Hi everyone, I'm setting up an Ice and Fire Island Options VIP group. Members can receive one-on-one guidance on options strategies and use the Ice and Fire Island community's open-source quantitative tools for free.
Membership is valid for one year. Anyone interested is welcome to join. 冰火岛VIP群
【Democrats sweep both chambers, BTC reclaims $80K; UNI breaks above 20-day high with $8.4 in sight; data centers become scarce, Microsoft eyes $600】
The Fear & Greed Index stands at 43 (November 5 reading), in neutral territory. BTC is up 5.28% at $80,491, reclaiming $80,000, while ETH leads major cryptocurrencies, up 7.69% at $2,421. After Democrats swept both chambers of Congress, markets expect the Iran war to wind down. Oil plunged 8% in a single day, while the dollar and Treasury yields both fell, driving a broad recovery in risk appetite. But the same election results are also prompting a reassessment of the political costs of AI computing power—that is today's real main theme. Recommended cryptocurrencies UNI Current: $7.709 | Up 8.44% in 24 hours | Up 5.19% in 7 days | Overall score: 70/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target of $8.40–$8.80
【BTC Stages a Sharp V-Shaped Rebound as Democrats Win Both Chambers; PEPE Shows Support Holds, Eyes $0.0000052; AMD Earnings Confirm AI Momentum Hasn’t Faded】
The Fear & Greed Index stood at 36 (November 4 reading), indicating fear. BTC was at $77,940, up 1.80%, and ETH was at $2,295, up 2.25%. BTC briefly fell below $76,000 intraday, hitting a low of $75,690 before staging a V-shaped recovery. As expectations that Democrats would win both chambers of Congress gradually played out, near-term uncertainty around crypto regulatory legislation cleared. Combined with AMD’s earnings confirming that AI capital spending is still accelerating, risk appetite reversed course on Election Day. Recommended Cryptocurrencies PEPE Current: $0.00000496 | Up 5.98% in 24 hours | Up 5.87% in 7 days | Overall score: 68/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target of $0.00000520–$0.00000550
【Binance Replenishes 90% of Stolen Assets; HYPE Gains 16% in 7 Days, Eyes $100; Storage Sold Out Through 2029, Micron Eyes $1,010】
The Fear & Greed Index stands at 37 (November 2 reading), in fear territory. BTC is at $78,458, up 0.90%, back above $78,000; ETH is at $2,296, up 1.34%. Binance confirmed that about $6.3 billion was stolen from its hot wallets on October 29, and that it has used its own funds to replenish 90% of the assets. Withdrawals are being restored in stages across 15 networks. Net outflows over 24 hours reached $5.8 billion, about 3.4% of its $171 billion in customer assets. Ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, the market is choosing to repair leverage first rather than bet on a direction. Cryptocurrency Picks HYPE Current: $87.79 | Down 0.47% in 24 hours | Up 15.05% in 7 days | Overall score: 72/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target: $95–104
【Exchange security incident weighs on BTC, which falls below $78K; HYPE taps into the NYSE, eyes $100; Apple hits a record closing high, eyes $365】
The Fear & Greed Index stood at 34 (October 30 reading), indicating fear. BTC traded at $77,245, down 3.51%, falling below $80,000 to its lowest level since September. ETH traded at $2,215, down 4.18%. Binance disclosed that its hot wallet may have been hacked; it suspended all deposits and withdrawals and froze around $3 billion in assets. Glassnode's on-chain estimate puts the outflow at around $5.3 billion, though this has not been officially confirmed. Liquidations across the crypto market totaled $1.49 billion over 24 hours, with longs accounting for 86.8%. The Fed held rates steady on October 29, as crypto absorbed selling pressure in tech stocks with high beta. Crypto Picks HYPE Current: $90.56 | Up 15.00% in 24 hours | Up 14.95% in 7 days | Overall score: 71/100
【BTC Reclaims $80K on Low Volume Ahead of FOMC; ZEC Breaks Above 20-Day High, Eyes $1,400; NEAR Leads Layer 1s, Eyes $5.2】
The Fear & Greed Index stood at a neutral 46 on October 28. BTC was at $80,950, up 1.29%, reclaiming the $80,000 level, while ETH was at $2,358, up 1.76%. This rebound followed a 3.6% overnight gain in U.S. semiconductor stocks, with all 30 index constituents closing higher. However, total market trading volume fell 11%, and short positions accounted for 66.7% of liquidations over the past 24 hours—making this essentially a low-volume, short-squeeze recovery. The FOMC decision and Warsh's press conference in the early hours of October 29 Beijing time will determine whether $80,000 holds. Cryptocurrency Recommendations ZEC Current: $1,313.16 | Up 7.32% in 24 hours | Up 4.17% in 7 days | Overall score: 69/100
The Fear & Greed Index stands at 43 (October 27 reading), in neutral territory. BTC is at $79,666, essentially flat over the past 24 hours, while ETH is at $2,310, up slightly by 0.07%; both have hit 20-day lows. Markets are broadly reducing risk ahead of the October 28 FOMC decision. The $1.3 billion in liquidations triggered by the weekend drop from $84,800 to $79,100 has yet to be recovered. Spot buying is absent, and leveraged longs are still being forced to reduce positions. $80,000 has shifted from support to the first key resistance that must be reclaimed for a rebound. Crypto Recommendations QNT Current: $201.65 | Up 6.24% in 24 hours | Up 4.73% in 7 days | Overall score: 69/100 Forecast: Bullish, 3-day target: $225–$240
Middle East Evacuation Order Sparks Flight to Safety; ENA Leads Against the Trend, Targeting $0.232, While BNB Holds Firmest, Targeting $800
The Fear & Greed Index is neutral at 43 (October 26 reading). BTC is at $79,593, down 1.61%, and ETH is at $2,305, down 2.58%. The U.S. has ordered nonessential personnel stationed in Saudi Arabia to leave, while market rumors suggest the U.S. and Israel may strike Iran again after the midterm elections. Brent crude briefly surged to $117. Crypto saw $670 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with 213,000 traders liquidated, as risk assets faced a broad weekend sell-off. Cryptocurrency Picks ENA Current: $0.2029 | 24-hour gain: 3.63% | 7-day gain: 9.82% | Overall score: 71/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target: $0.218–$0.232 Rationale: The only qualifying asset in the entire market to rise against the trend. Its 7-day gain of 9.82% leads the candidate pool. The price has moved back above the 50-day moving average and is testing the upper boundary of a descending channel. Its 20-day deviation is just -1.42%, indicating a clean setup. In the 24-hour liquidation breakdown, $1.12 million in shorts were liquidated, far exceeding the $445,000 in longs—a classic short-squeeze rebound.
AI leads against the trend, targeting $0.023; BNB holds up best, targeting $800; oil above $110, CL eyes $108
The Fear and Greed Index was neutral at 48 (October 23 reading). BTC was at $81,295, down 2.52%, and ETH was at $2,391, down 2.40%. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said tight capital supply is becoming a major obstacle to AI infrastructure expansion. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil above $110, prompting global risk assets to deleverage in tandem, with funds shifting out of the AI sector and into cash-flow-generating and real assets. Cryptocurrency Picks AI Current: $0.0201 | Up 4.14% in 24 hours | Up 3.66% in 7 days | Overall score: 79/100 Outlook: Bullish; 3-day target: $0.0215–$0.0230 Rationale: The only qualifying asset rising against the trend across the board. Its ADX of 43.8 is the strongest among all monitored coins, while its 20-day deviation of just +1.16% suggests it is not overextended. The price is building momentum near the shared 20-day and 90-day high of $0.0213. At the sector level, the AI narrative ranks first in DEX trading volume across Solana, BNB Chain, and Base, totaling $176 million, making it the only story still attracting capital.
NEAR Inflation-Reduction Proposal Targets $5.9; ZEC’s NU7 Set for November, Targeting $1,480; ENA Eyes $0.24 on Rising Volume
The Fear & Greed Index is neutral at 52 (October 22 reading). BTC is at $83,360, up 0.50%, while ETH is at $2,449, down 0.20%. As major assets trade sideways, capital is rotating into small- and mid-cap assets with tightening tokenomics. NEAR’s inflation-reduction proposal, ZEC’s NU7 upgrade, and ENA’s buyback mechanism are all entering their catalyst windows. Cryptocurrency Recommendations NEAR Current: $5.204 | 24-hour gain: 4.31% | 7-day gain: 7.74% | Overall score: 80/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target of $5.6–$5.9 Rationale: A governance proposal aims to cut the annual inflation rate from 2.5% to 1.6% over two years, while fees from the cross-chain swap product NEAR Intents are already being partially used for token buybacks. ADX at 35.8 is the strongest trend reading in the market; the price has hit a 7-day high and is 5.38% above the EMA20. 24-hour trading volume is $166 million, among the highest for altcoins.
The Fear & Greed Index stood at 52 (October 21 reading), in neutral territory. BTC was at $83,152, up 1.76%, and ETH was at $2,455, up 2.25%. A retreat in international oil prices from a five-month high eased inflation concerns, while Treasury yields also fell, lifting risk assets across the board. However, this rebound was driven mainly by short covering, and spot buying has yet to return in a meaningful way. Cryptocurrency Picks ZEC Current: $1,272.39 | Up 11.21% in 24 hours | Up 3.16% in 7 days | Overall score: 76/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target: $1,380–$1,450 Rationale: Rotation into privacy coins, combined with the development team's October 20 vote on activating the NU7 upgrade—which aims to shorten block times and is slated to launch on November 5—has boosted sentiment. Gemini founder Winklevoss said the same day that ZEC is an AI hedge in crypto, adding that if its market cap rises from 2% to 10% of BTC's, that would imply fivefold upside. Its 24-hour trading volume of $201 million was the largest among altcoins that day. RSI at 51.1 remains in neutral territory, while its 20-day deviation is just +3.06%.
Can you sell U.S. stock options on Binance now? Some community members told me you can, but my seller interface says I can only sell covered options, not naked ones. Can anyone confirm whether naked selling is allowed? (Using USDC as collateral)
U.S. Earnings Week Drains Crypto; ARB Breaks Out on Heavy Volume, Targeting $0.22; UNI Lists on CME, Targeting $8.2
The Fear & Greed Index stood at 48 (October 20 reading), in neutral territory. BTC was at $81,584, down 1.14%, and ETH was at $2,391, down 1.48%. The Nasdaq rose 1.11% overnight, returning to the AI-led theme, while crypto diverged amid two consecutive weeks of net outflows from spot ETFs. Funds are being pulled away by this week's tech earnings reports. Recommended Cryptocurrencies ARB Current: $0.1991 | Up 4.19% in 24 hours | Up 9.74% in 7 days | Overall score: 77/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target: $0.21–$0.22 Rationale: A 2 million ARB stablecoin growth program launched on October 15. The first 10 teams to lock up $10 million in USDG will each receive 200,000 ARB. Entropy Advisors has also proposed adding 100 million ARB to DRIP, with a focus on USDG. This comes alongside the promotion of a revenue model to 40 European allocators managing a combined €800 billion, more than $1.2 billion in on-chain tokenized RWA, and a high-volume breakout from a symmetrical triangle, with the 24-hour volume ratio at 1.68.
December rate hike expectations reach as high as 91%; TIA holds firm against the trend, eyeing $0.72; INJ pulls back on low volume, eyeing $9.5
【December rate hike expectations reach as high as 91%; TIA holds firm against the trend, eyeing $0.72; INJ pulls back on low volume, eyeing $9.5】 The Fear & Greed Index stands at 49 (October 19 reading), in neutral territory. BTC is at $82,144, up 0.83%, while ETH is at $2,408, up 0.27%. Fed Chair Warsh gave no hawkish guidance at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok on October 16. The probability of an October rate hike has fallen to 17.2%, but market expectations for a December rate hike remain as high as 91%. Crypto markets are trading sideways on low volume as they wait for direction. Cryptocurrency Recommendations INJ Current: $8.526 | Down 0.84% in 24 hours | Up 12.37% in 7 days | Overall score: 81/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target: $9.0–$9.5
Rate-hike expectations plunge, sparking an altcoin rally; TIA hits a new 2026 high, eyeing $0.80; INJ sees a volume surge, targeting $10.5
【Rate-hike expectations plunge, sparking an altcoin rally; TIA hits a new 2026 high, eyeing $0.80; INJ sees a volume surge, targeting $10.5】 The Fear & Greed Index stands at a neutral 51 (October 16 reading). BTC is at $82,318, up 1.72%, while ETH is at $2,470, up 4.49%. Fed Chair Warsh gave no indication of a rate hike at the IMF meeting in Bangkok. The market-implied probability of a rate hike in October fell from 30% to around 15%, triggering a broad rally in risk assets, while the Altcoin Season Index rose from 50 to 60. Crypto Recommendations INJ Current: $9.192 | Up 28.11% in 24 hours | Up 26.4% in 7 days | Overall score: 85/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target of $9.8–$10.5
Hotter-than-expected CPI weighs on risk assets; STX defies the downturn, eyeing $0.48, while APT’s supply schedule shift puts $0.90 in focus
【Hotter-than-expected CPI weighs on risk assets; STX defies the downturn, eyeing $0.48, while APT’s supply schedule shift puts $0.90 in focus】 The Fear & Greed Index is neutral at 50 (October 15 reading). BTC is at $81,639, down 2.42%, while ETH is at $2,422, down 3.82%. U.S. September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, while core CPI rose 2.6%, with both exceeding expectations. The probability of an October rate hike rose from 22% to around 35%. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar climbed in tandem, weighing on crypto and growth stocks alike. Cryptocurrency Picks STX Current: $0.4276 | Down 2.31% in 24 hours | Up 14.37% in 7 days | Overall score: 79/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target of $0.46–$0.48
OP ecosystem upgrade goes live, target $0.20; INJ becomes the first SEC transfer agent L1, target $9.5; TIA price-volume convergence points to $0.65
【OP ecosystem upgrade goes live, target $0.20; INJ becomes the first SEC transfer agent L1, target $9.5; TIA price-volume convergence points to $0.65】 The Fear & Greed Index stands at 55 (October 14 reading), remaining neutral to slightly greedy. BTC is at $83,248, up 2.05%, and ETH is at $2,501, up 2.81%. South Korea’s KOSPI fell more than 5% at one point intraday, while Samsung and SK Hynix plunged. Risk aversion spilled over, but crypto bucked the trend and closed higher. The rebound was mainly driven by a concentrated wave of ecosystem-level catalysts across Layer 2 and altcoins. Cryptocurrency Picks OP Current: $0.1596 | Up 21.65% in 24 hours | Up 21.46% in 7 days | Overall score: 78/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target of $0.185–$0.20
#比特币期权波动率创五年新低 Declining volatility in core assets is a trend—not just a Bitcoin phenomenon. Low volatility is both the market’s choice and the result of trading. Buying insurance during periods of low volatility helps guard against black swan events at a lower cost.
【NEAR’s post-quantum upgrade puts $6.65 in focus; STRK up 110% for the week—watch the October 15 unlock; FIL catch-up rally targets $1.42】
Fear & Greed Index: 58 (October 12 reading). BTC is at $83,858, up 1.02% over 24 hours, and ETH is at $2,544, up 1.40%. The day's key drivers were the completion of outflows totaling $679 million from spot BTC ETFs last week and the liquidation of approximately $1.1 billion in leveraged long positions. After the selling pressure eased, prices moved back above the EMA20, and the market entered a low-volume recovery ahead of the U.S. CPI release on October 14. Recommended cryptocurrencies NEAR Current: $5.899 | 24h +10.65% | 7d +19.91% | Overall score 78/100 Outlook: Bullish, 3-day target $6.20–$6.65
[TIA sees increased volume against the trend toward 0.56; BTC retreats below 80,000, ETH falls below the EMA50]
Fear & Greed Index 54 (Oct 9 reading). BTC is at $81,888, down 1.83% over 24 hours; ETH is at $2,481, down 3.71% over 24 hours. The most critical driver for the day is that the September FOMC meeting minutes released on Oct 7 were hawkish. In addition, Fed Governor Waller said market pricing for at least one more rate hike in December has reached 85%. Combined with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5.31% and Brent crude at $105, the valuation side of risk assets and funding costs remain under pressure. Cryptocurrency recommendations TIA Current: $0.5013 | 24h +5.60% | 7d +16.99% | Composite score 75/100