旺财小福

BTC 现在还是按下降楔形的形态来看，短期碰到压力线后就一直震荡，上方抛压基本都消化得差不多了。

不过小级别走出了上升楔形，大概率会有一波回踩，低点估计会到 8.5 万 - 8.6 万区间，这也是我计划接多的位置，比上次判断的位置下移了一千点左右。主要是现在 BTC 走势稍弱，这么选也是想更稳妥些。

为啥选这个位置进场？一方面小级别上升楔形调整的低点就在这；另一方面是按黄金分割线第二段回踩位置判断的。而且现在价格上下插针，明显是用横盘代替下跌的走法，这种形态涨之前通常会先来一波诱空 —— 就是往下猛插一下再快速拉回，然后才会加速上涨。所以我打算等这波插针再进场接多，能接到的话，短期目标至少看到 9 万以上。

另外短期绝对不考虑做空，这个位置要是回踩幅度小，很可能直接就起飞了。所以只能等回踩接多，千万别做空。

ETH 短期已经冲破了下跌的趋势通道，虽然小级别走势出现背离，但价格并没跌，反而走出了看涨旗形的形态，所以短期还是看涨的。

接下来大概率就两种走法：第一种是直接涨上去，把这个看涨旗形的形态走完；第二种是先回踩一下 2930 附近，再开始加速上涨。不管走哪一种，短期趋势都是向上的，下一个目标可以盯着 3170-3200 这个区间。

手里还拿着多单的可以继续持有，没上车的朋友，等价格回踩到 2930-2900 区间的时候，就可以考虑进场做多了。

Just wait for today from 10:00 to 11:30, when the Bank of Japan will announce the interest rate results.
If the market shows a spike, I'm ready to take advantage of it.
After the announcement, there are likely three scenarios:
A spike down, followed by a rebound; a spike down, then a period of fluctuation before rebounding directly down; or a continuous decline after reaching the bottom.
What do you think it will be? The third scenario is not impossible, but I don't think the probability is high.
As for whether it will be the first or second scenario, it depends on the intensity of the spike after the announcement. A strong spike leans towards the first scenario, while a weak one might just be the second. Actually, as long as you believe in the first two trends, you can look for a rebound once it hits the target position; there's no need to try to catch the absolute lowest point!
Why am I willing to take the risk? Because I'm optimistic about the market in the first quarter of next year. If you don't believe in this market, then there's really no need to enter!

ETH's recent performance has been a bit weak, but from the K-line pattern, after the short-term fluctuations end, it is highly likely that there will be a wave of false bullish sentiment. Shorting now is not cost-effective; instead, one can enter long at the price range of 2800—2830 to profit from a rebound. The upper target is initially set at the 2930—2960 range, and once it reaches this position, I will close the long position and switch to shorting.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the movements in the past few days have been almost a template: first a sharp drop, followed by a rebound, then a continued decline. Now, there has been another wave of accelerated decline recently, and the smaller indicators need time to digest. It would be best to have a direct rebound; once the rebound is in place, I will signal to exit the long position. For now, this is the plan: first go long to profit from a wave, and when it goes up, switch to shorting.

The current situation of the MEME coin track is as follows:
First, let's talk about the trading platforms: the core pillar of the PUMP platform is Alon, but now we don't know whether Alon is alive or dead; BSC, Bonk, and Base have already formed a situation of tripartite confrontation.
Now looking at the leading MEME coins: Dogecoin is supported by a massive number of retail investors; the Shiba Inu community has long since given up and is no longer active; the Pepe coin community has completely lost its enthusiasm; only Bonk is still trying hard to break the current deadlock.
It is highly likely that something has really happened to Alon. If he gets arrested like the previous SBF, the decline of the PUMP platform is just a matter of time — without a soul figure, the platform has no real momentum.

My overall direction is bearish, which is different from the general view. In a bear market, no matter how much it rises, it will eventually fall back down. The position at 80,000 definitely won't hold. At least in the first half of next year, I dare not bottom fish for long-term investments; the moving average patterns have all deteriorated, so I can only engage in short-term trades.

The specific reasons are as follows:
Currently, Bitcoin's monthly chart has already formed a death cross, and there is no reason to expect a bull market to emerge. At least we have to wait for both the fast and slow lines to return to the vicinity of the zero axis before a major bull market can possibly start.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both at high levels right now; a decline is only a matter of time. How could Bitcoin possibly have an independent market trend?

There is no expectation for interest rate cuts next year; on the contrary, there may be interest rate hikes. In an environment without liquidity, what will drive the market up?

I have not yet seen any situation of institutions or exchanges collapsing. In the later stages of the last bull market, there were large institutions like Three Arrows Capital and FTX collapsing, and platforms like Huobi and Hobbit have also exited the market; we are still waiting for this wave of clearing.

This time Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to 80,000, a decline of about 36%. In the last bull market, Bitcoin fell from 69,000 to 44,000, also a decline of 36%; as a result, it directly fell to a major bottom of 15,800 later on, dropping another 63%.

This rebound in ETH is really weak. A few days ago, when it rebounded, the trend was much stronger than Bitcoin. As a result, last night, it fell without even touching 3000 USD. We didn't manage to enter the short position we had planned before. However, the market is very likely to fluctuate for a while next. As long as the small-level trend does not break the recent low, there is still a chance to push towards around 3050. So the short position we placed yesterday can continue to hold and wait for opportunities.

Analysis of Aster was just conducted yesterday, and today news emerged that CZ's position is trapped. In fact, compared to a rapid decline, this continuous downward trend is more distressing for investors.
Currently, market liquidity is at a low level, and coupled with the relatively high market value of Aster, a short-term further decline would instead benefit the subsequent market momentum. Based on trend predictions, this cryptocurrency is highly likely to dip to around 0.5.

I just chased the PTB on the rise list, and the current price is 0.00481.
This coin has a small market cap, and the trading volume is clearly increasing, showing potential for a rise.
I set a 10% stop loss to prevent too much loss, and the target is to first see the price of 0.007.
Let's all wait and see if PTB can rise!

The bearish flag pattern of Ethereum has basically completed. The first wave of decline is the 'flagpole', followed by sideways fluctuations forming the flag surface, and then a rapid decline begins. Many people were misled by the market yesterday, mistaking the flag surface for a consolidation zone, thinking it would rise and blindly buying long positions. In fact, I warned yesterday that this is a bearish pattern's trap for buyers; any rise would definitely come back down.
Sure enough, the market faked a breakout and immediately dropped. The low point of 2930 I predicted was calculated based on the decline of the first wave 'flagpole'. After the bearish flag pattern is established, the last wave of decline usually resembles the first wave.
Currently, the flag pattern's movement is nearing its end, but there are still no signs of a stop in the decline. From the 4-hour chart, the decline will continue, with two possible movements: either drop directly or rebound and then drop. I tend to favor the latter; shorting after a rebound is more stable, after all, a direct sharp drop can easily lead to a quick rebound. Additionally, there are non-farm payroll data tonight; even if the impact is not significant, if the data is positive, it may drive the price to rebound to the 3030-3050 range.
If you want to place an order to short, 3044 is a good position—this used to be the support at the lower edge of the flag pattern, now it has turned into resistance. If it drops again, the target can be seen in the 2730-2780 range.

Bitcoin previously rebounded to 14000, and is now starting its second bottoming attempt.
This round of bottoming is unlikely to drop below 80600, and instead will likely present a good opportunity for a wave of bottom fishing.
Moreover, this round of rebound can last until January, with the final price expected to reach 100000.

ZEC's one-hour chart has broken down from the wedge pattern and has completed a wave of correction. It has now stabilized at the support level and has produced a strong K-line signal, with a chance to rebound for a second test of the previous high point.
The 400 range is a very suitable position for going long, with a favorable risk-reward ratio. If it rebounds to around 462 and fails to break through the previous high, this position can be used to go short.

Pippin is similar to a single machine coin, continuously rising. This kind of coin is simply not worth shorting.
However, when it falls, it does so sharply, directly crashing down in one move. This is the way of the market makers: they secretly placed a lot of long positions at low levels, maintaining a very high level of control. As the price keeps rising, there will definitely be people unable to resist chasing the price up, and there is basically no selling pressure in the market, so they don't need to spend too much money to pump the price, which is why it remains so strong.

No matter how much the market fluctuates, when trading spot, just focus on the timing. No matter how complex the adjustment shape is, when the time comes, it still needs to rise.
Next week, the adjustment may end, and it will continue to rise. Before the time comes, one should be cautious when bottom-fishing.
This week, there's a key event: Japan is going to raise interest rates. I think there's no need to panic; if the market drops significantly because of the interest rate hike, it could actually be a good opportunity to bottom-fish.
As long as the position of 80600 is not broken, the previous targets of 103000 and 108000 still hold; even if it breaks, the overall upward trend hasn't changed, just the target price needs to be adjusted.
Just patiently wait for the opportunity to hold a large position in spot; this period is just right for practicing short-term and contract operations.

BTC once again performs a bullish trend, currently still operating within a parallel channel, and the structure has not been broken. This time the price rebounded near the 0.382 support level, and there is a high probability of continuing the channel's oscillating trend.

Pay close attention to the upper pressure zone around 94000, where selling pressure is strong, and we need to observe whether a strong breakout can occur; if the breakout is successful, the adjusted rebound is expected to test the key pressure at 98000. The short-term support below focuses on the low point of yesterday near 89200.

This round of the crypto cycle has an iron law: every time Bitcoin rises to a stage peak, it ultimately ends with the hype of MEME coins.
Conversely, if Bitcoin does not rebound, there will be no MEME coin market at all.
The logic is actually quite simple: Bitcoin keeps rising → everyone starts trading MEME coins → Bitcoin's rebound stops → the MEME market also ends
The AI-related market in January, the BONK market in June, and the BSC chain market in October all follow this pattern.
These three waves of MEME markets are all major liquidity feasts, happening about every 3-4 months.
In my view, the current sluggishness of Bitcoin is actually a good thing, indicating that the market in February is becoming increasingly worth the wait.
This kind of prolonged consolidation for several months is something we are already used to. As long as you don't hold onto the rigid mindset of "it's a bull market now" or "it's a bear market now" while trading, it will be very comfortable to operate.
Catch a wave of market to make a profit, then rest for a few months before waiting for the next wave, this is much better than staring at hourly K-lines every day and messing around!

Did the interest rate cut lead to a drop instead? 90k support is precarious, will breaking 85k lead to a drop to 80k?

After the benefits of the interest rate cut were realized, Bitcoin surged briefly before turning to decline, not even reaching the previously anticipated short entry price, and is currently testing the 90000 integer support level, which seems to be on the verge of breaking.

The rising parallel channel has not yet broken, and the direction of adjustment is unclear, but in previous instances, this type of channel ultimately broke down. Can this time be an exception?

Key support is currently around 85000; if this level cannot hold, the previous low of 80000 will no longer be considered safe, and the risk of breaking 80000 will significantly increase!

ETH has been incredible this time! It directly broke through the triangular pattern without any pullbacks and has surged upwards. The price has now reached the previously predicted high point of $3380-3400 for the main upward wave. Looking at this trend, it is highly likely that it will continue to rise.

Next, we can wait for the fourth wave pullback to get in and go long, expected to be in the range of $3130-3150, and once it reaches that point, we should decisively enter the market. The final wave of the upward movement should be strong, making it worthwhile to take a chance on the fifth wave rise. Of course, if the main upward wave continues to be strong and expands the overall increase, we can adjust according to the situation later. For now, let's wait for a pullback to go long and continue to be bullish.

On November 17th, I mentioned to everyone to pay more attention to the ANANAS31 coin.

Once the price dropped to the target range, I opened a 5x short position and have held it until now. Although the holding time isn't short, this wave of holding is really worth it!

The second phase market on BSC is getting harder to play!

It relies on accurately capturing Alpha, and coordinating contracts and spot trading to have a market, but most of the time, finding Alpha means hitting the peak, and not only is the upward space getting narrower, but the experience of holding positions is also getting worse.

In contrast, the MEME coins on Solana don't need the exchanges to drive the momentum. Take TROLL as an example; it relies entirely on the community's consensus, and its market cap can still reach hundreds of millions.

When can the MEME on BSC break free from its dependence on exchanges and truly rely on community consensus to support the market? That would be the true manifestation of on-chain power!