半只猴子

7u Challenge: One Hundred Million!
Day 48
Starting capital: 7u, goal: 100 million
Current balance: 3900u
Living expenses: 2850u
Available funds: 1000u+

I went back to my hometown for the National Day holiday. I barely checked the markets for about a week, let alone scanned the chain. I went fishing for a few days, then drank every day—at noon, and again in the evening.

I spent 250u, and barely spent anything else. My cousins covered all the food and drinks. I’ll make a bit more money over the next few months and treat them to a nice meal during the New Year holiday.

1. Bitcoin moved sideways during the holiday. $BTC is holding support at $82,500, with resistance at $87,000. It’s been moving back and forth within this range; a breakout will show us which way the market is headed.

2. $UNI and $ZEC , which surged recently, have both pulled back. But I like pump more. As for pons, I’ll see whether its fundamentals recover.

3. I don’t even know what everyone’s trading in the meme coin scene anymore. A friend just told me that a coin we aped into a long time ago has been pumping hard, but I got out ages ago. I’m crying.

I only have $1,000 in starting capital now, so I need to build it up. I’ll keep pursuing my three ways to grow my capital: writing content, trading futures, and aping into shitcoins!

We can win this bull market!

Sun Yuchen said something many people don’t want to hear.

If quantum computing poses a threat to Bitcoin $BTC within the next two years, can Bitcoin complete a network-wide upgrade in that time?

He says: almost certainly not. He joined the Bitcoin community back in 2012, so he knows all too well how slowly things move. The last time Bitcoin upgraded to SegWit, the community argued for two years. In the end, it wasn’t an “upgrade completed”—it was a “fork,” and Bitcoin gained a sibling $BCH . The Taproot upgrade went relatively smoothly, but still took three years. Most people in the crypto industry have no idea how slowly the Bitcoin network reaches consensus. The threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin is being seriously underestimated.

No one knows when quantum computing will be able to crack Bitcoin.

But you don’t need to wait for a quantum computer to see how slowly Bitcoin upgrades—it’s played out several times over the past decade.

Do you think this is alarmist, or a real risk?

What’s the most profitable business in crypto?

Top five by fees today:

1. Papertrade: 7.33 million in fees, 7.33 million in revenue, 100% retention
2. $PUMP : 5.65 million in fees, 2.04 million in revenue, 36% retention
3. $HYPE : 3.47 million in fees, 2.64 million in revenue, 76% retention
4. $UNI : 3.32 million in fees, 320,000 in revenue, 10% retention
5. Polymarket: 3.24 million in fees, 600,000 in revenue, 18% retention

The new Papertrade protocol is really taking off: 3.76 million → 5.73 million → 7.33 million, doubling in two days. It’s surpassed PUMP.

Meanwhile, PUMP has barely budged over the past three days: 6.29 → 5.83 → 5.65 million.

Retention rates are the most interesting part:

HYPE 76%, PUMP 36%, Polymarket 18%, UNI just 10%.
They all charge fees, but HYPE keeps 76 out of every 100, while UNI keeps only 10. The rest goes to LPs.

If you’re not sure what coin to buy, you can use this ranking as a reference.

Bitcoin $BTC — where does it go from here?

Yesterday: I thought it would go up (“once the bad news is out, that’s good news”), but the price first dropped to 79,800 before bouncing back to 82,600—the ride was really frustrating.

1. Compared with yesterday, the bulls are stronger now

Liquidation pressure from long positions below: about $1.5 billion → about $2 billion
Liquidation pressure from short positions above: about $2.5 billion → about $1.2 billion

2. Key price levels to watch

81,500: The first dense cluster below; a break below this level triggers the first wave of liquidations
80,000: The next level down; the buffer starts to thin out here

83,000: The first cluster of short positions above
83,800: A break above this level would trigger the strongest short squeeze

3. Possible scenarios

Downward: Break below 81,500 → the dense long-position cluster around 80,000 → the buffer is thin in this range, so liquidations could cascade

Upward: Hold above 83,000 to start squeezing shorts → 83,800 → 84,500

4. My take

Based on today’s data, the bulls are stronger, and most of the negative news has been priced in. I’m leaning toward a rise.

Don’t ask why. Just know I’m still holding my long position!

#比特币现货ETF单日净流出2.61亿美元

I can't stop laughing—a scammer got robbed by another scammer!

One of the biggest victims in this Ledger wallet theft was a scammer himself. He lost over 60 $BTC , worth more than four million dollars. All of that money had been scammed from others.

His scam worked like this—he ran a “task scam”:

First, he hired people to place orders for products and write positive reviews.
Then he told participants, “Your account has a negative balance.
You have to pay out of your own pocket first to receive your payment.”

—Pay out of your own pocket first.

On September 22, he transferred the scammed money to three Ledger addresses.
On October 9, all three addresses were emptied.

He used the “you have to pay out of your own pocket first” trick to scam a lot of people.

Then he used the very same trick and sent the money away himself.

This isn’t just funny. It shows how, on-chain, “who’s scamming whom” can flip:

Someone who’s a victim today could be a perpetrator tomorrow;
Someone who’s a perpetrator today could get cleaned out by someone else the day after.

#Ledger

After losing 12 million in 10 days, Machi refuses to admit defeat and puts in another 250,000 to keep going long $ETH

Machi’s account is back to $300,000. But this time, he didn’t earn it back.

Earlier today, his Ethereum long position was liquidated, leaving just $20,000 in his account. By tonight, another $250,000 had appeared—it was money he transferred in himself.

His Ethereum long position has now grown to 3,300 ETH.

A month and a half ago, his account was worth $150,000.
Then: $150,000 → $12 million → $800,000 → $10 million → $1 million → $560,000 → $150,000 → $20,000.

Every time before, he managed to roll his way back by compounding his positions—but this time, he came back by putting in more money.

Rolling his way back meant the market gave him another chance;
putting in more money means he just refuses to admit defeat.

Do you think he can use this money to make it back this time?

This guy shorted the entire AI sector and made $10 million in the past 7 days.

But going long on Bitcoin $BTC wiped out half the profits from his short positions.

Worth noting: he’s opened another long position, $STRK .

There was a trader who shorted almost the entire market.

He had more than a dozen U.S. stock contracts, all short positions:
Nvidia, Oracle, SanDisk, Micron... all names that have surged the most in this AI rally.

He wasn’t shorting a particular coin; he was shorting the “AI narrative.” And so far, he’s been right.

But at the same time, he went long on Bitcoin. His only long position was $BTC .

He also had a bunch of altcoins, all short positions.

【The result】

Almost all of his short positions are in the green. Meanwhile, the losses on his only long position exceed half of the profits from all his shorts combined.

7u challenge to make 100 million!
Day 55
Starting capital: 7u, goal: 100 million
Current: 3700u
Living expenses: 3420u
Available funds: 300u

In two months, I’ve earned a total of 900u from creating content. I’ve been losing money trading for the past half month, and losing on meme coins too. Only content has helped me recover some losses.

But I don’t know why the rewards suddenly stopped coming in this week. I still haven’t figured out what happened.

Current positions:
Still holding a long position in $BTC , and my long position in $PUMP is still in the red. I needed money a couple of days ago, so I sold some meme coins I’d been holding at a loss. I’ll feel awful if they go up later.

Here’s where I’m at right now: the living-expense meter hasn’t stopped ticking for even a day. I’ve got just over 300 left in available funds—enough to last a few days, but not much longer. I feel so miserable I could cry.

In the latest plunge, Machi’s $ETH long position in Ethereum was liquidated.

A month and a half ago, his account was at 150,000.
Then: 150,000 → 12,000,000 → 800,000 → 10,000,000 → 1,000,000 → 560,000 → 150,000 → 20,000.

I just saw him use his remaining funds to go long on Ethereum again. Do you think he can make a comeback?

Bitcoin $BTC liquidated $12.03 million—another big whale is crying!

Longs have been taking a beating for the second day in a row, and today was even worse.

Liquidated positions won’t come back. All the highly leveraged positions were wiped out in one wave. This is the price of “only low-leverage players left.”

Can your position still hold up?

Bitcoin $BTC : What’s next?

Yesterday, I expected a sideways move. The price went from 83,403 to 81,778 (-1.95%), which wasn’t a big deal.

1. Today’s data compared with yesterday

Long liquidation intensity below: about $1.8 billion → about $1.5 billion
Short liquidation intensity above: about $1.7 billion → about $2.5 billion

2. Key price levels to watch

81,000: The first dense liquidation zone below. A break below this could trigger the first wave of liquidations.
80,000: The next level down; the cushion starts to thin out here.

82,500: The first cluster of shorts above.
83,500: A breakout above here would squeeze shorts the hardest.

3. Possible scenarios

Downward: Break below 81,000 → dense long liquidation zone around 80,000 → the cushion is thin in this stretch, so cascading liquidations are likely.

Upward: Get above 82,500 to start squeezing shorts → 83,500 → 84,500

5. My view

Yesterday, expectations of an interest rate hike pushed both gold and Bitcoin down. But what I see is that Bitcoin’s price is still remarkably resilient—it just won’t fall much further.

Short positions worth $2.5 billion are stacked above, outweighing the $1.5 billion in longs below. If the price really starts to rise, short covering itself becomes buying pressure, and the squeeze could be stronger than a move downward.

When the bad news is fully priced in, it becomes good news!

What’s the most profitable business in crypto?

Today’s top five by fees:

1. $PUMP — fees: 5.83 million, revenue: 2.17 million, retention rate: 37%
2. Papertrade — fees: 5.73 million, revenue: 5.73 million, retention rate: 100%
3. Polymarket — fees: 3.59 million, revenue: 600,000, retention rate: 17%
4. $UNI — fees: 3.38 million, revenue: 290,000, retention rate: 9%
5. $HYPE — fees: 2.76 million, revenue: 2.18 million, retention rate: 79%

Yesterday I wrote that Papertrade was down 36%. Today it’s bounced back: 3.76 million → 5.73 million, up 52%.

PUMP’s fees are 5.83 million, exactly the same as yesterday, and its retention rate is still 37%—not explosive, but steady.

HYPE’s retention rate is 79%, more than twice PUMP’s.

If you don’t know which coin to buy, you can use this ranking as a reference.

Lost $12 million in 7 days, with just $150,000 left in the account—Machi is back where he started

A month and a half ago, his account had $150,000.
Then: $150,000 → $12 million → $800,000 → $10 million → $1 million → $560,000 → $150,000.
After going around in circles, he's back where he started.

And over that month and a half, he paid $1.36 million in funding fees alone.

But now, there's something even more dangerous than being “back where he started”

· 2,250 $ETH , 25x cross margin
· Entry price: $2,515.81
· Liquidation price: $2,401.35
· Unrealized loss: $218,100

ETH is currently at $2,421, just 0.8% above the liquidation price.

Last time: 7,075 ETH, worth $17.77 million.
Now: 2,250 ETH, worth $5.44 million.
He cut his position by 68%, bringing the liquidation price down from $2,471.96 to $2,401.35.

What does this mean? He deliberately widened the gap to his liquidation price. But it also suggests something else: he may be running out of money.

Machi is back where he started. Do you think he can make it back this time?

Over the past 24 hours, 79,190 people were liquidated, for a total of $281 million.

That’s an average of 55 people per minute.

1 hour: $75.37 million in longs, $6.19 million in shorts—longs accounted for 92%.
24 hours: $228 million in longs, $52.7 million in shorts—longs accounted for 81.2% of liquidations.

The biggest loss was $ETH , who was liquidated for $7.0268 million, with a trigger price of $2,433.32.

The main reason: U.S. September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year (3.6% expected) → higher than expected → increased odds of an interest rate hike.

The same data sent both gold and Bitcoin lower.

#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何

I discovered a secret: $PUMP is cheaper than the company Buffett just bought!

Don’t rush to criticize me—look at the numbers first.

On October 14, Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway $BRKB , spent $330 million to buy an Italian company:
Bending Spoons—a company that specializes in acquiring “once-popular” apps.

The model is simple: buy products with tens of millions of users but no growth, then cut staff, switch to subscriptions, and raise prices.
Revenue grew from $387 million to $1.31 billion in two years.

So how long would it take to earn back the purchase price?
Market cap: $18.4 billion. Annual earnings: $1.31 billion → 14 years.

PUMP takes 4.2 years.

【But “cheap” and “high quality” are two different things】

When Buffett buys Bending Spoons, he’s buying “reliable rental income”—subscribers are very likely to renew next year.

PUMP’s revenue, on the other hand, is driven by meme hype.

The market only values it at 4.2 years, not because it’s high quality, but because it “might not make this much next year.”

So, to put it accurately: PUMP wins on “time to earn back the investment”; Buffett wins on “revenue certainty.”

If it were up to you, would you choose PUMP at 4.2 years, or Buffett at 14 years?

A company accumulating coins even more aggressively than MicroStrategy has emerged

Today, Strive announced another $235 million purchase of 2,822 $BTC , bringing its total holdings to 35,595, valued at $2.95 billion.

Of those 35,595, 17% were bought over the past two weeks for $515 million:

· 10/5–10/9: 3,311, average price $84,500
· This purchase: 2,822, average price $83,274
· Total: 6,133, for $515 million

MicroStrategy Strategy $MSTR holds 848,250—Strive has just 1/24 as many.

So “more aggressive than MicroStrategy” refers to the pace, not the scale.
How long that pace can be sustained is the real question.
#Strive斥资2.8亿美元增持3311枚BTC

If you treat a coin like a company, how many years would it take to recoup your investment using the money it earns?

I just took a look at the on-chain data and found that $PUMP still looks pretty solid by the numbers.

(The methodology and charts are in the image above, so I won’t repeat them. I’ll just point out three things you can’t see in the charts.)

1. PUMP ranks No. 2 in revenue

It earns $1.49 million a day, second only to $HYPE , which brings in $2.18 million. But its market cap is only one-eighth of HYPE’s.

2. What really makes PUMP look cheap is $UNI

UNI earns just $266,000 a day, 1/5.6 of PUMP’s revenue, yet its market cap is twice PUMP’s.

3. A 4.2-year payback period sounds great, but it depends on one thing: maintaining its current rate of earnings.

Meme launchpad revenue is driven by hype. While the hype lasts, $1.49 million a day is real. Once it fades, that figure will fall faster than anyone else’s.

PONS’s data has been so bad lately that I just can’t bring myself to go long.

What’s the most profitable business in crypto?

Money Printer Daily · Day 2

1. $PUMP — 24h fees: 5.83 million, revenue: 2.17 million, retention rate: 37%
2. Papertrade — 24h fees: 3.76 million, revenue: 3.76 million, retention rate: 100%
3. Polymarket — 24h fees: 3.53 million, revenue: 540,000, retention rate: 15%

PUMP is still in first place. Its 37% retention rate is basically unchanged from yesterday’s 36%—it’s not explosive, but it’s steady.

Yesterday’s third-place project, $UNI , has dropped out of the top five.
Papertrade, which I focused on yesterday, saw its fees fall from 5.9 million to 3.76 million—a 36% drop in one day.

Tether and Circle have been excluded from the rankings. Together, they bring in $24.45 million a day, but that comes from using users’ money to buy U.S. Treasuries and earn interest—not from protocol business.

If you don’t know what to buy, look at the protocols that are the real money printers.

7u challenge to reach 100 million!
Day 54
Starting capital: 7u, target: 100 million
Current: 3700u
Living expenses: 3420u
Available funds: 350u+

Yesterday at 4:30, the bank sent a message: "This must be resolved before 5."
I panicked. My money was scattered across several chains, and in the end I was still 300 yuan short.

But it wasn't the 300 yuan that upset me.

It was remembering two meme coins.

The first: I got in at 35u, and it peaked at 7000u—a 200x.
I didn't sell, and eventually exited with a profit of a few hundred u.

The second: I got in at a little over 20u, and it peaked at 1200u—a 55x.
Not only did I not sell, I even bought more on the dip. In the end, I lost 500u.

Combined: If I'd sold at the peaks, I would have made 8000u in unrealized profit.

What does 8000u mean?
Yesterday, I was scrambling over 300 yuan and sold a bunch of meme coins I'd been holding at a loss. If they take off later, I'll be kicking myself.

I finally figured something out.
I've been researching "how to buy a 200x coin."
But my problem was never that I couldn't find one. It was that I didn't sell.

All my money is stuck on those two words: "didn't sell."

[Holdings]
$BTC still holding a long position; $PUMP long position, taking a brutal loss
$PONS data still looks weak; keeping an eye on strk

A 100-million target, and the reality of being short 300 yuan—what a gut punch!