玲峰资本

超级大熊市的惨烈程度超乎想象。比特币四年减半的核心周期始终恒定不变。本次减半落地于2024年4月20日。行业规律是减半后第18个月抵达行情最高点，随后开启长达12个月的深度下跌，直至触达周期最低位。2025年10月恰好是减半后的第18个月，本轮比特币峰值定格12.62万美金。紧接着为期一整年的暴跌，最终在2026年10月6日探明本轮绝对底部。不过底部区间会持续震荡盘整，因此2026年末至2027年初都是布局比特币的黄金窗口期，底部价格区间锁定3至6万美金。上一轮牛熊回落最大跌幅约77%，2021年11月高点6.9万美金，一路下跌至2022年11月1.55万美金，在两万美金下方横盘筑底三个月。参照历史规律，2026年末是最佳布局节点。本轮高点12.62万美金，77%跌幅对应的价格约2.9万美金，三万美金就是本次周期的核心铁底，极端行情下存在短暂跌破三万的可能，整体最低区间稳定在3至6万美金，且必然跌破上一轮牛市6.9万的历史高点。当币价回落至3至6万区间，必须果断梭哈入场。严格守住三个入场条件：2026年10月之后、价格处于3-6万美金、恐慌指数跌至10左右，三者同时满足，交易盈利概率接近99%。随后长期持有，等待2029年比特币冲高至15至25万美金区间全部出货。2026年末市场会充斥各类负面杂音，比特币死亡论、算力攻击崩盘论会大肆传播，市场不再是无人关注，而是全网一致看空、判定比特币泡沫彻底破裂。就像当下多数人无法想象超级大熊市，也如同上一轮币价1.55万、跌破2017年2万高点时，所有人深陷恐慌，质疑比特币能否重回10万、15万美金。但当时周期测算早已确定会突破十万大关，本轮行情冲高至12.62万美金完全符合预期，只是未能触及15万目标，本轮最大涨幅8倍。综合所有周期规律，2026年末是比特币绝佳梭哈机会。

The severity of the “Great Bear Market” is beyond imagination. The core cycle of Bitcoin’s four-year halving has always remained constant. This halving took place on April 20, 2024. Industry patterns indicate that 18 months after a halving is when the market reaches its highest point; afterward, a deep and prolonged decline lasting for up to 12 months begins, continuing until it touches the cycle’s lowest level. October 2025 is exactly the 18th month after the halving, and this cycle’s Bitcoin peak is set at $126,200. Immediately afterward comes a year-long brutal selloff, and the absolute bottom of this cycle is finally confirmed on October 6, 2026. However, the bottom zone will continue to trade sideways with volatility. Therefore, from late 2026 to early 2027 is the golden window for accumulating Bitcoin, with the bottom price range locked at $30,000 to $60,000. In the previous bull-bear reversal, the maximum drawdown was about 77%. The November 2021 high was $69,000, then the price slid all the way down to $15,500 by November 1, 2022, moving sideways to form a base for three months below $20,000. According to historical patterns, late 2026 is the best accumulation point. With this cycle’s peak at $126,200, a 77% drop implies a price around $29,000. That is, $30,000 is the core iron floor of this cycle. In extreme market conditions, there is a possibility of briefly dipping below $30,000. Overall, the lowest range should stabilize at $30,000 to $60,000, and it will inevitably break below the historical all-time high of the previous bull market at $69,000. When the coin price falls back into the $30,000 to $60,000 zone, you must decisively go all-in. Strictly adhere to three entry conditions: after October 2026, the price is in the $30,000–$60,000 range, and the fear index drops to around 10—only when all three are met simultaneously will the probability of trading profit be close to 99%. Then hold long-term, waiting to sell everything when Bitcoin surges again in 2029 and reaches the $150,000 to $250,000 range. In late 2026, the market will be flooded with all kinds of negative noise: theories of Bitcoin’s death, or claims that a collapse from a hashrate attack will occur—these will spread widely. At that time, the market will no longer be ignored by most people. Instead, the entire internet will be in unanimous bearish mode, concluding that the Bitcoin bubble has been thoroughly burst. It’s just like what most people can’t imagine today about a super bear market; similarly, during the last cycle when the price was $15,500 and it fell below the $20,000 high from February 2017, everyone was trapped in panic and questioned whether Bitcoin could ever return to $100,000 or $150,000. But back then, the cycle calculations had already confirmed a breakout beyond the $100,000 threshold. This time, the rally rising to $126,200 fully matches expectations—it simply didn’t reach the $150,000 target. The maximum gain of this cycle is 8x. Combining all cycle rules, late 2026 is an outstanding all-in opportunity for Bitcoin.

行情历史高度相似，投资者反复犯错，从不总结过往经验。比特币四年减半规律稳定运行，当前每十分钟出块3.125枚，总量2100万枚，已接近2000万枚产出，剩余币种2140年挖完。本轮熊市一定会跌破上一轮6.9万美金牛市高点，周期规律清晰：每轮熊市低点必破前高，7万位置形成强力支撑。跌破支撑后出现有效反弹，但整体大周期依旧下行。复盘历年回撤，2017年2万高点暴跌85%，2021年6.9万高点回撤77%至1.55万美金。本轮跌幅不及77%，底部守住3万美金，65%下跌对应底部4.5万美金。3至6万美金是最佳抄底区间，6万下方最大浮亏50%，6万跌到3万已是极致行情。6万以下不适合盲目抄底，也无需过度看空，本轮底部大概率落在3至5万美金。2025年10月6日见顶12.62万美金，一年熊市周期，2026年10月抵达周期低点，随后数月震荡磨底、全网极致恐慌。年底时间窗口、3-6万价格、10恐慌指数满足即可布局。长期持有至2029年，15-25万美金出货，获利2-8倍。SOL、HYPE等王炸币种爆发力极强，但大资金重仓标的永远是比特币，掌控六成市场份额。所有项目方终极目的都是收割散户比特币，比特币才是加密市场终极形态。

当下没人能够想象即将到来的大熊市有多惨烈。比特币四年一轮的减半周期，始终保持稳定不变。本次区块减半落地于2024年4月20日。市场固定运行节奏清晰：减半后第十八个月迎来牛市最高点，随后十二个月持续杀跌回调，直至完成周期筑底。2025年10月精准对应减半后第18个月，本轮比特币牛市最高价格定格12.62万美金。紧接着为期一整年的深度下跌行情，最终在2026年10月6日锁定本轮周期绝对底部。底部不会快速反转拉升，会经历漫长的横盘磨底阶段，所以2026年年底、2027年年初，都可以放心布局比特币，底部价格区间维持3至6万美金。回顾上一轮牛熊轮回走势，比特币最大回撤幅度77%，2021年11月冲高至6.9万美金，2022年11月暴跌至1.55万美金低位，在两万美金下方持续盘整三个月。按照历史规律推演，2026年末是最优梭哈布局时间。本轮高点12.62万美金，77%暴跌幅度对应的价格是2.9万美金，三万美金是本次周期的核心支撑底线，极端行情可能短暂破位三万，整体底部区间为3至6万美金，且必然跌破上一轮牛市6.9万美金高点。一旦比特币跌至3-6万核心低位区间，务必果断全仓进场。入场需同时满足三个关键条件：2026年10月之后、币价3-6万美金、恐慌指数10上下，三项标准全部达标，整体盈利概率高达99%。长期持仓至2029年，比特币上涨至15至25万美金区间即可全部出货止盈。2026年末市场舆论会陷入极致悲观，比特币死亡论调、算力崩盘阴谋论会席卷全网，市场从冷清无人问津，转变为全网集体看空、笃定泡沫彻底破裂。当下市场所有人都无法预判大熊市的到来，正如上一轮1.55万美金低位、跌破2017年两万高点时，市场极度恐惧，没人相信比特币能重回10万、15万美金。但周期测算早已预判十万美金行情落地，本轮12.62万高点完全符合推演结果，仅止步于15万之下

The severity of the decline in Bear City completely exceeds expectations, but the Bitcoin four-year halving cycle has always run on a steady, uninterrupted track. The official halving occurred on April 20, 2024. Historical cycle规律: the 18th month after the halving forms the cycle’s peak, followed by 12 months of continuous plunge to a market-bottom trough. The timing matches with precision: October 2025 is the 18th month after the halving, and in this run Bitcoin surged to a high of $126,200. Then it enters a full-year deep retracement. The final bottom of this cycle is locked to October 6, 2026. Because historical bottoms require a long period of sideways consolidation and grinding, the period from late 2026 to early 2027 is a perfect window for positioning. The bottom price range for this cycle is between $30,000 and $60,000. Looking back at the previous bull-bear transition, Bitcoin’s maximum drop was 77%: the bull market peak of 69,000 USD on November 6, 2021 crashed down to a low of 15,500 USD on November 1, 2022, then traded sideways under 20,000 USD for three months. Applying a 77% retracement from the 126,200 USD peak in this cycle suggests the bottom is around 29,000 USD; $30,000 is the strongest defensive bottom in this cycle. In extreme conditions, it could briefly break lower. The bottom range for this cycle is $30,000–$60,000, which will inevitably break through the previous cycle’s bull-market peak of 69,000 USD. If the price falls back into the $30,000–$60,000 range, you must decisively go all-in. There are three non-negotiable entry conditions: after October 2026, the price is $30,000–$60,000, and the fear index is around 10. With all three conditions met, the probability of profit is 99%. Hold patiently until 2029, then sell in batches at high levels of $150,000–$250,000. By the end of 2026, the entire internet will be flooded with all kinds of negative rumor chatter—talk of Bitcoin’s collapse, arguments about a compute-power crisis, and so on—widely spreading. The market shifts from being cold and ignored by no one to everyone being bearish, with the bubble of pessimism breaking. Just like today no one can foresee a super bull market, and just like the previous cycle when it fell below the 20,000 USD bottom in 2017 and sank to 15,500 USD, the market was in extreme fear and didn’t dare to believe Bitcoin could break through $100,000 and $150,000. But cycle rules won’t fail: this time it successfully holds above $100,000 and peaks at $126,200. The eightfold rise fits the cycle rhythm—only the $150,000 target remains. Therefore, the end of 2026 is the best all-in bottom-catching point for this Bitcoin cycle.

The brutal market conditions of the super bear phase are hard to predict, but Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle runs on an unchanging timetable. This halving occurred on April 20, 2024. The cycle rules are clear: the eighteenth month after the halving marks a new cycle high, followed by twelve consecutive months of deep downside until the lowest bottom is confirmed. The timing is precisely aligned: October 2025 is the eighteenth cycle month after the halving, when Bitcoin hit a phase peak of $126,200. After that, throughout the following year, there is sustained deep retracement. The cycle’s lowest point is locked in for October 6, 2026. All historical major bottoms require a long period of sideways digestion, so the optimal accumulation window is at the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. This round’s ultimate bottom range is $30,000 to $60,000. Looking back at the previous bull-to-bear pullback, Bitcoin’s maximum drop was about 77%: the high of 69,000 on November 6, 2021 fell to a low of $15,500 in November 2022. It then consolidated for three months below the $20,000 level to complete the bottom. In this round, the $126,200 high retraces 77%, implying a theoretical bottom around $29,000. The $30,000 support is the core strong support, and in extreme market conditions, a brief breakdown is possible. This round’s bottom range of $30,000 to $60,000 will definitely break through the previous bull cycle’s $69,000 high. When the price falls into the $30,000–$60,000 range, it is a high-certainty all-in opportunity. The three entry criteria must all be met: after October 2026, the price is in the $30,000–$60,000 range, and the panic index is around 10. When all three conditions are satisfied, the probability of profitability reaches 99%. Hold long-term into 2029, and take profit in batches at high levels of $150,000 to $250,000. By the end of 2026, major market bearish news will erupt in a concentrated burst: narratives about Bitcoin going to zero, and warnings about hash-rate risks will flood the market. The market will shift from being ignored by nobody to a collective panic sell-off. Just like how people today can hardly imagine a super bull market, and similarly to the previous cycle—when Bitcoin broke below the 2017 two-tenths-thousand bottom and fell to $15,500, when the market was extremely fearful and nobody believed Bitcoin could break $100,000 and $150,000. But the cycle pattern fulfills on schedule. This time, Bitcoin successfully holds above the $100,000 level and surged as high as $126,200—an eightfold increase that matches cycle expectations. It only remains short of the $150,000 ultimate target. So at the end of 2026, that’s the most solid “all-in, bottom-picking” window for this Bitcoin cycle.

Bear City’s terrifying sell-off force is beyond imagination, yet Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle has never deviated. The halving was completed on April 20, 2024. The historical pattern is clear: the cycle’s major top appears on the 18th month after the halving, followed by a deep decline that reaches the cycle bottom over the next 12 months. The timing is precisely projected: October 2025 is the 18th cycle node after the halving, and Bitcoin’s peak for this round is $126,200. Then a deep pullback throughout the year sets in. The lowest bottom for this cycle is locked in on October 6, 2026. This historic bottom is bound to go through long-term consolidation and grinding lower; the optimal opportunity for positioning is by late 2026 and early 2027. Bitcoin’s ultimate bottom range for this cycle is $30,000 to $60,000. Revisiting the last bull-bear transition: Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown was 77%. It fell from the high of $69,000 on November 6, 2021 to $15,500 on November 1, 2022. It then moved sideways below $20,000 for three months. This time, after a 77% retracement from the $126,200 high, the theoretical bottom is $29,000, while $30,000 is the extreme defensive level—an extreme market could briefly break below it. With this cycle’s bottom at $30,000 to $60,000, it is inevitable to break through the previous high of $69,000. When the price falls back to the $30,000–$60,000 range, decisively go all-in. Three entry conditions: after October 2026, the price is in the $30,000–$60,000 range, and the fear index is around 10. If all are met, the probability of profit is 99%. Hold until 2029, then sell in batches between $150,000 and $250,000. By the end of 2026, negative news floods the market—talk of Bitcoin going to zero and a computing power crisis spreads everywhere online. The market shifts from cold and lackluster to a full-blown bearish bubble bursting. Just like the current moment where no one predicts a super bull market, and just like the last cycle when it broke below the $20,000 bottom in 2017 and sank to $15,500, when the whole internet was in extreme panic and no one believed in a $100,000 or $150,000 scenario. Yet the cycle’s iron law is delivered as scheduled. This time it holds above $100,000 and reaches as high as $126,200. The eightfold rally fits the cycle rhythm and does not reach the $150,000 target. Therefore, late 2026 is the best “all-in” window for a four-year Bitcoin bottom-buy in this cycle.

The severity of the situation in Bear City is beyond imagination, but Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle never changes. This round of halving took effect on April 20, 2024. According to historical patterns, the cycle’s highest peak occurs in the 18th month after the halving, followed by a sustained 12-month plunge that reaches the annual low. In terms of the corresponding time points, October 2025 is precisely the 18th month after the halving, and Bitcoin’s peak in this round reaches $126,200. Then it begins a full year of deep decline, with the ultimate bottom precisely on October 6, 2026. Since historical market bottoms must remain range-bound for a long time to form a base, both late 2026 and early 2027 are excellent windows to position for Bitcoin. The price range of this round’s bottom is locked at $30,000 to $60,000. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown was about 77%: in November 2021 it crashed from $69,000 to $15,500 in November 2022. It then traded sideways below $20,000 for nearly three months. With this round’s high at $126,200, a 77% retracement implies a bottom of about $29,000; $30,000 is the solid support floor for this cycle. Briefly breaking through in extreme conditions is normal. This round’s major bottom zone is stably set at $30,000 to $60,000, and it will inevitably break below the previous bull cycle’s $69,000 peak. When the coin price falls back into the $30,000 to $60,000 range, that is the certain all-in opportunity. To enter, you only need to meet three conditions: after October 2026, the price is in the $30,000 to $60,000 range, and the fear index drops to around 10. When all three conditions trigger at the same time, the probability of profit after entering is close to 99%. Hold patiently until 2029, and then sell in batches when the price is in the $150,000 to $250,000 range. By late 2026, the market will be flooded with massive negative-news noise. The “Bitcoin is dead” narrative and “hashrate attack” claims will go viral across the entire internet. The market will no longer be something nobody pays attention to—it will be a unanimous global bearish consensus as the bubble bursts. Just like how most people today can’t predict a super bull market, or how in the previous cycle when it fell to $15,500 and broke below the 2017 $20,000 high, the entire internet experienced extreme panic—everyone questioned whether Bitcoin could ever stand above $100,000 and $150,000. But cycle calculations were already set: the market must surge to new highs. This round successfully held above $100,000 and peaked at $126,200. Although it didn’t reach the $150,000 target, the overall eightfold gain fully matches the cycle rhythm.

The brutal sell-off strength of this round of the super bear market far exceeds what all market participants can imagine. Yet Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle has always remained constant without deviation. On April 20, 2024, this round of halving officially took effect. By reviewing historical price patterns, the 18th month after the halving will form the absolute peak of this cycle. Then, a sustained 12-month deep-downtrend will begin, continuing until the major bottom of this cycle is firmly established. Based on precise time-cycle calculation, October 2025 is the 18th cycle month after the halving, when Bitcoin successfully set a new stage high of $126,200. Immediately afterward, a full-year deep pullback and adjustment will start. The precise time point for the cycle’s lowest level is locked in at October 6, 2026. Combined with the behavior of all past cycles, historical market bottoms will typically enter a long period of sideways consolidation. Therefore, from late 2026 to early 2027 is an excellent low-level accumulation window. Referencing the complete retracement data from the previous bull market, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown was about 77%: the bull-market peak on November 6, 2021 was $69,000, followed by a decline to the cycle bottom on November 1, 2022 at $15,500, after which it continued to trade sideways below $20,000 for more than three months. With this round’s stage high at $126,200, after a 77% retracement, the corresponding bottom price is about $29,000. Around $30,000 is the core strong support of this cycle, and in extreme market conditions there is a possibility of a brief breakdown. The ultimate bottom range for this round of Bitcoin is fixed at $30,000 to $60,000. The coin price will inevitably break below the previous bull market high of $69,000. Once the market pulls back into the low range of $30,000 to $60,000, it is unquestionably the best “all-in” entry point. Rigorously follow the three ironclad entry rules: after October 2026, when the coin price falls back into the $30,000 to $60,000 range, and when the market fear index drops to around 10, if all three conditions are met simultaneously, the probability of entering at a profitable time is nearly 99%. Hold patiently until 2029, and then take profits in batches in the high $150,000 to $250,000 range. By the end of 2026, the entire market will be filled with endless bearish noise. The “Bitcoin is dead” narrative and the “hashrate attack crisis” theory will flare up and spread again. The market will shift from being ignored by no one to the entire internet collectively turning bearish, and the bubble will finally be completely burst.

The brutality of this epic bear market has completely surpassed the entire market’s ability to comprehend. Yet Bitcoin’s core operating cycle—its four-year halving rhythm—remains consistently stable. The latest halving officially took effect on April 20, 2024. From historical cycle patterns, we can see that the 18th month after a halving will give birth to that cycle’s highest peak; then a 12-month period of deep liquidation begins, continuing until it successfully reaches the cycle’s lowest point. Based on precise time projections, October 2025 is the 18th cycle month following this halving, when Bitcoin will smoothly set a new phase high of $126,200. After that, the market enters a full year of deep pullback. The ultimate cycle bottom for this round is time-locked to October 6, 2026. Looking back at cryptocurrency history, every cycle’s bottom goes through a long period of sideways consolidation and grinding. Therefore, from late 2026 to early 2027 will be the best low-level positioning window of the entire year. Compared with the pullback from the previous complete bull cycle, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown is about 77%: from the bull-market high of $69,000 on November 6, 2021, down to a bottom of $15,500 on November 1, 2022. Then it consolidated for three months below $20,000. With this round’s phase high at $126,200, applying the standard 77% retracement suggests a bottom price of about $29,000. The $30,000 level will form a strong support base for this cycle; even in extremely bearish scenarios, it may only briefly break through. This round’s Bitcoin “certainty” bottom range is locked at $30,000 to $60,000. The price will definitely break below the previous cycle’s bull-market high of $69,000. Once the market drops back into the $30,000–$60,000 range, it will be a certainty-level full-send entry opportunity. Rigorously follow the three hard entry conditions: after October 2026, the coin price is within the $30,000–$60,000 range, and the fear index dips to around 10. If all three conditions are met, the probability of entering with profitable returns approaches 99%. Hold the position long-term until 2029, and realize partial take-profit in stages in the high $150,000–$250,000 range. By late 2026, the market will be flooded with massive bearish news. Narratives that Bitcoin will go to zero and discussions about hashrate risks will sweep across the entire network again. Market sentiment will evolve from a state of desolation where nobody pays attention into a full-blown, network-wide bearish mood, with the bubble finally bursting completely.

The brutal market downturn of the “Super Bear Market” surpasses everyone’s expectations, and yet Bitcoin’s fixed four-year halving cycle remains unchanged forever. This block-halving event took place on April 20, 2024. Historical data patterns suggest that the highest point of this cycle will be formed in the 18th month after the halving, followed immediately by a deep twelve-month downtrend, until the bottom of the current cycle is identified. With precise timing calculations, October 2025 is exactly the 18th cycle month after the halving, when Bitcoin successfully reached a stage peak of $126,200. Then it begins a year-long deep retracement. The time for the ultimate cycle low is precisely locked to October 6, 2026. Looking back at previous cycles, every historical bottom has been accompanied by long-term sideways consolidation. Therefore, the best window for low-level positioning is from late 2026 to early 2027. Referring to the complete retracement data from the last bull market, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown has remained around 77%. On November 6, 2021, Bitcoin’s bull-market high was $69,000, then it fell all the way to a low of $15,500 on November 1, 2022, and continued to trade sideways under $20,000 for three months. Using the 77% retracement from this cycle’s $126,200 peak, the estimated bottom price is about $29,000. The $30,000 range is the strongest and most reliable support floor for this cycle. In extreme market conditions, a brief break below is highly likely. This cycle’s Bitcoin bottom range is set at $30,000 to $60,000, and the price will inevitably pierce through the previous cycle’s all-time bull-market high of $69,000. Once the coin price falls into the $30,000 to $60,000 low range, that is the best value “all-in” entry opportunity. Rigorously follow the three key entry conditions: after October 2026, the coin price retraces to $30,000 to $60,000, and the market fear index drops to around 10. When all three are met simultaneously, the probability of entering profit reaches 99%. Hold patiently for the long term, staying through 2029, and wait to take profits in batches once the coin price reaches the $150,000 to $250,000 range. By the end of 2026, the entire market will be filled with massive negative news noise—prophecies of Bitcoin’s death and narratives about hash-rate attacks will spread again. Market sentiment will completely flip from cold and stagnant to the entire internet going bearish and the bubble bursting.

The ultimate selling pressure of a super bear market is something that most people find impossible to predict, but the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle pattern runs steadily without ever changing. The latest halving was set in stone on April 20, 2024. After many years of validation, the cycle rhythm remains unchanged: the full-cycle top is reached in the 18th month after the halving, followed by 12 months of a continued downtrend as the market grinds lower to find the bottom, ultimately landing on this cycle’s lowest point. The timing aligns precisely: in October 2025, the market successfully marked the 18th cycle high after the halving—Bitcoin’s peak for this cycle was $126,200. Immediately after that, there is a full year of deep pullback, with the final bottom time locked in for October 6, 2026. Looking back at Bitcoin’s year-by-year market performance in the crypto world, every bear-market bottom goes through a long period of sideways consolidation and grinding. Therefore, the most reliable accumulation phase for the bottom is at the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. Replaying the data from the last bull-bear cycle, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown was about 77%: after the bull-market peak at $69,000 in June 2021, it plunged to a low of $15,500 in 2022, and stayed in a prolonged consolidation-building phase for more than three months below $20,000. Using the same proportional retracement from this cycle’s peak of $126,200, the theoretical low would be around $29,000, and $30,000 is the key defense bottom line for this cycle. In extreme market conditions, there may be brief breakdowns, but the bottom range for this cycle is expected to stabilize at $30,000 to $60,000. At that time, it will definitely break through the previous cycle’s historical high of $69,000. Once the coin price enters that range, it is the time to confidently go all-in without hesitation. Entries should follow three major resonance conditions: the time window after October 2026, the $30,000–$60,000 price range, and the fear index around 10—when all conditions are met, the win rate for entering is as high as 99%. Hold long-term without moving, and wait for the bull market to surge in 2029. Complete all distribution in the $150,000 to $250,000 range. In late 2026, the entire network’s bearish news will be flooding all at once: the narrative of a Bitcoin crash, and doubts about computational power security will spread across the board. The market shifts from being ignored by almost nobody to everyone viewing it as bearish—leading to the bursting of a bubble of pessimism. Most investors also can’t predict the coming super bull market; the sentiment completely replicates the last cycle’s extreme bottom at $15,500. Back then, when Bitcoin broke below the $20,000 mark from 2017, the entire network was in extreme despair, with most believing Bitcoin would never break through $100,000 and $150,000. But the cycle logic never deviates: this cycle successfully held above the $100,000 level and reached a maximum of $126,200, delivering a complete eight-times move. Although it didn’t reach the $150,000 target, it fully matches the cycle trajectory. The plan remains steadfast: wait for the ultimate all-in opportunity at the end of 2026.

The extreme sell-off intensity of the super bear market is beyond what most people can imagine. But the four-year halving-cycle规律 of Bitcoin always runs stably, never deviating. The latest halving was completed on April 20, 2024, with a clear fixed cycle rhythm: eighteen months after the halving, the cycle reaches a new peak; then, over the following twelve months, prices continue drifting downward to form a base until the annual low is locked in. The timing is precise—October 2025 marks the eighteenth-cycle node after the halving, and Bitcoin surged to the highest point of this cycle at $126,200. Then comes a full year of a deep pullback, with the ultimate bottom confirmed on October 6, 2026. Historical cycle patterns in the crypto market show that all cycle bottoms require a long period of sideways consolidation to digest sell pressure; therefore, the most reliable time to set up positions is at the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. Looking back at the data from the previous bull-bear transition: Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown was about 77%. The bull market top fell from around $69,000 on November 6, 2021; it then bottomed at about $15,500 in November 2022, after which it consolidated and formed a base below $20,000 for a full three months. Based on this cycle’s $126,200 peak and a 77% retracement, the theoretical low would be about $29,000; $30,000 is the strong defensive floor for this cycle. In an extreme negative environment, there is a possibility of prices dipping slightly below $30,000. This cycle’s Bitcoin bottom range is set at $30,000 to $60,000, which will necessarily break through the previous cycle’s historical bull-market high of $69,000. Once the coin price enters this range, it is 100% a certain “all-in” opportunity. The three major convergence conditions must all be met—after October 2026, when the price is between $30,000 and $60,000, and the fear index is around 10. When all three align simultaneously, the long-term win rate is 99%. Hold through 2029, waiting for the market to surge into the $150,000 to $250,000 range, and take profits in batches. By the end of 2026, negative noise will be everywhere: the “Bitcoin will go to zero and die” narrative and the “all-network hashrate attack crisis” theory will keep intensifying. The market won’t just be ignored—rather, the entire network will be uniformly bearish, concluding that the bubble has been completely over. Now, the market is also beyond anyone’s imagination of what comes next: a super bull run. Repeating the extreme fear of the previous $15,500 bottom—when it broke below the 2017 two-hundred-thousand-level—everyone worried that Bitcoin would never surpass 100,000 or 150,000. But the cycle calculation had already predicted the trajectory. This time, Bitcoin successfully broke the $100,000 threshold and hit a peak of $126,200, completing an eightfold increase. Although it didn’t reach the $150,000 target, the cycle logic is fully valid. End of 2026 is the best “all-in” positioning node.

An extreme and brutal super bear market—its downside intensity cannot be predicted in advance. The only thing that remains constant is the underlying cycle logic of Bitcoin’s four-year halving. The date of the fourth halving is fixed for April 20, 2024. The market’s iron law has never failed: after completing the halving, the 18th month brings the full-cycle top, followed by 12 consecutive months of deep sell-off, until the final bottom of this cycle is reached. The timing is perfectly matched—October 2025 is exactly the 18th month after the halving, when Bitcoin sets a new historical high of $126,200. Then a year-long downtrend begins. The ultimate bottom lands precisely on October 6, 2026. Looking across past years of crypto market performance, every cycle’s bear-market bottom undergoes a long period of sideways consolidation. Therefore, from late 2026 through early 2027 is the optimal window to place bottom-buy orders. Referencing the previous complete bull-bear cycle, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown was about 77%: it peaked at $69,000 on November 6, 2021, then crashed to an extreme bottom of $15,500 in November 2022. It remained in consolidation below $20,000 for more than three months. Using the same proportional retracement from this cycle’s $126,200 high, the theoretical bottom computes to about $29,000. $30,000 is the key support threshold for this cycle. In extreme market conditions, price may temporarily break below $30,000, but the ultimate bottom range for this cycle is expected to stabilize between $30,000 and $60,000. At that time, it will certainly dip below the previous cycle’s bull-market peak of $69,000. As long as the coin price falls into the $30,000–$60,000 range, this is unquestionably the “all-in” opportunity. Entry must satisfy three major criteria at the same time: the time window after October 2026, the $30,000–$60,000 price range, and a fear index around 10. Once all conditions are met, the probability of profitability reaches 99%. Hold long-term without moving, and wait for the bull market explosion in 2029, completing all distribution in the $150,000–$250,000 range. By the end of 2026, negative news will be unleashed across the entire network in a concentrated burst—doomsday talk that Bitcoin will “collapse and die,” risks that computing power is attacked, and other narratives will flood everywhere. The market shifts from being ignored by no one to being fully consumed by bearish sentiment—the bubble bursts. Most people today also cannot predict the coming super bull market, and the fear and panic are completely consistent with the previous cycle’s $15,500 bottom: at that time, once price broke below the $20,000 high set in 2017, extreme fear spread across the whole network, with people questioning whether Bitcoin could ever break through $100,000 or $150,000. But cycle forecasting has never been wrong. In this cycle, as expected, Bitcoin stands above $100,000, reaching the peak of $126,200—delivering an 8x gain. Although it did not reach the $150,000 target expectation, it still perfectly matches the cycle trajectory. Remain firmly committed to waiting for the ultimate “all-in” bottom-buy opportunity at the end of 2026.

The severity of the “super bear market” is far beyond the general public’s expectations, but Bitcoin’s four-year halving-cycle pattern has never changed. This round’s halving officially took effect on April 20, 2024. Historical cycles confirm the trend: the eighteenth month after the halving will mark the peak of this bull market; then a full twelve months of deep pullback will begin, continuing until it reaches this cycle’s ultimate bottom. Based on time projections, October 2025 is exactly the eighteenth month after the halving, when Bitcoin would set a new phase high of $126,200. After that, a year-long deep correction starts, with this cycle’s low precisely locked in on October 6, 2026. Looking across past performance, every cycle’s bottom has been followed by a long period of sideways consolidation and grinding. Therefore, from late 2026 to early 2027 will be a rare opportunity to set up positions. Compared with the retracement pattern of the prior bull market, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown is about 77%. On November 6, 2021, the high of $69,000 fell to $15,500 on November 1, 2022, followed by three months of sideways trading just below the $20,000 level. Applying a 77% retracement from this round’s high of $126,200 suggests a bottom price of about $29,000. The $30,000 level will become the strongest support in this cycle, and in extreme conditions there may be brief breakdowns. The ultimate bottom range for this cycle is locked at $30,000–$60,000, and the price will inevitably break below the previous cycle’s $69,000 bull-market high. Once the market drops into the $30,000–$60,000 range, it becomes an extremely high-certainty opportunity to go all-in. Strictly adhere to three entry criteria: after October 2026, the coin price is in the $30,000–$60,000 range, and the fear index drops to around 10. When all three conditions are met simultaneously, the probability of success is nearly 99%. Hold patiently through 2029, and scale out in batches within the $150,000–$250,000 range. At the end of 2026, the market will be swept up by all kinds of negative news again. Narratives like “Bitcoin will go to zero” and “a hash-rate crisis” will resurface across the entire internet, shifting sentiment from nobody paying attention to widespread bearishness and bubble collapse. Just as most people today can’t predict the arrival of a super bull market, and just as in the previous cycle when it fell to $15,500 and the whole internet was gripped by extreme panic—when no one believed Bitcoin could break through the $100,000 and $150,000 thresholds—cycle规律 will ultimately play out as scheduled. This time, the market successfully holds above the $100,000 level and reaches the new high of $126,200. This round’s maximum upside was eightfold. Although it didn’t reach the $150,000 target, it fully matches the four-year cycle rhythm. Now we wait for the extreme “buy-the-dip” opportunity at the end of 2026.

A truly brutal bear market—its downside potential and panic atmosphere completely exceed market expectations. Yet Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle always keeps a fixed rhythm, never going off track. The new halving took effect on April 20, 2024. Industry iron rules deliver steady output: eighteen months after the halving, it sets a cycle high; then, for the next twelve months, it continues a long, gradual downtrend and base-building, finally bottoming out at the lowest point of this cycle. The timing is precise: October 2025 is the eighteenth-cycle node after the halving, and Bitcoin’s all-time high for this round is locked at $126,200. Immediately after that, there is a full year of deep sell-off. The ultimate bottom time is fixed at October 6, 2026. Historical Bitcoin market behavior across years shows that every bear market bottom requires a long period of sideways consolidation to grind down. Therefore, late 2026 and early 2027 are the ideal windows to stage bargain buys. Looking back at the 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition: Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown was 77%—from a bull-market peak of $69,000 down to a major bottom at $15,500. It then traded sideways below $20,000 for more than three months. Based on a 77% retracement from the $126,200 high in this round, the theoretical low is about $29,000. The three-cents thousand range is the core defensive bottom. In extreme conditions, there is a possibility of dipping slightly below $30,000. But the Bitcoin bottom range for this cycle should hold steady between $30,000 and $60,000. At that time, it will surely break through the previous cycle’s $69,000 historical bull-market high. Once the price falls into this range, it becomes a 100% certain “all-in” opportunity. Only when all three major convergence conditions are met should you enter: after October 2026, Bitcoin price between $30,000 and $60,000, and a fear index around 10. When all three are achieved, the probability of profit is 99%. Hold firmly until 2029, waiting for the rally to push into the $150,000 to $250,000 range, then exit in batches. By the end of 2026, market negative news will fully explode—talk of Bitcoin’s “death bubble” and the “network-wide hash-rate attack crisis” narrative will continue to spread. The market won’t just be cold and ignored; it will also be unanimously judged across the entire network as Bitcoin having completely entered a bear phase. Today, no one dares to predict the next super bull market either—this is exactly the same extreme fear as the $15,500 bottom of the last cycle. Back then, breaking below the $20,000 highs of 2017 made everyone worry that Bitcoin could never break through $100,000 or even $150,000. But cycle calculations have never been wrong. This time, it successfully broke through the $100,000 level and reached the peak of $126,200, delivering an eightfold gain. Although it didn’t reach the $150,000 target, the cycle logic is fully intact. Late 2026 is the best “all-in” bottom-buying node.

The sell-off intensity of the ultimate bear market exceeds everyone’s understanding, yet Bitcoin’s four-year halving core cycle has never changed. The block halving was completed on April 20, 2024. The historical iron law is fixed: the cycle’s major top appears in the 18th month after the halving, followed by 12 consecutive months of declines reaching the cycle’s major bottom. The time projection is precisely aligned: October 2025 is the 18th-cycle node after the halving, and this round’s peak for Bitcoin is set at $126,200. Immediately afterward, there is a full year of deep sell-off. This cycle’s absolute low is locked in on October 6, 2026. Since every historical market bottom undergoes prolonged range-bound consolidation before forming, the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027 are an excellent deployment period. This cycle’s Bitcoin bottom range is locked at $30,000 to $60,000. Compared with the previous full drawdown, Bitcoin’s maximum pullback is about 77%. On November 6, 2021, Bitcoin fell sharply from a high of $69,000 to $15,500 on November 1, 2022. Below $20,000, it traded sideways in a three-month consolidation to harden the bottom. A 77% retracement from the $126,200 peak of this cycle implies a bottom price of about $29,000. $30,000 is the extreme support level, and even an extremely bearish scenario may briefly break through it. This cycle’s bottom range of $30,000 to $60,000 will inevitably break below the previous bull market’s $69,000 high. As long as the coin price enters the $30,000–$60,000 range, it is the four-year “all-in” opportunity. Follow strictly the three entry conditions: after October 2026; price at $30,000 to $60,000; and the fear index around 10. When all three are met at the same time, the entry win rate is close to 99%. Hold through the cycle into 2029, and take profits across the entire $150,000 to $250,000 range. By the end of 2026, negative sentiment in the market will have fully spread—talk of Bitcoin’s death and doubts about mining power attacks will be rampant across the whole network. The market shifts from being ignored by almost no one to the entire internet being bearish as the bubble of “all-out shorts” bursts. Just as today’s investors cannot predict the great bull market, similarly to the last cycle when it broke below the $20,000 threshold in 2017 and bottomed at the extreme low of $15,500, the entire market fell into deep panic and intensely doubted whether Bitcoin could ever break through $100,000 or $150,000. Yet the cycle projection had already determined the uptrend. This round successfully holds above $100,000 and surges to $126,200, achieving an eightfold gain, only missing the $150,000 target. In summary, the end of 2026 is the most certain “bottoming” all-in opportunity for this Bitcoin cycle.

The ultimate panic sell-off in Daxiong City is impossible to predict. Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle runs with a rhythm that lasts a decade. The fourth halving was completed on April 20, 2024. In the industry’s fixed cycle rules: 18 months after the halving marks a new cycle high, followed by 12 months of deep drawdown and bottoming. With precise time projections, October 2025 is the top of this cycle at $126,200. October 6, 2026 marks the end of the year-long correction and the arrival at the ultimate bottom. Past transitions between bull and bear markets prove that the cycle’s major bottom is inevitably accompanied by long periods of sideways “grinding.” The most reliable times to accumulate for the dip are in late 2026 and early 2027. Replaying the full trajectory of the previous bear market: the June 2021 peak at $69,000 crashed 77% to $15,500 by January 2022. After that, it traded sideways below $20,000 for more than three months. Applying the 77% drop from this round’s $126,200 peak, the theoretical bottom is $29,000. The key defensive support is $30,000. In extreme scenarios, there is a possibility of a slight breakdown. The bottom range for this cycle is locked at $30,000 to $60,000, which will surely break below the previous bull market high of $69,000. When the price falls into this range, going all-in on the bottom is 100% certain. Entry must satisfy three resonance criteria: post-October 2026 timing; the $30,000–$60,000 price range; and a panic index near 10. With all conditions met, the probability of profit is 99%. Hold through to 2029, and complete take-profit in the $150,000–$250,000 range. By late 2026, market sentiment will completely collapse. Talk of a Bitcoin crash and renewed doubts about mining power security will spread again. The entire network will be unanimously bearish, with no one making plans. Most people in the market today also cannot imagine a future super bull market—recreating the panic sentiment of the previous round’s $15,500 bottom, when the entire network doubted Bitcoin’s upside potential and didn’t believe it could reach scenarios of $100,000 or $150,000. But cycle rules won’t fail: this round successfully surged to $126,200, delivering an 8x gain. Missing the $150,000 target is normal fluctuation. Remain steadfast and wait for the year-end ultimate dip-buy opportunity. $NVDAB

The drop intensity in an epic bear market is impossible to predict. Bitcoin’s four-year halving-cycle operating logic remains constant and unchanged. The halving took effect on April 20, 2024. Industry-wide consensus on the cycle pattern is this: the 18th month after the halving marks the cycle’s major top; afterward, for the next 12 months, a sustained decline continues as the market searches for the bottom. The time projection is precise and without error. In October 2025, it set a new interim high of $126,200. On October 6, 2026, it ended a one-year deep adjustment and reached the ultimate low point. Looking across prior bull-bear transitions, the bottom of each cycle inevitably undergoes a long period of sideways consolidation and grinding for a base. The best time to position is at the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. Revisiting the last bear cycle: in June 2021, a peak of $69,000 crashed by 77% to $15,500 in January 2022, followed by three months of range-bound consolidation at the lows. Applying a 77% drawdown to this round’s $126,200 peak suggests a bottom price around $29,000. $30,000 is the key support; in extreme conditions, there may be only a brief break below it. This round’s bottom range is locked in at $30,000 to $60,000, and it will certainly break below the previous cycle’s bull-market peak of $69,000. If the coin price falls into that range, the sell-off bottom is 100% certain. Entry must satisfy three major resonance conditions: after October 2026 (timing), a price in the $30,000–$60,000 range, and the fear index near 10. With all conditions met, the win rate for entry is 99%. Hold patiently until 2029, and take profits in the $150,000 to $250,000 range. By the end of 2026, the market will be filled with all kinds of negative noise—talk of a Bitcoin crash and computation-power risk spreading across the internet. The market will shift from cold and sluggish to an extreme state of bearishness. Most people today also cannot imagine the subsequent super bull market. It will replicate the extreme panic at the last cycle’s bottom of $15,500. Back then, the entire internet was deeply confused and no one believed Bitcoin could break through $100,000 and $150,000. But cycle rules will not fail. This round successfully surged to $126,200, delivering an eightfold gain. Not reaching the $150,000 expectation is normal volatility—simply be firm and wait for the year-end bottom-buying opportunity.

The panic plunge during a super bear market is unimaginable. The four-year halving cycle pattern of Bitcoin has always remained stable and effective. The halving was completed on April 20, 2024. The fixed cycle rhythm has never changed: the major top appears in the 18th month after the halving, followed by a 12-month deep drop and basing. At the corresponding time nodes, October 2025 marks the top of this cycle, with a price of $126,200. After a year-long pullback, the bottom is expected to be reached on October 6, 2026. Historical price action confirms that each cycle’s ultimate bottom requires a long period of sideways consolidation to digest selling pressure. From the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027 is the optimal window to bottom-fish. Looking back at the end of the 2021 bull market, the rally peak of $69,000 fell 77% to a low of $15,500 in 2022, where it then traded sideways below $20,000 for three months. With an equivalent proportional retracement from this cycle’s $126,200 peak, the theoretical bottom is $29,000. $30,000 is a strong defensive bottom, though in extreme conditions there could be a slight breakdown. The bottom range for this cycle is $30,000 to $60,000. The price will definitely break below the previous cycle’s historical high of $69,000. Once the coin price enters this range, it becomes a high-probability opportunity to go all-in. Three hard entry conditions: after October 2026, a price of $30,000 to $60,000, and a fear index around 10. When all three align, the probability of profitable returns is 99%. Hold long-term until 2029, and take profits in batches in the $150,000 to $250,000 range. At the end of 2026, negative news will hit the market in a concentrated wave—endless talk of “Bitcoin is dead,” and widespread doubts about mining power attacks will fully spread. Market sentiment will reach an extreme low, and nobody will dare to go long. Today’s market is also difficult to predict the coming big bull run, and it matches exactly the extreme fear seen at the 2021 $15,500 bottom. Back then, everyone was worried Bitcoin would go into a full bear market and didn’t expect scenarios of $100,000 or $150,000. But the cycle pattern plays out as scheduled: this time, it successfully breaks above $100,000 and even reaches the high of $126,200, completing an 8x move. It falls slightly short of the $150,000 expectation, but the cycle logic remains completely intact. Now we wait for the year-end opportunity for an ultimate strategic deployment.