MR DEALS

Most people are watching rate cuts, but the real event is the end of QT program.

Since 2022, the Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet.

Every time a Treasury or mortgage asset matured, it simply disappeared from the system. No reinvestment. No replacement.

In 3 years, the Fed nearly pulled $3T+ from the system, which has been one of the major reasons behind the underperformance of risk-on assets.

But now this process is changing, and the change is bigger than it looks.

Instead of allowing mortgage assets to roll off entirely, the Fed will take the cash from those maturities and redirect it into Treasuries.

This is not QE, but it does stop the balance sheet from shrinking at the same pace. It shifts the flow of money back into government debt instead of letting it disappear.

This adjustment matters because the Treasury market is facing heavy issuance.

When the Fed becomes a steady buyer, even passively, it adds demand, which usually pushes yields lower and eases financial conditions. And when the Fed absorbs part of this supply, large institutions don’t have to.

That frees up their liquidity to move into other areas of the market.

This is why the end of QT is viewed as “soft easing.”

Not a stimulus, but no longer a drain.

Recent MBS maturities already show how this works: Billions of dollars that previously rolled off will now be reinvested each month, creating a consistent flow back into Treasuries instead of out of the system.

This is the real meaning of QT ending: the Fed stops pulling liquidity out and starts recycling it. Not enough to ignite a surge, but enough to change the direction of pressure.

And this shift is bullish for alts.

In 2019, Alt/BTC started a multi-year uptrend when the Fed ended QT.

But the real rally didn't happen until March 2020.

This is why QT won't guarantee an immediate rally, but it removes one of the biggest headwinds of the last two years and increases the probability of stronger liquidity in 2026.

The main point is when QT ends, the Fed moves one step closer to QE.

And when that happens, the crypto market becomes the fastest horse

$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
#FOMCWatch #BitcoinSPACDeal #PowellSpeech #Fed

The billions of XRP flowing off Binance, Upbit, Kraken right now aren't all going to diamond-handed HODLers. Most of it is the new spot XRP ETFs (XRPC, etc.) soaking up retail & institutional money that would have otherwise traded on exchanges.

Why does that matter? Because lower on-exchange volume = thinner liquidity = way higher volatility.

Simple math:
• $2-3B daily volume → you need $200M+ to move price 5-10%
• <$1B daily volume → a $15M dump or wall swings us 12-18% in an hour

We've lived those weekends before. They're coming back until the market readjusts.

The saving grace? Arbitrage bots.

The same HFT firms crushing BTC/ETH ETF basis trades just changed one line of code and pointed it at XRP.

Whenever the ETF trades rich or cheap to NAV, they hammer the arb, forcing spot XRP and the ETF to stay glued together with <0.3% tracking error, just like Bitcoin today.

So yes, ETF inflows are insanely bullish and the underlying XRP still gets bought on every creation. We're not losing demand. We're just moving the volume from chaotic retail exchanges to institutional ETF order books + arb bots.

Translation: the long-term trend is stronger than ever, but the day-to-day chart on your favorite exchange is about to get a lot more whippy until volume settles again.

My move: watch ETF flow data religiously.
3.51 $ Jus is still coming ⚡️Just expect a few 20% air pockets on the way-up-only elevator

#Ripple #Xrp #MarketPullback #Xrp

$XRP