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回首向来萧瑟处，也无风雨也无晴
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In 2023, a guy posted on bitcointalk
predicting that the peak in 2025 would occur on 2025-10-6. I scoffed at it at the time..
By this time this year, it is very likely that the peak of BTC will be 124,000 on 2025-10-6.
His patterns are very simple,
The low of the cycle to the high is 1064 days.
The high of the cycle to the low requires 364 days.
I backtested the data from CoinGecko, and it was quite accurate (although I don't know the principle behind it).
People want to believe otherwise but the simulation will repeat itself.
1. ATL 2015 (2015-01-14) to ATH 2017 (2017-12-16)
Actual days: 1067 days, the post claims: 1064 days
Difference: 3 days ✓
2. ATH 2017 (2017-12-16) to ATL 2018 (2018-12-15)
Actual days: 364 days, the post claims: 364 days
Difference: 0 days ✓
3. ATL 2018 (2018-12-15) to ATH 2021 (2021-11-09)
Actual days: 1060 days, the post claims: 1064 days
Difference: 4 days ✓
4. ATH 2021 (2021-11-09) to ATL 2022 (2022-11-10)
Actual days: 366 days, the post claims: 364 days
Difference: 2 days ✓
5. ATL 2022 (2022-11-10) to ATH 2025 (2025-10-07)
Actual days: 1062 days, the post claims: 1064 days
Difference: 2 days ✓
Based on this simple pattern,
The lowest point in 2026 should be on 2026-10-06 (364 days after the peak).
The highest point in 2029 should be on 2029-09-04 (1064 days after the low).
Leave this post to be verified.
$BTC
predicting that the peak in 2025 would occur on 2025-10-6. I scoffed at it at the time..
By this time this year, it is very likely that the peak of BTC will be 124,000 on 2025-10-6.
His patterns are very simple,
The low of the cycle to the high is 1064 days.
The high of the cycle to the low requires 364 days.
I backtested the data from CoinGecko, and it was quite accurate (although I don't know the principle behind it).
People want to believe otherwise but the simulation will repeat itself.
1. ATL 2015 (2015-01-14) to ATH 2017 (2017-12-16)
Actual days: 1067 days, the post claims: 1064 days
Difference: 3 days ✓
2. ATH 2017 (2017-12-16) to ATL 2018 (2018-12-15)
Actual days: 364 days, the post claims: 364 days
Difference: 0 days ✓
3. ATL 2018 (2018-12-15) to ATH 2021 (2021-11-09)
Actual days: 1060 days, the post claims: 1064 days
Difference: 4 days ✓
4. ATH 2021 (2021-11-09) to ATL 2022 (2022-11-10)
Actual days: 366 days, the post claims: 364 days
Difference: 2 days ✓
5. ATL 2022 (2022-11-10) to ATH 2025 (2025-10-07)
Actual days: 1062 days, the post claims: 1064 days
Difference: 2 days ✓
Based on this simple pattern,
The lowest point in 2026 should be on 2026-10-06 (364 days after the peak).
The highest point in 2029 should be on 2029-09-04 (1064 days after the low).
Leave this post to be verified.
$BTC
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I can go up to 110u to 42000u
Awesome, right? The principal is less than 600u, cumulative profit is 40wu+
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
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了解滴滴和美团的发展历程你就看懂一切了
$ASTER 's daily activity is 241 people, $HYPE is 57.5K people.
The data has already said so much, yet some still fantasize that ASTER can surpass HYPE?
Don't start to float just because of the four words 'Binance investment'.
Binance has invested in many projects, and the ones that eventually went to zero are not just one or two. The pattern of on-chain DEX has basically been established—HYPE is the absolute leader, and currently, there is no other project that shows any inclination to replace it, at least there is no sign of that now.
Why?
Because HYPE caters to native on-chain demand and is a project that truly creates ecological stickiness.
ASTER, in essence, is just a BSC replica + a sh*tcoin incubator V2, a typical strategy where Binance makes a substitute wherever they see something taking off.
The logic is simple:
SOL sh*tcoin became popular → Binance creates a BSC sh*tcoin.
HYPE became popular → Binance creates ASTER.
This is not innovation; this is a 'I also want a piece of the pie' business behavior.
Binance's strength has always been in the exchange system, not in the native on-chain ecology.
In the entire Binance ecosystem, the only project that can truly hold long-term value, penetrate cycles, and continuously create value is $BNB .
Does ASTER want to become the second BNB? Don't joke around.
From positioning to ecological logic, and to user quality, they are not even on the same dimension.
However, ASTER is very likely to become the second $CAKE:
Initial hype reaches its peak
Sh*tcoins drive a wave of prosperity
Liquidity starts to flow out
User activity declines
Eventually becomes an 'it's still alive, but no one mentions it anymore' old project
Summary: HYPE's position is very stable, ASTER is not a threat, just a filler.
The only one truly worth holding long-term in the Binance ecosystem is $BNB.
The rest... once the cycle is over, retail investors all understand.
#加密市场回调 #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐
The data has already said so much, yet some still fantasize that ASTER can surpass HYPE?
Don't start to float just because of the four words 'Binance investment'.
Binance has invested in many projects, and the ones that eventually went to zero are not just one or two. The pattern of on-chain DEX has basically been established—HYPE is the absolute leader, and currently, there is no other project that shows any inclination to replace it, at least there is no sign of that now.
Why?
Because HYPE caters to native on-chain demand and is a project that truly creates ecological stickiness.
ASTER, in essence, is just a BSC replica + a sh*tcoin incubator V2, a typical strategy where Binance makes a substitute wherever they see something taking off.
The logic is simple:
SOL sh*tcoin became popular → Binance creates a BSC sh*tcoin.
HYPE became popular → Binance creates ASTER.
This is not innovation; this is a 'I also want a piece of the pie' business behavior.
Binance's strength has always been in the exchange system, not in the native on-chain ecology.
In the entire Binance ecosystem, the only project that can truly hold long-term value, penetrate cycles, and continuously create value is $BNB .
Does ASTER want to become the second BNB? Don't joke around.
From positioning to ecological logic, and to user quality, they are not even on the same dimension.
However, ASTER is very likely to become the second $CAKE:
Initial hype reaches its peak
Sh*tcoins drive a wave of prosperity
Liquidity starts to flow out
User activity declines
Eventually becomes an 'it's still alive, but no one mentions it anymore' old project
Summary: HYPE's position is very stable, ASTER is not a threat, just a filler.
The only one truly worth holding long-term in the Binance ecosystem is $BNB.
The rest... once the cycle is over, retail investors all understand.
#加密市场回调 #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐
See original
Your decision is very correct👍
$BNB I have now sold all my BNB, feeling that the market will suddenly experience a big drop 📉, hope I'm wrong. In September 2021, the ten ministries also issued an announcement just like today, and then it hit a new high before dropping for more than two years.
{spot}(BNBUSDT)
{spot}(BNBUSDT)
See original
All Shadow Number Transactions
ASTER's tactics, I've seen them ten years ago
$ASTER
Brothers, I've been keeping an eye on this coin for two days, let me give you a heads-up: the dealer is clearly 'drawing an ECG' - secretly accumulating in the funding absorption area and crashing the price in the suppression area, a typical 'grinding retail investors'. There's no need to elaborate on the on-chain matters, the control degree is very high, and the ups and downs depend on the dealer's mood.
Intraday Trading Inquiry (Intraday Trend) 👇
Dealer Inquiry - Official Account: BTC Whale Tracking Assistant
Signal Interpretation
The market is very chaotic at this stage, there are divergences in price between dealers, whales, and other large funds, and situations like double killings for both long and short positions may occur. In such cases, it's essential to avoid them, as both long and short positions are unsuitable.
Brothers, I've been keeping an eye on this coin for two days, let me give you a heads-up: the dealer is clearly 'drawing an ECG' - secretly accumulating in the funding absorption area and crashing the price in the suppression area, a typical 'grinding retail investors'. There's no need to elaborate on the on-chain matters, the control degree is very high, and the ups and downs depend on the dealer's mood.
Intraday Trading Inquiry (Intraday Trend) 👇
Dealer Inquiry - Official Account: BTC Whale Tracking Assistant
Signal Interpretation
The market is very chaotic at this stage, there are divergences in price between dealers, whales, and other large funds, and situations like double killings for both long and short positions may occur. In such cases, it's essential to avoid them, as both long and short positions are unsuitable.
See original
Sew High Can Empty
Also this ZEC, you better keep a close eye on it to see if it breaks above 750 before December 1st. Pay attention, no nonsense.
See original
When the stars shout their orders, I usually keep my position empty 🤫
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$ZEC
{future}(ZECUSDT)
So crazy, Trump’s second son is leading the shout for orders, so crazy, the giants shout orders one after another!
The giants collectively jump in to shout orders, the institutional FOMO sentiment directly ignites the whole场!
Trump’s second son first made a heavy shout: BTC will break through 175,000 US dollars by the end of the year! Now is the critical period for the election, is this wave definitely hiding a policy tilt ace behind it?
Immediately, BlackRock personally stepped in with a 10 trillion asset management base, confirming the ultimate script of BTC at 700,000 dollars.
CZ even directly mentioned that he sees the price between 500,000 to 1,000,000 dollars, the father of exchanges is not hiding it.
Even the DOGE army flipped the market with memes, the target of 7.2 dollars is crazier than the candlestick charts!
Looking back now, where is the 80,000-dollar BTC high? It is clearly a low-priced chip given away for free! 0.13 dollars for doge, how is that speculation? It’s purely a blind opportunity to pick up money; when it truly rushes to the target price, you might hesitate for half a day just to pay the entry fees!
BTC has the triple endorsement of BlackRock + CZ + Trump family, a million dollars is just a matter of time.
Doge relies on the consensus of the whole network for support, 7.2 dollars is not the end, just a mid-station.
Hold tight on the spot, don’t mess around; those who can’t hold this wave really don’t deserve to enjoy the full bull market dividends!
Trust BlackRock for stable long-term gains, follow CZ to hit the rhythm, hold Doge to earn enough emotional dividends, and chase the Trump family’s policy betting wind. If you don’t get on the bus now, are you going to wait for BTC to break a million, or for Doge to rush to 7 dollars, and then cry asking if you can dollar-cost average?
Do you all think BTC can reach 175,000 by the end of the year? Will Doge 7.2 dollars be realized in advance? Share your target price in the comments.
#比特币波动性
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$ZEC
{future}(ZECUSDT)
So crazy, Trump’s second son is leading the shout for orders, so crazy, the giants shout orders one after another!
The giants collectively jump in to shout orders, the institutional FOMO sentiment directly ignites the whole场!
Trump’s second son first made a heavy shout: BTC will break through 175,000 US dollars by the end of the year! Now is the critical period for the election, is this wave definitely hiding a policy tilt ace behind it?
Immediately, BlackRock personally stepped in with a 10 trillion asset management base, confirming the ultimate script of BTC at 700,000 dollars.
CZ even directly mentioned that he sees the price between 500,000 to 1,000,000 dollars, the father of exchanges is not hiding it.
Even the DOGE army flipped the market with memes, the target of 7.2 dollars is crazier than the candlestick charts!
Looking back now, where is the 80,000-dollar BTC high? It is clearly a low-priced chip given away for free! 0.13 dollars for doge, how is that speculation? It’s purely a blind opportunity to pick up money; when it truly rushes to the target price, you might hesitate for half a day just to pay the entry fees!
BTC has the triple endorsement of BlackRock + CZ + Trump family, a million dollars is just a matter of time.
Doge relies on the consensus of the whole network for support, 7.2 dollars is not the end, just a mid-station.
Hold tight on the spot, don’t mess around; those who can’t hold this wave really don’t deserve to enjoy the full bull market dividends!
Trust BlackRock for stable long-term gains, follow CZ to hit the rhythm, hold Doge to earn enough emotional dividends, and chase the Trump family’s policy betting wind. If you don’t get on the bus now, are you going to wait for BTC to break a million, or for Doge to rush to 7 dollars, and then cry asking if you can dollar-cost average?
Do you all think BTC can reach 175,000 by the end of the year? Will Doge 7.2 dollars be realized in advance? Share your target price in the comments.
#比特币波动性
See original
After this message came out, I am more determined to continue holding a short position.
The large holder just bought 457,000 ETH! ALL IN!
🚨Big news!! A large holder who started playing with coins a long time ago just bought 457,000 coins$ETH , spending $1.25 billion!
This person has almost never missed a bottom before, and every time they went all in.
What he means by buying like this now is very clear:
I think the bottom is almost here$ETH , he definitely knows better than us.👀
This person has almost never missed a bottom before, and every time they went all in.
What he means by buying like this now is very clear:
I think the bottom is almost here$ETH , he definitely knows better than us.👀
See original
Add some Sichuan pepper and garlic for baking, the aftertaste is endless
分析师舒琴
--
The unexpected guest continues... After everyone's persuasion, Benqin gathered courage to send the little frog back outside (gently guiding it out the door with a mop). During this time, Benqin was not injured, and the frog prince was also fine. Finally, let's get a frontal shot of the frog prince!
See original
Liquidity has been completely harvested by Trump and the local dogs; even a rate cut won't be able to stimulate it.
Oh no, no interest rate cuts in December, what to do about this?
$TNSR $ZEC $DOGE
{future}(DOGEUSDT)
{future}(ZECUSDT)
{future}(TNSRUSDT)
$TNSR $ZEC $DOGE
{future}(DOGEUSDT)
{future}(ZECUSDT)
{future}(TNSRUSDT)
See original
After speaking, it dropped 10%
The good news for ondo has arrived, let's go $ONDO
See original
The large pancake is visibly in the 80s
I have experienced 21 years of bull markets, which led to me dying in the pattern during this entire bull market☹️
#加密市场回调
#加密市场回调
See original
The true hunter waits for his battlefield during most of the garbage time, often in silence.
Retail investors on the chart, the red and green flickering like tides, countless seemingly "opportunities" flashing before their eyes. Retail investors excitedly chase these ripples, while his screen may remain silent for days, even weeks, without a single transaction.
This silence is not inaction; it is a high level of restraint. Amidst the clamor of others and FOMO (fear of missing out), he maintains inner order. He understands the core principle of the market: most fluctuations are market noise, and true trends are rare species, scarce and precious.
Thus, he, like a cheetah lurking deep in the jungle, gathers all restlessness and desires within. His capital is his ammunition, never to be wasted on any unnecessary probing shots. He waits for that "perfect moment," validated by countless data, logic, and experience, that belongs solely to him.
When that moment arrives, the world suddenly slows down.
The market moves to extremes in either frenzy or despair, all indicators pointing in the same direction, the risk-reward ratio presenting a golden proportion. All previous waiting, all patience, condenses into an absolute calm at this moment.
When the opportunity comes, there is no hesitation, no fear, like a well-trained soldier pulling the trigger, like a cheetah springing from the grass. One strike, clean and swift, precise and fierce. Positions are established in an instant, funds pouring in like a burst dam.
This strike is not gambling; it is the inevitable execution of logic. It is the only reward the market gives after long periods of solitary vigilance. It may last only a few hours, even minutes, but is enough to seize profits that others may not obtain even after a whole year of busy effort.
After the trade ends, the account numbers fluctuate; he does not feel ecstasy but calmly closes the trading interface. Profits are quickly transferred to a safe corner, and the market is once again irrelevant to him.
He returns to that silent, waiting state.
Because he understands that the glory of the hunter lies not in the number of kills but in the precision of a single, lethal strike, and the strength to endure solitude. In this zero-sum game, the true winners are always those hunters who best understand "stillness."
$BTC
Retail investors on the chart, the red and green flickering like tides, countless seemingly "opportunities" flashing before their eyes. Retail investors excitedly chase these ripples, while his screen may remain silent for days, even weeks, without a single transaction.
This silence is not inaction; it is a high level of restraint. Amidst the clamor of others and FOMO (fear of missing out), he maintains inner order. He understands the core principle of the market: most fluctuations are market noise, and true trends are rare species, scarce and precious.
Thus, he, like a cheetah lurking deep in the jungle, gathers all restlessness and desires within. His capital is his ammunition, never to be wasted on any unnecessary probing shots. He waits for that "perfect moment," validated by countless data, logic, and experience, that belongs solely to him.
When that moment arrives, the world suddenly slows down.
The market moves to extremes in either frenzy or despair, all indicators pointing in the same direction, the risk-reward ratio presenting a golden proportion. All previous waiting, all patience, condenses into an absolute calm at this moment.
When the opportunity comes, there is no hesitation, no fear, like a well-trained soldier pulling the trigger, like a cheetah springing from the grass. One strike, clean and swift, precise and fierce. Positions are established in an instant, funds pouring in like a burst dam.
This strike is not gambling; it is the inevitable execution of logic. It is the only reward the market gives after long periods of solitary vigilance. It may last only a few hours, even minutes, but is enough to seize profits that others may not obtain even after a whole year of busy effort.
After the trade ends, the account numbers fluctuate; he does not feel ecstasy but calmly closes the trading interface. Profits are quickly transferred to a safe corner, and the market is once again irrelevant to him.
He returns to that silent, waiting state.
Because he understands that the glory of the hunter lies not in the number of kills but in the precision of a single, lethal strike, and the strength to endure solitude. In this zero-sum game, the true winners are always those hunters who best understand "stillness."
$BTC
See original
Watching a show with an empty warehouse, right? $BTC
See original
The drop is very smooth, completely unrelated to whether the government opens the door 😅#美国结束政府停摆 $BTC
See original
Qualifying as illegal gambling or operating a casino in the country
AB Kuai Dong
--
Finally, a KOL has been sentenced for running a paid group.
The Eastern District Court in Hong Kong ruled that KOL Zhou Baixian (online name Futu Major Shareholder) was sentenced to 6 weeks in prison for establishing a paid Telegram group that provided financial advice.
The brother charged everyone a monthly fee of 200 or 1560 HKD to join the group, earning 43,000 HKD in just over a month, ultimately facing charges from the Securities and Futures Commission.
What a pity, just to earn this 5000 USD = 6 weeks in prison.
The Eastern District Court in Hong Kong ruled that KOL Zhou Baixian (online name Futu Major Shareholder) was sentenced to 6 weeks in prison for establishing a paid Telegram group that provided financial advice.
The brother charged everyone a monthly fee of 200 or 1560 HKD to join the group, earning 43,000 HKD in just over a month, ultimately facing charges from the Securities and Futures Commission.
What a pity, just to earn this 5000 USD = 6 weeks in prison.
See original
Old Zhang is awesome, the white cloth gets results from you
I have achieved two big results on BSC in one year
One was the white cloth in March, and the other is the current charity
#GIGGLE
I am not a top-tier player
But I am definitely a child of BSC
Binance has brought me so much luck
No flattery, no belittling
I started focusing on BSC at the beginning of the year and changed my personal homepage community group to BSC carnival, because at that time I felt that regardless of whether the market was good or bad, as long as you continue to build and observe the BSC market, you can get what you want here, because this is the most suitable place for retail investors
Without Binance, there would be no BSC and no market
At the same time, there would be no opportunity given to us retail investors
The bull market belongs to BSC's bull market, it is the bull market of #BNB
I lost 400,000 U on the S chain
I lost 200,000 U on the base chain
I lost 100,000 U on the X chain
The only thing that made me money is BSC!
Although this time giggle has ups and downs, I think my operations have been quite good, I believe no one can withstand the violent washout of nine consecutive daily negative candles without moving 😂
Fortunately, during the continuous construction, I also seized the opportunity
In just one year, even I, a novice, can seize two big opportunities on BSC, BSC is the place for ordinary people to turn their fortunes around!
In the crypto world, if you don't pay attention to Binance's dynamics, and don't ponder every word @cz_binance and @heyibinance say, and the meaning of each X, then I advise you to go home and rest and not waste time here.
Today I suddenly found that I have exactly 260,000 Twitter followers, and this time is exactly the first charity + meme in BSC history. I also plan to help some people in need with 260,000 in a charitable way, sincerely helping those who really need assistance in life (I will announce how to implement this as soon as possible, and suggestions are welcome)
But it must be real, real, real.
Finally, Binance wallet invitation code: Y30AV3KM
(If you haven't bound it, binding it will save a lot of fees)
One was the white cloth in March, and the other is the current charity
#GIGGLE
I am not a top-tier player
But I am definitely a child of BSC
Binance has brought me so much luck
No flattery, no belittling
I started focusing on BSC at the beginning of the year and changed my personal homepage community group to BSC carnival, because at that time I felt that regardless of whether the market was good or bad, as long as you continue to build and observe the BSC market, you can get what you want here, because this is the most suitable place for retail investors
Without Binance, there would be no BSC and no market
At the same time, there would be no opportunity given to us retail investors
The bull market belongs to BSC's bull market, it is the bull market of #BNB
I lost 400,000 U on the S chain
I lost 200,000 U on the base chain
I lost 100,000 U on the X chain
The only thing that made me money is BSC!
Although this time giggle has ups and downs, I think my operations have been quite good, I believe no one can withstand the violent washout of nine consecutive daily negative candles without moving 😂
Fortunately, during the continuous construction, I also seized the opportunity
In just one year, even I, a novice, can seize two big opportunities on BSC, BSC is the place for ordinary people to turn their fortunes around!
In the crypto world, if you don't pay attention to Binance's dynamics, and don't ponder every word @cz_binance and @heyibinance say, and the meaning of each X, then I advise you to go home and rest and not waste time here.
Today I suddenly found that I have exactly 260,000 Twitter followers, and this time is exactly the first charity + meme in BSC history. I also plan to help some people in need with 260,000 in a charitable way, sincerely helping those who really need assistance in life (I will announce how to implement this as soon as possible, and suggestions are welcome)
But it must be real, real, real.
Finally, Binance wallet invitation code: Y30AV3KM
(If you haven't bound it, binding it will save a lot of fees)
See original
A group of adorable ones said they are bullish when it goes up, and bearish when it goes down, continuing to watch the show $BTC
See original
I see you are quite easy, Zhao Chang'e 😂😂😂
Perhaps many people want to buy at the bottom, it is advised not to borrow money to go all in. Zhao Changpeng said that back in the day he went all in on Bitcoin while still having a monthly income; the investment amount must be within a controllable range.
$BNB $XRP $SOL
$BNB $XRP $SOL
See original
Good news implemented, funds leaving
The drop in the early hours of tonight left many people feeling bewildered, but the reasons are not complex. The core issue lies in the liquidity tightening phase, where the market has had further funds withdrawn, a point often overlooked by most people.
The first layer of the reason comes from U.S. Treasury auctions. The government is in a state of shutdown, and the TGA is not replenishing, leading to a lack of liquidity in the market itself. Although the Federal Reserve attempts to supplement from the banking side, the amount absorbed by the bond market is larger. The nominal scale of the three-month and six-month U.S. Treasury auctions is $163 billion, but from the announcements, the actual scale reached $170.69 billion. After deducting the portion reinvested by the Federal Reserve's SOMA, the actual funds drawn from the market this time are $163 billion. This means that the financial market has had an equivalent amount of liquidity withdrawn in a short period.
When liquidity is loose, auctions of similar scales do not bring significant shocks to the market, but during a tightening cycle, any large-scale withdrawal will be directly felt by risk assets. The recent drop in Bitcoin is actually the most direct reaction to this outflow of funds.
The second layer of the reason comes from the Federal Reserve's stance. Powell maintained a hawkish position in his speech, causing market confidence in a rate cut in December to decline further, with the probability of a rate cut falling from nearly 70% to some extent. Rate cut expectations are originally an important support for boosting risk asset sentiment; once expectations weaken, the market naturally comes under short-term pressure.
One factor is the foundation of liquidity, and the other is the expectations on an emotional level. The combination of the two has led to an overall weakening of risk assets, with Bitcoin's performance being particularly evident. Market sentiment tends to become pessimistic in this stage, which is a natural reaction.
However, it should be noted that the real breakthrough is not complex. After the government resumes operations, the funds inflow from TGA replenishment will lead to improvement. On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve slows down its absorption in overnight reverse repos and releases some short-term liquidity, it will also alleviate market pressure. The issue of liquidity cycles has never been eternal, only temporary.
The market is tough to endure, but the logic is clear. Understanding the direction of liquidity is more important than focusing on every single candlestick. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The first layer of the reason comes from U.S. Treasury auctions. The government is in a state of shutdown, and the TGA is not replenishing, leading to a lack of liquidity in the market itself. Although the Federal Reserve attempts to supplement from the banking side, the amount absorbed by the bond market is larger. The nominal scale of the three-month and six-month U.S. Treasury auctions is $163 billion, but from the announcements, the actual scale reached $170.69 billion. After deducting the portion reinvested by the Federal Reserve's SOMA, the actual funds drawn from the market this time are $163 billion. This means that the financial market has had an equivalent amount of liquidity withdrawn in a short period.
When liquidity is loose, auctions of similar scales do not bring significant shocks to the market, but during a tightening cycle, any large-scale withdrawal will be directly felt by risk assets. The recent drop in Bitcoin is actually the most direct reaction to this outflow of funds.
The second layer of the reason comes from the Federal Reserve's stance. Powell maintained a hawkish position in his speech, causing market confidence in a rate cut in December to decline further, with the probability of a rate cut falling from nearly 70% to some extent. Rate cut expectations are originally an important support for boosting risk asset sentiment; once expectations weaken, the market naturally comes under short-term pressure.
One factor is the foundation of liquidity, and the other is the expectations on an emotional level. The combination of the two has led to an overall weakening of risk assets, with Bitcoin's performance being particularly evident. Market sentiment tends to become pessimistic in this stage, which is a natural reaction.
However, it should be noted that the real breakthrough is not complex. After the government resumes operations, the funds inflow from TGA replenishment will lead to improvement. On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve slows down its absorption in overnight reverse repos and releases some short-term liquidity, it will also alleviate market pressure. The issue of liquidity cycles has never been eternal, only temporary.
The market is tough to endure, but the logic is clear. Understanding the direction of liquidity is more important than focusing on every single candlestick. $BTC $ETH $SOL
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