欧鹏

No super commission bound 【Binance old users】
You can rebind my invitation code 【77VIP】 permanent 20% commission
Bind🔗: www.bsmkweb.cc/activity/referral/bind-ref
After binding is complete, contact me to join my small group

Hong Kong AI application sector gains strength. Zhipu (02513.HK) rises more than 4%, with $ZHIPU and $MINIMAX up over 4%, while Tencent Literature, MiniMax, and other stocks also move up.
Recently, volatility in the AI hardware supply chain has increased. More high-elasticity areas such as storage and optical modules have begun to bear pressure from profit-taking, so some funds naturally rotate toward the “application layer.” However, the logic inside this sector is not the same across all stocks. Zhipu focuses more on models and API capabilities, while MiniMax is more oriented toward end-user AI applications and overseas users. Tencent Literature is tied to content IP and AI content creation tools, and WeRide and Pony.ai correspond to autonomous driving and robotaxi scenarios. But the biggest issue with AI application stocks is that their business models are still in the validation stage: model-calling costs, user retention, paid conversion, regulatory compliance, and the rollout speed of autonomous driving—all of these can affect valuation stability.

After a relatively calm start to the summer, sentiment in the gold market is clearly heating up. Exceptionally strong bullish momentum has pushed the gold price through the consolidation range it had been trading in for the past two months. Over the past week, gold has surged by nearly $300, with drivers coming from one disappointing U.S. labor-market report after another.
Gold logged its best week since January.

Looking back, this rally began on Tuesday, when the U.S. Department of Labor reported a month-over-month decline in June job openings, highlighting a cooling labor market. Gold then briefly tested the initial resistance level around $4,100. The following ADP data also missed expectations. On Wednesday, ADP reported that the U.S. added only 44,000 jobs in July in the private sector, below economists’ prior estimate of about 65,000. Gold prices then broke above $4,200 per ounce.

By Friday, the uptrend accelerated further. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that in July, the U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs, while economists had expected a gain of 85,000. This marked the second instance this year of contraction in U.S. employment levels.

As cracks in the labor market gradually became more evident, the market began dialing back pricing for potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. The gold price then broke through the $4,300 per ounce mark. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now assigns a probability of below 50% for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September. Before the Friday data release, the market expected the odds of a rate hike to be close to 60%.
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, said the U.S. employment report confirms that the weakness in the labor market is significantly worse than what recent headlines have suggested. Even though the unemployment rate has fallen, it’s because more people have exited the labor force. This substantially reduces the pressure for the Fed to raise rates—or at least, it adds pressure from the opposite direction. The bottom in gold has been formed.$XAUT

In the previous big bear market, after BTC completed a bottom wick in June 2022, it didn’t immediately reverse. Instead, it traded sideways at low levels for nearly 300 days, until 2023 when it gradually emerged from the bear market and re-entered a range-bound upward cycle.

And in this round, BTC also saw a clear bottom wick in June. So what’s really worth watching next may not be whether it can rebound right away in the short term, but whether BTC stops falling below $60,000, and then again uses around 300 days to complete base building and trend repair.

If the time structure is indeed close to the last cycle, then around the first quarter of 2027 could become a very important time window for the end of this bear market.

Of course, time can only serve as a reference. What truly confirms that a bear market has ended is that the price regains the long-term moving averages and allows the long-term trend to turn from down to up again.

History won’t simply repeat itself, but market cycles are often more regular than we think.
$BTC

The one numbered 31 is the view I shared: $HYPE and $ZEC , bullish.
HYPE surged and then pulled back. Meanwhile, ZEC rose from 467 to 512 today and is consolidating. If next week brings favorable news, I think these two could move up for a wave. Of course, if they break below the cost band, cut losses and exit.

Below is a list of key events next week:
Monday
Bank of Japan releases an excerpt of deliberation opinions from the July monetary policy meeting

Tuesday
U.S. ADP employment change for the week ended July 25

Wednesday
CoreWeave (CRWV) earnings conference call at 5:00 a.m. (UTC+8) (after the close of U.S. markets on Tuesday)
U.S. July CPI and core CPI
U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ended August 7

Thursday
Cisco (CSCO) earnings conference call at 4:30 a.m. (UTC+8) (after the close of U.S. markets on Wednesday)
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended August 8, and U.S. July PPI
Remarks by 2026 FOMC voting members and Cleveland Fed President M. H. Barkin
Remarks by 2027 FOMC voting members and Richmond Fed President Barkin on the economic outlook

Friday
Applied Materials (AMAT) earnings conference call at 4:30 a.m. (UTC+8) (after the close of U.S. markets on Thursday)
U.S. July retail sales (monthly)
U.S. August preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, preliminary one-year inflation expectations, and June business inventories (monthly)
$CRWV $CSCO $AMAT

If Bitcoin $BTC no longer falls below $60,000, then this TD oversold signal in the monthly cycle is the bottom of a bear market.

“A “bad” and “how bad” are two different things. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, but government employment dragged it down—accounting for over 70%‼️ In July, actual U.S. nonfarm employment decreased by 23,000, far worse than the market expectation of an increase of about 85,000. However, after further breakdown, it turns out that this weakness in employment has not broadly spread to the private sector. Government employment fell by 53,000 in the month, with local governments down by 57,000—one of the biggest drags this month. Leisure and hospitality employment fell by 40,000 as well, showing a clear downturn, possibly reflecting temporary job exits after large events ended. By contrast, most core private sectors still maintained positive growth, with professional and business services, education and healthcare, and construction all continuing to add jobs.
Therefore, this nonfarm report looks more like concentrated drag from the public sector and certain service industries on the aggregate total, rather than a widespread layoff in the corporate sector. Meanwhile, the July unemployment rate, unrounded, was 4.09%, slightly better than market expectations—also indicating that the labor market is still in a state of “hiring cooling off, but layoffs have not yet clearly spread.”
In addition, May and June nonfarm data were both revised down consecutively, continuing the recent pattern of employment data revisions tending to be larger than expected. Overall, the market’s immediate interpretation of “-23k” as a broad-based employment deterioration may be a bit aggressive. In the short term, the data still supports expectations for further Fed rate hikes, benefiting U.S. Treasuries and gold. But in the medium term, what truly needs to be watched is whether the weakness in employment further spreads from government and specific service industries into core private sectors such as manufacturing, professional services, and construction. $

Target Brother $BTC Bullish 🚀 In fact, whether it’s bullish or not, the cost-effectiveness of going short is already very low.

There are 15 minutes until the Non-Farm Payrolls are released. The market needs a shot of confidence 💉. If you’re considering a long position, a bounce from the bottom could be a good idea—$BTC . However, I opened a long position at $ZEC $HYPE . Bullish 🚀. I won’t go live tonight.

BTC daily line: In the past three days, there has been no effective break below the 20-day moving average. Today, after regaining and stabilizing above it, rebound signs have already appeared. If this level can continue to hold, and combined with positive catalysts, it’s not out of the question that a squeeze move could unfold.
Two key upward levels to watch: first the 120-day moving average, then the area around the 200-day moving average.
$BTC

After entering August, the “catalysts” in the tech sector are concentrated: AI model launches, chip conferences, big tech earnings reports, and hardware new products will take the stage one after another. This may affect the performance of the technology sector—please stay alert.
$NVDA $GOOGL $BTC

SK Hynix shares plunge 10% $SKHY SK Hynix’s stock price has crashed, with the apparent trigger being a sentiment contagion sparked by guidance from a U.S. storage giant that triggered fears of “disaster.” But underneath lies the market’s deep concern about an inflection point in the memory cycle. SK Hynix chose to dilute its equity through a U.S. IPO at the industry’s peak boom—something some investors see as a signal of “selling at high levels.” Combined with concerns about supply ramp-up as Chinese makers such as CXMT increase production, the market is re-pricing the sustainability of memory industry momentum. The core contradiction is the stage mismatch between aggressive investment in the AI upstream and the downstream commercialization and monetization.

The synchronized weakening in Samsung Electronics ($SAMSUNG ) and SK Hynix ($SKHY ) reflects that market disagreement over the persistence of storage-sector business momentum is still intensifying. Goldman Sachs’ bullish assessment represents the long-term industrial logic, but in the short term, the stock price remains suppressed by sentiment-driven transmission from the U.S. stock “storage blowup.” The key points to watch next are whether major memory makers can provide positive guidance on capacity and pricing, and whether demand for AI storage such as HBM can continue to exceed expectations. These factors will determine whether the two storage leaders can stabilize and drive an index rebound.

$MINIMAX surged more than 15%, $ZHIPU surged more than 9%‼️
Today’s rebound in the AI sector was driven by a wave of concentrated upgrades from investment banks. MINIMAX and Zhipu previously underwent major adjustments due to unlocks and share placements. After their stock prices pulled back to interim lows, multiple investment banks’ positive ratings provided a sentiment catalyst. Goldman Sachs raised its revenue outlook, indicating that the market’s understanding of China’s AI commercialization and monetization is shifting from “burning cash” toward realizing “scalable revenue at scale.”
The sustainability of the next leg of the market will depend on the actual pace at which AI applications (Agents, API revenues) ramp up, as well as whether there are more positive performance signals. The current move is more of a valuation repair catalyzed by institutional rating upgrades.

Why did gold prices suddenly surge upward? The main factors are as follows: The latest released U.S. economic data sent the market mixed macro signals. In July, private-sector employment in the U.S. increased by 44,000, below the market expectation of 75,000 and also below the 95,000 figure after June’s revision; meanwhile, the year-over-year wage growth rate for retained employees remained at 4.4%. In July, U.S. services activity continued to expand. The ISM Services PMI came in at 54.1, with the Business Activity Index at 59.1 and the New Orders Index at 57.2, but the Employment Index fell back into contraction territory, recording 47.4. This set of data supported gold by weakening market pricing for aggressive Fed rate hikes. However, the services activity and prices components remained strong, meaning the market has not fully abandoned the Fed’s narrative about inflation risks.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical variable affecting gold, crude oil, and risk assets. Iran and Oman said they have reached agreement on the coordinates for a proposed shipping route. U.S. officials have also hinted that a temporary agreement may be close to being finalized. The current obstacles are still concentrated in political and practical execution. Iran’s reopening of the strait is tied to the U.S. lifting its maritime blockade of Iranian ports, while Washington refuses any arrangement that grants Tehran the right to charge fees, or that gives it excessive control over ships sailing to the Gulf region. On Wednesday, the market’s reaction to this news was mainly reflected in easing pressure in the oil market rather than a full unwind of geopolitical risk premia. Expectations of an agreement may cap upside oil prices, but because any arrangement could be quite fragile, gold still receives support.
The joint intervention by the U.S. and Japan to bolster the yen further increased uncertainty in the FX market, providing another layer of support for gold. The coordinated buying of the yen pushed USD/JPY down from above 163 to below 160, easing one source of stress in global foreign exchange markets. For gold, the impact is somewhat complex, but overall it is modestly positive in the short term. A stronger yen and a weaker dollar improve the mechanical transmission between the two; at the same time, the U.S.’s involvement in Japan’s yen defense also raises questions in the market about liquidity pressure on foreign-exchange reserves and the stability of the broader U.S. dollar system.
$XAU

$XAU I woke up and saw it was already 4300—gold is going crazy!🚀🚀🚀

Gold $XAU has risen sharply, with the price closing above the 20-day moving average.

$BNB available stock of 599, worth holding.

The U.S. lifted Iran-related sanctions
$BTC $HYPE $ZEC took off🚀🚀🚀