Mek

Acabou. ✅

Como esperado. Cenário com baixa vol persistente como estávamos no início de agosto possui vida curta na história.

Entretanto, no meu ver, acho que essa expansão de vol ainda não terminou. O que exige ainda mais atenção do investidor.

Muita gente acha que rendimento de títulos longos é apenas precificação de inflação futura.

Mas não é.

Essa subida de juros longos nos EUA e mundo, está bastante deslocada nas expectativas futuras de inflação.

O motivo é crise de desconfiança em dívida governamental.

E pouca gente realmente entende isso. Possuir ativos escassos é questão de sobrevivência nesse "novo normal".

BITCOIN DESTROYS SHORT POSITIONS AND CONTINUES UP 🚨

As signaled yesterday, the bullish structure that began with spot buying intensified with the liquidation of short positions, and we had a classic SHORT SQUEEZE.

More than $3 BILLION in short positions were liquidated in crypto over the past 24 hours.

Those short positions were close and got busted, but the price seems to want to target the next region, which extends up to $77K.

Below the current price, we left a large area of long positions between 60-62k, and after that, a bigger one at $57k.

Since spot buy pressure is still high, we can’t expect a quick return to the lower regions. So if you missed the move, be cautious when adding a sell here.

The thesis I shared over the past 2 weeks about a local bottom and volatility expansion has materialized. But now navigating in high volatility is even more complex.

Liquidity moves markets. We’re staying with it.

🇺🇸 White House Crypto Summit Recap:

• President Trump says the U.S. is considering buying “significant” amounts of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

• Trump asks Congress to pass the Crypto Clarity Act.

• Trump says the U.S. is ensuring it remains the “undisputed leader” in $BTC and crypto.

• Hyperliquid $HYPE rises 15% to $69 after Trump says the CFTC is working to bring it to the U.S.

• SEC Chairman Paul Atkins says, “We will ensure that the biggest advances at the technological frontier are made right here in America.”

• Gemini co-founders say, “America should lead in crypto and win in the market.”

• Trump says he “ended the war on crypto once and for all.”

Simple and to the point.

For you, did $BTC bottom out—yes or no?

Anyone who sees and doesn’t respond is soft.

Detail that I forgot to mention in the previous post.👇

We had the LARGEST SHORT LIQUIDATION in bitcoin in ALL OF HISTORY.

It was the first time that the amount of liquidations exceeded $$ 1 BILLION in bitcoin.

Even with a move of "only" 7%.

The number of pessimists was absurd.

We have just registered the THIRD LARGEST liquidation of crypto derivatives futures in 2026. 🚨

Nearly $2 BILLION in open futures positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.

Just over $1 billion was only in bitcoin.

Pessimistic traders were OBLITERATED.

The U.S. Treasury has just doubled the size of long-term debt buyback operations. 🚨

This is direct intervention in the interest-rate market, not routine technical adjustment.

Starting September 9, the repurchase operations in 10- to 30-year notes increase from US$ 2 billion to at least US$ 4 billion per operation.

The stated reason is to support liquidity after a rapid rise in long-term yields.

The famous “QE” that “isn’t QE.”

Controlling the yield curve through liquidity intervention is exactly what reveals the crisis of confidence in Treasuries.

We do not have enough scarce assets.

Right, left, center. It doesn’t matter who sits in the chair—the debt rises and the money multiplies.

Since FHC, every president who has left office has left the country more indebted in relation to GDP than they received.

M2 took the same path. It went from R$ 0.40 trillion in 2002 to R$ 7.65 trillion today. All this new money needs to compete for the same goods and services as always.

Change the party, change the campaign message. The printer never changes governments.

Protect yourself from Brazil risk is a matter of survival.

O $BTC goes to US$ 70.000, $ETH to US$ 2.500 and $BNB to US$ 820

There are currently two types of investors in this market.

Those who understand what this chart means.

And those who have no idea.

Only one of them will be able to protect themselves from what’s coming.

But it won’t be easy.

Are you paying attention?

"friendly reminder" that September brings the weakest accumulated performance of Bitcoin when looking from 2015 to today.

But as you go through this period, there are the 3 best months in history.

We’re very close to a new peak in volatility.

Place your bets.

3.3% of the USA’s GDP is interest payments on the debt. the highest level in history.

They spend more on interest than on defense.

Anyone who thinks the Fed can raise rates much higher just ignores the fiscal factor (or doesn’t understand economics).

Peak Hawkish + liquidity is coming

The American job market is weaker than it seems.🚨

Excluding the pandemic, the American workforce is at its lowest level since March 1976. This doesn’t show up in the unemployment number everyone looks at.

The participation rate fell 0.1 percentage point in July to 61.4%. It was the 7th monthly decline in 8 months, a cumulative drop of 1.1 points.

Since November, more than 2.4 million people have left the workforce, including 264 thousand just in July and 720 thousand in June.

People leaving the workforce don’t count as unemployed. They simply disappear from the count—which is why the unemployment rate can look stable while the real job market is shrinking underneath.

Performance of the Brazilian real isn’t strength—it’s leverage.

The cost of borrowing Japanese yen is one of the lowest on the planet. While the interest rate on the real is one of the highest.

Carry trade is propping up the Brazilian real, but will that last for much longer?

46% of all Bitcoins are held in self-custody

Advanced traders are holding the largest net LONG position in bitcoin in history. 🔥

In traditional commodities, the “smart money” is usually the commercial trader, who uses the asset in the real operations of the business.

Bitcoin has no such players at a relevant scale, so the large non-commercial speculator takes on that role in the CFTC report.

Note that this type of participant has often been heavily net long right from local bottom regions since 2022

"bitcoin will probably be closer to $100 than to $100k in 2028"

That’s what Harvard’s economist said in 2018.

This makes me remember that degrees aren’t the same thing as intelligence.

Knowledge isn’t the same thing as intelligence.

There are 2 years left until his prediction, and my bet is that we’ll be well above $100,000.

Few people paying attention to one of the most important macro charts of today.👇

The Surprise Index in Jobs and Inflation tends to lead the Fed’s discourse in about 1 month.

Both are already coming in on the downside.

Whoever is betting on a more "restrictive" Fed in the future is simply ignoring the data.

We’re probably at the PEAK of the hawkish narrative.

Liquidity is coming

The share of tokenized stock in the total market value of real assets (RWA) increased from approximately 1.4% to more than 15% over the year (from July 2025 to July 2026).