土豆谈币
公众号：《冯宝宝在烤红薯》,在币圈近十年从业者，三年职业交易员经验。历经两轮牛熊，自有投研团队，顶级一二级资源，擅长各种现货均线理论分析操作，以及短线合约策略入场布局！
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Come to the Binance chat collection
Seize future layout opportunities
Real-time sharing of swing and long-term strategies!
#BNB走势
Seize future layout opportunities
Real-time sharing of swing and long-term strategies!
#BNB走势
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$BEAT has not been very optimistic for a long time, but in the short term, it is clear that it is not finished yet.
After this round of adjustments, it feels like we can buy a position on dips, the big players have not sold yet, and it looks like they could move at any time just like pippin! It is expected to buy more around 1.1! #加密市场观察
After this round of adjustments, it feels like we can buy a position on dips, the big players have not sold yet, and it looks like they could move at any time just like pippin! It is expected to buy more around 1.1! #加密市场观察
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Harvesting? Bitcoin and Ethereum face liquidations on both sides, direction to be determined tonight! A fantastic layout window for altcoins! Will ZEC, FARTCOIN, and TON return to $8?
A once-in-a-millennium opportunity to leverage small bets? This year's market is lackluster, with a 1:1 profit-loss ratio being considered decent, but recently we have seen the standard harvesting script of 'small profits while the big losses loom'. The U.S. stock market plummeted, the cryptocurrency market stagnated, and trading volume has been halved compared to March. Meanwhile, the market still draws charts daily, experiencing liquidations on both sides. The quieter it is, the more likely it is to be the calm before the storm; true reversals often hide within this stagnant water.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 87,150 people were liquidated across the network, with a total liquidation amount of $204 million, including $99.4939 million in long positions and $105 million in short positions.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 87,150 people were liquidated across the network, with a total liquidation amount of $204 million, including $99.4939 million in long positions and $105 million in short positions.
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It's okay to be bullish, but if you make money and don't take it, getting trapped at the top of the market is your own problem — it shows you didn't understand this wave of the market at all. The little money you made in between was just luck; what you couldn't grasp is ultimately ephemeral. My strategy is very simple: every time there's a rebound to an important resistance level, I decisively short.
The three arrows below are places I reminded you about in advance: this is an excellent shorting point. If it goes up, don't be reluctant; only by daring to short can you pocket the profits. btc
The three arrows below are places I reminded you about in advance: this is an excellent shorting point. If it goes up, don't be reluctant; only by daring to short can you pocket the profits. btc
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$FARTCOIN
You can follow fartcoin and consider going long when the price drops to the range of 0.38-0.36, with a stop loss set at 0.342; or wait for a breakthrough at 0.42 and confirm entry on the right side, with an upper target of 0.55.
You can follow fartcoin and consider going long when the price drops to the range of 0.38-0.36, with a stop loss set at 0.342; or wait for a breakthrough at 0.42 and confirm entry on the right side, with an upper target of 0.55.
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Market 'Discount Season', what have the whales accumulated?
In the past month, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $80,000 and $90,000, while altcoins have generally retraced by 15%-40%, which has precisely become an opportunity for whales to quietly accumulate. On-chain data shows that whales are discreetly building positions across multiple sectors, with some cryptocurrencies reaching their highest accumulation levels since 2025:
1. Payment/Cross-border settlement: XRP is the most favored
Whales have net increased their holdings by over 1.1 billion XRP in the past 30 days, worth about $2.4 billion. The XRP balance on exchanges has dropped to a new low since 2023.
2. Established public chains: ADA is being accumulated against the trend
Starting in late November, two large whale groups have been rotating their positions, cumulatively buying about 280 million ADA. If the price breaks through $0.43, it is expected to look towards $0.52.
1. Payment/Cross-border settlement: XRP is the most favored
Whales have net increased their holdings by over 1.1 billion XRP in the past 30 days, worth about $2.4 billion. The XRP balance on exchanges has dropped to a new low since 2023.
2. Established public chains: ADA is being accumulated against the trend
Starting in late November, two large whale groups have been rotating their positions, cumulatively buying about 280 million ADA. If the price breaks through $0.43, it is expected to look towards $0.52.
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Nearly 130,000 people liquidated! After Bitcoin's deep V rebound, is it targeting 102000? Is Ethereum's surge even stronger? Under the double kill of longs and shorts, what are the operational strategies for altcoins!
After the liquidity crisis in November and the 'cycle law curse', the crypto market in December has temporarily caught a breath. Under the current market conditions, Ethereum and various altcoins are closely tied to Bitcoin's movements, fluctuating almost in sync, with the market still primarily following Bitcoin's lead.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 126,310 people have been liquidated across the entire network, with a total liquidation amount of $439 million, long liquidations amounting to $295 million, and short liquidations amounting to $145 million.
BTC
Bitcoin stabilized after a pullback from 94185 to 87976, oscillating sideways over the weekend and briefly dipping to 87688 on Sunday night before quickly rebounding. The current rebound needs to focus on the key resistance at 94000; if it cannot break through, it remains a rebound rather than a reversal. Once broken, subsequent short opportunities can be monitored around 102000.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 126,310 people have been liquidated across the entire network, with a total liquidation amount of $439 million, long liquidations amounting to $295 million, and short liquidations amounting to $145 million.
BTC
Bitcoin stabilized after a pullback from 94185 to 87976, oscillating sideways over the weekend and briefly dipping to 87688 on Sunday night before quickly rebounding. The current rebound needs to focus on the key resistance at 94000; if it cannot break through, it remains a rebound rather than a reversal. Once broken, subsequent short opportunities can be monitored around 102000.
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I never sang for others to take over my $BTC; instead, I have my own logic.
In my own cyclical framework, Bitcoin's current major market movement has actually completed its first wave. The core narrative of this first wave is quite simple: value storage / value transfer — the story of digital gold has fully penetrated global consensus.
So how will it proceed next? It needs to be analyzed from a macro narrative perspective.
For the second wave's general direction, I am more inclined towards: value creation / application scenarios landing.
The BTC ecosystem is truly starting to have usable elements, not just lying around like gold.
L2, protocol layer applications, lightning network expansion, asset issuance, on-chain yields... these narratives will be the focus of the next stage.
However, this narrative cannot be completed in half a year or a year.
I believe the second wave will take at least 5 years, and it’s not unusual for it to go on for 10 years.
A mature ecosystem is never built on slogans; it is built over time.
But what will happen before the second wave starts?
There will definitely be a very realistic and rational return period for the first wave — that is, a medium to large correction.
My judgment for this cycle is:
This period will likely undergo a decline/oscillation lasting over 6 months.
It’s not destruction; it’s cooling down. It’s about washing away the overly optimistic expectations and bringing the market back to a solid construction phase.
The final third wave is the ultimate narrative of Bitcoin:
A global settlement network.
When it truly replaces stablecoins in settlement roles, substitutes gold, replaces SWIFT... that will be the day when Bitcoin becomes the unified valuation unit globally.
And this won't happen in the first half of our era; it is likely to occur in the latter half of this century.
The Dow Jones' movements over the past 130 years have actually been pushed up by three major narratives: industrialization, technologization, and the internet and AI. Now these main lines have basically run their course, and the major stories of the US are nearing their end.
The main narrative of the next century will likely not occur in the traditional world but will shift to the blockchain. Especially with Bitcoin, it seems more like the underlying layer of future value systems — a story that the US has been telling for over a hundred years, whereas Bitcoin has just begun its prologue.
The real story may still just be the prologue.
In my own cyclical framework, Bitcoin's current major market movement has actually completed its first wave. The core narrative of this first wave is quite simple: value storage / value transfer — the story of digital gold has fully penetrated global consensus.
So how will it proceed next? It needs to be analyzed from a macro narrative perspective.
For the second wave's general direction, I am more inclined towards: value creation / application scenarios landing.
The BTC ecosystem is truly starting to have usable elements, not just lying around like gold.
L2, protocol layer applications, lightning network expansion, asset issuance, on-chain yields... these narratives will be the focus of the next stage.
However, this narrative cannot be completed in half a year or a year.
I believe the second wave will take at least 5 years, and it’s not unusual for it to go on for 10 years.
A mature ecosystem is never built on slogans; it is built over time.
But what will happen before the second wave starts?
There will definitely be a very realistic and rational return period for the first wave — that is, a medium to large correction.
My judgment for this cycle is:
This period will likely undergo a decline/oscillation lasting over 6 months.
It’s not destruction; it’s cooling down. It’s about washing away the overly optimistic expectations and bringing the market back to a solid construction phase.
The final third wave is the ultimate narrative of Bitcoin:
A global settlement network.
When it truly replaces stablecoins in settlement roles, substitutes gold, replaces SWIFT... that will be the day when Bitcoin becomes the unified valuation unit globally.
And this won't happen in the first half of our era; it is likely to occur in the latter half of this century.
The Dow Jones' movements over the past 130 years have actually been pushed up by three major narratives: industrialization, technologization, and the internet and AI. Now these main lines have basically run their course, and the major stories of the US are nearing their end.
The main narrative of the next century will likely not occur in the traditional world but will shift to the blockchain. Especially with Bitcoin, it seems more like the underlying layer of future value systems — a story that the US has been telling for over a hundred years, whereas Bitcoin has just begun its prologue.
The real story may still just be the prologue.
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For Ethereum, it is currently still above 3000, with a short-term pullback. The price is still above the large bullish candlestick, and the overall support strength has not been broken, and the key defense line has also not been broken. Support is still effective.
Currently, it is still a rebound during a decline, and no reversal trend has been seen. Not taking action is the best action. #ETH走势分析
Currently, it is still a rebound during a decline, and no reversal trend has been seen. Not taking action is the best action. #ETH走势分析
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Bitcoin Flash Crash to 88000, Turning Point Signal? Ethereum's Surge to 3600? After the Volatility of HYPE, LUNA, and LUNC, Has the Altcoin Bear Market Begun?
Bitcoin has dropped directly to 88000 without any warning, while Ethereum remains above 3000. This may be due to rumored sales by Z, or it could just be back-and-forth contract harvesting. Regardless, the spot market remains calm, so be ready to catch the dip at any time!
In the past 24 hours, a total of 130,892 people across the network have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $413 million, including $341 million in long liquidations and $71.1985 million in short liquidations.
Weekend brief update:
From the daily perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum have entered a clear rebound phase since hitting their recent lows. Although there have been multiple pullbacks during this period, none have broken key support levels, and the bottom structure continues to rise, showing a step-like upward trend. Currently, the price has reached a strong resistance area near previous highs. The charts indicate that it is currently in a normal correction process, and overall it is still operating within an upward channel, with no signs of a breakout. Key operational points:
In the past 24 hours, a total of 130,892 people across the network have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $413 million, including $341 million in long liquidations and $71.1985 million in short liquidations.
Weekend brief update:
From the daily perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum have entered a clear rebound phase since hitting their recent lows. Although there have been multiple pullbacks during this period, none have broken key support levels, and the bottom structure continues to rise, showing a step-like upward trend. Currently, the price has reached a strong resistance area near previous highs. The charts indicate that it is currently in a normal correction process, and overall it is still operating within an upward channel, with no signs of a breakout. Key operational points:
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I believe that the next bull market must focus on Ethereum.
In the current bear market, ETH could potentially drop to around 1000 dollars, which would be a very ideal bottom area. It has performed mediocrely in this bull market, partly because the previous round rose too sharply, overextending expectations, which has also led to a general lack of confidence in it in the market now — but this collective pessimism often precedes the next big surge.
If the bear market can really see ETH at 1000 dollars, then the likelihood of the next bull market reaching 10,000 dollars is very high, which at least represents a tenfold increase. Of course, investment should not only consider the bull and bear markets but also time. No one stipulates that ETH must rise to 10,000; it hasn't even stabilized at 5200 dollars. There's no need to hold out for the next bull market; buying at relatively low points and selling in batches at high points to achieve easy profits is the key.
From a long-term perspective, ETH's future target may be between 17,000 and 19,000 dollars, but this is likely not a matter for this round of the bull market. I tend to gradually reduce my position during this cycle at high points, waiting for a drop to reposition for the next cycle.
In the current bear market, ETH could potentially drop to around 1000 dollars, which would be a very ideal bottom area. It has performed mediocrely in this bull market, partly because the previous round rose too sharply, overextending expectations, which has also led to a general lack of confidence in it in the market now — but this collective pessimism often precedes the next big surge.
If the bear market can really see ETH at 1000 dollars, then the likelihood of the next bull market reaching 10,000 dollars is very high, which at least represents a tenfold increase. Of course, investment should not only consider the bull and bear markets but also time. No one stipulates that ETH must rise to 10,000; it hasn't even stabilized at 5200 dollars. There's no need to hold out for the next bull market; buying at relatively low points and selling in batches at high points to achieve easy profits is the key.
From a long-term perspective, ETH's future target may be between 17,000 and 19,000 dollars, but this is likely not a matter for this round of the bull market. I tend to gradually reduce my position during this cycle at high points, waiting for a drop to reposition for the next cycle.
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Woke up early and took a look, it fell even more than before sleeping, of course, the first to act was the pancake, I can only say, it's quite a sigh.
1. $BTC inexplicably dropped from 93000 to below 90000 to around 89000 since yesterday, I heard the market price crashed directly, I can't quite understand all of this;
2. $ETH is still quite strong, now it's above 3000, let's see, after all, many people are saying that the BE trends are all different;
3. $SOL still has quite a lot of wealth creation effects on-chain, let's see if it can bring out the momentum from last year in the last month;
4. pendle_fi released the 2025 report: Average TVL in 2025 reached 5.8 billion USD, total transaction volume 47.8 billion USD; however, the price of $PENDLE is quickly returning to this year's low point;
1. $BTC inexplicably dropped from 93000 to below 90000 to around 89000 since yesterday, I heard the market price crashed directly, I can't quite understand all of this;
2. $ETH is still quite strong, now it's above 3000, let's see, after all, many people are saying that the BE trends are all different;
3. $SOL still has quite a lot of wealth creation effects on-chain, let's see if it can bring out the momentum from last year in the last month;
4. pendle_fi released the 2025 report: Average TVL in 2025 reached 5.8 billion USD, total transaction volume 47.8 billion USD; however, the price of $PENDLE is quickly returning to this year's low point;
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Next week bottoming out? Where can Bitcoin and Ethereum rebound to? Why is there no altcoin season in this bull market? Opportunities for ZEC, AVAX, SAPIEN, XRP, and TAO!
The short-term adjustment risk mentioned yesterday has materialized in the market. Now that the price has pulled back, it is precisely an opportunity to look for low-level setups. Institutions and whales are continuously accumulating at this position. As spot investors, we must pay attention to this signal and not panic and exit when smart money enters.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 94,285 people across the network have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $268 million, including $179 million for long positions and $88.83 million for short positions.
BTC
Last night, Bitcoin rebounded to around 94,000 but faced resistance and fell back. This level has created short-term pressure. The key to the current trend lies in the effectiveness of the 90,000 support level. If the price can stabilize above 90,000 on a four-hour basis, the current bullish structure will continue; once this support level is broken, attention should be focused on the support area around 86,000.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 94,285 people across the network have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $268 million, including $179 million for long positions and $88.83 million for short positions.
BTC
Last night, Bitcoin rebounded to around 94,000 but faced resistance and fell back. This level has created short-term pressure. The key to the current trend lies in the effectiveness of the 90,000 support level. If the price can stabilize above 90,000 on a four-hour basis, the current bullish structure will continue; once this support level is broken, attention should be focused on the support area around 86,000.
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I watched some things before bed and felt the need to reset. When I wake up, everything takes off. Could it be that the things I personally look down upon are actually good things?
1. $BTC has been fluctuating all the way and after a slight touch of 94000, it started to pull back. After dipping near 90800 in the early morning, it has currently returned to 92000. It’s Friday again, is something going to happen?
2. $ETH seems to be stronger than Bitcoin. Yesterday, Bitcoin started to pull back while Ethereum continued to maintain a high position for a while, but eventually couldn't hold on and followed suit. Keep a close eye on it;
3. $SOL is starting to show more and more signs of 'wealth effect' on-chain. Although it is relatively localized and the market capitalization is low, everything is developing in a positive direction;
4. Lighter_xyz will launch spot trading this week, with ETH as the first supported asset; the rhythm is getting closer to TGE.
1. $BTC has been fluctuating all the way and after a slight touch of 94000, it started to pull back. After dipping near 90800 in the early morning, it has currently returned to 92000. It’s Friday again, is something going to happen?
2. $ETH seems to be stronger than Bitcoin. Yesterday, Bitcoin started to pull back while Ethereum continued to maintain a high position for a while, but eventually couldn't hold on and followed suit. Keep a close eye on it;
3. $SOL is starting to show more and more signs of 'wealth effect' on-chain. Although it is relatively localized and the market capitalization is low, everything is developing in a positive direction;
4. Lighter_xyz will launch spot trading this week, with ETH as the first supported asset; the rhythm is getting closer to TGE.
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$Big Yellow can ambush for a while
This is the meme that the first sister likes to send, currently valued at around 580,000, and can also ambush for a while. Now the first sister has been appointed as the new chief CEO. Once this Big Yellow meme is sent again, it may take off, so ambush for a wave of expectations.
This is the meme that the first sister likes to send, currently valued at around 580,000, and can also ambush for a while. Now the first sister has been appointed as the new chief CEO. Once this Big Yellow meme is sent again, it may take off, so ambush for a wave of expectations.
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Short squeeze bull market? Ethereum rises more than Bitcoin? Where to go long? BSC Meme welcomes a new windfall! BCH, SOL, ASTER, HYPE plummet?
I feel that the recent circle is very uninteresting, the market keeps going in circles. Every rise fills retail investors with anticipation, but the big players always seem to dump when it looks like a bull market is starting. This kind of play has caused most people, including myself, to develop a conditioned reflex of 'thinking of running when it rises to a certain extent'. This has indeed been the case in the past few months; if you don’t run, you’ll get stuck.
So how should we respond?
I think that to grasp the fluctuations of rising and falling, leveraging on the basis of holding spot assets is necessary. Whether entering or exiting, everything should be done under a controllable position, and heavy positions need to have a stop-loss location.
So how should we respond?
I think that to grasp the fluctuations of rising and falling, leveraging on the basis of holding spot assets is necessary. Whether entering or exiting, everything should be done under a controllable position, and heavy positions need to have a stop-loss location.
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$BTC This wave directly reversed, so it's impossible to just raise the price and immediately crash it. In the short term, the market is still relatively safe. If it crashes back down, then I really have no words.
If it holds at 88000, it should be stable. 80600 is the short-term bottom for this market phase, and such key bottoms generally won't break on the first touch. This position, barring any accidents, can still be played for another two to three months.
Currently, the 4-hour structure has already impacted the resistance zone once, and if it comes back for a second time, we need to watch 934000. There are roughly two ways this could go:
One is a clean double bottom, breaking through the neckline directly, and then the rhythm will follow smoothly, potentially reaching around 98000, and we will see later whether to short based on the market at that time. However, I think the resistance at 100000 will not be easily broken.
The other is a converging triangle, applying pressure around 93400, but as long as it doesn't break below 88000, the overall structure still leans bullish.
However, in the short term, I also do not recommend going long. Don't go long near the resistance level; waiting to short around 98000 will have a better cost-performance ratio.
If it holds at 88000, it should be stable. 80600 is the short-term bottom for this market phase, and such key bottoms generally won't break on the first touch. This position, barring any accidents, can still be played for another two to three months.
Currently, the 4-hour structure has already impacted the resistance zone once, and if it comes back for a second time, we need to watch 934000. There are roughly two ways this could go:
One is a clean double bottom, breaking through the neckline directly, and then the rhythm will follow smoothly, potentially reaching around 98000, and we will see later whether to short based on the market at that time. However, I think the resistance at 100000 will not be easily broken.
The other is a converging triangle, applying pressure around 93400, but as long as it doesn't break below 88000, the overall structure still leans bullish.
However, in the short term, I also do not recommend going long. Don't go long near the resistance level; waiting to short around 98000 will have a better cost-performance ratio.
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My prediction for the market in 2026:
Given the multiple top warnings on the Bitcoin daily chart, the collapse on the weekly chart, and the weak upward momentum on the monthly chart, 2026 is likely to see a decline, with 80,000 being the short-term bottom.
Altcoin Season: It is unlikely that an altcoin season will occur unless ETH goes above 5000, as there are many large sell orders hanging around. The hope for an altcoin market surge is between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026. Those varieties that have not been pulled up may remain silent in this bull market, but those that are operated by market makers will definitely see a wave of market activity, so have confidence. #加密市场回调
Given the multiple top warnings on the Bitcoin daily chart, the collapse on the weekly chart, and the weak upward momentum on the monthly chart, 2026 is likely to see a decline, with 80,000 being the short-term bottom.
Altcoin Season: It is unlikely that an altcoin season will occur unless ETH goes above 5000, as there are many large sell orders hanging around. The hope for an altcoin market surge is between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026. Those varieties that have not been pulled up may remain silent in this bull market, but those that are operated by market makers will definitely see a wave of market activity, so have confidence. #加密市场回调
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After a sharp drop, a quick rebound! Institutions are buying the dip, Dogecoin (DOGE) shows double bottom signals, can the rebound hold key resistance?
The overall market is weak, compounded by risk assets being under pressure, Dogecoin (DOGE) first faced a wave of intense selling: the price fell from $0.1387 all the way down, not only breaking through the key support level of $0.1350, but also hitting an intraday low of $0.1322. Notably, during the decline, the trading volume surged to 854 million coins, which is 180% higher than the daily average, a typical 'volume decline' pattern, exposing short-term structural weaknesses.
However, the bears did not enjoy their success for long; in the late trading phase, buyers began to concentrate, and Dogecoin quickly rebounded from its low, temporarily rising to $0.1362, re-testing the previously lost support level of $0.1350, and faint signs of a 'double bottom' pattern began to emerge.
However, the bears did not enjoy their success for long; in the late trading phase, buyers began to concentrate, and Dogecoin quickly rebounded from its low, temporarily rising to $0.1362, re-testing the previously lost support level of $0.1350, and faint signs of a 'double bottom' pattern began to emerge.
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Foreigners are really obsessed with collecting cards! The market value of the Pokémon-themed coin $KABUTO on the SOL chain has directly broken 10 million dollars. This story starts with a foreigner named KabutoKing_ who buys $KABUTO cards every day, making this card scarce and pushing the price to new highs.
Now foreigners play Pokémon cards with the same fervor as we do with Shiba Inu coins, and a single card can easily increase in value by hundreds of times. Even the imitation card $Snorlax has surged to a market value of 300,000. Friends who want to follow the trend are advised to be cautious and pay attention to risk management.
Now foreigners play Pokémon cards with the same fervor as we do with Shiba Inu coins, and a single card can easily increase in value by hundreds of times. Even the imitation card $Snorlax has surged to a market value of 300,000. Friends who want to follow the trend are advised to be cautious and pay attention to risk management.
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