Index: 65, down 9 points from yesterday’s 74; still in the Greed zone but clearly cooling off. BTC is at $79,105, down 1.85% over the past 24 hours. After rallying during yesterday’s session and breaking above 81,000 to a three-month high, it pulled back—losing the 80,000 level again. In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw $1.784 billion in total liquidations, with long liquidations of $1.271 billion (70%), signaling that leveraged “stampede” risk is beginning to emerge. The U.S. July PCE data is released today, and the next key variable will be Fed Chair Powell’s Aug 28 Jackson Hole speech by the end of this month. The pullback looks like normal digestion after a surge. The crucial question is whether $78,000 can hold.
Crypto asset recommendations
BTC
Current: $79,105 | Down 1.85% in the past 24 hours | Up 22% this week | Composite score 35/100

[BTC returns to $80,000 after 113 days; SOL breaks through 100 with volume to lead the whole market; ZEC up 64% week-over-week with an overbought warning]

Fear & Greed Index: 74. The Greed zone is overheated, approaching the 75 extreme greed warning line. BTC is at $79,694, up 3.05% over the past 24 hours. After 113 days, it returned to $80,000 but then dipped slightly—this is the first time it has been above $80,000 since May 4. Last week, total net inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs were about $2.6 billion, the largest single-week inflow in 10 months. The Treasury Secretary’s debt buyback program will start on September 9, and Bessent’s remarks have turned somewhat more measured—bearish for some rate-cut expectations, though the broader trend remains unchanged. Over the past 24 hours, total crypto derivatives liquidations across the whole market were about $179 million, with short positions dominating; the squeeze is still ongoing.
Cryptocurrency recommendation
SOL
Current: $101.98 | Up 7.76% in 24 hours | Up 32.12% in 7 days | Overall score 85/100

【BTC weekend shallow pullback recovered 77.5k, long structure not broken; ZEC weekly up 63% — severe overbought warning; HYPE all-chain derivatives weekly up 38%】

BTC at $77,504. Up 0.22% over the past 24 hours. After retreating from a weekend high of $78,000 down to $75,866, it rebounded quickly. On Monday, it regained the $77,500 level with only a shallow pullback that was quickly repaired. In the past 24 hours, 179,200 traders were liquidated, totaling nearly $900 million; over 80% were long positions, and the leverage cleanup is complete. The weekly trend is still strong—ETH is up 28% for the week, XRP up 46%, and ZEC up 63%. The Fear & Greed Index is 73; the Greed zone is somewhat hot, nearing the 75 “Extreme Greed” alert threshold. The pullback is healthy turnover, and the long-side structure has not been broken.
Cryptocurrency recommendations
BTC
Current: $77,504 | Up 0.22% in 24 hours | Up about 22% this week | Composite score 68/100

[ZEC breakout with volume bullish toward 850, XRP strengthens against the trend +1.60, BNB holds up awaiting a break above 730, BTC consolidates at highs around 77k]

BTC at $77,066, down 1.1% in 24h. Fear & Greed Index: 66 (greed range). The overall market is consolidating at high levels. BTC keeps probing above 77k, attempts to break above 78k face resistance and pull back. Major coins are diverging clearly: ZEC surged 7.5% to lead, XRP rose 2.8% against the trend, while ETH, LINK, and SUI are weakening. In terms of flows, the BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $240 million this week. Institutional buying remains supportive, but there are signs that short-term profit-taking may be easing.
Crypto currency recommendation
ZEC
Current: $791 | 24h +7.5% | 78/100
Forecast: Bullish. 3-day target: $820–$870
Logic: The privacy-sector leader breaks out with increased volume. Volume and price action are healthy and in sync, and relative strength versus BTC shows BTC moving out with a distinct, independent trend.

【BTC weekly gain of 22% breaks above 78k; double catalysts from Treasury buyback + the CLARITY Act; $2.7B short squeeze fuels upside; ETF inflows of $1.6B over four days—watch for the hawkish Waller risk】

BTC reaches $77,837, up 3% over the past 24 hours. This week, it surged from $62,800 and broke above $78,000, for a cumulative gain of 22%. The real three key drivers: the U.S. Treasury doubles the cap on long-term bond buybacks; Trump’s White House meets with crypto executives urging Congress to advance the CLARITY Act; and $2.7 billion in short positions is squeezed, creating a self-reinforcing upward loop. Spot ETF net inflows on August 20 were $606 million, with $1.61 billion accumulated over four days. The Fear & Greed Index is 71 (in the Greed zone). The RSI is at 77.8 and has entered overbought territory. But note—Fed Chair Waller is hawkish. The Jackson Hole remarks are not until August 28, and the 36.2% probability of a September rate hike remains an overhead risk.

【BTC Breaks 72K, Gains 15% WoW; Fear & Greed Jumps to 72 into Greed Zone; Trump Pushes Crypto Bill at White House; ETH Rallies 20% in Two Days; Storage Chipmakers Micron and Marvell Lead】

BTC trades at $72,674, up 4.42% in the past 24 hours. After breaking above $72,000 for the first time since early June, BTC has gained 15% this week. Key driver shift: after the impact of the Ministry of Finance’s buyback fades, Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House and urged Congress to pass a crypto bill as a new catalyst. The Fear & Greed Index jumped from 46 to 72 in two days, entering the Greed zone. However, investors should stay alert to divergence—U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded toward their 20-year highs. Trump’s sanctions on Iran have pushed oil prices to $93. Meanwhile, the Dow tumbled 703 points, and BTC has posted an independent move that has decoupled from risk assets.
Cryptocurrency recommendation

Partly True

【U.S. Treasury doubles its bailout Treasury repo program, BTC surges 8% to break above the head-and-shoulders neckline and targets 76,000; ETH rises 18% to break 2,100; shorts get liquidated for $1.4B; MSTR rockets 12.7%】

BTC rose to $69,415, up 7.41% in 24 hours, and at one point surged to $69,500 during the day. The trigger was the U.S. Treasury’s announcement that it would expand its long-term Treasury repurchase program—raising the single-transaction limit for 10-to-30-year maturities from $2.0 billion to at least $4.0 billion, and pushing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield from 5.34% down to 5.19%. The sudden drop in long-end rates opened a breather for risk assets that had been held back by high yields. Shorts were wiped out: $1.45 billion liquidated in 24 hours, with 110,000 positions liquidated in total—$1.29 billion of it from shorts. Gold also jumped 4.27% to stand above $4,519, while the U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.833. The Fear & Greed Index is 46 (latest official reading, not yet reflecting the surge; it is expected to jump sharply).

[BTC holds above 64k; Fear & Greed Index 46 repaired but still cautious—ETF saw $137M return on Monday; LINK up 15% leads; HYPE all-chain derivatives up 9% continues]

BTC at $64,440; up 0.18% over the past 24 hours. Yesterday it briefly surged to $64,586. After falling to $62,600 on Aug 14, it tested the $62,000 support twice in succession and both times held. On Tuesday, it regained strength and closed above $64,000. The Fear & Greed Index is 46, still in the Fear zone, but it has clearly recovered from the extreme fear of 25 earlier in the month. Key signals: On Monday, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $137 million, ending last week’s net outflow of $385 million—indicating a return of institutional demand. BTC is trading above the 20-day moving average at $63,802 and the 50-day moving average at $63,889, but the 100-day moving average at $66,416 remains long-term resistance.
Cryptocurrency recommendations
BTC

【BTC rebounds to 64k, LINK leads with a 15% weekly gain; HYPE all-chain derivatives up 9% this week; ZEC privacy narrative continues; institutions gear up ahead of Jackson Hole】

BTC at $64,027, up 1.21% over the past 24 hours, rebounding from yesterday’s low of $62,900. Market sentiment is gradually improving after a mild CPI release. Institutional buying continues, but retail participation is still lacking. The biggest variable this week is Thursday’s Jackson Hole central bank symposium—how Powell signals under a backdrop of high inflation will determine the September policy path. Treasury Secretary Bessent clarified that the strategic reserve will be built through "budget-neutral acquisitions" rather than direct government purchases, easing market speculation about a "government buying crypto". The Fear and Greed Index remains in the Fear zone, though its structure is improving.
Cryptocurrency recommendations

Verified

【Real yields surge to 2.41% and hit a two-year high; BTC without cash flow comes under pressure and pulls back to 63k—gold keeps making new highs as a safe haven remains king; ZEC privacy narrative strengthens against the trend】

Near $63,000, BTC remained weak and continued to consolidate on Monday. Global bond yields climbed to their highest level since 2008—US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.69%, while real yields reached 2.41%, the highest in two years. In the Aug 13 U.S. Treasury’s $25 billion 10-year auction, the winning yield was 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and the bid-to-cover ratio was only 2.39 times, indicating weak demand. For BTC, which generates no cash flow, this is a hurdle that’s hard to cross: over the past year BTC fell 46%, while gold rose 32% to $4,376 over the same period. The pain from QT was felt for the first time with no buffering transmission—when the RRP liquidity pool ran out and reserves tightened, it directly pulled risk exposure from institutions.

[LINK Jumps 14% Over 7 Days as the Standout, ADA Plunges 11%—Funds Flee; MSTR Rides BTC Strength]

BTC is at $63,084, with a near-flat gain of 0.1% over the past 24 hours; it is still down 2.9% over 7 days. The Fear & Greed Index is 34 (Fear). Market sentiment is cautious, and volume is subdued—funds are waiting for direction. Divergence among altcoins is increasing: LINK is the standout with +14% over 7 days, while ADA is down 11% over 7 days.
Cryptocurrency recommendation
LINK
Current: $9.43 | 7D +14.0% | Composite score 82/100
Forecast: Bullish. 3-day target: $10.2–$10.5
Rationale: The only coin that has shown independent strong momentum. Over 7 days +14%, and it rose another 4% within 24 hours. Price and volume are well-coordinated and healthy.
Risk: The short-term rally is already strong. If the broader market weakens, there is a risk of a quick pullback.

[BTC breaks below the $63k level, $238 million longs liquidated; Coldcard theft of $113 million in Bitcoin fuels rising privacy narrative; ZEC rises against the trend; storage chip maker SanDisk (or “Sandisk”) continues to gain 7%]

Bitcoin is at $62,877, falling below the $63,000 level that it has held for weeks. In the past 24 hours, it has dropped more than 1%. Over the last 24 hours, the entire market saw liquidations of $238 million, leaving long leveraged positions trapped. The BTC ETF recorded a net outflow of $131 million, indicating weaker institutional demand. Three things have piled up to weigh on sentiment: confirmation of the Coldcard hardware wallet attack, with 1,778 BTC stolen (about $113 million); the SEC temporarily cancelling a meeting on crypto rules; and a rebound in oil prices that has revived concerns about inflation. Liquidity is thin over the weekend, and once the level broke, volatility amplified.
Cryptocurrency recommendations
BTC
Current: $62,877 | Broke below the $63,000 level | Composite score 28/100

Ice and Fire Island Community GitHub Open-Source List

Unknowingly, I’ve developed so many options trading tools and quantitative strategy scripts. Today I’ll整理 (organize) and share them. If you have similar ideas, you can directly modify and optimize based on the scripts to save tokens. All projects I upload to GitHub have been tested for stability first.

1. Options Tools and Analysis (12)

1、Options Eye (Options Eye) — Deribit Options IV Surface Anomaly Scanner + Strategy Suggestions
https://github.com/wepoets1107/options-eye

2、binghuodao-DDH-tools — Deribit Dynamic Delta Hedging Workbench
https://github.com/wepoets1107/binghuodao-DDH-tools

[BTC $1.4B Options Expire Today, Magnetize to 64K; FTX Auction Adds 55K BTC Sell Pressure; Storage-Chip Leader SanDisk Jumps 13.6%, Leads U.S. Stocks]

BTC near $64,000, with $1.4B in crypto options expiring today—$1.28B in BTC options open interest, the biggest pain point at $64,000; ETH’s biggest pain point at $1,900. On the exercise date, the "magnet effect" pulls the price toward and anchors it near the pain point. Meanwhile, today auctions of assets from the bankrupt FTX include 55,000 BTC and 300,000 ETH, adding extra sell pressure. Macroeconomic forces intertwine bullish and bearish signals: the U.S. July PPI came in unexpectedly below expectations, but the Fed’s Hamermack and Baly key figures have released hawkish signals in quick succession. In U.S. stocks, a surge in storage-chip demand: SanDisk jumped 13.6%, SK Hynix rose 7%, and Micron gained 4%.
Recommended cryptocurrencies

BTC+1.71%

ETH+2.52%

SOL+2.77%

张无忌wepoets

【BTC Reclaims $80K as NVIDIA Earnings Spark an AI Rally, SOL Soars 8% to Lead, Worsh’s Speech Today Sets the Tone】

[NVDA Earnings Beat Expectations, Jumping 4% After Hours; SOL Returns to Lead Above 100; XRP Downtrend Warning Persists]

[After BTC breaks above $80K, a pullback near 79K—leverage liquidation risk emerges; ZEC leads the decline with a 8.5% drop as warnings play out; XRP rises 30% on the week but profits are taken]

[BTC returns to $80,000 after 113 days; SOL breaks through 100 with volume to lead the whole market; ZEC up 64% week-over-week with an overbought warning]

【BTC weekend shallow pullback recovered 77.5k, long structure not broken; ZEC weekly up 63% — severe overbought warning; HYPE all-chain derivatives weekly up 38%】

[ZEC breakout with volume bullish toward 850, XRP strengthens against the trend +1.60, BNB holds up awaiting a break above 730, BTC consolidates at highs around 77k]

【BTC weekly gain of 22% breaks above 78k; double catalysts from Treasury buyback + the CLARITY Act; $2.7B short squeeze fuels upside; ETF inflows of $1.6B over four days—watch for the hawkish Waller risk】

【BTC Breaks 72K, Gains 15% WoW; Fear & Greed Jumps to 72 into Greed Zone; Trump Pushes Crypto Bill at White House; ETH Rallies 20% in Two Days; Storage Chipmakers Micron and Marvell Lead】

【U.S. Treasury doubles its bailout Treasury repo program, BTC surges 8% to break above the head-and-shoulders neckline and targets 76,000; ETH rises 18% to break 2,100; shorts get liquidated for $1.4B; MSTR rockets 12.7%】

[BTC holds above 64k; Fear & Greed Index 46 repaired but still cautious—ETF saw $137M return on Monday; LINK up 15% leads; HYPE all-chain derivatives up 9% continues]

【BTC rebounds to 64k, LINK leads with a 15% weekly gain; HYPE all-chain derivatives up 9% this week; ZEC privacy narrative continues; institutions gear up ahead of Jackson Hole】

【Real yields surge to 2.41% and hit a two-year high; BTC without cash flow comes under pressure and pulls back to 63k—gold keeps making new highs as a safe haven remains king; ZEC privacy narrative strengthens against the trend】

[LINK Jumps 14% Over 7 Days as the Standout, ADA Plunges 11%—Funds Flee; MSTR Rides BTC Strength]

[BTC breaks below the $63k level, $238 million longs liquidated; Coldcard theft of $113 million in Bitcoin fuels rising privacy narrative; ZEC rises against the trend; storage chip maker SanDisk (or “Sandisk”) continues to gain 7%]

Ice and Fire Island Community GitHub Open-Source List

[BTC $1.4B Options Expire Today, Magnetize to 64K; FTX Auction Adds 55K BTC Sell Pressure; Storage-Chip Leader SanDisk Jumps 13.6%, Leads U.S. Stocks]

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