我是X先生

$BTC “Cutting a boat to seek a sword”—once, how should Bitcoin’s long positions be handled?
In the 2022 bear market, if counted from the highest point to the time Bitcoin bottomed and broke the bear-to-bull (bull/bear) conversion line, the weekly-level MSB took roughly 450 days (Fig. 1). After breaking 25211, during the period 25211—weekly OB, a horizontal box-like range was formed for about 22 days (Fig. 2). It then retested the area around 25211 twice to test overhead supply and wash out the market, followed by a breakout above the top of the range, starting a main uptrend that “never looks back.”
As for the current bear-to-bull conversion, it has only taken 350 days to complete the structure (Fig. 3), which is 100 days less than the previous cycle. The main players may be a bit impatient, but that also suggests the market’s consensus is currently fairly good: major institutions are “accumulating,” and at the very least this leaves room for imagination regarding the next leg up.
What might happen next? There is no price action that rises without pullbacks. If it goes up too much, it must come down—that’s inevitable. It’s only the depth of the pullback that’s unknown. If, going forward, capital continues to flow in strongly and overhead supply remains relatively small, it could form a range-bound consolidation between 75–98, or even 85–929. Of course, it could also form other consolidation patterns—like a bull flag. All of these are normal. Therefore, long-term longs shouldn’t be in a hurry: wait until a structure and pattern are clearly formed, then enter. One reason is to look for the lower point of the pullback; the other is to look for the breakout point. Those two long-term entry locations must be grasped.
Since there is no completely consistent price trajectory, the “cutting a boat to seek a sword” here is about copying the main players’ operational mindset.

(Of course, if the pullback breaks below 75, that would be even better—but will the main players really give an opportunity to pick up cheap chips? Who knows.)

#USDT.D From USDT.P: Assessing the likelihood that the bear market is over
Figure 1: Weekly chart. Two swing highs formed near the previous high, creating a bearish divergence. Structurally, it also shows a weekly-level MSB. This can be interpreted as: the bear market has effectively ended! Of course, the end of the bear market does not mean Bitcoin won’t make new lows, but it is clear that from the current 82 level—or any new high this week (if there is one)—a further drop would be a correction, not a brand-new downturn. The difference lies in the depth of the correction.
Spot traders: your last opportunity to enter spot is about to come. Once the correction ends, BTC will rise quickly to around 90 and will not drop back below 82 again. You can refer to the earlier accumulation post: Bitcoin is currently in the “last sell-off” phase of the accumulation cycle, with panic selling already beginning to be absorbed.
Figure 2: Daily chart. A bullish divergence forms at the bottom. Break above the blue line confirms the formation of the bottom. Traders on the right side can wait for a retest and then short BTC.

$BTC 1 H-level Bollinger Bands are contracting. I think it’s more likely to go up first to take liquidity, then fall. Let’s take a gamble.

I didn't dare... hahaha

Solid insights—smash that like button!!
First, a question: Since both were hit by the same black swan, why does SOL seem stronger than ETH?
If you've thought about it, congratulations—you've learned to think critically.
There are two answers: first, the black swan affects different coins differently; second, market structure.
For the first point, you can check out analyses by other experts.
Let me focus on the second point: Comparing charts 1 and 2, you can see that ETH's sharp rally had no hesitation. As a result, there hasn't been much position turnover in the current price range, leaving it as a vacuum zone with little liquidity. The price rises quickly when pushed up, but likewise, there's no strong support when it pulls back to this area. So ETH won't be easy to trade on a rebound for a while, because the structure isn't there. SOL's structure, however, is much clearer. So far, it's only swept the liquidity below the previous daily low. There are a lot of stop-loss orders from people who went long earlier, and when the price reaches this area, it's easy to trigger a cascade of liquidations. That's why the wick can go so deep and liquidate so many positions. After shorts take profit and close, there may be a rebound that looks “strong,” but that doesn't mean spot buyers are stepping in. Spot buying is the key factor in determining how far the price can go.
Now for my forecast of what happens next: For ETH, as shown by the black line, I hope it gets a daily-timeframe rebound. If it reaches the order block above, look for a break of structure on a lower timeframe, or for spot distribution, then look for a short entry. The downside target is near the EQ at 1982 in the previous range. For SOL, it could be 103 or 109—we'll only know when it gets there. The key is still to watch Bitcoin.
This is just a rough overall outlook, not a signal to trade as soon as those levels are reached.

$SOL The price isn't important; what matters is that SOL's old market makers are using almost exactly the same playbook.

$BTC is about to rebound and target liquidity around 80.

$BNB gives you the frustrating feeling of a stock that rises in fits and starts, falls in a sluggish, sticky way, feels bloated and indecisive, and never drops decisively. It’s not a pleasant one to hold.

$ETH 2222 Liquidity has been wiped out; for now, it's still an oversold rebound
$SOL as well; currently in an oversold rebound

Let's talk about U.S. stocks. The earnings impact hit right away, just like with Google, but I don't dare go long directly here. I did buy spot at a pretty good level, though. $INTC

$BTC There's nothing you can do about a black swan event. I hesitated and didn't short, so I missed a move—but you can't really call it missing out, and I don't regret it.
For now, there's definitely no going long. One reason is the structure, and the other is sentiment. Going long would be like trying to catch a falling knife. We'll see how things look around 749. A V-shaped reversal is impossible; it'll definitely need to consolidate for a while.
$BNB It's almost there, but it hasn't been swept yet. For now, I'll hold and see how it goes.

$BTC is fucking selling again—should I short or not? This choppy market is driving me crazy.

$PEPE is incomprehensible; it makes no sense at all.

$BTC and usdt to the position before there is a chance to short

$BNB Start!

$XAG Silver is total garbage now. Let's sell high and buy low within the range below.

$BTC IDM will definitely be hit. Liquidity below is around 788. If the rebound is rejected here, we can wait for a lower-timeframe MSB or CVD divergence and take a short-term long on the bounce.

$BTC may not bottom out until the Fed meeting in December. Treat the forecast chart as a guide for future short-term trading; when it reaches the target level, watch closely before acting.

$BTC spot has finally started selling, but large-scale distribution has not yet been confirmed.

$BTC Actually, this looks more like a rebound, but since I have a meeting later tonight, I'll hold off for now, set a short order, and go to sleep.