$BTC 2.5 hours: global market volatility wiped out nearly $2 trillion!
The moment Warsh speaks, risk assets plunge across the board.
Rate hike odds for September jump to 61.7%!
U.S. 2-year yields hit a one-month high.
Wall Street’s repricing this round came far too fast!
After Warsh reinforced inflation concerns at Jackson Hole, the market quickly lifted the September rate-hike odds from around 34% to 61.7%. Short-end U.S. Treasury yields immediately surged; stocks, gold, and Crypto all came under pressure. In just 2.5 hours, market estimates put the losses at nearly $2 trillion.
Now, the trading focus has fully switched back to “higher rates for longer.” As long as the 2-year yield keeps pushing higher, high-beta assets are likely to keep being de-leveraged. But these macro-driven sharp selloffs are also exactly when a fierce rebound is most likely after leverage has been fully flushed out.
The hawkish expectations have already driven this knife deep into the price.
Going forward, if yields pivot down even slightly, the rebound potential of heavily hit assets like BTC could be the fiercest!
$BTC ETF This week they keep buying aggressively again, into 1.14 billion USD!
In just 9 days, the cumulative amount has already exceeded 3 billion USD.
Spot funds are still being poured in continuously!
This round of institutional buying pressure clearly hasn’t cooled off.
At high levels, BTC is still being picked up—so the value is higher!
This week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw cumulative net inflows of about 1.14 billion USD; in the past 9 trading days, total inflows have already exceeded 3 billion USD. Consistent spot capital is continuously absorbing sell pressure at high levels.
More importantly, this wave of inflows happened after BTC had already rebounded significantly. The higher the price, the more willing capital is to keep buying—this indicates that institutional demand remains strong. As long as the ETF doesn’t change direction, the market still has the confidence to grind higher.
9 days, 3 billion USD—that’s not just a one-day emotional impulse anymore.
This ETF “accumulation machine” keeps operating nonstop, and the BTC high-level supply will get locked up tighter and tighter!
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$BTC Warsh tonight once again smashed the “rate-cut fantasy” down by another layer!
The inflation data looks slightly better.
But the underlying trend hasn’t truly improved!
And the rate path deliberately doesn’t give the market a clear answer.
In the future, it may become even harder to guess what the Fed will do!
At Jackson Hole, Warsh said that although the last few rounds of PCE and CPI came in better than expected, they are still not enough to prove that the underlying inflation trend has seen a real improvement. The 2% target remains a hard constraint. As long as inflation hasn’t clearly and persistently moved back down toward the target, the Fed still has “work to do.”
More notably, this time he didn’t provide an explicit next-step rate path. Instead, he again emphasized a “quieter Fed,” hoping to reduce forward guidance so the market doesn’t spend every day staring at the central bank for the next trade.
For BTC, this means that future macro volatility may rely more on every single piece of data, rather than waiting for the Fed to hand out answers in advance.
Warsh didn’t directly call for rate hikes, but he also didn’t send any friendly signals to the bulls.
In the future, every inflation print may directly become a switch for BTC’s volatility!
After Warsh reinforced concerns about inflation persistence at Jackson Hole, the market quickly re-priced the September rate path, with the probability of a rate hike rising to 43.5%. This shows that traders are starting to accept a reality: as long as inflation keeps staying elevated, the Fed will not easily hand out loosened conditions to risk assets.
For BTC, the most immediate pressure right now is Treasury yields and the US dollar. If the probability of a rate hike keeps climbing, the high-beta assets that were previously lifted on liquidity expectations will face pressure first, and longs near 81K may also face more obvious profit-taking.
Warsh didn’t give bulls any dovish relief—instead, he added another hawkish card to the table.
43.5% isn’t yet out of control, but if it moves higher again, BTC tonight could see a fierce deleveraging round!
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$BTC Warsh Tonight this knife is clearly more hawkish!
Inflation is improving, but the stickiness hasn’t gone away.
The 2% target is nowhere near giving an inch!
Economic data also hasn’t provided a reason to cut rates.
The market wants easing, but it probably has to keep waiting and enduring!
At Jackson Hole, Warsh clearly emphasized that if inflation can’t keep sliding persistently back toward the 2% target, the Fed will still have “work to do.” He didn’t lay out a specific schedule for rate hikes, but he remains cautious about whether current financial conditions are tight enough—this kind of stance is hawkish even relative to what the market expects neutrality to look like.
Meanwhile, U.S. consumption, employment, and investment remain resilient, and the economy has not yet shown any obvious cracks from high interest rates. For the market, this means the bar for a rate cut remains very high; and even later on, as long as inflation continues to stay sticky, further tightening won’t be fully off the table.
The dovish signals that bulls most wanted to hear tonight basically didn’t arrive.
If yields keep pushing higher, the BTC that just broke above 81K will soon face a real stress test!
$BTC Fed hawkish pressure is still intense—let’s go after the market!
Hammack’s year-end inflation forecast is still 3%.
There’s still a clear gap from the 2% target!
The risk of keeping interest rates high for longer hasn’t disappeared.
Warsh’s comments tonight are even more critical!
Hammack expects U.S. inflation to remain around 3% by the end of this year, well above the Fed’s 2% target. This figure shows that inflation persistence is still very strong. For the market to quickly see a full loosening of monetary policy, the difficulty is still quite high.
For Crypto, the key is still U.S. Treasury yields and rate expectations. If inflation can’t come down, the risk of further rate hikes will be hard to completely eliminate. But as long as Warsh tonight doesn’t further reinforce hawkishness, the market may still trade the “worse than expected, not as bad” expectation gap.
Inflation is still stuck at 3%—tonight the market’s biggest fear is Warsh delivering another blow.
If he’s instead softer than expected, BTC’s high-level long positions could immediately regain the momentum!
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$ETH A giant whale did something big right before Warsh’s speech!
Single-entry long positions are nearing $80 million.
The timing is right before Jackson Hole!
The market is about to enter a high-volatility window.
This position clearly bets on a direction!
On-chain data shows that a giant whale opened an ETH long position worth nearly $80 million before Kevin Warsh’s speech. This timing is extremely sensitive, because tonight the market is most focused on the interest-rate path and Warsh’s stance on inflation. Any dovish signal could first push down yields, then lift risk assets.
But these kinds of massive positions don’t necessarily mean “he definitely knows insider information.” More likely, it’s about jumping on an expectation gap. What’s really interesting is that with so much capital, someone is willing to press a long position directly ahead of an event—meaning at least someone is willing to pay up early for upside volatility in ETH.
$80 million is no longer a test trade—it’s a direct statement slammed onto the order book.
If Warsh is even slightly softer, this whale could be one of the people igniting things early!
$BTC French listed companies are once again doing heavy financing to buy coins!
Capital B raises another €21 million.
Adam Back and TOBAM continue to lead the investment!
The warrants could still bring an additional €135.8 million.
Europe’s Bitcoin Treasury for companies is far from extinguished!
Capital B has just announced that it has completed a €21 million financing round. The funds come from global institutional investors, including Adam Back and the French asset manager TOBAM. The core goal is to further accelerate its Bitcoin Treasury strategy. Based on the current exchange rate, this financing is roughly on the order of $23 million.
Even more aggressive: these accompanying warrants, if fully exercised in the future, could additionally generate about €135.8 million in funding—essentially leaving a large supply of ammunition for subsequent BTC purchases. Along the line of accumulating positions via corporate balance sheets, Europe is also continuing to step up.
23M is just the first tranche—there will be even larger funding channels afterward.
As long as the company’s Treasury keeps expanding, BTC spot holdings will continue to be locked up little by little!
$BTC ETF This accumulation phase has been going on for 9 straight days!
Total net inflows have surpassed $3 billion.
This is the longest streak of continuous inflows in the past 6 months!
On the latest day alone, another $242.3 million was pulled in.
The price is up to around 80K, and the capital still hasn’t stopped!
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days. This round of cumulative capital amounts to about $304 million. Looking only at the latest trading day, net inflows are still around $242.3 million. This shows it’s not just a one- or two-day sentiment spike, but a steady stream of spot ETF capital that has been building for nearly two weeks.
Even more interesting: this influx of funds has coincided with BTC recovering from the lows all the way to around 80K. The higher the price is pushed, the ETF continues to maintain net buying. As long as this capital line keeps running, the supply of shares sold at higher levels will keep getting absorbed.
9 days, $3 billion—this round of Wall Street is genuinely continuous restocking.
The ETF accumulation machine hasn’t stopped yet, and the upside space for BTC hasn’t been fully unlocked either!
$BTC The real big volatility window is coming tonight!
Warsh will officially speak at Jackson Hole.
Market expectations are actually already leaning neutral!
53% are betting on neutral, 31% on hawkish.
As long as it’s a bit softer than expected, Crypto could potentially run ahead first!
The latest survey shows that the market’s baseline expectations for Warsh tonight aren’t overly dovish: 53% think the speech will be neutral-leaning, 31% expect it to be hawkish-leaning, and only 7% are truly betting on a dovish outcome. At the same time, the probability of a rate hike in September is still around the 30% mark, which suggests the market has already left plenty of room for the idea that “higher rates last longer.”
That, in turn, leaves room for an expectations gap tonight. As long as Warsh doesn’t further reinforce rate hikes—even if it’s only slightly softer in tone than what the market expects—U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could first move lower, and stocks and Crypto are more likely to get a second round of momentum.
What the market really fears now isn’t dovishness, but suddenly being even more hawkish than the 31% hawkish expectation.
If Warsh holds back a little on the tough talk, BTC tonight still has a chance to really hammer an expectations gap!
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$BTC Tonight’s speech could directly hit the market hard!
Warsh will appear at Jackson Hole.
The talk will officially begin at 22:00 Beijing time!
The September rate-hike disagreement has been laid fully on the table.
A big wave of volatility in Crypto tonight is basically unavoidable!
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his Jackson Hole speech at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. What the market most wants to hear is his stance on inflation and the next interest-rate path. Currently, inflation is still above the 2% target, and some Fed officials have already publicly leaned toward continuing to raise rates. There is still a clear split in the market over whether September will keep rates unchanged.
If Warsh is clearly dovish, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields could have room to fall back, and high-beta assets like BTC are likely to surge first. If he continues to emphasize inflation risks and even leaves the door open for further hikes, Crypto—just having surged to high levels—could face a round of rapid deleveraging. What markets fear most right now is a vague statement; that’s when the market can end up beating both directions.
At 22:00 tonight, BTC’s real test begins.
With just one line from Warsh, it could determine whether 81K is the starting point—or a short-term ceiling!
American companies’ profits hit an all-time high—directly and aggressively!
Second-quarter profits surged to $4.83 trillion.
A single quarter jumped by $400.9 billion!
The increase is more than five times the previous quarter.
Wall Street’s earnings machine is still going crazy!
According to the latest U.S. data, the annualized rate of current corporate profits for the second quarter reached approximately $4.827 trillion, up by $400.9 billion from the first quarter; the first quarter’s increase was only $74.4 billion. Corporate earnings remain exceptionally strong despite a backdrop of slowing economic growth.
What’s even more intense: the share of after-tax profits in total value added by firms rose to about 19.4%, sitting at an all-time extremely high level. As long as profitability continues to hold up, the fundamentals for U.S. stocks with their lofty valuations can still carry them forward. What really needs attention is whether high interest rates will start to compress profit margins.
# U.S. corporate profits set a record high
The economy can cool down, but companies’ ability to make money is still driving new highs—aggressively.
As long as this pillar of profits doesn’t fall, U.S. stock bulls still have the confidence to push higher!
The dollar-devaluation trade has been reignited by funds.
Safe-haven assets are collectively reclaiming pricing power!
Since August, gold’s cumulative rise has already been close to 14%. This week on Monday, the price briefly surged to around $4,696, and then remained above $4,600.
Budget deficits, long-term debt pressure, sticky inflation, and concerns about U.S. dollar credibility have all been intensifying at the same time, and capital is starting to embrace gold—this scarce asset—again.
Even more worth watching: it’s not just gold moving up. Bitcoin is also rising in sync—the “currency devaluation trade” is returning to the center of the market. As long as the dollar and long-term interest rates continue to face pressure, the underlying logic for gold to keep strengthening remains intact.
$ETH BlackRock customers are starting to go on a shopping spree again!
Bought $130.22 million in a single day.
This ETH capital flow line continues to stay strong!
The higher the price goes, the more spot demand is still there.
Wall Street’s appetite for ETH hasn’t visibly gone down!
BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF customers’ latest purchase is about $130.22 million worth of ETH. Previously, BTC flows kept returning; now ETH is continuing to follow suit as well, suggesting that institutions are not only fixated on a single main track.
More importantly, ETH has already clearly rebounded from its low, yet ETF funds are still willing to accumulate at higher levels. As long as this spot buying momentum remains continuous, market expectations for ETH’s further catch-up rally and relative-strength recovery will keep heating up.
BTC sets the pace, and ETH starts taking over in full force.
With institutional money flowing into both lines at the same time, this crypto move is more likely to keep getting stronger and stronger!
$BTC BlackRock clients are getting in again and going hard!
Bought $277.6 million in a single day.
The funds around 80K haven’t stopped either!
The higher the price goes, the more spot demand is still there.
This round of accumulation on Wall Street still has a very strong pace!
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF clients’ latest purchase is about $277.6 million in BTC. What’s even more interesting is that this money shows up after BTC has already reached a high level, which suggests that institutional spot demand has not clearly cooled off because of the price rise.
Earlier, ETF inflows have continued for multiple days. Now BlackRock—this largest funding line—is continuing to push harder. As long as this kind of sustained buy-side pressure remains, the supply of shares thrown out at high levels will keep getting absorbed, and the ability to hold/cover above 80K will become increasingly crucial.
Big money didn’t wait for a pullback—rather, it’s still buying at these high levels.
As long as the ETF’s accumulation machine keeps running, there’s still room for imagination above BTC!
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$NVDA Wall Street Went Crazy With Nvidia Trades Last Night!
In the first 140 minutes after the open, trading volume hit $33.5 billion.
It directly surpassed the total daily trading volume from a normal full day!
The stock price ultimately surged 8.74%.
The AI main theme is back—and money is hitting it hard again!
After Nvidia’s earnings report, investor sentiment was completely ignited. Just 2 hours and 20 minutes after the open, the trading value had already reached $33.5 billion. In the end, the stock closed at $227.98, up 8.74% for the day. Its market value increased by roughly $442 billion in a single day.
At the core is still that AI demand hasn’t cooled down: quarterly revenue was $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year. Revenue from the data center business alone reached $89 billion. The market had previously been worried that AI CapEx might be topping out—this earnings report directly raised expectations again.
$BTC ETF This wave of funds is still aggressively flowing in!
Demand remains strong for the next 30 days.
IBIT net inflow has already surged to $2.7 billion!
FBTC and BTC are also steadily maintaining positive growth.
Entering for 8 consecutive trading days—this momentum hasn’t stopped yet!
Over the past 30 days, several major U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have continued to show clear net inflows. IBIT is about +$2.7 billion, FBT C about +$416.4 million, and BTC about +$298.9 million. More importantly, ETF inflows have sustained for 8 consecutive trading days, indicating that spot buying momentum is still holding.
Now BTC is trading near 80K, yet the funds haven’t noticeably cooled off just because the price has risen. As long as this ETF fund flow line remains strong, high-level supply will continue to be absorbed, and the market will find it easier to turn the 80K area from resistance into new support bit by bit.
The higher the price, the more ETFs keep absorbing.
As this spot funding line keeps going, BTC’s upside potential hasn’t finished yet!
Tap the card below and go straight at it!$ETH $SOL