帝王说币

Recently, among my friends who arrived early to the background, eight out of ten said their mindset has collapsed. I'm not exaggerating; the prices of the top fifty small cryptocurrencies are even worse than after the black swan event in 2022. Many people look at the numbers in their accounts and have lost the courage to even open the market software.
Don't think that mainstream varieties can escape this. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even the SOL that was incredibly popular last year have all fallen back to the levels of December 2024. What does this mean? After more than half a year of turmoil, most people not only haven't made money but have also given back their previous floating profits, and even lost their principal.

Recently, the backend has been filled with questions about Japan's interest rate hikes: 'The market has been dropping for the past few days; when the official announcement comes, shouldn't it mean all the bad news has been priced in and it's time to rise?'
As someone who has closely followed three rounds of Japan's interest rate hike cycles, I can say this is definitely not the end; rather, it is the time to hold onto your chips tightly, as the real risks are just beginning to unfold.
I don't believe we should go back to old accounts; Japan's recent interest rate hikes have been nothing short of a copy-paste script: first, news leaks, and the market starts to hesitate and fall, which is capital fleeing in advance; by the time the official announcement comes, you can bet that the sell-off will definitely flood in; the worst part is in the one or two days after the announcement, there will be a sharp drop and a plunge, that 'needle' on the K-line chart can pierce one's heart, and I have witnessed this market behavior with my own eyes.

Does anyone understand this? Opening my phone, it's all posts saying 'Japan's Thursday interest rate hike, ETH, SOL are going to be halved', and some people are crying with old data from the last three rate hikes showing a 30% drop, saying 'Bitcoin is going to drop below 80,000', scaring new players to ask me overnight if they should cut losses and run?
Don't panic! After 8 years in the crypto world, I've seen 80 out of 100 'doomsday markets'. To be responsible: this time Japan's interest rate hike is a typical 'The Wolf is Coming', and it's the new players who are panicking; the old players have been waiting to pick up bargains!
First, understand: why can Japan's interest rate hike make the market panic like dogs?

“Bro, ETH has hit a new high again, should we rush in?” As soon as I opened my eyes in the morning, three messages from fans popped up. I smiled at the K-line chart; this is not a new high, it's clearly the last carnival before the ‘castle in the air’ collapses.
Having been in the circle for eight years, I can't say I can see through all the ups and downs of every project, but for ETH, I can confidently say it's ‘clear as day’. From the bull market frenzy in 2017 to the black swan crash in 2020, I've stumbled and also made enough profit to relax for half a year; my trading notes are filled in three notebooks.

"Bro, ETH has hit a new high again, should we jump in quickly?" As soon as I opened my eyes this morning, messages from three fans popped up. I looked at the K-line chart and smiled; this is not a new high, it's clearly the last revelry before the 'castle in the air' collapses.
After eight years in the circle, I can't say I can see through all the ups and downs of projects, but when it comes to ETH, I can confidently say 'it's clear as day.' From the bullish frenzy of 2017 to the black swan crash of 2020, I've stumbled and also made enough profit to lie flat for half a year; my trading notes have filled up three notebooks.

In the early hours of a certain day last November, I was staring at the ZEC price chart on the screen and almost spilled the goji berry water I had just brewed into the main case. The screenshots of the group's celebration were being sent faster than the candlestick chart, and the three-day doubling in price had many shouting 'the next thousandfold coin,' while my account balance was visibly shrinking into a joke.
As a veteran in the crypto circle for five years, I made a mistake that even a beginner would find elementary: I misread the candlestick chart. That long bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow looked to me like a signal of 'the main force luring in buyers before running away.' In a moment of excitement, I opened a short position with 10x leverage, and when I invested 10 units of principal, I had even chosen the color of the electric car in my shopping app.

"Woke up to find my account short a car" "Who held on last night? I cry first as a tribute" This morning, opening the market software, I estimate that many friends in the crypto circle feel colder than tap water in winter. The sudden drop at three in the morning swallowed up most of the gains that were hard-earned last week, and the comments are filled with curses against the 'dog farm controlling the market.' But as someone who has been watching the market for eight years, I must say: this time it is really not the traders' fault; the 'blood extractor' behind it is ten times harsher than the traders!
To understand this drop, you must first remember one word: liquidity. This thing is simply the 'live money' in the market. When there is more live money, the market has support; when the live money is withdrawn, not to mention Bitcoin, even gold has to kneel. The 'culprit' behind this withdrawal of live money is the U.S. Treasury auction, which has recently been an unreasonable 'blood extractor.'

Does anyone understand?! After five years of deepening the field of distributed storage, today I actually witnessed the once 'storage king' mess up a good hand of cards. The computing power dropped below 20EiB, and the miners in my live stream were collectively silent, feeling more frustrated than when they can't have dumplings during the New Year! This is not a simple pullback; the entire ecosystem is 'bleeding,' and the instigator is hiding in the glamorous foundation building.
First, here are some heart-wrenching data. Friends in the know will take a deep breath after reading: In the past 41 days, the entire network's computing power has decreased by 1.863EiB. Converting it into units that everyone is more familiar with, it's equivalent to 46.5PiB of storage nodes 'collectively lying flat' every day. The physical storage capacity shrank to 2.5EiB, and even the most basic CC data shrank by 0.15EiB, just like a strong man suddenly having his muscles and bones pulled away.

Brothers, while keeping an eye on the USDT proportion curve, I almost spat my coffee on the keyboard today. This thing swaying at a high level looks a lot like the old man squatting at the village entrance to watch the fun. It seems stable as an old dog, but in reality, it could slip away faster than anyone else at the slightest movement! What's even more exciting is that tonight's non-farm payroll data is going to stir things up, and on the 18th, there are two major "ultimate moves" waiting. For those holding chips, don't just stare at the market in a daze; this article will clearly outline the pitfalls and opportunities for you.
Let's talk about a harsh reality: recently, the "money vibe" in the market has changed. The data on the market share of stablecoins clearly shows that there is more cash-like assets in everyone's hands, while the actual chips for competition are decreasing. To put it simply, we are in a stalemate phase of "more cash, fewer chips." However, what is more concerning is not this, but the fact that USDT's proportion has been hovering at a high level for so long, showing signs of forming a top, which is eerily similar to the signals before last year's market turns.

Stop fixating on the K-line! A 'macro bomb' that is more intense than short-term fluctuations is on the way, and there is a high probability that the throne of the Federal Reserve chairman will welcome a 'crypto-friendly' big shot.
Having been in the crypto circle for eight years, I never say anything without basis. Recently, the data from the prediction market doesn't lie: the probability of Hassert taking over as chairman of the Federal Reserve has already surged ahead, and this is not just sentiment hype on Twitter, but a real shift in direction backed by cold hard cash. As someone who has experienced three bull and bear markets, I dare to slam the table and say: this signal is more effective than ten positive news items.

"The Nasdaq fell nearly 0.6%!" As soon as I opened the market software, a pop-up hit me in the face. Is someone already gripping their phone and sweating? Don't rush to clear out and run away; as someone who has been in the crypto scene for eight years, I can say that this kind of "traditional market bearish" drama is precisely the opening bell for a new plot.
Every time the US stock market trembles, a newbie asks, "Is it going to crash?" But we need to understand one logic: traditional financial capital never disappears into thin air; it is just looking for safer exits. And now, the signals of these capital flows are shining as bright as neon lights.

The apples from last Christmas Eve haven't warmed up yet, and my hand staring at the phone screen has already gone cold. The screen is filled with red warnings like a glowing branding iron, and the 800,000 principal has evaporated to only 3,300 yuan, not even enough to buy Christmas gifts for the kids. My wife brought me hot soup, without scolding or complaining, just saying: 'How about we uninstall the software and find a 9-to-5 job?' That night I stared at the ceiling until dawn, not because I felt sorry for the money, but because I suddenly woke up and scolded myself: previously charging around the market wasn't being a trader, it was just a reckless person holding cash like a torch.
Now my account balance finally matches the three words 'analyst'. The seven-digit balance was not achieved through insider information, nor did I believe in the nonsense of 'doubling overnight', relying solely on a survival philosophy of 'the more timid, the more profit'. If you have ever been ground into the dirt by the market, or lost sleep over volatility, today's heartfelt words are more useful than any candlestick tutorial.

Brothers, is this wave of interest rate hikes making your scalp tingle?
Yesterday, I was still shouting in the comments, 'The rebound is a short-selling opportunity to make easy money.' Today, looking at the liquidation data across the internet, within 24 hours, 188,000 people were liquidated, and 650 million US dollars vanished into thin air, with long positions making up 577 million and short positions only about 73 million. With this data laid out, who still dares to say this decline was 'unexpected'? In a clearly bearish market, those who insist on going long can only say they haven't paid enough tuition.
Let's talk about Bitcoin first. This wave of decline is not just random fluctuations, but rather an accelerated drop after breaking the upward wedge. The key support was easily broken without any consideration. Yesterday's rebound that surged to 90,000, I immediately determined it was a trap to lure in buyers, and sure enough, the pullback was faster than a rabbit. Now the short-term indicators seem to show signs of a short squeeze and a low-level golden cross, but don't dream too much; the ceiling for the rebound space is already locked in. The strong might only touch 88,000, while the weak struggle at 87,000.

When I am awakened by the notification of the market software at three in the morning, I always think of that summer in 2017, filled with the aroma of instant noodles. At that time, I didn't know that the words 'floating profit' could be more intoxicating than the chilled beer from the big stall downstairs, and more piercing than tap water in the cold winter.
As an old hand who survived the 'Shanzhai coin carnival night,' I will never forget the project called Ada. At that time, it was only a few cents each, and I bought quite a few with the mindset of 'even if I lose, it's just the price of a hot pot meal.' Looking back now, that was not buying an asset; it was simply stepping on dog shit and scratching a lottery ticket.

Don't believe in 'get rich quick while sleeping' anymore! I used 8 years of real money to validate: those who flaunt their accounts at three in the morning are either promoters or newbies who haven't experienced a 'pig butchering' scam yet. My story starts in the summer of 2017 when even the aunties were discussing candlestick charts.
That year's market was ridiculously crazy, mainstream coins weren't satisfying enough, and various newly launched tokens were like wild horses running free. I scrutinized the market for a week, and ultimately made a heavy investment in ADA, not because I heard so-called 'insider news', but because its technical white paper logic was solid enough. Starting from $0.03, I built my position in three batches, nearly all my spare cash went in, and looking back now, that courage was half vision and half recklessness.

Family, who understands? The panic sentiment has directly dropped to 10. This market is as fragile as a freshly baked soufflé, afraid it might collapse with just a touch. The main force's recent wash-out operation can be described as 'textbook level', and retail investors are scared, clutching their wallets tightly, afraid that buying will make them 'the bag holder'. But the core issue arises: if the main force continues to push down, can they really pick up more bargains? Will someone suddenly emerge to 'snatch the food'?
First, let's look at the big pancake ($BTC ) that everyone is most concerned about. Last night, it once fell below the 85000 mark, and I thought it was going to start a 'free fall', but it stubbornly steadied and rebounded, reaching a high of 88000. Here, I must emphasize my judgment from yesterday; there is only a 10000 point buffer left until we reach the cost line of MicroStrategy. Stop dreaming about buying at the absolute lowest point; there is no 'perfect bottom-fishing' holy grail in the market. By the time you see a clear signal, you have already missed the best entry opportunity. Instead of being anxious amidst the noise, it’s better to focus on the movements of core institutions, as this is the key to navigating through the fluctuations.

Woken up at three in the morning by fans' panic messages: "Teacher! The yen interest rate hike is coming, should I clear my position?" I flipped through the K-line chart and almost laughed out loud, this batch of retail investors still hasn't seen through the tricks of the big players, the script for a bull market is almost written, yet they are always scared off by short-term fluctuations. Today, let's get to the essence: the yen interest rate hike is a "paper tiger," while the actions of the Federal Reserve are the real "money printing machine switch."
Let's first discuss the yen interest rate hike that is making everyone restless. The recent moves from the Bank of Japan seem like they are about to trigger a global financial nuclear bomb. But old fans know my judgment: this wave of bad news has long been chewed up and digested by the market. Since Ueda Kazuo hinted at an interest rate hike in December, the "Mrs. Watanabe" currency carry trade closing actions have not stopped, and now the capital outflow from Bitcoin ETFs is nearing its peak. To take a step back, even if the rate hike is really announced on the 19th, at most it will just be a scare tactic to the leveraged players, just like when the Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points last year, which caused a drop for half a day only to turn around and hit a new high. Remember: when bad news is exhausted, it becomes good news; those who are shouting to escape now are likely to be the potential retail investors washed out.

The text message at 3 a.m. said, 'Your account has triggered a forced liquidation, remaining available funds 0.03 mainstream coins,' pulling me from my dreams into an ice cellar. This is not someone else's story; it was May 2022, where I personally witnessed an old fan go from being spirited to breaking down in tears. As an analyst immersed in the crypto market for 6 years, after that day, I told everyone: Don't treat the crypto circle as a casino; it's ten times harsher than a casino, and there isn't even a chance to break even.
The protagonist of the story, Old Yang, was a complete 'believer' at that time. In the early 2022 market, he made a lot of money by holding popular cryptocurrencies and immediately invested his entire 1 million principal into the then 'star project' LUNA, holding 10,000 coins and shouting every day in the community, 'Target doubled.' I repeatedly reminded during the live broadcast, 'Algorithmic stablecoins carry extremely high risks,' and he privately replied to me, 'Bro, you are too conservative, the project owner Do Kwon definitely has a backup.'

I just finished digging through the policy draft from early morning, and I even forgot to drink my coffee. The 'policy roller coaster' in the crypto circle has once again surged to trending!
Hello everyone, I am Old K, who has been deeply involved in the crypto market for 6 years. I was awakened at 2 a.m. by messages from fans asking, 'Is the U.S. policy really going to be relaxed?' 'Is it still time to go all in now?' Opening the market software, it was indeed a sea of red and enthusiasm, with many newbies in the community shouting 'full position', that level of excitement was even more than when I first bought mainstream coins.
First, the conclusion: this wave of news is indeed a 'warm breeze', but don't mistake the warm breeze for a typhoon. The signal released by the U.S. regulatory authorities this time is essentially a reassurance for institutional funds, not a 'money-picking license' for retail investors. I have seen too many people fall into the trap of 'policy benefits = easy money', those who chased high when regulations were loosened in 2021 and got stuck, and those who didn't run before the tightening of policies in 2022, all of them treated the news as a divine decree.

Eight years ago, the financial mogul who called Bitcoin a “fraud” is now diving into blockchain with $4 trillion in assets. JPMorgan's recent move has played out the “true fragrance law” in a top-tier Wall Street version. When a giant managing assets equivalent to half the GDP of a small country slams down a “private feast on the chain” on Ethereum, this is not a trial run; it’s pressing the accelerator for the entire industry.
First, let me highlight for friends who are unclear: JPMorgan has created a chain-based fund called MONY, which is essentially the “Wall Street version of Yu'ebao,” but the threshold is so high that it can shock the wallets of ordinary people. Individuals need to have a $5 million asset proof to participate, and institutions require a minimum of $25 million, with even a single purchase needing to fork out $1 million. This is not wealth management; it is clearly a “blockchain club admission ticket” for super-rich investors.