蜡币小鑫

The most delicate aspect of US employment has arrived: companies don’t lay people off, but they’re also not in a hurry to hire.

In the short term, there’s no support for the Fed quickly turning dovish—the Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow night will be the real pricing point for US Treasuries, tech stocks, and BTC

Mainland China stock IPOs in Hong Kong also aren’t that hot anymore—it’s not as appealing as before.

At the height of the first half of the year, investors could easily make tens of thousands in profit with just one board lot.

In July, there were basically no new issues to bid on. By August, we finally waited for one, but with only about 600 yuan profit for one board lot.

With no action in the crypto market and no momentum in stocks either, Hong Kong IPO bidding has also entered a quiet period.

After the “making money” effect cools down, you realize the hardest part in the market isn’t losing money—it’s having no opportunities.

Sigh… it’s tough. Bring back some market action, please!

The market is putting real money behind the hope that the U.S. and Iran can reach an agreement, but I’m watching just one metric: whether oil tankers truly resume normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Statements can shift sentiment, but actual shipping traffic is what can change supply.

If an agreement is finalized, oil prices, inflation, and U.S. Treasury yields could all fall at the same time—creating a tailwind for tech stocks and BTC. If talks break down, the recent gains in risk assets may also quickly unwind.

Do you think this is a real turning point, or yet another “pump it first, then crash”?.

Yushu Technology’s IPO is entering the countdown.

The issuance schedule currently disclosed is: price inquiry on August 5 and online subscription on August 10; the official listing date has not been announced yet. The final issue price has also not been determined. The figure of about RMB 104 circulating in the market is a theoretical value derived by dividing the proposed fundraising amount of RMB 4.202 billion by the minimum number of shares to be issued (40.4464 million shares). This corresponds to an estimated valuation of about RMB 420 billion, and it is not an official pricing.

Based on a valuation of RMB 420 billion:
For 2025, revenue is about RMB 1.7 billion, corresponding to ~25x PS;
Parent-attributable net profit is RMB 278 million, corresponding to ~151x PE;
Net profit after deducting non-recurring items is RMB 591 million, corresponding to ~71x PE.

The valuation is not low, but Yushu is not relying on hype alone: In 2025, sales of humanoid robots were 5,215 units, generating revenue of RMB 868 million, with gross margin from main business reaching 60.13%. The real risk is that in Q1 2026, revenue growth of 68% is expected, while profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to fall by more than 52%. R&D and marketing investments are visibly eroding near-term profits.

A few days ago it was still “the stock must fall no matter whether the earnings are good or bad.” Now, the market suddenly starts rewarding good performance again.

Last night on Wall Street:
🔥 S&P 500 rose 1.8%, hitting a new all-time high
🔥 Nasdaq gained 2.6%
🔥 Dow surged by 907 points
🔥 Palantir jumped 29.5%
🔥 Micron rose 7.6%, and Broadcom climbed 6.6%

Why did good earnings surge this time?

Because the companies’ fundamentals were solid. At the same time, the oil price dropped 5.3% and U.S. Treasury yields fell back—two heavy stones weighing on tech stocks finally loosened.

The market isn’t blindly buying AI again; it’s selecting the companies that can truly turn AI into revenue, profits, and orders.

Next, the most important thing isn’t who shouts the loudest, but who can continue to raise guidance. Who do you think will be the next AI company to be repriced by funds?

#纳指 #AI股票 #美股

Elon Musk’s net worth shrank by $36.3 billion in July.

What does that mean?

The wealth he lost in a single month is more than the entire net worth of any one person among ranks 2 through 10 on the global rich list.

But the most painful part isn’t that he lost so much—it’s that after losing it all, he will most likely still be the world’s richest person.

Ordinary people: This month their account is down 10% and they can’t sleep.

Musk: Lost a world-class billionaire in one month and keeps going to work.

This is the “drawdown” of a top billionaire. 😂

The market was terrified to death yesterday, and today it’s back to accumulating positions. Why?

It’s not because the economy suddenly got better—it’s because oil prices fell.

Brent crude dropped 4.7% in a single day, and US stocks immediately surged:

🔥 Nasdaq up 2.1%
🔥 S&P 500 up 1.5%, just about 0.1% away from its all-time high
🔥 Dow up nearly 700 points, setting a record close

Now the market switch is very clear:
Oil prices rise = worries about inflation, worries about rate hikes, tech stocks get punished;
Oil prices fall = easing inflation pressure, and capital comes back to buy growth stocks.

So don’t just focus on tech stocks. Going forward, you should pay more attention to crude oil and US Treasury yields. They’re the real remote controls for global risk assets right now.
#美股 #原油 #科技股

The financial market is, in essence, a way to monetize cognition.

If you believe you have insights, come to the market and cash them in.

If you think you don't, you can also come in to test it.

The market will only tell you the answer through profit and loss. Welcome to the world of challengers!

In this market, the truly formidable are never the “stock gods” who make a fortune in a single round. It’s those who, after surviving bull and bear cycles, can still keep the profits in their hands.

I’ve seen far too many people make big money, yet very few can hold on to the results. Even fewer can control drawdowns and keep wealth growing long-term and steadily.

Conquering the realm is hard; holding the realm is even harder.

The financial market is the same: making money may depend on the trend, courage, or even luck. But keeping money is about cognition, discipline, and a deep respect for risk.

Stay humble in good times and steady in bad times; stay clear-headed when earning and hold your line when losing.

Never let a single heavily concentrated position or a moment of impulsiveness strip you of the right to keep participating.

As long as you’re still at the table, opportunities always exist. Once your principal is depleted, even the biggest market moves have nothing to do with you.

In the world of trading, legends of short-term overnight wealth are never in short supply. What’s truly scarce is the ability to remain stable and reach the finish after countless cycles.

What is truly admirable about Buffett is not just how much he earned, but the fact that he spent his lifetime proving this: investing isn’t about who can run the fastest for a moment—it’s about who can control risk, compound steadily, and go far enough.

In the end, the market often rewards not the smartest or most aggressive people, but those who always maintain a sense of reverence, know how to go on the offensive, and know how to survive.

A few days ago everyone was scrambling to escape; today they’re scrambling to buy again.

South Korean stocks surged 17.9% in a single day: Samsung rose 28%, and SK hynix rose 30%.

The market suddenly figured out one thing: if the money spent on AI can be turned into profits, then it isn’t a bubble.

But a one-day rally doesn’t mean the risks are gone. A real bull market depends on orders, earnings, and a continuous inflow of capital—not just a one-day turnaround in sentiment.

Lost 50,000 yesterday, earned 170,000 today

Yesterday was hell, overnight it turned into heaven—the stock market is more exciting than the damn crypto circle

Bought double and went long on Hynix—now it feels really good.

This powerful rebound is quite intense. Waiting for the Hong Kong stock market to open......

US stocks rebound collectively tonight, and the storage crowd finally gets back on track!

$MU Micron, $SNDK SanDisk, $SKHY SK Hynix, $WDC Western Digital, $STX Seagate all surge together, and the semiconductor space—$NVDA and $AMD as well—starts to warm up.

This round of storage stocks saw a consecutive selloff from the highs, and many names have pulled back 30%—50%. Leveraged products even buried a bunch of people outright. After falling this much and killing so many, shouldn’t it rebound in a decent way at least once?

But pay attention: for now, let’s define it as an oversold rebound—we can’t confirm a reversal yet. Next, the key is whether it can continuously see increased volume and hold key levels.

#美股 #存储芯片 #半导体

South Korean stocks saw another round of selloff for the third straight day. The KOSPI index fell 1.2% today to 5,593.56 points. After a plunge of 10.8% over the prior two days and nearly 6% the day before that, the cumulative decline over three days is already close to 18%.

Most ironic of all, today two chip giants just released financial results that were nearly “off-the-charts”:
Samsung Electronics reported second-quarter operating profit of about 89.5 trillion won, up more than 19-fold year over year. The stock rose as much as 2.4% in early trading, but ultimately fell 0.7%.

SK hynix’s quarterly operating profit grew nearly 6 times. After yesterday’s drop of more than 9%, the stock fell another 5.6% today.

This suggests that what the market is trading right now is no longer simply whether performance is “good” or not, but rather:
How long can the high-demand cycle for AI and memory chips last; whether massive capacity expansions will trigger the next round of oversupply; whether the rise of Chinese manufacturers will drive down memory prices and profit margins; and when overvalued, high-leverage trades will finally be unwound.

A few months ago, results that beat expectations meant funds rushed in to buy. Now, even with profits hitting records, the stock may still surge briefly and then pull back.

I made 20,000 yesterday, but lost 50,000 today. Did I buy counterfeit goods? How am I losing money faster than a cheap scammer?

How outrageous is this Samsung earnings report?
In Q2, operating profit was about 89.5 trillion KRW—up more than 19x year-on-year—basically making money off AI, HBM, and storage price hikes.
So what happens next?
The stock price should drop… but will it?
The old market was:
Earnings beat expectations → funds immediately pile in.
Now the market is:
Earnings beat expectations → first, see if it can get even better;
Growth not fast enough → drop;
Capital expenditures too high → drop;
Slightly conservative guidance for the future → still drop.
What investors worry about isn’t that Samsung can’t make money today, but rather how long storage price hikes can last, whether the frenzied capacity expansion could lead to oversupply, and whether Chinese manufacturers will start fighting for profits.
The market no longer buys “good earnings”—it’s voting on whether things can stay good in the future.
This may be the most dangerous change in global tech stocks right now.

Enough already—making money, then it dropped so much. It’s time for a decent rebound, isn’t it?