Murphy
17年老韭菜；研究链上数据和宏观情绪相结合，构建自己的交易思维。保持谨慎乐观 | X: @Murphychen888
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If it weren't for receiving a gift from Binance, I would really have forgotten today is Valentine's Day... In the crypto world, do we still have true love?
In 2020, I bought 10,000 BNB to participate in DeFi mining, but after the event ended, I resolutely broke up with her.
Until one day, when she appeared in front of me again, her value had already exceeded $1,000.
There used to be a sincere love in front of me, but I didn't cherish it. Only after losing it did I regret it, and there is nothing more painful in the world than this...
However, today she sent me roses, could this lingering fragrance be hinting that I can have another chance?
The gray trajectory and the vast sky have become the past. This time, I want to be your true lover!
In 2020, I bought 10,000 BNB to participate in DeFi mining, but after the event ended, I resolutely broke up with her.
Until one day, when she appeared in front of me again, her value had already exceeded $1,000.
There used to be a sincere love in front of me, but I didn't cherish it. Only after losing it did I regret it, and there is nothing more painful in the world than this...
However, today she sent me roses, could this lingering fragrance be hinting that I can have another chance?
The gray trajectory and the vast sky have become the past. This time, I want to be your true lover!
The support of the dual-anchor structure of URPD has been tested for its effectiveness during multiple rounds of market corrections, including the previous cycle's drop to $15,000 in the bear bottom range.
However, this time during the correction, upon entering the $72,000-$80,000 range — the midpoint of the dual-anchor structure — there was no significant support effect formed. The price was instantly breached, indicating that the expected demand intervention did not occur here.
I personally deduce that there may be two possible reasons:
1. Extreme market panic;
2. An unexpected event occurred, but has not been exposed.
Regardless, from the current chip structure, there is no significant support structure below the current price. Although there is a small amount of supplementation in the gap of $72,000-$80,000, it is still far from enough; this also leaves a foreshadowing for the subsequent plot.
For example, on a future day, if BTC returns to the $87,000-$92,000 range, due to the numerous chips present, there will be resistance. When the price corrects, as long as confidence is restored, there will still be a support effect of the dual-anchor structure in the $72,000-$80,000 range.
However, this time during the correction, upon entering the $72,000-$80,000 range — the midpoint of the dual-anchor structure — there was no significant support effect formed. The price was instantly breached, indicating that the expected demand intervention did not occur here.
I personally deduce that there may be two possible reasons:
1. Extreme market panic;
2. An unexpected event occurred, but has not been exposed.
Regardless, from the current chip structure, there is no significant support structure below the current price. Although there is a small amount of supplementation in the gap of $72,000-$80,000, it is still far from enough; this also leaves a foreshadowing for the subsequent plot.
For example, on a future day, if BTC returns to the $87,000-$92,000 range, due to the numerous chips present, there will be resistance. When the price corrects, as long as confidence is restored, there will still be a support effect of the dual-anchor structure in the $72,000-$80,000 range.
Chinese martial arts, vast and profound
Macro School, K-line School, On-chain School, Metaphysics Society, Kezhou Gang....
Macro disciples: Broad-minded, with the greatest overall perspective;
K-line masters: Meticulously refined techniques, with the sharpest insight;
On-chain scholars: Rigorous logical reasoning is a unique skill.
Metaphysics and Kezhou: Though regarded as "evil practices," they can stimulate adrenaline, instantly enhancing strength and realm.
Although various schools often have disputes, they ultimately lead to the same goal;
This is the Jianghu......
The stone from other hills can be used to polish jade;
There is always a martial art worth dedicating your life to;
The day you achieve success is the day your name shakes the world!
Macro School, K-line School, On-chain School, Metaphysics Society, Kezhou Gang....
Macro disciples: Broad-minded, with the greatest overall perspective;
K-line masters: Meticulously refined techniques, with the sharpest insight;
On-chain scholars: Rigorous logical reasoning is a unique skill.
Metaphysics and Kezhou: Though regarded as "evil practices," they can stimulate adrenaline, instantly enhancing strength and realm.
Although various schools often have disputes, they ultimately lead to the same goal;
This is the Jianghu......
The stone from other hills can be used to polish jade;
There is always a martial art worth dedicating your life to;
The day you achieve success is the day your name shakes the world!
Binance's SAFU fund has completed its promised $1 billion BTC purchase, with the latest transaction yesterday acquiring 4,545 BTC, bringing the fund's total holdings to 15,000 BTC. This purchase was executed gradually amidst a sustained decline in BTC prices and a severe lack of market confidence.
The initial high was $77,000, with the final transaction price around $66,000, resulting in an average cost of approximately $69,200. Binance has explicitly stated that it will continue to add to its position if SAFU's market capitalization falls below a certain threshold.
Essentially, this is not a trading activity, but a risk management strategy: converting existing stablecoin reserves into BTC as a long-term reserve asset while reducing exposure to the risks associated with stablecoin issuance.
The message it conveys is that "as the world's largest exchange, Binance believes Bitcoin is the most robust long-term value asset," which has a positive guiding effect and serves as an endorsement of confidence in an environment of retail investor fear and shrinking trading volume.
Seeing CZ's tweet today, "I might be wrong, but I feel this might ultimately benefit the SAFU fund," I believe Binance's decision to buy BTC with long-term funds at this time is absolutely wise.
Just like these past few days, our analysis of various data points—whether it's <10y_RP, CVDD, massive EARL panic selling, or the increasing holdings of super whales—all point to the same conclusion:
That is, although we may not have reached the absolute bottom of the deep bear market yet, buying BTC at the current price and holding it until the next round, I believe, will not only bring some "benefits," but should at least offer a 100%, or even 200% expected profit margin.
Clearly, CZ's statement is rather conservative. Personally, I think $1 billion is at most an "appetizer" for Binance. They should increase investment and strive to expand the scale tenfold—preparing $10 billion to continue buying BTC in the next price range. I believe that in a few years, this will become another masterpiece for Binance!
The initial high was $77,000, with the final transaction price around $66,000, resulting in an average cost of approximately $69,200. Binance has explicitly stated that it will continue to add to its position if SAFU's market capitalization falls below a certain threshold.
Essentially, this is not a trading activity, but a risk management strategy: converting existing stablecoin reserves into BTC as a long-term reserve asset while reducing exposure to the risks associated with stablecoin issuance.
The message it conveys is that "as the world's largest exchange, Binance believes Bitcoin is the most robust long-term value asset," which has a positive guiding effect and serves as an endorsement of confidence in an environment of retail investor fear and shrinking trading volume.
Seeing CZ's tweet today, "I might be wrong, but I feel this might ultimately benefit the SAFU fund," I believe Binance's decision to buy BTC with long-term funds at this time is absolutely wise.
Just like these past few days, our analysis of various data points—whether it's <10y_RP, CVDD, massive EARL panic selling, or the increasing holdings of super whales—all point to the same conclusion:
That is, although we may not have reached the absolute bottom of the deep bear market yet, buying BTC at the current price and holding it until the next round, I believe, will not only bring some "benefits," but should at least offer a 100%, or even 200% expected profit margin.
Clearly, CZ's statement is rather conservative. Personally, I think $1 billion is at most an "appetizer" for Binance. They should increase investment and strive to expand the scale tenfold—preparing $10 billion to continue buying BTC in the next price range. I believe that in a few years, this will become another masterpiece for Binance!
The cold winter has arrived, are you ready? — The psychological limit of $65,000 and the lifeline
The realized price (Realized Price, RP) calculation is based on the last price when it was moved on-chain, so it is also considered the average cost basis of Bitcoin across the entire chain. However, in reality, this value has a certain degree of distortion.
Due to a large number of ancient coins either being long-term held or lost, it has severely lowered the 'average cost' we observe.
Currently, the number of BTC held for over 10 years is 3,443,000, with an average cost basis of only $106.7 (Figures 1 and 2). Although the average cost for those held for over 5-7 years is also quite low, it is clearly closer to the 'true' value in comparison.
Due to a large number of ancient coins either being long-term held or lost, it has severely lowered the 'average cost' we observe.
Currently, the number of BTC held for over 10 years is 3,443,000, with an average cost basis of only $106.7 (Figures 1 and 2). Although the average cost for those held for over 5-7 years is also quite low, it is clearly closer to the 'true' value in comparison.
The Never-Failing On-Chain Indicator CVDD
On January 27, 2023, I wrote a tweet — the never-failing on-chain data indicators, hoping to explain the established $BTC bear bottom pattern from multiple angles. Looking back now, although the textual descriptions and pattern annotations seem a bit rough and immature, the content described in the text is still valid to this day.
For example: [Never-Failing] On-Chain Data Indicator Five: CVDD; its principle has been introduced on many data platforms, so I won't elaborate here (interested friends can check it out themselves).
Its biggest feature is that it 'never retraces', meaning today's CVDD is always higher than yesterday's. From 2010 to 2026, the price of BTC has been above CVDD every single day; it may come infinitely close at the bear market bottom but has never dropped below. Including in November 2022 $BTC the lowest was $15,800, while at that time CVDD was $14,800.
For example: [Never-Failing] On-Chain Data Indicator Five: CVDD; its principle has been introduced on many data platforms, so I won't elaborate here (interested friends can check it out themselves).
Its biggest feature is that it 'never retraces', meaning today's CVDD is always higher than yesterday's. From 2010 to 2026, the price of BTC has been above CVDD every single day; it may come infinitely close at the bear market bottom but has never dropped below. Including in November 2022 $BTC the lowest was $15,800, while at that time CVDD was $14,800.
The cycle has accelerated!
If you are still using past experiences to "engrave" that this bear market bottom will appear in Q4 2026, then the metaphysical indicator based on the "4-year bull-bear cycle theory" — "Three Lines Convergence" tells us: the cycle is speeding up.
As of February 5, the MVRV hit the lowest point of this cycle at 1.13, which is 2 months and 4 months earlier compared to the same positions in the 2016 cycle (blue line) and the 2020 cycle (green line), respectively.
At this pace, it is very likely that the bottom of this cycle will appear earlier in Q2 or Q3. As for metaphysics, I think you can't believe it completely, nor can you completely disbelieve it; it's always good to have some psychological preparation.
If you are still using past experiences to "engrave" that this bear market bottom will appear in Q4 2026, then the metaphysical indicator based on the "4-year bull-bear cycle theory" — "Three Lines Convergence" tells us: the cycle is speeding up.
As of February 5, the MVRV hit the lowest point of this cycle at 1.13, which is 2 months and 4 months earlier compared to the same positions in the 2016 cycle (blue line) and the 2020 cycle (green line), respectively.
At this pace, it is very likely that the bottom of this cycle will appear earlier in Q2 or Q3. As for metaphysics, I think you can't believe it completely, nor can you completely disbelieve it; it's always good to have some psychological preparation.
The average relative unrealized loss of short-term holders (STH-RUL) has exceeded 5 standard deviations (purple line), which is a hallmark signal of extreme panic!
This is the first occurrence in this cycle, but it is the 11th time in the past 4 cycles, meaning it appears on average 3 times per cycle.
It seems like 'third time's the charm'; but logically speaking, any establishment of a bear bottom often occurs after bulls have completely surrendered hope, and the market unexpectedly welcomes new hope — if it doesn't work once, then try again.
Now, BTC has pulled back 50% from its peak, and it may not need to drop another 50% to trigger the next STH-RUL spike, but one thing is certain: this should not be the only occurrence before the bear bottom is established.
This is also why I believe that even though BTC is relatively close to the bear bottom in 'space', it is still clearly not enough in 'time'.
This is the first occurrence in this cycle, but it is the 11th time in the past 4 cycles, meaning it appears on average 3 times per cycle.
It seems like 'third time's the charm'; but logically speaking, any establishment of a bear bottom often occurs after bulls have completely surrendered hope, and the market unexpectedly welcomes new hope — if it doesn't work once, then try again.
Now, BTC has pulled back 50% from its peak, and it may not need to drop another 50% to trigger the next STH-RUL spike, but one thing is certain: this should not be the only occurrence before the bear bottom is established.
This is also why I believe that even though BTC is relatively close to the bear bottom in 'space', it is still clearly not enough in 'time'.
Sure enough, the allure of BTC at $60,000-$70,000 has begun to show for some large funds.
On-chain data shows that the whale group holding 10,000-100,000 BTC suddenly increased their holdings significantly when the price dropped to $76,000. Between February 1 and February 5, their holdings increased by 57,865 BTC, a total that is already far above the low point of October 25.
So, it's not that there is no demand in the market, but rather that they feel it's not cheap enough. Once the price offers good value, funds will act immediately. You might still be waiting for BTC at $30,000, but the keen-eyed whales may not give you that opportunity!
On-chain data shows that the whale group holding 10,000-100,000 BTC suddenly increased their holdings significantly when the price dropped to $76,000. Between February 1 and February 5, their holdings increased by 57,865 BTC, a total that is already far above the low point of October 25.
So, it's not that there is no demand in the market, but rather that they feel it's not cheap enough. Once the price offers good value, funds will act immediately. You might still be waiting for BTC at $30,000, but the keen-eyed whales may not give you that opportunity!
Trading is not useful for profit, personally it is so, and it is the same for institutions.
Yili Hua has cleared the warehouse, as one of the largest Ethereum bulls in this cycle, ultimately exiting with a loss of approximately -734 million USD, which is quite regrettable... I originally thought it was just to reduce liquidation risk by unloading leverage, but I didn't expect to clear out the spot positions as well.
I remember on December 30, 2025, at the request of my friends, I systematically analyzed and elaborated on 'When do I think ETH is worth bottom-fishing' from four dimensions: 'Emotion, Structure, Cost, Comprehensive'.
In simple terms, when LTH-NUPL < 0, PSIP < 50%, the price is below whale cost, and the market comprehensive score is less than 1 — at least 2 of these 4 conditions must be met to attempt to build a position; if 3 or more are met, then consideration can be given to moderately increasing the position.
I remember on December 30, 2025, at the request of my friends, I systematically analyzed and elaborated on 'When do I think ETH is worth bottom-fishing' from four dimensions: 'Emotion, Structure, Cost, Comprehensive'.
In simple terms, when LTH-NUPL < 0, PSIP < 50%, the price is below whale cost, and the market comprehensive score is less than 1 — at least 2 of these 4 conditions must be met to attempt to build a position; if 3 or more are met, then consideration can be given to moderately increasing the position.
It seems that long-term holders are about to give in.....
🚩LTH-RPRL-7d EMA (Realized Profit and Loss Ratio) equals 1; globally, this indicates that LTH as a whole is no longer profitable;
🚩LTH-SOPR-7d EMA (Spent Output Profit Ratio) also equals 1; on a transaction basis, this indicates that LTH is on the verge of structural capitulation.
In the exchanges, "long-term and losing" chips are flooding in, all of this foreshadows that the "last straw that breaks the camel's back" is about to come ......
Once long-term holders begin to completely collapse, it is basically the last "shudder" of every bear market, and also the darkest moment before dawn.
Hang in there, let's be family together;
In two years, you will thank your resolute self now!
🚩LTH-RPRL-7d EMA (Realized Profit and Loss Ratio) equals 1; globally, this indicates that LTH as a whole is no longer profitable;
🚩LTH-SOPR-7d EMA (Spent Output Profit Ratio) also equals 1; on a transaction basis, this indicates that LTH is on the verge of structural capitulation.
In the exchanges, "long-term and losing" chips are flooding in, all of this foreshadows that the "last straw that breaks the camel's back" is about to come ......
Once long-term holders begin to completely collapse, it is basically the last "shudder" of every bear market, and also the darkest moment before dawn.
Hang in there, let's be family together;
In two years, you will thank your resolute self now!
Murphy
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The sensitivity of long-term holders to price continues to rise! If we were to carve the boat, the times when the price reached the same heights in the past three cycles were:
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
Epic level! A massive loss has occurred!
On February 5th, the realized losses of BTC after adjustments reached a historic record of 3.2 billion dollars. After seeing this, everything before seems trivial.
Neither the Luna crash, the FTX collapse, nor the black swan events of 312/519 have triggered such a large-scale loss escape.
There was a similar incident on 2025.11.21, but at that time, Coinbase adjusted the data after organizing wallets. This time, it seems to be genuine panic.....
It appears that 'world records' are meant to be broken; it's been many years since I've seen Bitcoin drop like this without the occurrence of a black swan event.
I believe history will remember this day!
On February 5th, the realized losses of BTC after adjustments reached a historic record of 3.2 billion dollars. After seeing this, everything before seems trivial.
Neither the Luna crash, the FTX collapse, nor the black swan events of 312/519 have triggered such a large-scale loss escape.
There was a similar incident on 2025.11.21, but at that time, Coinbase adjusted the data after organizing wallets. This time, it seems to be genuine panic.....
It appears that 'world records' are meant to be broken; it's been many years since I've seen Bitcoin drop like this without the occurrence of a black swan event.
I believe history will remember this day!
The sensitivity of long-term holders to price continues to rise! If we were to carve the boat, the times when the price reached the same heights in the past three cycles were:
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
Slowly declining, but not collapsing - A look at chip reconstruction under panic sentiment from URPD
On February 4th, BTC has fallen from the high of $97,000 on January 15th to $73,000; the speed is fast, and the magnitude is deep, instantly extinguishing the optimistic sentiment that originally thought there would be resistance at 80k. To say there is no panic would be a lie. Therefore, it is necessary to review what changes have occurred in BTC's chip structure during this period and what important information is hidden behind it.
For ease of understanding, I have compiled the complete URPD data into a table, using each $10,000 interval as a section, allowing for a clear observation of the trajectory of chip movement to assess current market sentiment and behavior.
For ease of understanding, I have compiled the complete URPD data into a table, using each $10,000 interval as a section, allowing for a clear observation of the trajectory of chip movement to assess current market sentiment and behavior.
Glassnode uses the cumsum formula to calculate those moments when ETF has net inflows, corresponding to the $BTC price weighted average, which characterizes a very "behavioral" institutional cost anchor.
Currently, BlackRock's average cost is: $83,696; Fidelity's average cost is: $73,752; now BTC has fallen below BlackRock's average cost, launching a psychological impact on Fidelity investors.
No wonder during the past November and December, BlackRock investors were the main bearish players, and by January, Fidelity became the main seller.
If BlackRock mainly consists of institutional investors, while Fidelity has more ordinary retail investors, plus MSTR's current average cost is $76,040......
Now it's good, blessings can be enjoyed differently, but hardships must be shared! Let's all be family together!
Currently, BlackRock's average cost is: $83,696; Fidelity's average cost is: $73,752; now BTC has fallen below BlackRock's average cost, launching a psychological impact on Fidelity investors.
No wonder during the past November and December, BlackRock investors were the main bearish players, and by January, Fidelity became the main seller.
If BlackRock mainly consists of institutional investors, while Fidelity has more ordinary retail investors, plus MSTR's current average cost is $76,040......
Now it's good, blessings can be enjoyed differently, but hardships must be shared! Let's all be family together!
Panic Sellers Are Escaping!
On February 2, the on-chain 'Entity Adjusted Realized Loss (EARL)' for BTC — excluding internal transfers between the same entity — reached as high as $1.3 billion.
Although it is much smaller than the $1.8 billion EARL generated when BTC plummeted to $85,000 on November 21, 2025, it is still not insignificant. Even in the past ten years, the number of days when BTC's daily EARL exceeded $1 billion is limited.
It can only be under a bearish market background that so many fearful sellers are forced to sell. However, the clearing of panic selling can also provide BTC, which is in a downtrend, with a hard-won opportunity to breathe. Reduced selling pressure is conducive to a temporary stabilization in the short term, which naturally creates expectations for a rebound.
Although it is much smaller than the $1.8 billion EARL generated when BTC plummeted to $85,000 on November 21, 2025, it is still not insignificant. Even in the past ten years, the number of days when BTC's daily EARL exceeded $1 billion is limited.
It can only be under a bearish market background that so many fearful sellers are forced to sell. However, the clearing of panic selling can also provide BTC, which is in a downtrend, with a hard-won opportunity to breathe. Reduced selling pressure is conducive to a temporary stabilization in the short term, which naturally creates expectations for a rebound.
Not Binance's fault, Binance shouldn't bear it
Recently, discussions regarding Binance have flooded the Twitter timeline. In my impression, it seems that during every cycle's bull-bear transition stage, centralized exchanges become the protagonists of the relevant events. For example, Mt.Gox in 2014, FTX in 2022...
Exchanges are the carriers of on-site liquidity, with extremely high weight; once problems arise, their impact on the market is devastating. History will judge the rights and wrongs, but at this moment, I do not wish to see any exchange face issues, just as I did not want to see FTX collapse back then.
There is a saying in the market: 'Binance sold 1 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin', and I have also seen CZ respond that this is a trading behavior of Binance users. So, is the current decline of BTC really 'Binance' dumping? From the overall data, I don't think so.
Exchanges are the carriers of on-site liquidity, with extremely high weight; once problems arise, their impact on the market is devastating. History will judge the rights and wrongs, but at this moment, I do not wish to see any exchange face issues, just as I did not want to see FTX collapse back then.
There is a saying in the market: 'Binance sold 1 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin', and I have also seen CZ respond that this is a trading behavior of Binance users. So, is the current decline of BTC really 'Binance' dumping? From the overall data, I don't think so.
BRS=100 ！This is a signal of short-term panic risk release.
It means that BTC has the possibility of rebounding after a significant drop within the price range of 75,000-78,000. At the same time, this is exactly the middle of the "double anchor structure" on the URPD, which historically has shown a support effect.
It is important to note that this indicator does not have a 100% win rate; there have been cases of failure during the bear market phase of 2022 (see Figure 2).
Please make appropriate trading decisions based on your risk tolerance, position control, and financial planning!
It means that BTC has the possibility of rebounding after a significant drop within the price range of 75,000-78,000. At the same time, this is exactly the middle of the "double anchor structure" on the URPD, which historically has shown a support effect.
It is important to note that this indicator does not have a 100% win rate; there have been cases of failure during the bear market phase of 2022 (see Figure 2).
Please make appropriate trading decisions based on your risk tolerance, position control, and financial planning!
Murphy
·
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Rebound Peak or Bull Market Start???
At the end of 25, when I renewed my contract with the Glassnode team, they acknowledged my contributions to the Chinese community over the past year, especially granting me access to the 'proprietary signals' which were originally only available to institutional clients. To be honest, the content here is completely different from what I've seen in the past (too professional), so much so that after all this time, I still haven't fully understood it.
However, there is one indicator that I have observed to be quite effective for capturing the peak range of rebounds, and I want to share it with my friends! — Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS)
However, there is one indicator that I have observed to be quite effective for capturing the peak range of rebounds, and I want to share it with my friends! — Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS)
The overall behavior of whales is changing, and demand continues to decline
The behavior trends of whale groups have shifted from early accumulation and hesitation to now stopping and even turning to distribution, indicating that the main demand side of the market is visibly withdrawing (Figure 1).
When whales begin to accumulate chips, it may not immediately reflect in prices, but it genuinely absorbs the excess supply and can stabilize and boost market sentiment. However, their current shift may have an even more profound impact on the market.
Similarly, we can see a similar situation through the AD-CDD indicator. On January 25, when this data was updated, the AD-CDD was 0.2 (see citation), and it has now dropped to 0.13 (Figure 2).
When whales begin to accumulate chips, it may not immediately reflect in prices, but it genuinely absorbs the excess supply and can stabilize and boost market sentiment. However, their current shift may have an even more profound impact on the market.
Similarly, we can see a similar situation through the AD-CDD indicator. On January 25, when this data was updated, the AD-CDD was 0.2 (see citation), and it has now dropped to 0.13 (Figure 2).
The gap filling has begun!
Finally, we have arrived at this day, faster than expected...
You may not believe me, but you cannot ignore the emotions and behaviors that objectively exist behind the data.
I know that at this moment, I should not say much more;
I hope you have already made plans in advance and I hope my tweets can be of help to you!
Finally, we have arrived at this day, faster than expected...
You may not believe me, but you cannot ignore the emotions and behaviors that objectively exist behind the data.
I know that at this moment, I should not say much more;
I hope you have already made plans in advance and I hope my tweets can be of help to you!
Murphy
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BTC falls with the market but does not rise, reflecting low sentiment and a lack of confidence
Pancakes, U.S. stocks, and gold suddenly dropped sharply at the same time, which is quite strange; the possible reasons currently include claims of U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflicts, speculation about yen carry trades being unwound, and potential escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade war... These are all just possible 'bearish expectations,' but one thing is certain — that is the 'behavior' exhibited.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
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