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How to judge the market through price, OI, market value, and funding rate?

Price increase + OI increase
Bullish strength, new funds driving, healthy trend, suitable for holding.

Price increase + OI decrease
Bears passively cover (inducing longs), upward momentum weak, beware of subsequent pullbacks.

Price decrease + OI increase
Bears strong, new funds shorting, bearish sentiment strong, avoid bottom fishing.

Price decrease + OI decrease
Bulls forced liquidation/bankruptcy (de-leveraging), after panic cleansing, may form bottom signal.

Based on this basic signal, the ratio of OI/market value can be introduced. The higher the ratio, the higher the leverage of the coin, and the greater the volatility. Of course, a higher ratio is not necessarily better.

< 10%: Relatively healthy, volatility may be more "natural."

10% - 20%: High leverage zone, opportunities and risks coexist.

> 20%: Extremely dangerous zone, prone to large-scale liquidations, prices may crash instantly, this type of coin is only suitable for high-risk speculators.

The smaller the market value, the more intense the volatility. It is recommended to focus on coins with a market value of over 100m, and be mindful of risk. At this moment, if the negative rate is fully charged, there will often be a wave of intense short squeeze market.

BTC price 91036
1. BTC has reached a stage where the minor rebounds are weak. Although the 5-day moving average is rising, the 10-day and 20-day moving averages are declining. The minor level conforms to the major level, so be cautious of a pullback after a surge.
2. Here, there is a significant advantage to shorting contracts. If there is an intraday surge, short into it; a pullback is inevitable (please refer to the video for details).
3. A small position in spot trading can be held. If it pulls back, you can increase your position, but if your position is heavy, take profits at the high.

$turmp Launching a coin is the end of a bull market and also the end of sol, and sol has not recovered since then.

Now the pace is even faster, the mascot of the $mon chain $chog surged to 10 million in fifteen minutes, and you can compare the K-line to see that the peak of $chog and the highest point of mon were almost in the same minute.

After the climax, it is originally an endless emptiness, in just one day $mon dropped by 30 percent.
Every time it’s the same routine, except that $sol at least had a climax for three days, while the climax of mon ended the battle in just fifteen minutes.

How to Trade Short-Term Markets — Six Essential Strategies for Short-Term Trading, Simple and Practical:
1. Consolidation Must Change
Don't rush to enter the market during high-level consolidation, and don't panic to cut losses during low-level bottoming; hold steady and don't act until the direction is clear.
2. Horizontal Market Hides Traps
During horizontal periods, it's easy to trigger liquidations; patiently wait for market breakouts or pullbacks, and don't place random orders due to impatience.
3. Buy on Down Days, Sell on Up Days
Counter-direction trading is more effective; enter when the price drops significantly and sell decisively when it rises steadily.
4. Opportunities in Sharp Declines
Slow declines have gentle rebounds, while fast declines often see stronger rebounds. In the case of waterfall declines, you can actually find layout opportunities.
5. Pyramid Positioning
In the bottom area, add a portion of your position every time it drops by 10%, which can lower costs and increase future profit margins.
6. Quick Liquidation During Trend Changes.
After a sharp rise, consolidate and withdraw capital, leaving only profits; after a sharp decline, consolidate and quickly cut losses without taking chances.

The hindsight of the "end of the bull market" is the reason why 90% of investors lose money.

In reality, the end of a bull market is not a sudden explosion of fireworks, but a slow disintegration of a bubble. This process will at least give you 3 clear signals.

🚨
First signal: Retail investors' frenzy + sudden attention from distant relatives.

The stage of "everyone is afraid of missing out" is the most dangerous; no market can allow the majority to make money.

At this time, the signs are quite uniform:
Trending searches and trend indicators jump several levels.
Wallet and account openings irrationally surge.
Even relatives who usually don't touch investments start asking you, "Should we buy some?"

🚨
Second signal: Significant market decline + a large number of FOMO investors trying to catch the bottom.

"Adequate counterparty" is the stepping stone for the decline. If there are no bottom fishers, there might be a chance to V again.

This is the most dangerous illusion in the later stages of a bull market:
A crash of 10-20%, the more it falls, the more excited people get.
KOLs uniformly say: "Thank you to the market for the opportunity, healthy adjustment."
Comments and groups shout, "Catch the bottom, increase positions, go all in!"

🚨
Third signal: Institutions retreat + shrinking trading volume.

Retail investors see small opportunities in K lines, while institutions see large trends in flow.

At this time, the signs include:
Large addresses continue to decrease.
ETF/micro-strategies' "inflows slow down" and "outflows" turn into "inflows."
Project teams are unwilling to do anything, TGE delayed, no longer holding events to promote.
Staking, fundraising, KOLs release quality conditions in rotation.

🚩
This round

Signal 1 has not appeared, so many people do not believe the bull market is over, because many have not made money and have not seen people around them asking about trading coins.

Signal 2: CEX trading volume is very weak, and retail investors' frantic bottom-fishing is not obvious either.

Signal 3: The retreat of institutions and the shrinking trading volume are the most prominent manifestations.

Skipping signals 1 and 2 is not difficult to understand, because the 2025 bull market is purely driven by institutional participation. A large volume of transactions is conducted OTC, and crypto not only lacks ecological innovation but is also tied to the US stock market. Therefore, there is no need to painstakingly search for signals 1, 2, and 3; institutions are the market!

From a technical perspective, the probability of continuing to rise after the oscillation ends is quite high, as the short-term price continues to oscillate and digest selling pressure while also testing the strength of the support at the lower edge. Currently, it has not broken the support line. Additionally, the small-scale bearish indicators have started to decrease in volume, indicating that a rebound may happen at any time in the short term.

Based on this pattern, I still prefer a rebound upward before starting to fall. The upper resistance line range to continue watching is 3170-3200, while the support below is focused on 2970-2950. For now, let's continue to patiently wait for opportunities!

ETH Multiple Top Retracement
ETH has formed a multiple top retracement around 3043, with 2977 being the neck line. According to a 1:1 proportional retracement, ETH is expected to stop declining around 2911 and then form a rebound.
Wait on the right side for the candlestick to retrace to 2977; if it breaks without a pullback, short in the direction of the trend with a stop at 3043 and a target near 2911;
On the left side, position a short at 3043 with a stop at the previous high of 3097, targeting 2989 and 2953.

Discuss the techniques of this week's market consolidation. I have observed that the trends of many large, medium, and small caps are very similar, all showing a rise of a few points in the morning and then a continuous decline in the afternoon.

My understanding is that if large funds want to exit, it only takes half an hour to an hour to do so; there is no need to push for an entire morning.
Therefore, in the morning, large funds are buying, and after achieving a good price, they let retail investors sell. In the afternoon, large funds do not maintain the stock price and only buy the sell orders from retail investors below.

The above is for reference only.

In the crypto world, only play with BTC, ETH, and SOL
Then shift attention and time spent on altcoins in the crypto space
To gold and silver, which is absolutely easier than trying to catch small market cap altcoins every day
Isn't the liquidity of 29 trillion and 3 trillion crushing the crypto world?

The tactics of pump-and-dump schemes for altcoins are different from last year; this year's are even more disgusting. As long as there is one strong pump, the rates will continuously rise to -1.5 or -2, and they will collect every hour. After a few rounds of collection, the rates will start to plummet! I originally intended to short ace, but after glancing at the rate of -1.5, I gave up after one hour of collection. I'm waiting for a big, certain opportunity to come; otherwise, shorting definitely won't be cost-effective. If I can't get out, the fees will be enough to eat up a pot!

The rebound of okb is a bit stable, with small steps rebounding, operating within an upward channel. Pay attention to the resistance line above; once broken, there will be at least one wave of accelerated upward trend.

BCH is one of the most promising assets among old coins. The weekly chart indicates a high concentration of chips. Although it hasn't shown an independent trend yet, once the main upward wave starts, it will definitely have significant potential. It is essential to keep a close watch on it.

Excluding $SOL, there are currently only four approved and listed trading altcoin spot ETFs:
$XRP, $LTC, $HBAR, $DOGE
1. XRP (current price $2.2)
In the first week, net inflow exceeded $450 million, with Bitwise alone purchasing 77.14 million XRP.
Since the Ripple lawsuit settled, today's XRP is no longer the 'bank coin' of 2017, but rather a 'cross-border payment bridging asset' in the eyes of compliant institutions. The market has proven with real money: compliance > any narrative
2. LTC (current price $86)
Although it has the least presence among these four, it is the most stable. Once dubbed digital silver, it has never been named by the SEC, and its non-security attributes are the cleanest.
3. HBAR (current price $0.148)
The only approved enterprise-level public chain, although current capital inflow is not large (accumulated $79 million), the holdings are extremely solid, almost entirely institutional and corporate wallets.
4. DOGE (0.154)
Although since its listing it has been affected by the outflow of BTC/ETH ETFs during the same period, the net inflow of DOGE ETF is far from expected, but its lock-up effect reduces supply. Moreover, the listing of DOGE ETF is not just a market event, but a cultural milestone, solidifying the evolution of meme coins from internet jokes to regulated financial instruments.

The position of Bitcoin at 100,000 is crucial! Why is this price so critical?——
Near the price level of 100,000 USD, 71% of the circulating supply of BTC is still in profit, and the current selling pressure mainly comes from long-term holders.
100,000 is the historical fair price line, which is the average premium of BTC relative to the average buying price throughout its history.
According to historical backtesting, in the previous two cycles of bull-bear transition phases, if BTC bounces multiple times after breaking the fair price line but fails to hold, it will then enter a deep bear phase!

The counterfeit market hasn't seen much volume today, basically no significant increases.
However, Bitcoin has been somewhat strong since early morning, so the 92 level still needs to be watched.
Ethereum hasn't followed too aggressively, and its increase isn't as strong as Bitcoin's.
Let's see if there can be a slight rebound tonight.
If there isn't one tonight, then even a pullback in Bitcoin will drag it down.
On an intraday level, Bitcoin needs to focus on the 886-892 range.
For Ethereum on an intraday level, pay attention to the support around 2960.
If Ethereum weakens and breaks below 2960, then watch for a rebound in the 2880-2930 range.

The current game of polymarker is a bit scary, with 1m in funds for each marker to gamble at the end of the trading session. Moreover, there are also appeals against this judgment of pm. Teachers, are you really not afraid of being taken advantage of? With a 1m order plus the existing position of 2m, that brings nearly 3m in funds into play.