博弈先生

Contract and Human Nature:
A Moral Test in Interests

There is a funny and sad phenomenon in the world: those who have been helped and gained benefits, but at the cost of breaking the contract, they show their "cleverness".
Their behavior is like a cheetah burying its prey after hunting, but forgetting that it is burying future food. The contract is a bridge of trust between people and the intersection of morality and civilization, but these people, guided by short-sightedness and greed, trampled on their promises and threw their sincerity into the dust.
They may think they have won something, but they don't know that they have lost more than they have gained.
From ancient times to the present, the spirit of contract has always been an important cornerstone of human social progress. Whether it is mutual trust in business or tacit understanding in cooperation, the contract is a touchstone to measure whether a person is worthy of trust.
Those who abide by the contract not only win wealth, but also respect; while those who break the contract become prisoners of greed. They gain short-term benefits by stealing the goodwill of others, but forget that once the credit is lost, it will be difficult to continue.
These perfidious people think that their behavior is smart, but it is better to say that they are using naive calculations to calculate a deal that is doomed to fail. Benefits are the fruit of a contract, but they can also be the poison of destruction.
A person without credit is like walking in a desert. No matter how hard he tries, he will eventually find it difficult to walk out of this moral sand. The greatest stupidity in human nature is this: while gaining temporary benefits, he sacrifices the possibility of long-term development.
Maybe they can cheat for a while, but they can't cheat everyone; maybe they can take shortcuts in a certain cooperation, but in the longer journey, they are doomed to be isolated and helpless. Because the shadow of breaking trust will attach to them like an evil spirit, so that they will encounter indifference every time they try to cooperate again.
Those who can stick to the spirit of the contract are the real winners in this world, because they not only win the present, but also win the future. And those who violate the contract, they only get short-term benefits, but lose the most precious things of human nature: trust and respect.

I previously posted that FIL would rise significantly recently, and many people criticized me and questioned me. Anyway, those who believed me have made profits by now.

As long as Bitcoin doesn't drop significantly and continues to move sideways or rise, it shouldn't be a problem for FIL to break the price of 10 this month. By early next year, it should reach 20, and after hitting 20, I will reduce my holdings by half and continue to hold.

FIL will definitely break 100 in the future, but this wave of the bull market might not achieve that because if FIL's price really reaches 100, its market value would certainly be in the top ten, which requires a lot of capital to push up. I think the peak price for FIL in this bull market should be in the range of 40-80.

The 99% drop in FIL before was mainly because 75% of its mining machines were in China. When the Chinese government cracked down on mining machines, FIL was hit the hardest, which is why the price plummeted. Although the selling model of FIL mining machines is somewhat similar to a pyramid scheme, it is not a pyramid scheme, nor is it a scheme for Chinese people.

Heavy selling pressure and many people trapped are not absolutely related to whether the market rises significantly. This is not a core factor. As long as the favorable conditions are sufficient and the capital inflow is high, the market can rise significantly.

Veteran investors tend to sell when the price rises slightly, but after a real surge, they tend not to sell and may even increase their positions. This is human nature. Therefore, if FIL can continuously break through the selling pressure zone, the later it gets, the less resistance there will be, so there should still be quite a bit of room above.

Bitcoin is currently controlled by Wall Street, and the landscape of Wall Street will not be this small. Wall Street has always focused on long-term returns and will not just harvest a wave and run. Only a sustained bull market can attract whales to keep increasing their positions, and it can also attract newcomers from outside the circle.

As long as the bull market can continue, the number of people in the cryptocurrency circle next year could reach 1 billion. Currently, there are 560 million people trading cryptocurrencies, and the number of traders will double, while the amount of funds will definitely not just double.

The goal of Wall Street is to expand the blockchain market and then harvest profits from around the world like the US dollar, with a cyclical harvest of large profits every four years. It is definitely not just about looking at the current small profits and withdrawing. Moreover, Trump's new policies have not yet arrived, and we have entered a rate-cutting cycle, which are all positive news. Therefore, the bull market will definitely continue.

This bull market is the largest in the next twenty years, and there will not be another bull market of this scale. Missing this opportunity is not just as simple as waiting another four years.

Bitcoin will not have a significant correction, expecting a pullback of 10-20%, and it is certain to reach above 150,000 next year. So everyone doesn’t need to worry about altcoins falling sharply.

The space for altcoins to drop is not large anymore, after all, the price of altcoins corresponds to Bitcoin's price of 40,000. This means that before the altcoins catch up, they will not drop significantly as before, this is the bottom. Moreover, Bitcoin's pullback is a good thing; Bitcoin's pullback will allow large funds to exit, flowing into altcoins to push them up. Funds and sectors are cyclical, and the altcoin season will inevitably come.

Altcoins first drop with Bitcoin, when Bitcoin stabilizes and then rises slowly, it is the time for the altcoin season to explode. At this time, funds will start to rotate, and many new funds will come in. Therefore, this time Bitcoin's pullback and the simultaneous drop in altcoins is actually a good opportunity for everyone to build positions in altcoins.

Ethereum is very likely to reach 10,000 next year. SOL cannot be compared to Ethereum. Vitalik's technical team is currently the best in the cryptocurrency circle, which is undoubtedly true. Moreover, the Ethereum ETF fund is definitely not just a formality; institutional funds will come in later. Ethereum has not yet caught up simply because the timing has not arrived, and the funds have not yet rotated to Ethereum. Ethereum is the barometer for altcoins, and when Ethereum starts to rise, the altcoin season will come.

FIL should rise in the next few months. There is no problem in breaking through 20U. It is likely to reach 50U next year. As for those who can only get back their investment at 200U, don't think about it. It will not be reached in the next few years. For those who have high costs, it is best to build a position now to lower the average price, and then stop when the price rises. I plan to sell half of my position at 20U, and see if I can get 50U for the remaining half.

The technical side is perfect, a very standard bottoming pattern, and then break through the wedge space to rise. This pattern has an 80% chance of continuing to rise.

The fundamentals are also good. Institutions have been active recently and are constantly adding FIL positions. The acceleration of the main network update and the issuance of stablecoins are also very good news. In addition, the previous three major washes have cleared most of the undetermined retail investors. This time the selling pressure is much lighter, at least there will not be too heavy selling pressure before 20U. In addition, I recently learned that domestic FIL miners are also hoarding coins, saying that they will not sell them until at least 20U, which is also good news.

Bitcoin will not have a big correction, and it will definitely reach more than 150,000 next year, so there is no need to worry about the altcoin falling in half. The altcoin has little room to fall. After all, the price of the altcoin corresponds to the price of Bitcoin at 40,000, which means that before the altcoin makes up for the rise, it will not fall as much as before. This is the bottom space. In addition, Bitcoin's correction is a good thing. Only when Bitcoin pulls back will large funds exit and flow into the altcoin to pull up the market. Funds and sectors are rotating, and the altcoin season is bound to come.

The altcoin first follows the decline of Bitcoin. When Bitcoin stabilizes and then rises slowly, it is the time for the altcoin season to break out. At this time, funds begin to rotate, and there are many new funds coming in. Therefore, this time when Bitcoin pulls back and the altcoin follows the decline, it is actually a good time for everyone to build a position in the altcoin.

There is a high probability that Ethereum will reach more than 10,000 next year. SOL cannot be compared with Ethereum. Vitalik Buterin's technical team is currently the number one in the currency circle, and this position cannot be shaken. What's more, the Ethereum ETF fund is by no means just a decoration. Institutional funds will enter the market later. The reason why Ethereum has not made up for the rise is that the time has not come yet, and the funds have not yet been rotated to Ethereum. Ethereum is the weather vane of the copycat. When Ethereum starts to rise, the copycat season is here.

The most fundamental difference between civilization and barbarism is:
Civilization is the people constantly taming the rulers, barbarism is the rulers constantly taming the people;
Civilization is the people setting rules for the rulers, barbarism is the rulers constantly setting rules for the people;
Civilization is the people putting power in a cage, barbarism is power putting people in a cage~

Because the people have money but they don’t spend it, the domestic economy is so depressed. The country wants to transfer the people’s money to state-owned enterprises through this artificial water buffalo. State-owned enterprises are the dealers this time. They began to harvest leeks vigorously at the peak of the bull market. After the state-owned enterprises took the people’s money, they made large investments and paid salaries to civil servants to revitalize the economy. This time, the people are the biggest receivers. #大A

To those who are waiting for the bull market:

Everyone thinks that suffering is physical suffering, but the real suffering is to focus on a career for a long time, endure the disregard and doubt of others, and endure a long-term unrewarded effort.
When you are in the most painful time, no one around you understands you, your parents blame you, your girlfriend leaves you, and your good brother turns against you for a little money.
Your employees steal your materials, your suppliers don’t pay you, and you cry alone in the heavy rain. No one can help you. You can endure these hardships and survive them. Only then will you have the opportunity to become a superior person.
The first people who can’t stand it in a bear market are the relatives around you.
The most difficult thing in a bear market is often not the falling market, but the hopelessness of your wife and children, the accusations of your parents, the alternative in the eyes of your friends, and the contempt of the whole environment.
They will think that you are a person who is not doing his job and a brainwashed person.
At this time, you are very sure that the bull market is getting closer and closer, and as long as you can survive, you will get both the principal and the profit.
But your family doesn't believe you. In their eyes, you are a bottomless pit that only loses money. All the investment in you is wasted. They have helped you so much, but you can't give any feedback.
Are you really wrong?
In fact, you are not wrong. The future will be crazier than you think. The reason why everyone doesn't trust you is that they are all ordinary people and there is no possibility of turning cocoons into butterflies.
But you are different. You still have a glimmer of hope. If you give up, you will really lose.
What I want to say to you is that you have to do everything you can to hold on. Only by holding on to the end can you win the biggest fruit. If you can't hold on and give up, you will never be able to turn over.
In fact, this world is not so hopeless. Looking back many years later, it is just a drop in the ocean now.
Try to live longer and hold on to the end, so that your previous life will not be in vain.

Secondary market investment mentality management

In the secondary market, stock price fluctuations are like rivers, lakes and seas, sometimes calm as a mirror, sometimes turbulent. As Buffett said: "When others are greedy, I am afraid, and when others are afraid, I am greedy." This is a wise motto and the art of mentality.

In this market full of variables, investors often fall into the quagmire of emotions. They are like Ah Q in Lu Xun's works, sometimes shouting "We want to turn over", and sometimes falling into the lament that "the revolution has not yet succeeded." However, it is this emotional ups and downs that makes the market a psychological game.

When the market is prosperous and stock prices are rising, greed spreads like a plague. Investors scrambled for fear of missing this opportunity to get rich. At this time, as Lu Xun described: "People are like chicken blood, rosy, full of joy, thinking that they have picked up all the bargains in the world." But little do they know that this is a dangerous signal. Excessive greed will blind reason, lead to blind pursuit of high prices, and eventually fall into the abyss of bubble bursting.

On the contrary, when the market is bleak, stock prices are falling like autumn leaves, and fear is shrouded like haze. Investors are selling and fleeing this seemingly desperate land. At this time, the "spectator mentality" described by Lu Xun is revealed: "Everyone is watching, waiting, waiting for others to move first." But as Buffett said, this is the arrival of opportunity. Rational investors will remain calm in fear, go against the trend, and wait for spring to come.

Mentality management is particularly important in the secondary market. Lu Xun once said: "The infinite distance, countless people, are all related to me." This sentence also applies to investment. Every change in the mentality of an investor will have an impact on the market. Therefore, investors should always stay sober and not be swayed by emotions.

Investment is like a long journey, which requires wisdom and patience. Greed and fear are both scenery on the journey, and the real winners are often those who can move forward firmly in the wind and rain. As Lu Xun wrote: "Beasts will always come out, but the stars in the night sky will always be there."

In this game of mentality, I hope you and I can keep a normal mind, not follow the crowd, and wait for the flowers to bloom.

The global severe moment has come, and the global economy is undergoing a huge change.

The economy will not usher in a V-shaped reversal in the short term, and will operate at the bottom for a long time, because the monetary and fiscal tools that promote economic recovery have been exhausted.

This wave of "spending money" by the United States has forced the economy to "reverse" recovery, causing a lot of problems for the world. Except for the United States, countries around the world have suffered from everything from shop closures and corporate layoffs to energy crises and century inflation. The United States has brought the world economy into a quagmire.

At the same time, in order to cope with unprecedented inflation, the Federal Reserve's biggest goal now is to control inflation and shrink liquidity, which has caused capital to become expensive from free, and global assets are being revalued.

We must bear the consequences of capital becoming expensive, that is, cheap capital will no longer come to rescue the market, because they are also facing losses. Traditional business and securities industry have entered the Ice Age.

At present, the important thing is that we must survive in the market. So how can we survive in this situation?

The answer is survival of the fittest. To flexibly deal with the current changes, we must be prepared for both situations. The first is to cut unnecessary expenses. The era of lavish spending and land grabbing is over. Keeping sufficient cash means living longer.

The second is not to waste any crisis. The next period of time is a good time to invest in yourself to overtake others. Crisis is usually a turning point.

Blockchain is in a good time to overtake others in the crisis. At present, spot trading can make you turn over. It is not a problem for altcoins to double their current prices. If you insist on doing contracts now, you will miss the only chance to turn yourself over.

In short, pessimists are right and optimists are successful. Come on, everyone.

If you don't accompany me when the sun sets, who are you to make a comeback?

Strong thinking: probability power

In our lives, we face all kinds of choices at all times. Behind every choice, there is a probability of success or failure.
Weak thinking tends to get certain things, and he does not want probability power. The strong thinking is just the opposite. Every time he chooses, he is willing to bet according to the probability of success. Regardless of success or failure, win or lose, he always insists on betting like this.
Please note that cherishing probability power does not mean that you should gamble, but that you should jump out of your intuition and instinct and think about every choice you make with probability thinking.

The weak do not cherish probability power, not that they do not gamble, but they are more likely to gamble on things with extremely small probabilities. For example, spending money to buy lottery tickets, two dollars at a time, wanting to have a dream of getting rich. And the leeks always want to buy 100 times the currency, which is the same way of thinking.

For example, let's see how the rich think. Zuckerberg, the boss of Facebook, just founded Facebook for 4 months when someone offered $10 million to acquire his company. Two years later, Yahoo offered $1 billion to acquire it. Of course, there were many opportunities in the meantime. Google, News Corporation, etc. had the intention to acquire the company. Each bid was a chance for Zuckerberg to make a fortune and live a life of luxury, but Zuckerberg refused every time. Do you want to get 1 billion right away, or get 100 billion in a few years with a probability of a few percent? This is a choice.

A startup may not be profitable at the beginning, but investors have calculated the future of the industry, the quality of the entrepreneur and the entrepreneurial team, and the future market risks with probabilistic thinking, and gave a valuation. Although this valuation is paper wealth, it contains a series of probabilistic calculations, and it is the real market pricing. Venture capitalists just keep betting, keep betting, and after many times, as long as there is a big profit, all the money will come back.
Therefore, venture capital is not what it looks like from the outside, gambling, guessing steel coins, it is a wealth game with a precise algorithm, and institutional investment always looks at probability!

Three situations of investment:
1. When you are overconfident in the investment market, you are about to perish. Unfortunately, the overconfidence is mostly detected after the fact.
2. The settings that you think are rational and safe enough will also break the original rules because of greed. Either continue to be rational and avoid excessive greed, or set a stop loss.
3. When you can't bear the loss, you may have to bear a bigger loss. When you find that you can bear the previous loss, it is mostly because the subsequent status quo makes you even more unacceptable. #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETH（以太坊）

What is the most important thing for investors?

For investors, even speculators, the multiple is not the most important. What is important? The ability to repeat.
It is meaningless to make a hundred times in one go and lose it again the next time.

If you have the ability to make 10 times in a certain period of time. You only need to repeat it 3 times, and it will be a thousand times.

So, in the final analysis, chasing hot spots is beyond the reach of ordinary people. Improving investment ability and pursuing repeatability are skills that everyone can acquire with careful practice. #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Why are so many people in the square predicting the market? If you really understand the technology and are a senior trader, you should know that strict execution according to your own trading system is the kingly way, rather than predicting the market.

Predicting the market is a subjective judgment, which does not conform to the probability model. It is no different from taking chances and cannot last long. For retail investors, trading by predicting the market is a suicidal behavior.

According to the trading system, objective and rational operations conform to the probability model and can achieve long-term stable profits. The core condition for stable profits is to build your own technical model and strictly implement it.

And you should not predict the market. Predicting the market will affect your mentality, affect your execution, and disrupt the layout of your trading system. As long as you predict the market, you will have subjective feelings, you will no longer be objective and rational, and you will not strictly implement your trading strategy.

If retail investors want to make stable profits, they must build a logical closed-loop trading system. They must have a basis for placing orders and closing positions, and cannot rely on feelings. Moreover, they must leave a way out for themselves, and must not fool around! Don't be impulsive and don't gamble! Reason is the basic skill to make money. #BTC #ETH（二饼） #filcoin