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The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December continues to rise! Goldman Sachs' latest assessment predicts a rate cut in 2026! #BTC #BTC走势分析
According to a comprehensive report by Global Times Finance, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December continues to grow due to weak employment data. The latest data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting has risen to about 87%.
Goldman Sachs Research has clearly judged in its latest report that there are obvious signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market, and a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is “basically a done deal.” The firm’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, pointed out that the delayed release of the September non-farm payroll report shows weak growth, and other indicators reveal new layoffs in October, especially as the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 has risen to 8.5%, significantly higher than the low point in 2022.
However, Wall Street analysts warn that even if Hassett is appointed, any intention to implement aggressive easing policies will face severe challenges from the Federal Reserve's collective decision-making system. PGIM Fixed Income's co-chief investment officer, Gregory Peters, pointed out that interest rate decisions are collectively made by the committee, and the new chair will find it difficult to push for rapid rate cuts unilaterally.
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BTC is currently oscillating in the $92k range, with clear compression of high and low points. This kind of 'not up, not down' trend actually reveals three signals: 1️⃣ Both bulls and bears are waiting for direction → Market sentiment is cautious Macroeconomic news is unclear, and capital inflow is limited, so the rebound strength is insufficient.
2️⃣ Two key ranges must be monitored tonight: Support: $80,400 (breaking this will open up downside space) Resistance: $93,900–$97,100 (only a breakthrough counts as a real reversal)
3️⃣ Leverage and liquidity remain weak → Prone to false breakouts What we fear most at this stage is not the drop, but the reversal after false rallies and false drops. 🎯 My evening inclination: oscillation > rebound > breakdown (probability from high to low)
Rebounds need capital support; A sharp breakdown requires macro risks to re-emerge. Most of the time will be stuck in the range, consuming sentiment.
📌 Operational Ideas (Personal Opinion) Short-term: wait for direction, do not chase orders. Medium-term: pullbacks are opportunities, but don’t get caught up. Tonight's key point: Can it stand back above $97k? Otherwise, the trend remains weak.
⏳ The countdown for the grand debate has begun! Bitcoin vs Gold 💰📈 Who do you expect to win today? CZ or Peter Schiff? Share your strongest arguments and predictions 👇 BTCvsGold and #BinanceBlockchainWeek $BNB