7u Challenge: One Hundred Million! Day 48 Starting capital: 7u, goal: 100 million Current balance: 3900u Living expenses: 2850u Available funds: 1000u+
I went back to my hometown for the National Day holiday. I barely checked the markets for about a week, let alone scanned the chain. I went fishing for a few days, then drank every day—at noon, and again in the evening.
I spent 250u, and barely spent anything else. My cousins covered all the food and drinks. I’ll make a bit more money over the next few months and treat them to a nice meal during the New Year holiday.
1. Bitcoin moved sideways during the holiday. $BTC is holding support at $82,500, with resistance at $87,000. It’s been moving back and forth within this range; a breakout will show us which way the market is headed.
2. $UNI and $ZEC , which surged recently, have both pulled back. But I like pump more. As for pons, I’ll see whether its fundamentals recover.
3. I don’t even know what everyone’s trading in the meme coin scene anymore. A friend just told me that a coin we aped into a long time ago has been pumping hard, but I got out ages ago. I’m crying.
I only have $1,000 in starting capital now, so I need to build it up. I’ll keep pursuing my three ways to grow my capital: writing content, trading futures, and aping into shitcoins!
There was a trader who shorted almost the entire market.
He had more than a dozen U.S. stock contracts, all short positions: Nvidia, Oracle, SanDisk, Micron... all names that have surged the most in this AI rally.
He wasn’t shorting a particular coin; he was shorting the “AI narrative.” And so far, he’s been right.
But at the same time, he went long on Bitcoin. His only long position was $BTC .
He also had a bunch of altcoins, all short positions.
【The result】
Almost all of his short positions are in the green. Meanwhile, the losses on his only long position exceed half of the profits from all his shorts combined.
7u challenge to make 100 million! Day 55 Starting capital: 7u, goal: 100 million Current: 3700u Living expenses: 3420u Available funds: 300u
In two months, I’ve earned a total of 900u from creating content. I’ve been losing money trading for the past half month, and losing on meme coins too. Only content has helped me recover some losses.
But I don’t know why the rewards suddenly stopped coming in this week. I still haven’t figured out what happened.
Current positions: Still holding a long position in $BTC , and my long position in $PUMP is still in the red. I needed money a couple of days ago, so I sold some meme coins I’d been holding at a loss. I’ll feel awful if they go up later.
Here’s where I’m at right now: the living-expense meter hasn’t stopped ticking for even a day. I’ve got just over 300 left in available funds—enough to last a few days, but not much longer. I feel so miserable I could cry.
Bitcoin $BTC liquidated $12.03 million—another big whale is crying!
Longs have been taking a beating for the second day in a row, and today was even worse.
Liquidated positions won’t come back. All the highly leveraged positions were wiped out in one wave. This is the price of “only low-leverage players left.”
Yesterday, I expected a sideways move. The price went from 83,403 to 81,778 (-1.95%), which wasn’t a big deal.
1. Today’s data compared with yesterday
Long liquidation intensity below: about $1.8 billion → about $1.5 billion Short liquidation intensity above: about $1.7 billion → about $2.5 billion
2. Key price levels to watch
81,000: The first dense liquidation zone below. A break below this could trigger the first wave of liquidations. 80,000: The next level down; the cushion starts to thin out here.
82,500: The first cluster of shorts above. 83,500: A breakout above here would squeeze shorts the hardest.
3. Possible scenarios
Downward: Break below 81,000 → dense long liquidation zone around 80,000 → the cushion is thin in this stretch, so cascading liquidations are likely.
Upward: Get above 82,500 to start squeezing shorts → 83,500 → 84,500
5. My view
Yesterday, expectations of an interest rate hike pushed both gold and Bitcoin down. But what I see is that Bitcoin’s price is still remarkably resilient—it just won’t fall much further.
Short positions worth $2.5 billion are stacked above, outweighing the $1.5 billion in longs below. If the price really starts to rise, short covering itself becomes buying pressure, and the squeeze could be stronger than a move downward.
When the bad news is fully priced in, it becomes good news!
Lost $12 million in 7 days, with just $150,000 left in the account—Machi is back where he started
A month and a half ago, his account had $150,000. Then: $150,000 → $12 million → $800,000 → $10 million → $1 million → $560,000 → $150,000. After going around in circles, he's back where he started.
And over that month and a half, he paid $1.36 million in funding fees alone.
But now, there's something even more dangerous than being “back where he started”
ETH is currently at $2,421, just 0.8% above the liquidation price.
Last time: 7,075 ETH, worth $17.77 million. Now: 2,250 ETH, worth $5.44 million. He cut his position by 68%, bringing the liquidation price down from $2,471.96 to $2,401.35.
What does this mean? He deliberately widened the gap to his liquidation price. But it also suggests something else: he may be running out of money.
Machi is back where he started. Do you think he can make it back this time?
Over the past 24 hours, 79,190 people were liquidated, for a total of $281 million.
That’s an average of 55 people per minute.
1 hour: $75.37 million in longs, $6.19 million in shorts—longs accounted for 92%. 24 hours: $228 million in longs, $52.7 million in shorts—longs accounted for 81.2% of liquidations.
The biggest loss was $ETH , who was liquidated for $7.0268 million, with a trigger price of $2,433.32.
The main reason: U.S. September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year (3.6% expected) → higher than expected → increased odds of an interest rate hike.
I discovered a secret: $PUMP is cheaper than the company Buffett just bought!
Don’t rush to criticize me—look at the numbers first.
On October 14, Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway $BRKB , spent $330 million to buy an Italian company: Bending Spoons—a company that specializes in acquiring “once-popular” apps.
The model is simple: buy products with tens of millions of users but no growth, then cut staff, switch to subscriptions, and raise prices. Revenue grew from $387 million to $1.31 billion in two years.
So how long would it take to earn back the purchase price? Market cap: $18.4 billion. Annual earnings: $1.31 billion → 14 years.
PUMP takes 4.2 years.
【But “cheap” and “high quality” are two different things】
When Buffett buys Bending Spoons, he’s buying “reliable rental income”—subscribers are very likely to renew next year.
PUMP’s revenue, on the other hand, is driven by meme hype.
The market only values it at 4.2 years, not because it’s high quality, but because it “might not make this much next year.”
So, to put it accurately: PUMP wins on “time to earn back the investment”; Buffett wins on “revenue certainty.”
If it were up to you, would you choose PUMP at 4.2 years, or Buffett at 14 years?
A company accumulating coins even more aggressively than MicroStrategy has emerged
Today, Strive announced another $235 million purchase of 2,822 $BTC , bringing its total holdings to 35,595, valued at $2.95 billion.
Of those 35,595, 17% were bought over the past two weeks for $515 million:
· 10/5–10/9: 3,311, average price $84,500 · This purchase: 2,822, average price $83,274 · Total: 6,133, for $515 million
MicroStrategy Strategy $MSTR holds 848,250—Strive has just 1/24 as many.
So “more aggressive than MicroStrategy” refers to the pace, not the scale. How long that pace can be sustained is the real question. #Strive斥资2.8亿美元增持3311枚BTC
If you treat a coin like a company, how many years would it take to recoup your investment using the money it earns?
I just took a look at the on-chain data and found that $PUMP still looks pretty solid by the numbers.
(The methodology and charts are in the image above, so I won’t repeat them. I’ll just point out three things you can’t see in the charts.)
1. PUMP ranks No. 2 in revenue
It earns $1.49 million a day, second only to $HYPE , which brings in $2.18 million. But its market cap is only one-eighth of HYPE’s.
2. What really makes PUMP look cheap is $UNI
UNI earns just $266,000 a day, 1/5.6 of PUMP’s revenue, yet its market cap is twice PUMP’s.
3. A 4.2-year payback period sounds great, but it depends on one thing: maintaining its current rate of earnings.
Meme launchpad revenue is driven by hype. While the hype lasts, $1.49 million a day is real. Once it fades, that figure will fall faster than anyone else’s.
PONS’s data has been so bad lately that I just can’t bring myself to go long.
PUMP is still in first place. Its 37% retention rate is basically unchanged from yesterday’s 36%—it’s not explosive, but it’s steady.
Yesterday’s third-place project, $UNI , has dropped out of the top five. Papertrade, which I focused on yesterday, saw its fees fall from 5.9 million to 3.76 million—a 36% drop in one day.
Tether and Circle have been excluded from the rankings. Together, they bring in $24.45 million a day, but that comes from using users’ money to buy U.S. Treasuries and earn interest—not from protocol business.
If you don’t know what to buy, look at the protocols that are the real money printers.
7u challenge to reach 100 million! Day 54 Starting capital: 7u, target: 100 million Current: 3700u Living expenses: 3420u Available funds: 350u+
Yesterday at 4:30, the bank sent a message: "This must be resolved before 5." I panicked. My money was scattered across several chains, and in the end I was still 300 yuan short.
But it wasn't the 300 yuan that upset me.
It was remembering two meme coins.
The first: I got in at 35u, and it peaked at 7000u—a 200x. I didn't sell, and eventually exited with a profit of a few hundred u.
The second: I got in at a little over 20u, and it peaked at 1200u—a 55x. Not only did I not sell, I even bought more on the dip. In the end, I lost 500u.
Combined: If I'd sold at the peaks, I would have made 8000u in unrealized profit.
What does 8000u mean? Yesterday, I was scrambling over 300 yuan and sold a bunch of meme coins I'd been holding at a loss. If they take off later, I'll be kicking myself.
I finally figured something out. I've been researching "how to buy a 200x coin." But my problem was never that I couldn't find one. It was that I didn't sell.
All my money is stuck on those two words: "didn't sell."
[Holdings] $BTC still holding a long position; $PUMP long position, taking a brutal loss $PONS data still looks weak; keeping an eye on strk
A 100-million target, and the reality of being short 300 yuan—what a gut punch!
Who keeps sending money to Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallet?
I just checked Satoshi Nakamoto’s address. Current holdings:
1.096 million coins, $BTC , worth $91.8 billion at the current price of $83,753, accounting for 5.22% of the entire network.
His genesis address: Over the past 15 years, it has received 57.65 BTC across 66,911 transactions. That’s about $72 per transaction, on average.
The largest was 26.9 BTC in early 2024—one transaction that made up more than 40% of the total received.
At the time, CB’s product lead Conor Grogan said: "Either Satoshi woke up and bought 27 bitcoins to put in his wallet, or someone burned a million dollars."
Why are people still sending Satoshi money every day? To pay tribute, leave an on-chain message, or simply to become "someone who has sent money to Satoshi."
With 67,000 transactions, do you think this is really a tribute, or just a collective exercise in self-congratulation?
The whale who bought HYPE at $3.87 two years ago is accelerating their exit!
They bought at a cost of $3.87. Since September 28, they’ve transferred a total of 261,924 $HYPE tokens to exchanges, worth $22.5 million in total, at an average price of $85.90.
1. Their selling pace:
From 15 days ago to 5 days ago, three transactions totaling 131,648 tokens, averaging 13,165 tokens per day 3 hours ago: 100,276 tokens
That last transaction accounted for 38.3% of their total cumulative sales.
2. Look at the price:
$88 → $92.96 → $87.20 → $84.36 → $81.48 They kept selling as the price kept falling.
This doesn’t look like “taking profits in batches”—it looks more like an accelerated exit after a change in outlook.
A whale’s selling often sends a stronger signal than their buying. What do you think?
Bitcoin $BTC : Where will it go next? Reading the liquidation map, Day 3
Yesterday I said to expect sideways movement, and I was right. Running tally: 1 right, 1 wrong.
1. Compared with yesterday
Price: 82,784 → 83,403 Liquidation intensity for longs below: $1.1 billion → about $1.8 billion Liquidation intensity for shorts above: $2.0 billion → about $1.7 billion
2. Today's data
Cumulative liquidation intensity for longs below: about $1.8 billion Cumulative liquidation intensity for shorts above: about $1.7 billion
3. Key levels to watch
82,709: The upper edge of the dense long zone. A break below here will accelerate the first wave of liquidations. 81,665: The densest area below; the buffer starts thinning from here.
84,188: The first cluster of shorts, and one of the tallest bars on the entire map. 85,232: The densest short zone; a breakout here would trigger the strongest squeeze.
4. Possible paths
Upward: Move above 84,188 to start squeezing shorts. Short covering itself creates buying pressure → 84,710 → 85,232 → 86,798. Beyond that, the bars thin out noticeably and resistance eases.
Downward: Break below 82,709 → the densest long zone at 81,665 → the buffer is thin in this stretch, so cascading liquidations are likely.
5. My view
AI's view is: upward. But I think the bulls and bears are evenly matched, so we’ll continue moving sideways. Yesterday's data was actually unfavorable for the bulls, but they held on. It feels like the price just can't break lower.
I just looked at Bit Langlang’s 4,804 trades from May 2022 to June 2024. Three numbers are completely counterintuitive.
1. A win rate of just 40%
1,964 winning trades and 2,803 losing trades—that’s 839 more losses than wins.
Yet he still made money: average win of 5,008, average loss of 1,534, and a win/loss ratio of 3.27. He didn’t make money through his win rate, but through his risk-reward ratio.
2. 42% of trades didn’t last five minutes
2,030 trades were cut within five minutes; 77% didn’t last 30 minutes. Median holding time: 7 minutes.
3. Almost all his profits came from just 54 trades
Broken down by holding time:
· 4 to 24 hours: 256 trades, 1.749 million in gross profit · Over 1 day: 54 trades, 2.539 million in gross profit · The 2,030 trades held for under 5 minutes made just $3,162 in total
Those 54 trades made up just 1.1% of all trades, but contributed 45.9% of the profits.
The assets he traded most were $BTC (1,036 trades), $ETH (404 trades), and $PEPE (255 trades).
A net profit of 4.786 million over two years. These three numbers are really all saying the same thing.
This isn’t luck—it’s discipline. Cut losses quickly, let winners run, and let the risk-reward ratio speak for itself.
Machi Big Brother lost $11.68 million in 7 days. His account is down to just $560,000.
Look at the path he’s taken over the past month and a half, going long $ETH :
$150,000 → $12 million → $800,000 → $10 million → $1 million → $560,000
On October 5, he still had $5.46 million in unrealized profits. Eight days later, it was all gone. Latest: He’s lost a total of $11.68 million in 7 days, and his account is down to just $560,000.
He survived the first five times. Each time he turned a few hundred thousand into $10 million again, it reinforced the idea that rolling over his positions was the right move. So he’ll keep doing it.
Didn't see that coming, did you? A company that's even more aggressive than MicroStrategy at stockpiling coins has emerged!
Last week I wrote that the Strive CEO had also posted an orange dot, following the pattern set by MicroStrategy's Saylor. It was a signal that more buying was coming.
Today's announcement is in: Strive bought 3,311 $BTC from October 5 to 9, at an average price of $84,500, bringing its total holdings to 32,773.
But what really stands out is the comparison with $MSTR —in the same week:
· Strategy bought 250, worth about $21.5 million · Strive bought 3,311, worth about $280 million
Strive bought 13 times as much as Strategy.
A few days ago I wrote that Strategy's money is shifting from “issuing shares to buy coins” to “buying back its own preferred shares, STRC.” Now that someone is buying more than it is, that's good for the whole market and reduces systemic risk.
Keep an eye on it from now on: whoever posts an orange dot is the one who'll announce more purchases the next day.