大蚊子-4

ETH Trend for the Next Week:
1. Core Judgment: Weak fluctuations as the main trend, first looking at the range, then at the breakout.
There is a high probability of a broad fluctuation between 1900 and 2100 USD, with both the possibility of a decline followed by a rise or a rise followed by a decline; the directional trend needs to wait for confirmation of the key level breakout.
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ETH
24h range: 1907–1921, slight decline
Short-term bias weak, oversold, oscillating for a bottom
2. Support levels (from near to far)
First support: 1900–1920 (current range, dense transaction/buying support)
Second support: 1850–1880 (Bollinger band lower track/previous low)
Strong support: 1800–1830 (key psychological/structural support, breaking down looks for deeper pullback)
Extreme support: 1750–1780 (long-term buying/support area)

3. Resistance levels (from near to far)
First resistance: 1950–1960 (EMA9/EMA20 moving average resistance)
Second resistance: 2000–2020 (round number + trapped positions)
Strong resistance: 2050–2080 (multiple rebounds facing resistance, bearish defense line)
Key resistance: 2146–2197 (mid-term trend dividing line)

4. Comprehensive technical judgment

Trend: Daily/4-hour bearish dominance, in a descending channel
Oversold: RSI(6)=13, RSI(12)=23, entering severe oversold area, demand for rebound
MACD: Bearish momentum weakening, signs of bottom divergence
Volume: Decreasing volume decline, selling pressure easing, but no obvious volume rebound
On-chain: Large holders accumulating at low levels, but institutions are cautious and funding is conservative

5. Future trends (24h–7 days)

Scenario 1: Slightly strong (holding support)
Hold 1900, rebound first look at 1950–1960
Breakthrough 2000 look at 2050 strong resistance
Volume stable above 2080 is expected to open up rebound space

Scenario 2: Slightly weak (breaking support)
Effectively break below 1880 → test 1800–1830
Further break 1800 → look below 1750–1780 extreme support
Macro (USD/Federal Reserve expectations) biased bearish, rebound easy to encounter resistance
Mid-term (2–4 weeks)
High probability of wide oscillation in 1800–2200
Breakthrough 2200 look at 2350–2400; break below 1750 look at below 1600

6. Key observation signals
Volume stable above 1960: short-term turns strong
Volume breaks below 1880: further weakness
Can BTC hold 67000 support (strong correlation)
$ETH
Large on-chain transfers/ETF capital flows

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Before the non-farm data release at #非农就业数据 , the opportunity to rebound has come. Currently (1950), the most suitable direction is

Prioritize light positions to go long, not suitable for direct shorting.

- 1950 is the lower edge of a strong support zone, clearly oversold, and the probability of a rebound is greater than a continued sharp decline.
- Tonight at 21:30, before the non-farm data, the market is more cautious and looking to recover; directly chasing shorts may easily lead to getting stopped out by a rebound.

2. Going long (current price 1950) execution plan (most secure)

- Entry: Light long at 1950 (position ≤ 10% of total funds, leverage ≤ 50 times)
- Stop loss: 1910 (exit if breached, do not hold positions)
- Take profit:
- First target: 2000–2010 (reduce position by half first)
- Second target: 2050–2080 (high probability to reach before non-farm)
- After non-farm: If stable above 2080, look for 2100–2120; if data is poor, look higher; if data is good, take profit around 2000 and exit.

3. Going short (not recommended to open directly now)

- Only when rebounding to 2080–2100 meets resistance + volume contraction, then lightly try shorting.
- Stop loss: 2130
- Take profit: 2000–1980

4. One-sentence conclusion (current price 1950)

Now it is more suitable to lightly go long to seek a rebound, not suitable for direct shorting; before the non-farm, take profit when you see gains, do not gamble on the data.
$BTC $ETH

Now many people are advocating for a cyclical decline, talking about the three-stage downward trend and that anything below 50,000 is the bottom. Don't let others influence your actions; rely on your own judgment, and only by comprehensively assessing the market will you gain profits. I always believe that BTC will not drop below 50,000. If it drops below 50,000, I will sell my house to buy the dip! $BTC

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$ETH 2120-2130 has significant resistance. If it cannot stabilize in 4 hours, a short position is possible in the short term.

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