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Ethereum and Shanzhai plummeted in April 2024, rebounded in May, and then plummeted for three months. September is the first month that Ethereum and Shanzhai have a hope of a big positive line.
We cannot say that Ethereum and altcoins will take off when the monthly line has a big positive line, but only a strong rebound of the monthly line will have hope for a bottom. Therefore, the closing of the last two days is the key.
Bitcoin's daily chart is at the critical point of double top and W bottom. The key is whether it can stabilize at 70,000 or fall back below 65,000.

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Unlike the previous six months, this round of Bitcoin rebound not only led to the rebound of altcoins, but also the rebound of a large number of altcoins was far stronger than Bitcoin. There was even a large number of general price increases in altcoins.
When the market was in despair, hope did emerge. If the plunge on April 14 was to clean up contracts, and the plunge on June 18 was to clean up leverage, then the apocalyptic plunge on August 5 shattered the last hope of those holding copycat spot positions.
When a copycat stock falls by more than 51%, the subsequent plunge actually has little to do with the contract, because the 2x leverage has been liquidated, and it is more about the despair of the copycat spot.

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On September 25, Bitcoin fell back to 62,600 and rushed to 65,200. It should be said that it is still in the range of fluctuations, but the high point of the rebound has increased.
If Bitcoin can stabilize at 65,000, the altcoin is likely to have a strong rebound. Near the end of the month, if the rebound can last for a month and the monthly line has a big positive line, the altcoin will slowly stabilize.
There is a high probability that there will be another interest rate cut in November. I hope the market will get better and better. Everyone is in the market, and everyone is eager for a surge and wealth.

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On September 17, Bitcoin fell back to the lowest point of 57,500, which coincided with the support level of 57,000 in the article of Cognitive Society yesterday.
On September 16, Bitcoin plummeted to a low of 57,500, which coincided with the support level of 57,000 in yesterday's article.
Yesterday, an article from Cognition News reminded: If Bitcoin holds at 57,000, it will repeatedly hit around 60,000.
It is expected that Bitcoin will rebound to a high of 60,000 on September 17.
Bitcoin is still in a consolidation range, and the real short-term direction has not yet been chosen, because the interest rate cut meeting on September 19 is coming soon, which is the most significant.

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On September 16, Bitcoin indeed plunged to around 58,000 due to a top divergence, with the lowest point of 57,500 matching the support level of 57,000 in yesterday’s article.
If Bitcoin holds 57,000, it will repeatedly hit 60,000. If Bitcoin falls below 57,000, it will reach 55,000.
Cognition Society believes that the most significant impact on the market is definitely the interest rate cut on September 19, so it is important to pay attention to the interest rate cut meeting in a timely manner. The first interest rate cut is extremely important.
The important thing is not to imagine that the market will soar immediately after the interest rate cut, but that this is the first time and the first day of the interest rate cut. The interest rate has been cut slowly for 25 years and many times. After a large number of interest rate cuts, the market will have enough liquidity and money, which is the basis of the bull market.

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On September 15, Bitcoin rebounded to a high of 60,500 as expected.
Bitcoin is consolidating strongly and waiting for short-term direction. Currently, the four top divergences of Bitcoin are the biggest risk. To resolve this risk, one is to step back to around 58,000, and the other is to break through 60,600 to 63,000 with large volume.
Because the top divergence is caused by insufficient volume, a large volume breakthrough is also a way to solve the top divergence.
Bitcoin's daily line is close to the o-axis, so if it can stand firm at 60,600, it will be of great significance to the confidence of the market, because if the copycat wants to go further, it needs Bitcoin to give it confidence and environment. After all, the crypto industry has seen a sharp drop in Bitcoin, and the possibility of copycats making huge profits is not high.

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On September 12, the highest point of Bitcoin rebound was 58,600, which coincided with the pressure point of 58,500 in the cognitive article.
After all, the CPI data is a small positive. Although it may cause the Fed to reduce the interest rate from 50 basis points to 25 basis points in September, it also shows that the US economy does not have too many problems. As long as the US economy does not decline, continued interest rate cuts will lead to huge liquidity, that is, more money in the market.
It is expected that Bitcoin rebounds to 58,500. Whether it continues to rebound or falls back to around 55,500 is the key to the future market. Now is mid-September. If Bitcoin can continue to rebound and close with a big positive line in September, it will be of great significance to the market. Of course, the liquidity of the market in the first month of the interest rate cut is still very insufficient. It is more of a desire, not a sufficient logical judgment.

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The US CPI data on September 11 will have a decisive significance for the interest rate cut. If the CPI drops quickly, it will also be a positive. There is also a debate between the two US presidential candidates. Whether Bitcoin can be discussed is of great significance.
Bitcoin's support level is 56400-54800. As long as 56400 is maintained and 58000 is repeatedly rushed, 58000-60000 is a strong pressure level. Unless there is good news tomorrow night, it will be difficult to stand firm.
If the CPI data is positive and Bitcoin sprints to 60,000, there should be a rebound in the altcoin market.

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There is a big difference between the highest point of Bitcoin rebound on September 9, 55,700, and the pressure point of 56,600 mentioned in yesterday's article.
In fact, many altcoins are consolidating near the pressure level, waiting for the strength of Bitcoin, such as BLUR0.17 UNI6.6, but the weakness of Bitcoin has led to the altcoins never having a strong market.
It is not the selling around 55,700 Bitcoin that is suppressing the market, but the weakness of the market. Bitcoin ETF has not had such a long period of net outflow for a long time, which shows that institutions are changing positions on the eve of the US dollar rate cut.

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On September 7, Bitcoin rebounded to a high of 58,500, which is close to the pressure point of 58,000 mentioned in yesterday’s article.
Bitcoin was trapped at 58,000 as expected and then fell back to 56,400.
In the weak consolidation market, the decline of the altcoins is very small this time. It needs Bitcoin and Ethereum to lead the sprint. Unfortunately, Bitcoin has not been very strong recently.
One is the disastrous employment data, which once again made many people cry out for the U.S. economic recession.
In fact, this matter is not very meaningful. It does not mean that whether the US economy is in recession or not has no impact on the cryptocurrency market, but the US data is set by others. What can we ordinary people do?

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The highest point of Bitcoin rebound on September 5th was 60,000, which perfectly matches the pressure point of 60,000 in yesterday’s article.
Bitcoin rebounding to 60,000 is expected and is also the standard way of playing in the volatile market. The repeated long and short fluctuations have made more and more people play the market and finally start to choose the direction.
On the surface, the sharp drop was caused by Grayscale's selling of 2,000 bitcoins, but in fact it has nothing to do with it, because Mentougou's 60,000 bitcoins did not prevent the then bitcoin price of 56,460 from rising to 70,000. The fundamental reason is the lack of confidence and buying in the market. Everyone saw Grayscale's selling and collectively withdrew their buying orders.

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From September 3rd to 4th, Bitcoin was hovering at 57,700, with almost no fluctuations.
Therefore, the game between long and short sides began to reach a balance, waiting for a new direction. One is waiting for the occurrence of bad news and good news, and the other is looking for a breakthrough point. The most ideal state is a sharp drop of 54,000 and then a sharp rise, breaking through the long orders near 57,000 and sweeping the stop loss.
The biggest disadvantage of a direct rise is that 57700 is the recent important support level, and there are a lot of bottom-fishing orders. If the stop loss is not swept, the rise will be a risky profit.

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On August 26, Bitcoin fell back to a maximum point of 63,300, which perfectly matched the support level of 63,000 in the Cognitive Society article yesterday.
The biggest feature of the 24 years is that the strength of Bitcoin's retracement is expected most of the time, but the decline of the altcoins is a surprise.
Bitcoin rose from 49,000 to 65,000, and fell back a few points, which is a strong consolidation. But the situation of the copycat is different. The decline of TON itself is not bad, but the market confidence has been hit hard.
Recently, the market has been bottoming out at the beginning of the month and rebounding at the end of the month, so be patient and wait for a sharp drop to make up for the losses. When the market rebounds strongly, reduce your position slightly near the cost.

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The highest point of Bitcoin rebound on August 23 was 62,200, which coincides with the pressure point of 62,000 in the article of Cognitive Society yesterday.
No update on August 22
On August 21, Bitcoin fell back to the lowest point of 58,500, which perfectly matched the support level of 58,500 in the Cognition Society article yesterday.
On August 20, Bitcoin fell back to the lowest point of 57,700, which perfectly matched the support level of 57,700 in the Cognition Society article yesterday.
The short-term suppression of Bitcoin at 62,200 still exists, but the cottage industry that everyone is concerned about is slowly recovering. The most noteworthy thing is that USDT has increased by 3 billion US dollars in seven days. Cognition Society repeatedly reminds us that the rise and fall of the market fundamentally requires incremental funds, and the game of stock is never a solution. The real incremental funds will not come until the end of September after the National Day, because September in the United States is 9.19, and the market needs time to react, so the National Day is an ideal time for cottage industry.

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Bitcoin's retracement to its lowest point of 59,500 on August 8 is a bit exaggeratedly strong.
In the context of Bitcoin ETF outflow, Bitcoin's high consolidation shows that the whales have strong bottom-fishing power below 60,000. If there is no major negative news, it is estimated that it will be difficult to fall below 54,500 in the short term.
Bitcoin daily line is still below the o axis. After consolidating at a high level, short-term direction selection, 59000 is the key. Hold 59000 and repeatedly rush to 63000. If it falls below 59000, 57000-55000 is a good entry position. The opportunity to encounter negative news around 50,000 is very good.
When the market is not good, we don't guess whether it will fall or rise first. We try to enter the market at a sharp drop, which is perfect.

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Bitcoin fell back to its lowest point of 49,000 on August 4.
After the liquidity providers withdrew their orders, the depth of the market began to have problems, especially the fact that several Ethereum market makers sold Ethereum and left the market, making the market crash unusually smooth.
Bitcoin 49,000 is definitely beyond the expectations of the cognitive society, because it is ridiculous that the support of 57,000 is so easily broken, the lowest point in 24 years and eight months.
BlackRock's super purchasing power should be able to maintain the situation. As long as there is no new major negative news, such as the United States really attacking Israel, Bitcoin should have a big rebound.

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There is a big difference between the highest rebound price of Bitcoin on July 29, 69,900, and the pressure point of 69,000 mentioned in yesterday’s article.
Bitcoin continues to hit new highs, repeatedly using the 12-hour top divergence to force a short squeeze.
The sharp drop in Bitcoin's price near 70,000 indicates that the selling pressure of spot prices is indeed great. The reason for the rebound is that Bitcoin's contracts are repeatedly squeezed out.
The key support levels of Bitcoin are 66,000 and 63,000. If it holds 66,000, it will repeatedly hit 69,000. If it falls below 66,000, it will see around 63,000.

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The highest point of Bitcoin's rebound on July 19 was 67,300, which coincides with the pressure point of 67,500 in yesterday's article.
Bitcoin's lowest point on July 18 was 63,200, which is consistent with yesterday's article's 63,100.
The highest point of Bitcoin's rebound on July 17 was 66,000, which coincides with the pressure point of 66,000 in yesterday's article.
The highest point of Bitcoin's rebound on July 16, 63,300, is far from the pressure point of 66,000 in yesterday's article.
Bitcoin consolidated around 67,000 on July 20.
The ratio of long and short positions of Bitcoin is consolidating around 1, indicating that the market is still betting on the highest point of Bitcoin's rebound. The selling pressure of Bitcoin spot and the contradiction of forced short positions in contracts are repeatedly tossed. The ideal situation is that if the positive stimulus of Ethereum spot ETF trading is at the end of the month, Bitcoin will quickly sprint to 73,000, and then fall all the way.

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Bitcoin hit 68,500 on July 22, which is close to its historical high. To say it is strong is an understatement.
Most of the positive news in the financial market is negative news, but the launch of Ethereum spot ETF is not negative news, because there will be continuous incremental funds entering the market. However, it should be noted that the Ethereum spot ETF is partially open on July 23, and Grayscale's 1 million Ethereums will be sold.
Therefore, Cognition Society believes that if Ethereum rises sharply on July 23, it is necessary to reduce positions a little, because Ethereum spot ETF will have to wait for BlackRock's transaction before a large increase in funds will enter the market.