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Binance has launched US stocks; did you really buy the right ones?

You can now buy US stocks on Binance, but many folks are confused about what they're actually buying.

Though they all go by "US stocks," there are actually three completely different products on Binance —

Pre-IPO perpetual contracts ($SPCX, $OPENAI, $ANTHROPIC) — Your funds stay on Binance, and you're buying contracts, not actual equity. The price tracks company valuations, and if the company issues more shares, the contract dips — it’s not that your asset shrinks, but the reference price changes.

Ondo tokenized stocks ($NFLXon, $JPMon, etc.) — Ondo Finance uses your funds to purchase real US stocks and then issues on-chain tokens as proof. There’s real asset backing, but you hold tokens, not stocks; if Ondo hits a snag, the tokens could go to zero.

Binance Stocks (the in-app stock section) — This is the closest to real US stocks. Orders are routed through Nest Trading to Alpaca Securities (a licensed broker by the US SEC/FINRA), executed on NYSE/Nasdaq, and you’re the beneficial owner, eligible for dividends. It also offers bStocks on-chain versions, allowing for 24/7 trading and self-custody.

Risk Control:
Pre-IPO contracts → purely synthetic, no assets, highest risk

Ondo RWA → backed by real assets, reliant on intermediaries

Binance Stocks → closest to real US stocks, assets held with Alpaca

Same platform, three products, completely different risk structures.
Make sure you know which entry point you’re clicking on before buying.
#bStocks officially launched

This is a market depth slope chart: Polymarket is blue, Predict is purple.

On the 5-minute BTC up-or-down market, Predict has gone from almost nothing to nearly catching up with Polymarket.

This slope shows one thing: high-frequency markets are no longer Poly’s exclusive territory.

Polymarket isn’t issuing a token, which means it’s actively giving up the crypto crowd’s expectation of a $4 billion valuation.

The only reasons users have left to stick around are liquidity and habit.

Liquidity can be caught up with; habits can change.

Predict has a Binance entry point, points, and the expectation of a token launch. Once its user base catches up, drawing over Poly users is only natural.

Here’s how I’m playing it now: I watch both platforms for high-frequency short-term trades. If Poly still has more liquidity, I trade there. If Predict is already competitive, I leave my orders on Predict.

I keep my long-term positions and points only on Predict.

Polymarket isn’t issuing a token, so my expectations have already come down.

As long as Predict can grow its user base further, it’ll be the next player to take the lead in prediction markets.

We’ll see who comes out on top in six months.

@predictdotfun-华语

I’ve been playing prediction markets for over three years, and Yue Xiaoyu’s piece really hit the mark.

The crypto playbook of points, ambassadors, and airdrops can bring people in, but it can’t keep them around.

The World Cup was a case in point. A lot of people came in early to farm points and chase rewards by running multiple accounts. Once the World Cup was over, they were gone.

The ones who stayed are people who genuinely bet on the markets. People like me, who have always followed the development of this sector and still look for opportunities in prediction markets every day, trading against the odds.

Some people stayed because they really got hooked. They saw the potential for a token launch, had points to earn, and found the platform comfortable and easy to use.

Others may have stayed for a simpler reason: they saw me when I was livestreaming in the community feed.
You can play right on Binance, without jumping to a third-party link or connecting a wallet.
It’s really convenient—you can play on your phone anytime, anywhere.

Even now, you can still make money selling the points you’ve farmed on the secondary market. It’s like getting paid to mine.

The problem in the deep end isn’t a lack of users; crypto has already exhausted its pool of potential users.

The next users aren’t farming points on Twitter. They’re watching the Premier League, playing League of Legends, or following the ups and downs of US stocks.

Embedding Predict in Binance was the right move. It means I don’t have to leave the app to place an order.

Liquidity is the real barrier. If the order book is thin, I come in once, get hit with slippage, and never come back.

Yue Xiaoyu said the budget should shift from marketing to market making. That’s right. When I place orders to earn points, I’m also adding depth to the order book.

Without depth, even the liveliest campaign is just noise.

Fees on Dune have topped 21 million, with daily fees at 200,000.

Those aren’t user acquisition numbers. They’re proof that people are actually trading.

The deep end is tough, but it’s more interesting than continuing to fleece each other in crypto.

Trump: If we win the midterms, every American adult gets $5,000!

Yeah, right! Let’s look at the numbers:

The odds on Predict haven’t even moved a single point.

A Republican sweep is at 10%. A Democratic sweep is at 65%.

The Senate stays Republican, the House flips to the Democrats: 27%.

This market has seen 11.5 million U in trading volume. It’s not being ignored—people just don’t believe it.

At $5,000 for 240 million adults, that comes to $1.2 trillion.

Tariff revenue can’t cover that in a year. The promised $2,000 tariff rebate from the last round still hasn’t arrived. The market isn’t stupid.

Historically, not many presidents have lost both chambers at once.

If Trump becomes the next one, that 10% on Predict is practically free money. Looking at this market, I wouldn’t bet on a Republican sweep.

People’s Daily has made its position crystal clear this time.

The brake pedal bracket on the Huawei MAEXTRO V800 broke in the same place on three new cars during a test by Dongchedi. The official response was that it “exceeds national standards,” that “no actual users have experienced this in real-world use,” and that the test involved “non-standard extreme conditions.”

But People’s Daily put it straight on its trending list: a car’s brake pedal should never break while the car is being driven.

Safety is a red line. Four government departments have joined forces to say no to cars rushed to market.

A million-yuan car, just two months after launch, and its pedal bracket broke during emergency braking.

This wasn’t a one-off: it happened repeatedly on three cars from different batches.

The company says no actual users have encountered the problem. The testing outfit says this is a basic test, and rival models did not break under the same conditions.

The two sides tell different stories, but state media has already made its position clear: this cannot be dismissed as just a war of public opinion.

After Dongchedi released the test video, some questioned the testing method, while others asked whether the test was deliberately targeting the car.

Then People’s Daily singled out the phrase “cars rushed to market” and put it right on its homepage.

This move by ByteDance has taken the safety issue beyond a media spat and into the realm of regulation.

The race to compete in the new-energy vehicle industry has been moving too fast in recent years.

New brands, new platforms, new features—the launch cycle is now measured in months. Software can be updated over the air; structural components can’t.

When things like pedals, steering, and braking fail under extreme conditions, neither public opinion nor regulators will be satisfied with “no actual users have experienced this.”

When the safety red line is repeatedly emphasized, it’s usually not because of just one test, but because too many people think speed matters more than safety.

State media has made the point clear this time. What really matters now is how the issue is investigated, addressed, and regulated.

Has Predict’s pre-market price already hit $0.16?

There are currently two links for Predict pre-market trading, so make sure you don’t buy into the wrong pool.

The first image shows the old V2 pool. It’s been shut down, and you can’t open new positions there.

Your existing positions are still there and won’t automatically move to the new pool. You can sell them or wait for settlement at TGE.

The second image shows the pool that’s trading now: V3_Predict

It opened yesterday at 03:00 UTC.

It started at an $800 million FDV. It now has limit orders, with a 1.25% taker fee and a 1% maker fee. There are no liquidations, and trading can continue after TGE.

The settlement window lasts until 72 hours after TGE.

Don’t use the opening price as your anchor. This morning, it surged from an $800 million FDV to around $1.11 billion, then fell back to around $865 million. It’s already given back 20% from the high.

Back in April, this pre-market was still just over $300 million.

One really annoying problem right now is that if I sell my Key in the V2 pool, I’ll take a loss of nearly 1,000 USDT.

But I don’t have much money to put into the new pool either.

So, if I want to keep my position size unchanged, I’ll have to take a loss of 2,000–3,000 USDT.

Does anyone know what I should do, or have any good ideas? I’m online and getting pretty desperate.

The TGE date hasn’t been officially announced yet, but there are already lots of reports online saying it’s coming soon. Keep building and wait for a breakthrough.

Token2049 will be held in Singapore on October 7–8, and Predict will meet with everyone in person again this time.

There will be relevant exhibits and discussion sessions at both the main venue and the BNB Chain Super Meetup.

For friends who are interested in prediction markets, on-chain trading, and community development, this will be a good opportunity to connect face-to-face.

After the Hong Kong stop, Predict will once again come to the scene of an in-person event in the Asia-Pacific region.

Compared with only viewing information online, many things are still better suited for face-to-face conversation:

product experience, market strategies and gameplay, community feedback, and everyone’s real thoughts on prediction markets.

On the evening of October 7, there will also be a small community get-together jointly organized by NeoSoul and Bagel. Friends who are interested in the Predict ecosystem and prediction markets are welcome to exchange ideas.

If you happen to be in Singapore, you can come by and take a look, chat, and meet on the 7th and 8th.

Whether it’s your first time learning about Predict, or you’ve been following the order book and market mechanisms for a long time, you’re welcome to join the in-person discussion.

The White House red carpet is just wrapping up, and Predict’s midterm election odds have already tallied the books.

“Democrats sweep” is now 64%, with the Senate staying in Republican hands, and the House giving Democrats 30%.

A Republican sweep is down to just 6%. This position has traded about 10.9 million USD.

Almost nobody is betting on the House anymore—Kalshi and Polymarket are both above 92%.

The only thing still being priced is the Senate. The meeting on September 24 was more dramatic than the results.

Trump made an exception to go to the airport to receive the guests. A B-2 and an F-22 formation flew overhead, there was a state banquet, and even the giant panda—he said their relationship has never been this good.

But the odds aren’t factoring that in. The trade truce is only extended by another two months, through January 10, 2027—right to cover the November 3 voting day.

The list of tariff reductions is $30 billion each; AI will be discussed first, and the hard disagreements are still ahead.

So that 64% isn’t trading friendship.

It’s trading a political reality: midterm elections for the governing party usually mean losses—and this summit pushed the trade conflict beyond election day.

The Green Dragon series was won, but before the match, that pick—the first map—got completely broken.

ESL Pro League, Round 1: the world #1 Team Spirit vs world #77 ShindeN.

Before the match, the bookmakers had the Green Dragon at 1.26 to 1.40, the other side at 2.7 to 3.5—implied win probability about 75% to 80%.

The Green Dragon also came in on an 11-game win streak, and mainstream predictions went straight with 2:0.

In the end, the Green Dragon chose their strong map Dust2—11:13 first, then they lost. Nuke 13:11 to level it up, Mirage 13:4 to close it out—series 2:1.

The series odds didn’t flip, but the single-map odds did.

In the end, whoever bought the Green Dragon to win the series was right. But anyone who bought the idea that “the strong map won’t be dropped” got educated on the very first map.

The one sponsored by Binance is that ShindeN roster.

They didn’t sponsor the world #1 team’s jerseys—they sponsored the other side. Whenever they run into the Green Dragon, attention will come to them on its own.

This Dust2 already settled the account.

The esports market is most likely to die in places like this: the series favorite holds, but the map order gets blown up for the first round.

On Predict too, CS2 bets like this are separated—win/loss, maps, and handicaps aren’t the same bet. If you only place orders based on the team names, this match is just the sample.

@predictdotfun-华语

After Binance “tumbled,” many people ended up blaming Binance.

The projects Binance and YZi invested in have indeed profited more than they’ve lost.

The logic is simple: traffic, listings, and a niche/ecosystem position—these are real money.

That was what Aster did. But investing isn’t a guarantee.

When a project catches a tailwind, changes course, has its valuation pushed to a billion first, and then leaves right after the airdrop ends, in the end it still depends on whether it can stay and generate revenue.

Opinion dying here doesn’t mean that endorsing it was inherently false.

I personally didn’t go heavy on it back then.

Last year there were lots of projects that required invitations; from what I remember, few of them ended well.

A good project should want people to come in and play—not turn the tickets into scarce items.

The scheme is crystal clear: users buy expectations, and the project sells expectations.

If invitations keep people out and the experience is hard to use, then this deal was wrong from the start.

Predict early on wasn’t this kind of approach.

Polymarket lets users come in and do a trade, then directly gives them 200 points.

Low threshold, clear actions—people are brought in, not begged for invitation codes.

When Opinion cooled off, the token-launch expectations for Polymarket also basically disappeared.

As long as the prediction market is still there and token-launch expectations still exist, only Predict remains in that category.

People who were “farming” move battlefields not because they suddenly fell in love with it, but because other traps have already been filled.

It’s still not as good as Polymarket now, for two reasons:

One is inertia—nobody will move just because of a post, when you’re already using a familiar, convenient dApp.

One is that this track has hurt people: the one with the strongest token-launch expectations stopped, and then the next few ended up cutting people like dead dogs.

As a later entrant, people will be far more cautious about Predict.

I still see Predict as an epic-level project.

Not because it’s perfect—there are plenty of reasons to say it’s good, and just as many reasons to say it’s not. Those are all just excuses people place to justify their orders.

What I’m looking at is the track. Prediction markets are one of the few places that can still grow into a platform. The real chance to “get the meat” always comes down to one or two names in a great track.

If new prediction markets come later, I’ll join too—adding based on my understanding, not based on hype.

@predictdotfun

Discover a project, earn BNCB by posting

Some requirements, but not too strict

Make posting more meaningful

Chinese community-backed—enter cautiously!

I’ll try the waters first

$CASH

SR-CA6E6E881A98DAA39922C178

The 19th Ambassador Points Leaderboard is out.​​

This week’s top three are:

🥇 Monkey @web3houzi
🥈 The Disappointed Queen @love_doge123
🥉 Lion @lionman888888

Looking through it, there’s one common thread:

They don’t just generate presence by reposting official press releases—they really spend every day in the markets, watching matches, discussing prices, and writing post-mortems.

As for ambassador points, it’s not that complicated.

Only people who can consistently produce content can keep receiving points from the weekly pool.

Miss filling it in once, or go a few days without updates, and your ranking can drop out immediately.

Also, these points aren’t handed out out of thin air—at their core, they come from real trading. The community pool then takes another layer of distribution, and over the long run, the value will only keep increasing.

The official team is also still onboarding new people. The goal is to keep around 50 ambassadors who deliver stable weekly submissions.​​

With 3,000 followers, or your own community, plus 20,000 PP, you can try applying.

The prediction market has never lacked spectators.

What’s truly scarce is people who can explain the market depth, odds, and match logic clearly.

@Predictdotfun

A FOMO-like project on the BNB Chain—you can try it

0xb13003bf44de426dd2a3aae3df9c3400de0a7777

It’s weekend again, and Predict’s Football Match Weekend is back.

From the five major leagues, pick 5 matches—each locks 10 entries. The cutoff is before 9:30 PM on Saturday, and the prize pool for this week is still 10,000 U.

But it’s not just “guess who wins.”

Before kickoff, the lower the result price, the higher the multiplier is usually after you hit:

If the popular team wins, the match you guess might only be a safe way to secure points;

If you really want to climb the leaderboard, you often have to look at the draws and upsets that nobody dares to touch.

Last week made it pretty clear:

The more draws there were, the more the teams at the top of the leaderboard were basically people who had already tucked away low-priced outcomes.

So going all-in on strong teams is certainly steadier, but it’s not always easy to break into the front ranks.

What really creates the gap is often whether you dare to choose one or two outcomes that the market doesn’t seem to believe in.

During the World Cup, it was a burst of matchups; now there are fixed brackets every week. You can watch games and join in on the weekend—right on the pace.

These 5 tickets for this week aren’t locked yet, so remember to go to Match Weekend first and select your matches.

Don’t forget to confirm before the deadline—if you miss it, you’ll have to wait until next week.

Predict has opened maker rebate storefronts for itself—this is more important than it looks.

Now it’s not just rebates—you can also earn points.

The prediction market is still an excellent target. Yesterday, Poly Market’s share on it disappeared in 1 minute.

The contract market is currently valued at around 30 billion.

Predict is a project that has already been clearly defined as a coin—unlike Poly Market, it doesn’t keep circling around issues.

Even though the pre-market valuation is only 4 billion right now, I think there’s huge room.

And its integration with Binance isn’t just once or twice—basically it lives on Binance.

Previously, only crypto over/under markets got a 25% rebate. Now it also covers markets like politics, finance, the economy, and even weather, and it’s directly 30%.

This isn’t “free money again”—it’s solving a real problem.

Crypto over/under markets have high traffic and good depth, so market makers are willing to go in. The 25% is just icing on the cake.

But in politics, weather, culture, and similar markets, it’s often just you on the other side.

The spread is wide, there are few trades, cancellations are slow—inventory risk is all on you.

A 30% rebate, at its core, is compensating you for that risk premium.

In plain language: the official side doesn’t want all liquidity stacked on the $BTC 5-minute market. They’re using real money to pull you toward other markets.

Going forward, when you enter a market, first look for the “Maker Rebates” tag.

For markets with the tag, the cost of placing orders is a whole step lower than before. For ones without tags, it’ll still be thin.

What the rebate changes is whether you’re willing to place orders—it doesn’t change whether the market will hit you.

@predictdotfun

Opening Twitter is nothing but the same message—Binance Wallet Pre-Access, sold out in under a minute.

Here are the confirmed parameters:

$pPOLY unit price is $15.5, corresponding to an implied valuation of $15.5B?—155 亿 on Polymarket.

Actual sales are about 310,000 tokens, raising 4.8 million U.

Maximum capital to participate is 50 million; distributed pro-rata, the winning rate is roughly 9.6%.

Meanwhile, the wallet also listed POLYMARKET/USD1 perpetuals—pushing the price straight to $28, an 81% premium over the subscription price, implying a valuation of nearly 28B.

But both the trades and depth aren’t high—price comes first, liquidity hasn’t caught up yet.

You have to clearly separate three things here:

$pPOLY is an SPV equity certificate, not an official token.

The perpetual trade is for the “packaged” price. On Predict, people are betting on whether the official token’s FDV can clear $10B after one day of listing—right now it’s only given a 30% chance.

The three pricing tracks are clearly tiered:

Equity subscription: 15.5B (155 亿)
Perpetual order book: 28B
Official token FDV clearing $10B: 30%

These three prices are not looking at the same thing.

What you got is exposure. If you didn’t get in, don’t mix $pPOLY and $POLY into the same asset.

I want to place a bet on Predict and see whether this king/royalty-level project—does $500B really have a chance?

@Predictdotfun @predictdotfun-华语

I have a feeling that some妖币 will be coming out soon

Polymarket is coming—but not the one you think.

Binance Wallet is about to launch Pre-Access, and the first listing points to Polymarket. A contract called $pPOLY on BSC was deployed 11 days ago.

But first, let’s make this clear—this is not POLY the stock, and it’s not an official token.

It’s an indirect pre-IPO exposure made by Paimon: no voting rights, no dividend rights, and no direct claim against Polymarket.

Binance Wallet is just the entry point; it doesn’t issue or manage the asset.

A few key numbers:

Total supply: ~320,000 tokens. Subscription price: $15.5. Fundraising cap: 5 million U. Implied valuation: ~15.5 billion USD

It’s almost the same as the valuation implied by Polymarket’s funding round in April this year.

But the IPO order book on Predict tells a different story:

Listing in 2026: ~3%—almost nobody believes it

Listed by the end of 2027: ~50%—50/50

The market is willing to price in another round of funding, but it doesn’t think it will truly list anytime soon.

One side is “trade tickets” packaged as a pre-IPO product; the other side is the prediction market pricing in “whether it will list or not.”

The two order books are looking at different things. If you want to participate, first figure out whether you’re buying exposure—or betting on timing.

@predictdotfun-华语 @predictdotfun-华语

Will Polymarket actually issue tokens? This question has been asked for a year.

In October 2025, the founder hinted at a Solana address. The CMO said on a podcast, "There will be tokens, and there will be airdrops"—and then nothing happened.

This year in February, the parent company filed a POLY trademark. In July, they hired people to work on tokenomics models. Later, the负责人 was reportedly leaving the company.

The direction is actually not hard to read: Polymarket is now moving toward building compliant financial infrastructure—acquiring licensed markets, entering the ICE strategic investment, and strengthening compliance and risk control.

Compared with issuing a governance token, partnering for an IPO and with traditional finance is clearly higher priority.

Tokens would make the structure more complicated, so they’ve been pushed further back.

But there’s also no evidence that they’ve completely abandoned it. The trademark is still there, and early-funding token warrant options are still there too.

On Predict, the market odds are more direct than any analysis:

Token issuance by the end of 2026: about 6%—almost nobody believes it

By the end of June 2027: about 30%—a few people are still betting

One more thing to clarify: the $pPOLY on Binance Wallet and PancakeSwap recently is not an official Polymarket token.

That is Paimon’s pre-IPO indirect exposure. It has no voting rights and no dividend rights—don’t mix them up.

Do you think Polymarket will issue tokens?

@Predictdotfun

PONS is finally starting to dip.

But the core issue isn’t that the story has gone wrong—it’s that the books are starting to be balanced.

It’s a launcher on the Robinhood chain. Over the past 30 days, the fee revenue has reached the hundred-million scale. Daily revenue has been seen ranging from several hundred thousand to one or two million.

A portion of it goes straight to buybacks and burns—this is real money backing it up.

If you’ve played on-chain for long enough, you’ll develop a certain judgment: the ones that can make it through this cycle—$HYPE, Lighter, and $UNI—share one common trait: high revenue.

Who can keep making money is the one who has the right to be repeatedly repriced.

Pure narrative trading is lively for a while and then disperses; only the cash-cow plays get slammed and then taken up again.

So the focus isn’t on any single red candle.

Check whether the fees are still there, whether buybacks are still there, and whether the supply/share has fallen.

If those things drop, no matter how loud the narrative gets, it won’t matter. If they’re still there, selling pressure is often just switching hands.

On Predict, some people are already setting the FDV for PONS before November. The 700 million tier is currently the most hotly disputed spot.

Spot trading reflects current sentiment, while the prediction market trades whether it can continue to be treated as a cash cow.

The two are not looking at the same thing.