华尔街之猫-DQ

Finance with wisdom, knowing when to hold and when to let go; prioritize risk control before seeking returns.

Daily in-depth market analysis, with exclusive one-on-one guidance;
Adhere to long-term, steady appreciation, and reject short-term speculation and games of chance.

Plan first, then act; know when to stop, and you’ll gain.
I am Ding Qing—together with you on this long journey through the market.

First, let me state my view—I still maintain my previous opinion unchanged!

Many of my short-sellers friends may be a bit disappointed; the decline structure that was expected for the big one has not played out.

The market has tested the support at 78643 downward multiple times, but it never managed to break through. At around 786, it directly formed a triple-bottom pattern.

As long as the subsequent pullback does not break through this support at 786, the bearish structure cannot be established.

Within the channel, a W-bottom pattern has now formed, with the neckline at 795. If the big one wants to launch a rebound, first it needs to break above the pressure at 795. After that break, we can look at 805 first, and then at around 813 as marked by the arrow.

Once 805 is firmly held, the W-bottom on the hourly timeframe is officially in place, and the upward momentum will be further amplified.

If it can’t fall further, then most likely it will turn into a rebound scenario!

If it fails to break above 805, and at the same time cannot break below 786, then the price will continue to get trapped within the channel and keep ranging back and forth.

Only if it comes through 805 with strong volume, breaking the entire consolidation range of 786–805, and forms even higher highs, will there be enough confidence to challenge the 813 resistance level.

Once the trend is established, it won’t easily reverse.

Trading plan reference:
If the big one breaks out above 795 with increased volume, the aggressive traders can follow the move;
If it breaks below 78643 with increased volume, and the rebound can’t be recovered, then look to short in line with the trend—make sure to set and follow proper stop-losses.

When the hourly chart holds above 795, the Northbound target is 805–813.

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Even though the price of the big pancake is lower than yesterday today, it hasn’t broken out of its original trading range.

On the 4-hour timeframe, it has once again retraced to the key trendline, and support is holding for the moment.

The “yiyi” (coin)走势 is in sync as well, showing a small triangle consolidation structure near the trendline.

From a technical pattern perspective, things are leaning bullish. This is also why I went long around 790 last night (started a game and got carried away… I entered at a somewhat high position…).

Now let’s look at the broader market:

After “Trump” spoke, oil prices pulled back, and the cooling in oil is favorable for US stocks.

Tonight, when US stocks open, there’s a chance to break the current sideways range.

If US stocks move higher in the same direction, then our big pancake may have another opportunity to challenge the 820 level.

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788 goals have been reached, pay attention to reduce positions and exit.

$BTC #美伊互袭油轮冲突升级 #Zcash周涨45%创2016年来新高

Take 1500 points in hand
You can’t hold above the 80,000 level; there’s no need to rush to exit the short position you’re holding.
The plan for this afternoon was explained clearly. If key levels can’t be broken through, just hold along with the momentum.

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The fake breakout of the big pancake has formed a bearish flag, and now it has fallen back inside the pattern.

Why did the rebound stop exactly at 80,000? Because there were a lot of short orders stacked at 80,000. The spike up swept out that liquidity, but follow-through buying didn’t come in, so price naturally pulled back.

On the hourly chart, you can see the highs and lows are gradually moving higher. As long as the pullback does not break below the flag or make a new low, there is still rebound demand on the hourly level. Once it breaks below the flag and makes a new low, this rising structure is invalid.

Now just wait for a pullback, retest the lower edge of the flag and the support area near 788, and enter after a signal appears.

To keep rising, it must hold above 80,000 to have a chance to challenge 813. If it cannot hold, then forget about a rebound. Aggressive traders can wait for a breakout above 80,000 and follow it directly.

If it cannot get above 80,000 and also cannot break below 788, then it will basically continue to consolidate in this range.

For the trading plan, you can refer to:

Break above 80,000 and aggressively go long with the trend

Break below 795, and if the rebound cannot recover, then go short with the trend

Set your stop loss properly!

If the hourly candlestick holds above 80,000, the target is 805-813; if the 4-hour chart breaks below 795, look at 788 below

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71609 entered, 81056 exited; this trade netted 9447 points and 45171 oil.

This round of market action pushed up to the northbound target near 83000—only about 800 points away.

This position wasn’t guessed. It was waited for.

At the end of June and the beginning of July, the whole market was bearish. I kept repeating one line:

The bottom of the big coin has been rising. As long as the 610 level isn’t effectively broken through, the big picture remains upward. Anyone can look up those posts from back then.

Once the direction is right, the rest is actually simple—just get a good entry point, and then you’re done.

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Big pancake breaks out above 815—then you can consider adding a little more exposure on the right side.

If it breaks below 804, and the rebound can’t get back up, then don’t rush.

On the hourly chart, if price holds above 815, the upside target is around 828. If it can’t get through 815 and won’t stay firm, then the space above will be very limited.

On the 4-hour chart, if it breaks below 804, you’ll see 792 as the pullback target on the downside.

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781 chasing, currently showing a floating profit of 800 points.

$BTC #比特币难破8万美元 #

It’s better to be a bit more prudent with the single-order strategy—tonight’s plan is basically like this: focus on the effectiveness of the 778 level.

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780's short sell order has entered, waiting for a big breakout 🙂‍↔️

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Many people don’t understand counterfeits—remember one line: counterfeits play on the window of opportunity.

Big “real” Ethereum is like a big tree that grows for a long time; most counterfeits are like crops with a growth cycle.
Enter during a window when the overall market conditions are friendly, wait for its short-term explosive power to outperform the big one, and then leave immediately—delete it from your watchlist.

There are also a few counterfeits that can run through an entire bull market—for example, SOL from the previous cycle, which saw gains of tens of times during the mega bull market.
But the difficulty is that there are too many counterfeits; information is messy and the noise is everywhere, making it extremely hard to choose correctly.

Don’t go in thinking you’ll hold counterfeits long-term; most counterfeits are only suitable for short-term trading and speculation.

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There's no need to overthink whether the market is truly turning from bear to bull right now, or if it's merely a rebound—the meaning isn't that significant.

Just follow the current market conditions. Combine them with your own position size, profit/loss status, and risk tolerance to decide your position sizing and choose the right assets.

Your position size determines your room for stop-loss and potential profit, while the asset you hold determines your holding experience and your margin for error.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are like century-old trees: slow but steadily upward over the long term. Most altcoins are like one-season or two-season rice—harvest comes once, and the next season may not grow back. Land is limited; most altcoins carry a long-term risk of going to zero.

Hold BTC/ETH spot positions and keep them steady to capture the bull-market beta.

Keep a portion of your capital as a tactical, flexible position to catch the altcoin opportunity window for speculation and aim for outperformance.

One horizon looks at the next two years, while the other looks at only a few weeks or a couple of months.

The exit signal for this round of speculation: BTC’s daily-line MACD shows divergence.

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Early-morning “big pancake” made a false breakout from the range box, surged to 791, then fell back into the range. The morning wick pierced but did not break below 768’s prior low—this is a positive.

Hold 768. On the hourly chart there’s a chance to form a double bottom, but you must reclaim and stay above the range box for the double bottom to be considered valid. Resistance is at 791 and 798.

If it breaks 768 directly, then support is at 755.

As long as 755 doesn’t break, the market is still controllable. Once 755 breaks, the hourly bullish structure is likely to collapse, making it easy to run into a waterfall move.

Plan: Watch 768 for a bottom-formation signal and then go long; if it breaks through decisively, look for 755—wait for the false break to be reclaimed before considering longs.

Short term: If it trades with volume and holds above 779, aggressive longs are possible. Targets: 784‑793.
If it breaks below 773 and the rebound can’t be recovered, then go short again. Make sure to use a stop-loss.

$BTC #美国约6700万人持有加密货币

After the weekly strong bullish candle, the big cake officially faces a crucial test.
This rally is stronger than a typical rebound, but to confirm a large-scale trend reversal, it needs to hold the support firmly and break above 850

This week, it surged to a high of 815, then pulled back and closed with a long upper wick; the selling pressure above 80k is not small.

The medium-term moving averages are trending well, and the MACD has formed a golden cross; however, short-term indicators are severely overbought. Chasing higher prices isn’t cost-effective. A pullback and consolidation would be more favorable for the subsequent uptrend.

ETF fund flows have shifted from inflow to outflow. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar have rebounded. The market is once again debating a September rate hike, and disagreements over capital have increased.

In the future, there are three possible paths:
✅ Hold 735‑750; after a strong consolidation, then push up again toward 840‑850
✅ Pull back to 700‑720 and stabilize—this is a healthy pullback to confirm
❌ If the weekly chart breaks below 700, the trend weakens. Then it may look toward 650‑680. If 6400 is lost, the logic behind this round of the uptrend is shattered

Only if it can hold 850 on increased volume—together with favorable alignment between capital and macro factors—will there be a chance to move toward 880‑920

For now, it’s best to stay on the sidelines and wait for the weekly pullback, observing how strong the support and takeover are above 700.

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As I said, 792 needs to hold to have a chance of a rebound; otherwise, testing 777-764.

Last night, the big pie crashed hard—fundamentally, this can be understood as the main force managing liquidity.

Before lifting the market, liquidity is added; before dumping, liquidity is withdrawn early.

When liquidity is insufficient and market absorption is weak, it’s easy to get price spikes and a rapid drop.

It’s actually not too bad—it hasn’t reached my defensive level.

In the short term, the big pie is likely to keep consolidating upward and will probably try again at the 820 pressure point.

But judging from trading volume and capital flow, there isn’t enough momentum on the current board, so I don’t have high expectations for a direct breakout.

Overall, the probability of effectively holding and breaking through 820 isn’t high.
Even if the price briefly pushes above 820, if the trading volume and incoming funds can’t keep up, the market is likely to spike up and then pull back—then return to test the key support around 750.

At this stage, there’s no rush to place bearish orders at low levels. Wait until it rallies to the higher range, and then shorting will have safer conditions.

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Wosh Speech Key Points

1. Inflation Remains the Top Challenge
Current PCE inflation is 3.7%, still a long way from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and the inflation problem has not been fully resolved.

2. The U.S. Economy Remains Relatively Strong
Businesses are increasing investment and expansion, with earnings growth exceeding 20%. Overall financial conditions have not tightened, and economic resilience remains strong.

3. AI Boosts Economic Growth
Among this year’s新增 corporate investments, more than half of the funds are going to artificial intelligence. AI will clearly drive subsequent economic growth.

4. Don’t Give the Market a Head Start
Wosh believes the Federal Reserve should make fewer long-term interest-rate forecasts so that policy can stay flexible and respond to economic data changes at any time.

5. Rate Cuts Are Not a Certainty
It is necessary to see inflation continuing and steadily moving back toward 2% before the Federal Reserve considers rate cuts, and it will not “open the floodgates” in advance.

$BTC #加州通过法案拟禁官员发行Meme币

After the big pancake breaks through the trading range box and makes a new high, the price has never been able to hold above the top edge of the box at 808. It then slid lower in a steady downtrend and is now testing the 792 support.

If 792 holds, there is still a chance for a rebound;
Once 792 breaks, the 808–792 range structure will fail, and the next target will be 777.

On the hourly chart, there is an M-head structure inside the range box, with the neckline at 777.
Holding 777 provides some buffer; once there is an effective breakdown, the M-head will form and the downside will extend further. The next area to watch is the lower edge of the box at 764.

To end the current mild downtrend, the only way is a strong rally to reclaim above 808—then there is a chance to restart the rebound;
If it can’t get back above 808 for a long time, the downtrend will most likely continue.

Short-term reference:
If it trades up above 796 on strong volume, an aggressive trader can follow through and go long;
If it breaks below 791 on strong volume and the rebound can’t reclaim the level, then go short in line with the trend. Make sure to set your stop loss.

On the hourly chart, if it holds above 796, the upside targets are 805–815. If it can’t hold up, it’s hard for the rally to continue.
On the 4-hour chart, if it breaks below 790, the downside targets are 777–764

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The big pancake trend basically meets expectations. After holding the support of the fourth segment, it then began to push upward and challenge the previous high.

This time, however, the spike only reached 815, which is some distance away from the planned short entry around 827, so the short order hasn’t been able to be placed yet.

At present, each of the three consecutive recent highs has formed an upper shadow, and the chart is already showing a topping signal.

That said, there are still news events in the evening, and I plan to gamble a bit on a news-driven move that pushes the price up for another round.

The divergence on the 4-hour chart has basically been digested. If it pushes to make new highs again, it’s easy to form a second top divergence. At that point, setting up a short would be safer.

So for now, there’s no rush to open a short directly.

I’ll prioritize waiting for the news to give momentum. After the price spikes and closes above 827, then I’ll consider entering a short.

Even if this wave of price action drops directly and I miss the entry, that’s still acceptable.$BTC #64亿美元比特币期权到期 #波场主网激活TVM布拉格大阪兼容

SNDK current market structure:
In the early phase, it has already broken through an important support.
Today’s price has turned back and tested this level again.
Now it has formed a diagonal support.

Once 1450 is broken below, the support is considered invalid.
Next, look at 1400, and further down the target is 1300.

To turn the market strong and go long,
we need to hold above 1575. This is both today’s high
and the 0.7 Fibonacci pressure level.

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