老K的比特币行情洞察

Bitcoin is very convoluted: it can’t push higher highs, and it can’t drop to lower lows. The sell side seems somewhat depleted, but it’s still difficult for the bulls to break through the flag. There’s been persistent selling pressure overhead. So it’s better to watch for now and only act when the trend becomes clear.

Share a chart about the issues of different storage tracks in the storage industry. This isn’t about saying that the higher the AI purity, the better—it’s just to show you how one company’s business is structured.#存储芯片

1. First, pull up the old accounts
On the evening of September 29, I gave two numbers: first, when the market rebounds, look at 85,000; for a double-top neckline, 85,200. I reminded everyone about a potential false breakout and momentum exhaustion. In the morning of September 30, I went through the pending orders again: between 84,300 and 85,300 there were large sell orders stacked up; the real bid support below was lying at 82,000. Last night, the PCE came out. BTC moved from 84,300 to 85,200—touched about a hundred points up to 85,300—and then a long upper wick was used to smash it back down. These two judgments matched what the chart showed perfectly. So when I saw a large amount of spot sell orders appearing in the order book, I opened a short position with a small size. After the drop confirmed the trend, I found a natural rebound high point. Then at 84,700 I added more. I’ve already taken partial profit; the rest is just holding the position.
2. Why good news doesn’t seem to work
Two rounds of signals: one was the geopolitical positive from September 29, and the other was last night’s PCE. Each one was shorter-lived than the last. That stack of sell orders at 85,300 got cleared again, along with another batch of chase buyers. Right now, for BTC, good news can only buy you a long upper wick—it can’t bring real money.
3. Lock onto two key levels
82,800 is the short-term examination zone: if it holds sideways, then by moving sideways it digests the sell pressure; if it grinds back and wears through the buying support, it will pierce through. If it truly breaks, then the wall of bids at 82,000—the $9.3 million order that’s been hanging for 8 days—is the bulls’ real trump card. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls is the last variable.
4. Next, I’ll talk about three things
When to enter a short, when to add if 82,800 breaks, and what to do if it doesn’t grind through—video analysis today. $BTC

Core PCE is coming again. BTC has been grinding on a millstone, and tonight there’s a high probability of triggering one of two scenarios: either it breaks below 82,800, or it makes a fake breakdown by dipping slightly to insert a “needle.” In any case, it’s very likely to move downward for a wave—it's just a question of whether it will reclaim. In this kind of situation, shorting late probably won’t be in time; once the news drops, the price will react immediately. Entering a short at this price also isn’t very safe. If the news is good, even if it inserts a needle, it will likely be quickly pulled back. This price is also near the support level, so even if it dips, that’s the low point you’ll face. So when you encounter a situation like this, what would you do? #$BTC

Testing again 82800! BTC at the smaller timeframe is mostly ranging, slightly weak. Around 82800 there is some support coming in, but we can’t confirm the downtrend has stopped yet. The spot CVD continues to fall, indicating the active sell pressure hasn’t stopped, but the price hasn’t dropped further—meaning there are passive orders being placed to pick it up. Open interest is only slightly increasing at a low level; the rebound looks more like a renewed tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The longs are trying to hold the boundary. Focus on 82800: if it holds and you reclaim 83100–83300, you can look for a pullback to 83500–83600. If the 15-minute timeframe has a decisive breakdown below 82800 and the rebound can’t get back above it, then it will most likely continue to test 82500–82600. #比特币跌破8.3万美元 $BTC

US stocks are split and the U.S. Treasury trap
U.S. Treasury yields have gone on a rampage—these traditional giants like McDonald’s have been battered badly, and Nike is down 44% this year! Why hasn’t AI gotten truly huge yet, especially in the Nasdaq 100 (FANG+) segment? The essence is that its explosive growth rate is pushing through resistance; institutions are unwilling to miss their spot. But don’t forget: in the long run, high interest rates are the sword hanging over the heads of all risk assets. Even though Wall Street has recently come out saying that the 10-year Treasury yield would need to fall to 7% for the stock market to truly crash, as long as this AI fervor cools even slightly, the backlash afterward will be extremely violent. Right now, the market is waiting for Micron’s earnings report early tomorrow morning. On the other hand, if Micron’s earnings surge, and if Friday’s nonfarm payrolls employment data doesn’t come in well, then AI could still roar higher. Micron’s example shows there’s still plenty of room compared with the prior high of $1,200. What do you do in this dilemma? Look at how big capital is positioned: it’s risk versus opportunity—both are about strategically grasping the big cycle, and tactically avoiding near-term black swans. #美光财报 #非农就业数据 $MUB

The macro gloom and the low volatility during a turning point have made the market so unnervingly quiet! This is exactly what it looks like right before a storm. Yesterday, oil prices fell back, but U.S. Treasury yields just wouldn’t drop, and on top of that, consumer confidence has plunged. This “economic slowdown + stubbornly high inflation” stagflation haze keeps hanging over our heads. Bitcoin grinding at the highs is extremely tormenting, but a divergence on the daily chart has already appeared. A market turning is very likely to happen within these few days. Have you got both hands ready? I’ve already exited all my futures positions; I’m firmly holding spot at a low price with a 40% allocation. Also, if there’s a rebound back to the high price, I plan to buy put options. $BTC

Bitcoin shorts have surged. Of course, there is not yet any bullish divergence in the chart, but with shorts piled up this heavily, it depends on whether there will be a large buy order to support the market. Once it is propped up, the shorts will become a major fuel source. And if the bears win, then we may next see around 80,000.$BTC #比特币跌破8.3万美元