Bitcareful

U.S. PPI rose 1.3% month over month in September, far above expectations of around 0.5%, as wholesale gasoline prices surged 20.3% for the month. With inflation this hot, why did the odds of a rate hike in October fall from 33% to 27%?

Why? The 0.8% rise in retail sales was largely driven by gas stations. The “control group,” which excludes gasoline and other items, was up just 0.1%, suggesting consumer spending wasn’t as strong. Meanwhile, concerns that AI-related borrowing could weigh on the economy sent money into U.S. Treasuries, pushing the 10-year yield down about 10 basis points.

Inflation hasn’t cooled; the market is simply becoming more worried about the economy. Falling yields are not a signal to use more leverage.

Good morning — 10/15 daily report
The Fear & Greed Index is at 52 today, down 11 points from yesterday’s 63, moving from Greed back to Neutral in a single day.

U.S. September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year last night, above expectations of 3.6% and the highest since May. Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, also higher than the expected 0.2%. The odds of an October rate hike briefly climbed to around 50%, but Daly, Goolsbee, and Bowman all said there was no rush to raise rates at the October 27–28 meeting. The odds fell back to about 33%, and the market’s focus shifted to December.

Stocks took a harder hit: the Nasdaq fell 1.88% yesterday, CoreWeave dropped more than 15%, and the KOSPI plunged as much as 7% this morning, extending its losing streak to seven trading days. Taiwan stocks also opened down 2.85%. Jin10 says the market is increasingly questioning whether the AI investment boom can continue.

In the Middle East, Houthi forces said they would continue attacking Saudi Aramco facilities over the next few days. Brent crude was around $103 this morning.

Rate-hike expectations, oil prices, and AI stocks are all being sold off, so it’s no surprise the index has returned to Neutral. For today, focus on risk and don’t rush to buy the dip.

10/14 Daily Report

Good morning. Today’s Fear & Greed Index is 63, up 7 points from yesterday’s neutral reading of 56, returning to greed.
Tensions in the Middle East have heated up again: Houthi forces struck an administrative building at Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran, sparking a fire. They also threatened further attacks on oil facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh. UK-related agencies said that around six ships were attacked in and near the Strait of Hormuz on the same day. Trump said the Houthis may be deliberately driving up oil prices ahead of the midterm elections, though that is his claim. WTI rose around 1% intraday to about $94.68.
On the Fed front, New York Fed President Williams said that if the economy performs as expected, another rate hike this year would be appropriate, but he currently sees no reason to continue raising rates in 2027.
Today’s main focus is the US September CPI release, due at around 20:30 Taipei time. Markets are watching to see whether it will change expectations that the Fed will “hold steady in October.”

10/13 Daily Report

Good morning. The Fear & Greed Index is at 56 today, retreating from yesterday’s 68, which was in greed territory, back to neutral—a drop of 12 points in one day.
The biggest story today is still the Middle East: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says a supertanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and at least 10 supertankers have left Fujairah. Brent crude hit $105 intraday, its highest level since 9/15. Iran says it is still reviewing the U.S. proposal and will respond through intermediaries.
Meanwhile, Fed voter Hammack struck a hawkish tone, saying rates need to be a little higher. She favors small, frequent rate hikes and has not ruled out a hike in October. The market’s current base case is to hold in October and hike in December. Wednesday’s U.S. September CPI report will be the key event this week.
South Korean stocks were also volatile today: the KOSPI opened down 3.27%, fell as much as 5% intraday, triggering a sidecar, while SK Hynix dropped more than 7%.
With oil prices, interest rates, and stocks all unsettled, it’s no surprise the index has retreated to neutral. Focus on risk for now, and don’t rush to chase the market before the CPI report comes out.

10/12 Daily Report
The story on a Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire” doesn’t add up today.
Trump said both sides had agreed. Zelensky also said he supported it, and that Ukrainian forces had received orders. But earlier, he said he knew nothing about the arrangement. Witkoff and Kushner postponed their trip to Moscow pending positions from Europe and Ukraine, while British media reported that the US had threatened to cut off weapons supplies to Ukraine.
In the Middle East, the Houthis claimed four waves of attacks on Saudi Arabia, targeting airports and energy facilities. US media reported that Saudi Arabia was running low on air-defense interceptor missiles. Regional sources said Saudi Arabia would not agree to a ceasefire with the Houthis until the Yemeni government recaptured lost territory.
Iran’s military said ships that switch off their navigation identification systems in the Strait of Hormuz would be considered hostile targets. Senior official Rezaei said the US had accepted some conditions for partially reopening the strait, but its other responses were insufficient. If war breaks out again, Iran will target regional cables and data centers.
Index: 68, Greed, up from Friday’s 58.
#RussiaUkraine #MiddleEast #StraitOfHormuz

October 9 Daily Brief

Trump set a timeline for Iran today, saying the U.S. and Iran are engaged in productive discussions and that the U.S. will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. WTI and Brent crude both plunged $2 on the news, though they were still up more than 2% on the day.

But there was another side to the same story. The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran, targeting 17 oil tankers. U.S. media reported that the military is preparing options for using force, which Trump has rejected multiple times, and that three aircraft carriers are about to be deployed to the Middle East. Iran’s president said that Iran gets attacked after every round of talks, but will not walk away from the negotiating table.

Tech stocks had a rough day. British media reported that OpenAI’s annualized revenue is $20 billion lower than previously reported, sending U.S. tech stocks down. Samsung also plans to cut smartphone production by 30% as rising memory prices squeeze profits.

At the Fed, Waller said further rate hikes are needed, but they don’t have to be consecutive. Musalem said rates may need to rise again over the next 6 to 9 months. The yield on UK 20-year government bonds also hit 6% for the first time since March 1998.

#MiddleEast #FederalReserve #OpenAI

10/7 Daily Report

Energy is worth watching today.

The IEA is expected to finalize a plan on Oct. 14–15 to release 100 million barrels from G7 oil reserves. Meanwhile, one organization says crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, but diesel remains in severe shortage. Trump was also asked whether he would suspend the federal gasoline tax, and said he was considering it. Crude is coming back; refined products are what’s in short supply, and countries’ actions are focused on that area.

Another story is the Bank of Japan. Sources say the central bank may signal that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target. On the same day, Kazuo Ueda also said the bank would continue raising its policy rate depending on the situation. Note that the former is based on sources, not an official statement.

On the Middle East, Qatar says negotiations and exchanges of information are continuing, while the U.S. denied Iranian state media reports that a U.S. military helicopter had crashed in the Red Sea. The channels remain open, but the two sides’ accounts of events on the battlefield don’t match.

#Energy #BankOfJapan #MiddleEastSituation

10/6 Daily Brief

There was a lot of activity around Saudi Arabia today.

The Mecca Defense Alliance decided to activate its collective defense mechanism, with Turkey and Pakistan set to deploy military forces to Saudi Arabia. On the same day, the Houthis warned airlines to avoid Saudi airspace, while Yemen’s government forces said they had recaptured the Red Sea port of Mokha, a city reported to have been under Houthi control as recently as mid-September.

On the negotiation front, Iran’s interior minister arrived in Doha for talks, though the original report didn’t say who the talks were with. Iran’s president made a sharp remark: every time they finish talks with the United States, they are attacked. Talks are taking place, but trust appears to be very low.

Meanwhile, there were two developments in the markets: the Nasdaq hit another all-time intraday high, and yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds continued to set new highs for the period. Stocks and interest rates are both hitting highs. Crude oil fell 2%, while Russia’s Finance Ministry said it would significantly increase its purchases of foreign currency and gold.

#MiddleEast #TreasuryYields #Nasdaq

10/5 daily report

Iran’s signals are consistent today: the Strait will not reopen first.

Iran’s speaker said that until conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened, and its response to the U.S. side’s proposal addresses only the issue of the strait. On the same day, the military announced it would increase the range of its missiles, and the oil minister, Paknejad, resigned without stating the reason. The negotiating stance is tough, and the military stance is also tough.

Another thread is the Houthis. The Houthis claim they attacked Saudi Aramco facilities and caused a fire, while Yemen’s government forces announced they have begun operations to recapture the remaining territory held by the Houthis. Iran also said it is willing to facilitate dialogue between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia—while taking a mediation posture, the fighting has not stopped.

In the oil market, OPEC+ decided to keep November production unchanged, and Saudi Arabia lowered its crude oil selling price to Asia.

In addition, Trump has formed a Super Intelligent Working Group, and Musk renamed SpaceXAI to SpaceXSI—so the wind is still blowing that AI will be called SI.

#US-Iran situation #Houthis #OPEC

$ETH
2638-2588 range area
Stop loss 2500
Take profit 2688-2748-2788
Because I’m not placing orders on OKX
But if you use my invitation code
I can give everyone a 35% commission rebate
Participate with a light position in short trades
Short in the 2748-2788 range
Stop loss 2828
Take profit 2698-2658

Because I’m not placing orders on Binance
But if you trust me and use my invitation code
I can give everyone a 35% commission rebate

$BTC
82666-83666 range multi
Stop loss 81000
Take profit 83777-84888-85888

Because I didn’t place the order on Binance
But if you trust me and use my invitation code
I can give everyone a 35% commission back

Enter a short position with low leverage
Short in the 85888-86888 range
Stop loss 87500
Take profit 84888-83888-82888

$ETH
Ethereum also surged and then pulled back. It reached a peak near $2,779, encountered resistance, and the low fell to around $2,648. It is currently consolidating near $2,675 and remains range-bound, fluctuating within $2,635–$2,800. There is resistance above and support below. Pullbacks have been unable to break through multiple times, while attempts to rally have been repeatedly met with resistance. The market direction has not yet clearly emerged. Momentum is slow. Over the weekend, it is expected to maintain relatively narrow-range fluctuations, and it may still take some time before things become clear.

$BTC
Bitcoin saw a surge followed by a pullback last night, with the high reaching around $87,249 and running into resistance. The previous high remains a heavy overhead pressure, preventing a breakout. It then slid to a low around $83,840, and is currently consolidating near $84,500. Since breaking out of the range box, the coin’s price has been fluctuating within the $82,500—$87,200 range, and the direction is still unclear. Typically over the weekend, it will mainly trade sideways.

$BTC Am I not telling the truth?

Tonight’s data brings major good news

10/2 daily report

Yesterday we said that there were concrete developments between the U.S. and Iran, but today it all immediately fell apart.

Rubio issued a clear “get out” message to Iran’s delegation, and negotiations have hit a stalemate. On the surface, Trump still says the Iran issue will be “over soon, no matter what way,” but this time he added one more line: after the midterm elections, the bombing campaign could be stepped up. U.S. media also confirmed that the U.S. has already deployed a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, along with up to 10,000 troops. When the negotiating table flipped, military action was instead escalated.

However, sources say that in private, Iran’s foreign minister actually softened—he is willing to allow inspectors to re-enter the nuclear facilities that were destroyed by the strikes, in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Publicly they’re turning hostile, but beneath the surface it seems talks are still ongoing. This kind of contrast has been seen several times in this round.

The markets are also far from calm. The U.S. dollar index surged to 102, the highest since April last year. The yield on the UK 30-year government bonds jumped straight to 6%, the first time since 1998. The pressure on long-term rates—this line—has already been writing for nearly two straight weeks without easing.

This time, Fed officials’ comments were even more divided. Cook directly pointed out that AI is the biggest inflation risk next year, and the pace of easing hasn’t slowed yet.

#U.S.-Iran situation #U.S. dollar index #Federal Reserve

October 1 Daily Report

Today, the U.S.-Iran situation along this line has finally made some concrete progress.

Trump said the war with Iran “will end very soon,” and Iran has also confirmed that it received the U.S. proposal response for a seven-day period, with formal discussions scheduled for Wednesday. Compared with the past few days of both sides talking past each other and denying one another, this time at least there is a clear date and specific documentation. However, that “very soon” phrase has been used a few times before—whether there is truly progress still depends on how things are discussed and what is said after Wednesday’s talks.

Economic data is also interesting. The U.S. core PCE came in below expectations, hitting a six-month low, with clear signals that inflation is cooling. Yet on the same day, Kashkari stepped out to say the Fed will raise rates one more time this year, and once again in 2027. The data says inflation is cooling, while officials say it’s still urgent—this kind of contradiction has been repeating itself lately.

In addition, today the FTC launched a comprehensive investigation into Anthropic and OpenAI—this is the first time a regulator has taken such major action against leading AI companies. Meanwhile, Micron’s quarterly earnings and revenue both exceeded expectations, and its outlook for next quarter also looks good. In the AI hardware space, performance remains steady.

#U.S.-Iran Situation #Federal Reserve #PCE

9/30 Report

The Fed’s comments today were divisive.

Williams said another rate hike might be possible within the year, but “no need to rush.” BAll said further adjustments may be needed. M u s a l l a m said current policy is actually still somewhat loose. Goolsbee, meanwhile, described himself as one of the more optimistic officials. Market interpretation has been relatively dovish: short-term yields have clearly fallen back, the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to 50%. But by contrast, 30-year U.S. Treasuries have surged to 5.6%, and the paths of short- and long-end yields have moved completely differently.

More striking, Iran’s currency has collapsed. The rial has fallen to more than 2.5 million per 1 U.S. dollar—an all-time low. The speaker of Iran’s parliament delivered tough remarks the same day: Iran can’t sell oil, and neither can anyone else; Iran doesn’t have security guarantees, and other people’s infrastructure shouldn’t expect safety either. This kind of collective-punishment-style threat has not been made in this round so far. However, British media says the mediators are working to restart negotiations, and the draft’s core themes are lifting sanctions and opening the strait. So while the rhetoric is harsh, the door hasn’t been fully closed yet.

In addition, Trump today signed a “binding” document with major AI companies and even renamed AI to SI. Details are not yet clear, but this kind of official move to regulate AI is uncommon.

#FederalReserve #Iran #AI