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Nobel Prize-winning economist Eugene F. Fama predicts the collapse of Bitcoin, estimating its chances of survival as nearly zero and dismissing it as worthless.

Nobel Economist Claims Bitcoin’s Collapse Is Almost Certain
Eugene F. Fama, a Nobel laureate renowned for his work on asset pricing and the efficient market hypothesis, believes Bitcoin will ultimately become worthless.
During an interview on the Capitalisn’t podcast, Fama was asked about the likelihood of Bitcoin plummeting to zero within the next decade. He responded, “I would say it’s close to certain. I still believe in monetary theory, though. I could be wrong.” When discussing the idea of making Bitcoin a strategic reserve—a move some believe could boost its value—Fama issued a warning:
“It might have the opposite effect. If the government gets involved, they could drive its value to zero immediately.”
The Nobel laureate expressed deep skepticism about the long-term viability of cryptocurrencies, arguing that economic theory suggests they cannot endure. He pointed to Bitcoin’s extreme volatility as a fundamental flaw, stating, “Everything we know about monetary theory indicates it shouldn’t survive.”
Fama also rejected comparisons between Bitcoin and gold, emphasizing, “It’s only digital gold if it has a use. If it doesn’t have a use, it’s just paper—no, not even paper, it’s air.”
His skepticism stems from Bitcoin’s reliance on speculation rather than intrinsic value. He noted that with a fixed supply, its price is entirely driven by demand, making it inherently unstable. “People don’t want to conduct business in something that could bankrupt them due to its value fluctuations,” he explained. Fama argued that Bitcoin cannot replace traditional currency because financial assets must serve a practical purpose to maintain value.
When asked if Bitcoin is a bubble, Fama refrained from making a definitive prediction. “I can’t predict when it will burst. I hope it does, but I can’t say for sure,” he said. The economist warned that if Bitcoin continues to hold value, it could challenge fundamental economic theories, concluding:
“I hope it collapses because if it doesn’t, we’ll have to rethink monetary theory from scratch.”

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